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OPINION

Marwa’s Creative Fight Against Illicit Drugs in Nigeria.

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By; Jerome-Mario Utomi   

I still recall with vividness how in the year 2008, Nigeria and most Nigerians breathed a sigh of relief as the country was certified by the United States of America as cooperating in the anti-narcotic crusade for the eighth successive time in 2008, with George Bush, the former president of the United States of America, USA, noting that Nigeria had made significant progress in counter narcotics war and had effectively co-operated with the United States on drug-related and money laundering cases.

Although he (Bush) was saying the obvious, and, majority of Nigerians thought that the nation was winning the war against drug trafficking. But to Nigerians with critical minds, it was very doubtful; if the agency will sustain that record as nobody within the leadership did anything to institutionalize such performance.

Apart from this challenge, the agency then, also wore the crest of an underfunded body and was reputed as infamous in poor manpower it earned from a long period of neglect by previous administrations. And expected, such euphoria elicited by United States certification was short-lived as events and reports on the nation’s effort in this direction suddenly nosedived unabated.

This negative leadership trend continued until very recently when Former military administrator of Lagos and Borno states, Brig-Gen. Mohammed Buba Marwa (rtd), was in January 2021 appointed as the substantive Chairman/CEO of the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) by President Muhammadu Buhari. Before the appointment, Marwa had worked as Chairman, Presidential Advisory Committee for the Elimination of Drug Abuse (PACEDA) between 2018 and December 2020, along with others to develop a blueprint on how to end drug abuse in Nigeria.Today, I cannot categorically say that all is perfectly well for the nation in its efforts to liberate its citizens from trading on, consumption of or effects of illicit drugs, but looking  at the present instinct in the country, and exciting progress in this direction, particularly,  the recent declaration by the Chairman of the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA), Brig. Gen. Mohammed Buba Marwa(RTD) that N6 billion worth of drugs meant for insurgents was intercepted by the agency’s operatives at the Apapa Port in Lagos State, the situation explains  something new and different.

But before then, this piece will add context to the present discourse.

From available records, the fight against drug abuse in the country has been on for a very long time and backed by so many federal laws.

In fact, it dates back to as far back as 1935.  Some of the most important laws against the cultivation, trafficking, and abuse of illicit drugs in Nigeria are as follows. The Dangerous Drugs Ordinance of 1935 enacted by the British Colonial administration. The Indian hemp Decree No. 19 of 1966. The Indian hemp (Amendment) Decree No. 34 of 1979. The Indian Hemp (Amendment) Decree, and the Special Tribunal (Miscellaneous Offences) Decree No. 20 of 1984. The Special Tribunal (Miscellaneous Offences) (Amendment) Decree of 1986 and the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency Decree No. 48 of 1989 (as amended by Decree No.33 of 1990, Decree No 15 of 1992 and Decree No. 62 of 1999). These laws were harmonized as an Act of the parliament, CAP N30 Laws of the Federation of Nigeria (LFN) 2004. This Act established the NDLEA.

But regrettably, these legion of laws neither appreciably provided an effective and efficient strong source of solution to illicit consumption of drugs in the country ,  nor provided useful frameworks comprehensive enough to offer  legal solutions to the issues of drug trafficking or its enforcement.

However, presently, with Marwa’s leadership, the country has against all known logic become visibly unsafe for both illicit drug paddlers and consumers. It is no longer business as usual. Also characterizing Marwa’s administration as exemplary is his being integrated in approach. He is not class specific. His recent advocacy/enlightenment campaigns of school children about the harmful effects involving drug abuse and persistent emphasis that those seeking public offices in Nigeria go through harmful drug related tests are but perfect examples to this claim/assertion. 

Comparatively, like the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Goal 3 which is targeted at “ensuring healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages, even so has the NDLEA developed sustainable National Drug Control Master Plan (NDCMP)  that views illicit drugs from the perspective of public health and education issues while providing a balanced solution to the drug scourge.

Extensively, there are in fact more pragmatic reasons why the nation must join hands with the Buba Marwa led administration to stamp out the proliferation of illicit drugs in the country.

First is that many lives, going by commentaries have before been destroyed as a result of drugs. Many are in psychiatric wards. Many have died. So many have lost their jobs and many have lost their homes. Qualifying the development as a reality to worry about is that, according to the World Drug Report, released by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), .26 Jun 2019, stated that about 35 million people are estimated to suffer from drug use disorders and who require treatment services.

With this revelation, it is evident that consumption of drugs in amounts and methods not authorized by medical professionals has presently become the greatest killer of humanity. And perfectly characterize as correct the recent claim/ statement by President Muhammadu Buhari that the danger posed to the country by illicit drugs is worse than those of insurgency, banditry and other threats to the stability of the country. “Let me say that this war is more deadly than the insurgency we have in the Northeastern part of the country or the acts of banditry in the Northwest or the acts of kidnapping that transcends all the geopolitical zones of this country, because it is a war that is destroying three generations, because I’ve seen clips of where grandparents are on drugs, parents are on drugs, and by extension, their wards, their children are on drugs’.

That is not the only danger.

A 2018 survey report on drug use in Nigeria by the National Survey on Drug Use and Health conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Centre for Research and Information on Substance Abuse (CRISA) with technical support from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), and funded by the European Union (EU) under the 10th European Development Fund (EDF) in, “Response to Drugs and Related Organized Crime in Nigeria, among other things observed; that  the past year prevalence of any drug use in Nigeria is estimated at 14.4 per cent or 14.3 million people aged between 15 and 64 year and high when compared with the 2016 global annual prevalence of any drug use of 5.6 per cent among the adult population.

In the same vein, World Drug Report 2018 indicated also that psychoactive substances excluding alcohol, overall was higher among men in Nigeria, Drug users the report added was most common among those who were between the ages of 25 and 39 years, while the rates of past year use were lowest among those who were below 24 years of age. Cannabis was the most commonly used drug followed by opioids, mainly the non-medical use of prescription opioids and cough syrup.

This is not by any means a good commentary. Yet, the situation says something else.

It was also revealed that living with an active drug abuser –for example, a husband automatically makes the wife a passive substance abuser, of which the adverse effect resulting from such an arrangement in most cases appears more pronounced on the passive abuser.

Away from impact to the physical dependence, mountain of evidence suggests that the person using a drug over a period time would have developed an intense reliance on drugs, often to avoid difficult withdrawal symptoms. The person will often crave (strong desire) to use the drugs despite the damaging consequences to their physical, mental and social wellbeing. Drug users can also experience psychological dependence in which they believe it is necessary to use a drug to function sometimes just at social gatherings or all the time.

This challenge from what experts are saying is further nourished by our not being ready as a nation to confront the underlying cause(s) of drug dependency and other associated behaviours. Our unwillingness to collectively assist the abusers to focus on un-learning such negative behaviours and in its place develop the required skills and positive attitudes to achieve a drug-free society as currently preached the world over exacerbates the challenge.

Very regrettably, in abandoning this responsibility, one fact we fail to remember is that drug dependence is not based on a personal weakness or lack of morals on the part of the abuser but a chronic relapsing medical condition- a reality that, in my opinion, qualifies these people for our love and not vilification or abandonment.

For a better understanding of the plights of the abusers, we must begin to imagine what it would look like if those drug abusers were to be from our families. We can imagine ourselves participating in the funerals of our dear ones that passed on, no thanks to substance abuse.Sincerely, our failure to love and care for these drug addicts in our society, make us more socially sick than the abusers.But then, Nigerians must pray and support Mohammed Buba Marwa’s quest to defeat proliferation of illicit drugs in Nigeria.

Utomi is the Programme Coordinator (Media and Public Policy), Social and Economic Justice Advocacy (SEJA), Lagos.

OPINION

The Battle Against Inflation the CBN is Losing.

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By Nick Agule

Video: These are cows after eating crops on a farm are crossing the highway between Nasarawa and Benue States to continue eating up crops on farms on the other side of the road. This is a major reason for food shortage in Nigeria at the moment which is spiking food prices.

We are feeding animals at the expense of humans!

But when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) meets Tomorrow and next – 25th & 26th March 2024 – the members are likely to hike interest rates because they think food inflation in Nigeria is being caused by excess liquidity (too much money supply) in the economy and thus there is too much demand for food.

The textbook solution in a situation such as they think is to tighten money supply by increasing interest rates which will then make savings rates more attractive and thus people will prefer to save instead of consumption. The more they save, the more the liquidity is mopped up which then slows down inflation.

However, the MPC members seem to be oblivious of structural issues that are spiking food prices in Nigeria which have nothing to do with excess liquidity as follows:

Only 2.5% of Nigeria’s arable land is cultivated (figures provided by President Buhari in 2021). This means we have basically not yet started serious industrial agriculture in Nigeria.

The reason for the poor statistic of cultivation above is because farming in Nigeria is largely by manual labour and not much food can be produced without mechanisation and improved seedlings with fertiliser and other modern farming inputs.

Even the 2.5% cultivation is no longer happening because a large number of farmers have been driven away from their farms into IDP camps killer herdsmen and sundry bandits.

In areas where farming is still happening, the cows come and eat the crops as the video shows. 

 There is huge cost-push inflation in imported food prices because of the exchange rate crisis thus resulting in less food being imported.

All the factors above have contributed to low food output and availability in Nigeria.

From rudimentary economics, prices of commodities are determined by the forces of DEMAND and SUPPLY. But it appears that the MPC members think it’s only demand that is spiking inflation in Nigeria and they are not giving any consideration to supply deficits as a causative factor for inflation as well. Because dealing with supply deficit requires interest rates to the cut so that producers can access cheap credit to produce more! So far, the MPC is not thinking about this. When you increase interest rates in a stagflation (low output, low employment and high inflation), it makes the situation worse!

And to show the MPC is getting something wrong, the more MPR they hike, the more inflation goes up! In the last MPC meeting on the 26/27th February, inflation rate was 29.9% with food inflation at 35.41%. The MPC increased the MPR from 18.75% to 22.75% to fight this inflation. But instead of lowering, the inflation called their bluff and rose to 31.7% with food inflation spiking to 37.92%. Food inflation does not respond to interest rates hikes because even if interest rates are hiked to 100%, people will not save, they must buy food to feed their families!

If the MPC spikes the interest rate at this week’s meeting, the result can only be one way – inflation will spike further because this inflation is not demand-pull!

Going through the minutes of the last meeting of the MPC, there is a sense that the MPC members are spiking interest rate to equate inflation rate or interest rate to go higher than inflation rate. Members think this is what will attract foreign direct investments. But if we pay high interest rates on dollar funds we take in, where are we going to commit such funds and earn high enough returns to pay the interest and still make a profit? If Nigerian banks take deposits at high interest rates, where can they lend to earn enough to pay the interest rate and other costs? The monies will just be sitting in the banks! And here the MPC increased the CRR to 45% instead of lowering it to ensure lending to an economy screaming for growth!

It is high time now for the MPC members to change direction. There is no point pushing interest rates to go higher than inflation rate, this will hurt the economy even more. The MPC will better begin to cut rates so that the economy will start experiencing high growth that will eventually lower the inflation rate. This will be made possible if the MPC members rethink their conclusion that Nigeria’s inflation is resultant from excess liquidity in the system! MPC members must give due consideration to the other causative factors of inflation too.

Also, it is high time now for the coordinating minister of the economy to begin holding joint economic policy meetings of the monetary policy and fiscal policy authorities because the MPC alone cannot control inflation and boost output without the fiscal authorities also coming to the table and working together in harmony and with unity of purpose.

Bottomline is that it will be a bad day this week if the MPR is further hiked.  

Twitter: @NickAgule

Email: nick.agule@yahoo.co.uk

Facebook: Nick Agule, FCA

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OPINION

Edo, Ondo 2024 Reechoes Bitter Tribal Politics of 2023 Elections

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Mr Godwin Obaseki
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By Ehichioya Ezomon

In 2020, Edo State Governor Godwin Obaseki fought the political battle of his life for a second term in office. Midyear, he’s disqualified by the National Working Committee (NWC) of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), headed by Senator and former Governor Adams Oshiomhole as then national chairman.

In 2016, Oshiomhole had “imposed and installed” Obaseki as his successor.

But the godfather-godson relationship didn’t last, as Obaseki decried Oshiomhole’s “godfatherism,” and connived to have him suspended from his ward in Etsako West Local Government Area of Edo North, and sacked by the courts as APC’s chairman.

Oshiomhole denying Obaseki a re-election ticket prompted Obaseki to defect to opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which granted him automatic ticket, with which he contested and won the September 2020 election.

But in the course of the campaigns, former Lagos State Governor and acclaimed “National Leader” of the APC, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu (now President of Nigeria) called on the people of Edo State to vote for the APC candidate, Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, who’s chaperoned by Tinubu’s close ally, Comrade Oshiomhole.

It’s a wrong political move at a time Obaseki, his campaign and supporters alleged – with no concrete evidence, and yet believable – that Oshiomhole had carried out a script written by Tinubu, to disqualify Obaseki from the APC governorship primary.

When Obaseki’s still in the APC, he led a group of governors and party chieftains to Tinubu’s Bourdillon road home in Ikoyi, Lagos, to solicit his assistance to settle the feud between him and Oshiomhole, and Tinubu, short of shunning the parley, remained noncommittal, thus sending signals that he sided with Oshiomhole’s antic to deny Obaseki a second term ticket.

The backlash from Edo people against Oshiomhole for “instigating” disqualification of Obaseki from the APC primary, was also extended to Tinubu for his alleged “interference in Edo politics,” and hence the coinage: “Edo no be Lagos” – a reference to Tinubu’s stranglehold of politics of Lagos State.

So, “Edo no be Lagos” became an anthem, and the rallying cry for the Obaseki campaign, members and supporters of the PDP, and Edolites across party lines, who felt Oshiomhole (and Tinubu) committed a “political sacrilege” by denying a return ticket to Obaseki whom he’d backed for governor in 2016.

Thus, the Obaseki campaign adopted three strategies that worked for the governor’s re-election without a referendum on his “achievements” from 2016 to 2020: Deploy Oshiomhole’s “betrayal of Edo people” – particularly the Binis of Edo South, where Obaseki hails from; replay Oshiomhole’s campaign of calumny against Pastor Ize-Iyamu during the 2016 election, to denigrate and demarket him, and promote Obaseki’s candidacy that Oshiomhole sponsored; and harp on Tinubu’s “interference” in Edo politics.

Now to the 2024 governorship election in Edo State where another version of “Edo no be Lagos” or “Edo no be Yorubaland” – with a ting of tribalism – has emerged in the lead-up to the September 21 poll. But first, recall that the 2023 General Election in Lagos State witnessed an intense recline to tribal politics between the Yoruba and Igbo – the one trying to stave off alleged plans by the other to dominate Lagos politics by declaring the state as “a no man’s land” to be “captured” in the 2023 elections.

True to the fears of the Yoruba, the presidential candidate of Labour Party (LP) and former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi defeated Tinubu in his Lagos homestead in the February 25, 2023, poll. So, ahead of the following March 18 governorship election, alarmed conservative Yoruba resorted to whipping up tribal sentiments, telling liberal Yoruba that the intention of the Igbo wasn’t just to takeover Lagos – where they’ve an unverified 5m population – but also to bring the entire South-West geopolitical zone under Igbo domination.

Besides calling for “Yoruba Ronu” (‘Yoruba, Think’) – a phrase used by the legendary Hubert Ogunde “in his famous 1964 play,” warning about intra-ethnic divide among politicians in Yorubaland that could give way to external infiltration – the agitation for “Yorubaland for the Yoruba” culminated in rallying for Yoruba nationalism and supremacy in Yorubaland.

As noted by Yusuf Omotayo in a piece, “The True Meaning of ‘Yoruba Ronu,’” first published in The Atlantic of July 10, 2023, “Yoruba Ronu has recently become the anchor on which Yoruba politicians have championed calls for fanatic support. The original core message of the phrase, however, is unity rather than ethnic disrespect and Yoruba supremacy.”

The Yoruba agitators backed up their alleged “Igbo Agenda” with declarative statements and videos issued and posted by social media influencers, calling on members of the “Obidients Movement” – the mass of voters who backed Obi’s presidential run – to “vote massively” on March 18, for the LP to takeover Lagos State.

And for good (or bad) measure, the LP featured as its governorship candidate Gbadebo (Chinedu) Rhodes-Vivor, who’s a Yoruba father and Igbo mother and wife – and whose utterances and actions, even on the campaign trail, tended to play up his affinity to Igbo more than to his Yoruba heritage.

The Yoruba agitators dug into Mr Rhodes-Vivor’s social media posts – which some alleged were manipulated – in which he backed activities of the proscribed Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) – a group fighting for secession from Nigeria; his lead participation in the October 20, 2020, #Endsars violent and bloody protests in Lagos; and his intention, if elected governor, to dethrone the Oba of Lagos, and install an Igbo as replacement, declare an annual “Igbo Day” for Igbo to celebrate their traditional and cultural heritage, business acumen and dominance of the commercial and political affairs of Lagos, and give Igbo unfettered access to control all markets and commercial places in Lagos State.

These and other issues worked against the LP and Rhodes-Vivor’s ambition on poll day, giving the ruling APC and the amiable but assailed Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu a landslide victory, and crowning the “Yorubaland for Yoruba” agitators’ fierce campaign for “Yoruba Ronu” with defeat of the “Igbo campaigners” of “Na we build Lagos, na we own Lagos.”

Meanwhile – and sadly – the tribal politics of 2023 elections has resurrected in Edo and Ondo 2024 elections. In Edo, the LP candidate and former President of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA), Mr Olumide Osaigbovo Akpata, had to do a hit music in Bini, to prove that he’s a bona fide “son-of-the-soil” from the prominent family of the Akpatas of Benin Kingdom.

Decked in traditional attire, Mr Akpata leads “the cultural troupe” in a Bini song and graceful dancesteps to trace his paternal and maternal roots to ages, and pleads with Edo people that he isn’t a stranger or a Yoruba, as his political traducers want to portray him in the intense mobilisation for the LP primary, and the governorship poll on September 21.

Amid lingering doubts as to Akpata being “truly” Bini and Edo, a tweep (a user of Twitter) posted “an advisory” on X (formerly Twitter) for Igbo residents in Edo State not to dabble in the local politics of who the parties field for the governorship, but to mind their civic duty of voting for their preferred candidate.

This stirred instant reactions from Yoruba netizens (habitual or keen users of internet), who reasoned that the advisory was issued to Igbo residents in Edo State because the LP candidate’s middle name – Olumide – is Yoruba, and hence anathema to the Igbo.

The Yoruba say what’s sauce for the goose should be sauce for the gander. If Igbo supported Mr Rhodes-Vivor with a middle name of “Chinedu” and Igbo mother and wife for the LP governor in Lagos, why should Igbo steer clear of canvassing for Mr Akpata with a Yoruba name of “Olumide” as candidate of the LP in Edo State?

Similarly in the PDP in Edo State, governorship candidate Asue Ighodalo faces scrutiny as to his Esan roots from Ewohimi in Esan North-East of Edo Central. In 2023, Dr Ighodalo, a Lagos-based lawyer and industrialist associate of Governor Obaseki, reportedly hired “an interpreter” to convey his aspiration for governor to his ward members in Ewohimi. Now, critics query his “Edoness” for “growing up and working in Lagos, and marrying a Yoruba.”

In Ondo State, lawyer and veteran politician, Chief Olusola Oke, has a primary huddle for marrying an Igbo named “Nkem” as a second wife, who’s reportedly “very close” to Mrs Betty Anyanwu-Akeredolu, the Igbo wife of the late Governor Oluwarotimi Akeredolu (SAN), who died from a protracted ailment on December 27, 2023.

Accused of being an “Iron” First Lady with a domineering streak – and allegedly advancing the interests of Igbo to the detriment of the Yoruba in Ondo State – Mrs Akeredolu’s ethnic relationship with Mrs Oke may cause Mr Oke the primary ticket of the APC, and ultimately the governorship if the agitators for “Yorubaland for Yoruba” deploy “Yoruba Ronu” in the APC yet-to-be-scheduled April primary for the November 16 election in the state.

This is the stage we’re in Nigeria’s bitter politics, in which tribe and state of origin of spouses and their parents, living permanently or for a considerable length of time in their states of origin, and ability to speak fluently the local language, and imbibe the traditional and cultural nuances of the people, now determine one’s ambition for elective political position(s).

It’s happened in Lagos, in the case of Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivor failing the governorship in 2023 partly because – in the estimation of the conservative indigenous Yoruba – he’s not “Yoruba enough” for having Igbo mother and wife, and “displaying disdain” for Yoruba language, traditional and culture.

It also occurred in 2023 in Enugu State, where a resident of Ebonyi State origin was told by the locals that he couldn’t – as a “stranger” or “non-indigene” – become governor of Enugu. “A person from Ebonyi cannot be our governor in Enugu. God will not allow that” (to happen), one of the speakers – with members of the audience concurring – told the bewildered politician at a gathering to intimate the people about his governorship ambition, which ended thereafter!

On May 4, 2022, Senator Adeola Olamilekan (alias ‘Yayi’) (APC, Lagos West), gave in to emotions when his constituents in Ogun West gifted him nomination forms, to contest in the 2023 poll to represent the district. Pre-2015 general election when Chief Olamilekan wanted to represent Ogun West – his district of origin in Ogun State – there’s strong opposition that he wasn’t a Yewa man from the district. Some even claimed he’s from Ekiti State.

He’d to seek his political ambition in Lagos West (he’s Reps member from 2011 to 2015), which he won and represented from 2015 to 2023. But reportedly eying the governorship of Ogun State in 2027 that’s “zoned” to Ogun West, Olamilekan made attempts to switch from Lagos West to Ogun West, and met with the same resistance from APC members, three of whom filed a writ in court to stop him.

However, majority of his constituents – who’d heard about his political exploits in Lagos West – rallied for, and 71 of them purchased the nomination forms for him to contest in the primary and election, which he won, and now represents Ogun West in the 10th National Assembly.

There’re also instances of women, who weren’t allowed to vie for elective political offices by chieftains of parties in the states they’re married into, and asked to go look for slots in their states of origin. That’s how, for example, Mrs Daisy Ehanire Danjuma – wife of former Chief of Army Staff, and Founder and Chairman Emeritus of TY Danjuma Foundation, Gen. Theophilus Yakubu Danjuma (retd) – left Taraba, her state of marriage, to seek senatorial slot in Edo State and won in 2003 (PDP, Edo South).

Can this bitter tribal politics in Nigeria be reversed? It’s doubtful, as the 2023 general election that’s supposed to subsume the primeval cleavage actually accentuated it, as fears of domination by residents fueled anxiety and outrage among the local and indigenous peoples across many states of Nigeria!

Mr Ezomon, Journalist and Media Consultant, writes from Lagos, Nigeria.

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OPINION

Tinubu: The Choice between Fifth Columnists and Northern Traditional Rulers

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By Ayuba Ahmad

From Katsina, of all places, came a report the other day of little children protesting against the high rate of banditry and kidnapping in the state. The action was in response to the increasing wave of invasions of schools, kidnappings and, killings of children particularly in the north of the country.

With the seemingly unabating scenario, we may soon be witnessing replications of the Katsina children’s protests in other parts of the country in times ahead.

We have since had the experience of abduction of the breathtaking number of 287 children in Kaduna state and scores of others in Sokoto state barely a week after the unprecedented Katsina Children Protest.

There have been several reports as well, of protests by adults, against the deepening level of hunger in the land. The incidents have unfolded in Niger, Osun, Adamawa, Lagos, Kogi, Nasarawa and Kwara states among others. Beside the rising incidents of highway robbery especially targeted at trucks transiting food items and other basic essentials of life, are also the disturbing reports of looting of government stores, warehouses and silos of strategic reserves.

President Tinubu’s administration cannot afford to play the proverbial ostrich by burying its head in the sand in the face of the burgeoning infernos. As it is, those who have his ears at the corridors of power, paid aides, spin doctors, palace courtiers and jesters, appear incapable or are wilfully refusing to avail him with the correct pictures of the prevailing situation.

Under democratic and military political dispensations, people of southern Nigerian extractions, have at various times, held the highest political office in the country either as Head of State or President. Prominent examples are, Presidents Olusegun Obasanjo, Goodluck Jonathan and now, Bola Tinubu.  They have in between them, ruled over the affairs of the country longer than their northern compatriots since the start of the ongoing Fourth Republic.

This is in spite of the North’s superior population which in turn, confers on the region tremendous leverage in nationally conducted electoral contests. The region has however,  decided at several critical turns in the country’s political history, not to wantonly deploy this portent political advantage.Three of such historical instances will suffice to buttress this point.

In the June 1993 presidential election, the North overwhelmingly voted for late Chief MKO Abiola of the now defunct Social Democratic Party, SDP, against one of their own, late Alhaji Bashir Tofa of the National Republican Convention, NRC. That show of magnanimity was repeated in 1999 when Chief Olusegun Obasanjo ascended to the nation’s pinnacle of political power very largely due to the solid support he had in the cream of the elites and electorate of the North.

With the north giving President Tinubu 5 million of the 8 million votes that earned him victory in the 2023 presidential contest, there is no gainsaying which of the nation’s geopolitical divide deserves the garlands for the  feats of Tinubu and  of the APC in that year’s historic elections.

This piece, more or less a rejoinder, was triggered by a recent article titled: “From Palace to Politics, Fulani Emirs Mass Against Tinubu” by one Francis Ojo. Ojo’s article comes across as a voyage in a brazen exercise of hauling unprintable invectives  on the highly revered institutions and persons of the Sultan of Sokoto, His Eminence, Dr Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar III  and the Emir of Kano, His Highness Alhaji Aminu Ado Bayero.

In the warped perception of the author, the two royal fathers ought not to have lent their voices to those of the several other well-meaning leaders in the country,  in drawing the attention and accordingly, admonishing the President on the prevailing  poverty and attendant creeping hunger and, anger among the people.

Using the auspicious occasion of the visit of the nation’s First Lady, Senator Oluremi Tinubu to his Palace, Emir Aminu Ado Bayero, had made a passionate appeal on the President to adopt more effective and pragmatic solutions to the raging  hunger and starvation across the length and breadth of the country.

Though, the Emir acknowledged that the “crisis preceded this government”, he said, “the situation has however become more alarming and needs urgent attention.” According to him, “the government should come clean on this matter and talk to Nigerians in the language they would understand.”

Also speaking earlier at a forum of northern Emirs and Chiefs, His Eminence, Sultan Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar similarly drew attention of the President Tinubu’s administration to the stark reality and potential grim backlash of the heightening level of poverty and hunger.

The Sultan noted that, the prevailing air of restraint and quiet amongst the citizens was in large measure, due to the fact that “people have been talking to them.” According to him: “We have been talking to them…I pray to Almighty Allah that they will not wake up one day and say, ‘we no longer believe in you’. That would be the biggest problem.” 

In a show of appreciation for their courageous and wise commentary on the state of the nation, Sultan Sa’ad Abubakar and Emir Aminu Bayero have been extolled and celebrated by a broad-spectrum of enlightened, well-meaning citizens in all parts of the country. The encomiums are in appreciation of their  bringing the respected and weighty moral authority to bear at such a crucial and trying time such as the nation is presently going through.

On the other hand, in the warped, hate-tainted logic of Ojo, the matter-of-fact and fatherly counseling of the Sultan and the Emir were nothing but the “politics of the massing of Fulani Emirs against Tinubu.” To him, while the views of Emir Aminu Bayero translated to his “sending insults to Tinubu”, the Sultan on his part, was merely “sending his threats” to the President.

 An enlightened and urbane leader that he is, Tinubu would not, of course, be bought on such bunkum and balderdash.

In the course of his treacherous fabrications and twisting of facts, Ojo alleged that “northerners fanatically defended President Muhammadu Buhari all through his eight disastrous years in office.” In his view, the northerners, especially their leaders, do not; therefore, have the “moral justification to be criticizing President Tinubu’s administration which is barely eight months in office.” Nothing can be further from the truth.

More than any other groups and individuals, the likes of Professor Ango Abdullahi and Dr Hakeem Baba Ahmed, on the platform of the Northern Elders Forum, the fiery clerics, Sheikh Ahmed Abubakar Gumi and Bishop Mathew Kuka of the Sokoto Catholic Diocese were simply the most vociferous voices of  criticisms against unpopular government’s policies and programmes throughout the tenure of President Buhari.

Also, northern traditional leaders, the Sultan and significantly, the Emirs of Katsina and Daura, were unrelenting in calling attention of President Buhari to the abysmal state of insecurity and otter negative fall-outs of the policies and programmes of his administration.

Just as they opted for late MKO against Alhaji Tofa based on the former’s demonstrated traits of a philanthropist, his capacity and his  credentials as a Pan Nigerian leader, the North, in 2023 tilted toward Tinubu. Their going against his main challenger, a fellow northerner, Alhaji Abubakar Atiku was essentially because, Bola Ahmed Tinubu was seen as a much capable candidate.

Those now claiming Tinubu’s presidency as their exclusive preserve have conveniently, so soon in the day, forgotten that Tinubu lost the 2023 presidential polls in Lagos and Osun states which are the two states where, for very strong symbolic reasons, he should have had his best showing.

On the whole, it is so obvious that Ojo and his cohorts are  mere puppets, poor wretched lumpens that are unwittingly, serving as pawns in the manipulative hands of scheming puppeteers and, the Fifth Columnists. The ultimate goal of the masquerades behind the masks, is a vicious and cynical agenda aimed at the very heart of the President. The Year 2027 is  the visible object of their schemes, machinations and poisoned darts.

President Bola Tinubu should be grateful to Sultan Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar and Emir Aminu Ado Bayero for telling him the truth that his aides will not avail him with. He is also very importantly, to be wary of the Fifth Columnists, the Janus-faced people who only profess loyalty and affection but are in truth, his very worst enemies.

Ayuba Ahmad is a Kaduna-based Public Affairs Commentator.

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