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OPINION

Nigeria’s Road to Zimbabwe With Money Printing

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By Nick Agule
Within the last week a war of words has ensued over the management of the Nigerian economy with Gov Obaseki of Edo State firing the first salvo by accusing the FG of the catastrophic management of economy alleging that the FG is printing money to fund federal allocations.
Nigeria’s Finance Minister Mrs Zainab Ahmed fired back in these words:
“The issue that was raised by the Edo State Governor, for me, is very sad because it is not a fact.

What we distribute at FAAC is revenue that is generated and in fact, distribution of revenue is a public information.
We publish revenue generated by FIRS, the Customs and the NNPC and we distribute at FAAC. So, it is not true to say we printed money to distribute at FAAC.
It is not true”.
Gov Obaseki returned fire that as an investment banker he stands by his words. This is how he put his rebuttal of the statement issued by the Finance Minister:
“The Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Mrs. Zainab Ahmed should rally Nigerians to stem the obvious fiscal slide facing our country. Rather than play the Ostrich, we urge the government to take urgent steps to end the current monetary rascality, so as to prevent the prevailing economic challenge from degenerating further. We believe it is imperative to approach the Nigerian project with all sense of responsibility and commitment and not play to the gallery because ultimately, time shall be the judge of us all.”
It became clear that between Gov Obaseki and the Finance Minister, one person was not telling the truth given that their views were diametrically opposed.
All this while as the crossfire raged, the CBN Gov was mute until he was captured on camera issuing threats to Gov Obaseki and other Govs who were bailed out in 2015/16 that recovery action will begin immediately against them if they don’t stop accusing the Govt of printing money! Instructively the CBN Gov did not outrightly deny that the Govt is printing money but did not concede either.
As pressure mounted on the FG specifically on the Finance Minister and the CBN Gov to come clean to Nigerians on what is actually going on, the CBN Gov finally caved in and conceded that Nigeria is printing money in a tweet issued on Friday, 16 April 2021 in the following words:
“The concept of printing of money is about lending money and that is our job…It will be irresponsible for the CBN or any Central Bank or Fed to stand idle and refuse to support its government at a time like this.”
WHAT IS PRINTING OF MONEY
Now that the FG has conceded that they are indeed printing money, let us therefore examine what this means from a layman’s point of view and the impact on our economy. 
The CBN prints two types of money:1. Physical money – this is the bank notes and coins we use in buying and selling or saving at home. It’s also called cash.
2. Digital money – this is money in our bank account.Thus you can have N1m with N100k in cash (physical) at home and N900k in your bank account (digital).
The printing of money in dispute here is the digital money not the physical cash. When Central Banks print digital money it is called Quantitative Easing (QE).
WHAT IS QE?
QE is a monetary policy tool that central banks use to inject money directly into the economy. So let us say the FG account at the CBN has a balance of N500 billion deposited by the revenue generation agencies of Govt such as the FIRS, DPR, NNPC, Customs etc. But this money is not enough for Govt to spend so the Govt asks the CBN to print money. The CBN simply credits Govt’s account with say N300 billion thus the balance in the Govt account is now N800 billion which Govt will now spend. 
To be clear, there is nothing wrong with using QE. Govts all over the world use QE to jumpstart their economies. The US, UK etc Govts used QE in the 2008 economic crash and even more recently in the pandemic hit economies. So if QE is a known, tested and tried monetary economic policy tool, why was the Govt of Nigeria ashamed to disclose to the citizens that it was using QE? And even when they were exposed by Gov Obaseki, why was the Govt still denying until they were forced to concede? 
The plausible answer is that Nigeria was making the wrong use of QE. 
There are 2 halves to QE which are printing the money and using the printed money, if you don’t get the balance right then QE instead of helping to jumpstart the economy rather ruins it:1. Printing the money – by crediting the account of Govt at the CBN with money the Govt did not earn. It is just like you own a bank and you have an account with the bank but did not have money to spend, so you just call the MD of the bank and ask him to credit your account with N1 billion and you immediately see an alert of N1 billion and begin to pay your bills! This is the same thing the CBN is doing for the FG! This is one half of QE. 
2. The 2nd half of QE is how the money is spent. For QE to be effective, there are only restricted ways the Govt can spend the money on. This is because monies earned by Govt from economic activity is backed up with output. So the oil companies must produce oil for DPR to earn money. Oil must be sold for NNPC to earn money. Imports must be made before customs earn revenue. Companies must pay taxes for FIRS to earn money. All these monies are coming from output based economic activities. The difference with QE money is that it is not backed up with output, Govt just increases money supply by fiat and thus it’s a timebomb and if mishandled it will blow off the economy! 
To avoid the QE timebomb from exploding on the economy, traditionally the Govts spend QE money in very restricted ways which include:
a. Buy back bonds – bonds are Govt’s debt instruments used in managing the economy. For instance, if there is high inflation (prices are rising because too much money is chasing too few goods/services), Govt in a bid to reduce the inflation will issue bonds. Those who buy the bonds give Govt money and hold the bonds which attract interest payments from Govt. Thus by Govt mopping money from people’s (individuals and companies) pockets, there is less money to spend and the less money that chases goods/services will result in price drop and thus inflation is contained. The reverse is the case when the economy is down and the Govt wants to boost it. The Govt uses the money from QE to buy back the bonds. So bond holders will surrender the bonds back to Govt and collect their money back. With more money in people’s pockets, they buy more goods/services and this will encourage manufacturers and businesses offering services to produce more to meet up with the demand. The greater output means prices drop as more goods/services are now in the market! The economy is thus brought back to life!
b. Bail out the struggling productive sector of the economy – here the Govt uses the money printed by QE to bail out ailing industries suffering from the downtime in the economy so that with the new cash these industries will fund working capital to bounce back to business and boost their production. A boost in production means more jobs will be created as more factories reopen and service centres return back to life. The economy will then be jumpstarted back to life with increased output and jobs! The US for example used QE to bail out the banks, the auto industry etc during the crash of 2008 and Joe Biden has announced an infrastructure plan of $2 trn are some examples of Govts’ use of QE.
So why was the Nigerian Govt ashamed to admit they were using QE? Does it mean the Finance Minister was not aware of the sources of inflow into the federation account upon which she presides by saying the money was from the FIRS, NNPC, Customs etc and not from QE? Or was she fully aware that the federation account was being funded by QE but set out to deceive Nigerians and pull wool over faces? Either option does not look good on the Finance Minister. 
The plausible reasons the Govt was ashamed to admit the use of QE is because while they are printing digital money which is the 1st half of QE, they are totally mismanaging the 2nd half because Govt is neither buying back bonds nor bailing out ailing industries with QE. Instead Govt is sharing the money to the 3 tiers/arms of Govt. And we know that the FG, States & LGs are not using the QE to buy bonds or bail out the ailing industries. The States and LGs are not even paying workers! Huge part of these monies end up being looted!
THE CATASTROPHE OF MISMANAGING QE
Let me illustrate what happens when QE is managed well and when it is mismanaged as follows:1. If QE is used rightly – it is a veritable economic management tool that jumpstarts comatose economies back to life. So let us say our economy produces 1,000 yams and money supply is N100,000, all the money will buy all the yams at N100 per tuber. Now if Govt adopts QE and prints N900,000 so that money supply is now N1 million and Govt uses the money to boost the agricultural sector by clearing the land, buying farm equipment and building processing plants, there will be a sharp rise in output to 20,000 yams. N1m will buy 20,000 yams at N50 per yam so price has crashed (inflation tamed) and jobs created because the workforce that will produce 20,000 yams will be more than the one that produced 1,000 yams! This is the beauty of QE when used for economic growth!
2. However and tragically too, if QE is mismanaged, it spells a death sentence to an economy. Nigeria is mismanaging QE by distributing it to the 3 tiers/arms of Govt. These Govts are neither buying back bonds nor bailing out industries. The money is not committed to infrastructure either. Instead the money is used for consumption with a huge chunk looted into the private pockets of those with access to the treasury. This portends danger to the Nigerian economy because the scenario above is reversed in the case of the Nigerian economy. 
Let us say that our economy produces 1,000 yams. Money supply was N100,000. All the money used in buying all the yams, a tuber of yam will cost N100. Let us say that through QE money supply has increased to N1,000,000 without an increase in the quantity of yams produced, it means a tuber of yam will cost N1,000. As Govt continues to print money without commensurate increase in output of goods/services, prices will continue to rise until one day you will need a bag to carry the money to buy a tuber of yam! This is what happened to Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwe’s currency where at a point one needed 35 million Zim dollars to buy a loaf of bread!!! And the shops were even empty as not goods were being produced! This is where Nigeria is heading if the Govt continues on the trajectory they are on right now of printing money without boosting output. Already the impact of the mismanagement of QE is showing with Nigeria’s annual inflation reported to have climbed to a more than four-year high in March 2021, rising 82 basis points from a month earlier to 18.17%. Notably food inflation rose to 22.95% which is making it increasingly impossible for families to feed their children!!!
SOLUTION TO NIGERIA’S ECONOMY
Constructive criticism is the one that comes with viable suggested solutions. When individuals or organisations are struggling financially, there are two ways open to them to drive out of the economic jam! First is to reduce cost and secondly is to increase revenue. This is like a double dose of vaccine to give Govt a fighting chance against infection of financial troubles. Therefore the following are the top 5 suggested economic management tools that are available to the Nigerian Govt to adopt to jumpstart the economy:1. Reduction in cost of governance – The Nigerian Govt must take immediate action to reduce the cost of governance. The Orosanye Committee which turned in an 800-page report with far-reaching recommendations on how Govt will reduce cost of governance must be immediately given full implementation. The Committee recommended the MDAs that should be scraped, those to be merged and those to become self-funding, thereby freeing funds for the much-needed capital projects across the country. The Committee also recommended the discontinuance of government funding of professional bodies and councils. Govt expenditure on things like sponsorship of pilgrimages must also be stopped immediately. The salaries of legislators, ministers and other top functionaries of Govt must be scaled down as with their convoys and other pecks of office. Govt must implement full e-govt to cut down on costs of travels, printing etc. Efficiencies in procurement activity must be generated to obtain best value for the least cost etc.
2. Taxation of the rich – Nigeria is a country where the billionaires don’t pay taxes. All the market women, okada riders, farmers, artisans etc are made to pay taxes daily. Employees who are captured under PAYE also pay taxes monthly. The Billionaires with private jets are paying little or nothing. The FG at the highest level must summon all the billionaires in Nigeria to a meeting in the Villa and ask them nicely to go and pay their taxes else there will be enforcement action. This step alone which only requires an investment of 30 minutes of the President’s time will shore up Nigeria’s revenue by at least N5 trn!
3. Stop the $1.5 billion PH refinery repair – Govt must stop immediately the planned rehabilitation of the PH refinery with a sum of $1.5 billion. Knowing that Govt projects are never delivered within budget, this rehabilitation may end up costing Nigeria $3-5 billion! The refinery can be sold as scrap for $1 (one dollar) to allow the buyers to bring in $1.5 billion to repair it. Govt must then convert the $1.5 billion into N570 billion (at N380/$) and invest the full money into agriculture in all the 774 LGs in Nigeria. N570 billion is N736 million for each of the 774 LGs in Nigeria. If Govt sinks N736 million into agriculture in every LG in Nigeria, so much food and cash crops will be produced, there will be plenty of jobs for the teeming youths too. Thus the economy will be jumpstarted and begin to grow astronomically as an output based economy and not QE which is like steroids!!!.
4. Power – it is a shame that Nigeria as a nation well-endowed with one of the world’s richest deposits of gas reserves, takes pains to produce the gas and then sets the gas on fire instead of harnessing it for electricity generation. Qatar a country with 2.8 million people is generating 8,500 MW of electricity and Nigeria a country with 200 million people is generating only 4,000 MW of electricity. The minimum electricity generation required to support the Nigerian economy is 100,000 MW!!! Thus the huge power supply gap in Nigeria can never jumpstart the economy no matter the economic policies we put in place and no matter the qualification/experience of the economic managers we appoint. QE will not help an economy that is this abysmally poorly powered with electricity! The FG must immediately read the riot act to the oil companies to stop flaring Nigeria’s gas else they must shut down oil production. Govt must also take immediate steps to fully privatise the power sector to allow for investments to boost power supply and close the electricity gap!
5. Rail – no economy will do well with the poor transport infrastructure that is obtained in Nigeria. The roads are not motorable but most importantly there is no rail transport in Nigeria. There is no reason not to have all the 36 capitals connected by rail today just for a start! The FG must take immediate steps to fully privatise the rail sector to allow investments to build and operate rail transportation to link all the cities, towns and villages in Nigeria. This will be a huge boost to the economy by making the movement of goods and people less cumbersome and far cheaper across the nation. It will also create millions of well paying and sustainable jobs for the teeming population of our unemployed youths.
NIGERIA’S ECONOMY MUST BE SAVED!!!
If the FG follows the suggested solutions, the Nigerian economy will begin to explain astronomical growth and this will be real growth and not steroids which QE is. But if the Govt continues on the trajectory of printing money (QE) without output backed, we will be sure on the road to Zimbabwe and a catastrophic end to our economy. This must be avoided at all costs!!!

OPINION

The Battle Against Inflation the CBN is Losing.

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By Nick Agule

Video: These are cows after eating crops on a farm are crossing the highway between Nasarawa and Benue States to continue eating up crops on farms on the other side of the road. This is a major reason for food shortage in Nigeria at the moment which is spiking food prices.

We are feeding animals at the expense of humans!

But when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) meets Tomorrow and next – 25th & 26th March 2024 – the members are likely to hike interest rates because they think food inflation in Nigeria is being caused by excess liquidity (too much money supply) in the economy and thus there is too much demand for food.

The textbook solution in a situation such as they think is to tighten money supply by increasing interest rates which will then make savings rates more attractive and thus people will prefer to save instead of consumption. The more they save, the more the liquidity is mopped up which then slows down inflation.

However, the MPC members seem to be oblivious of structural issues that are spiking food prices in Nigeria which have nothing to do with excess liquidity as follows:

Only 2.5% of Nigeria’s arable land is cultivated (figures provided by President Buhari in 2021). This means we have basically not yet started serious industrial agriculture in Nigeria.

The reason for the poor statistic of cultivation above is because farming in Nigeria is largely by manual labour and not much food can be produced without mechanisation and improved seedlings with fertiliser and other modern farming inputs.

Even the 2.5% cultivation is no longer happening because a large number of farmers have been driven away from their farms into IDP camps killer herdsmen and sundry bandits.

In areas where farming is still happening, the cows come and eat the crops as the video shows. 

 There is huge cost-push inflation in imported food prices because of the exchange rate crisis thus resulting in less food being imported.

All the factors above have contributed to low food output and availability in Nigeria.

From rudimentary economics, prices of commodities are determined by the forces of DEMAND and SUPPLY. But it appears that the MPC members think it’s only demand that is spiking inflation in Nigeria and they are not giving any consideration to supply deficits as a causative factor for inflation as well. Because dealing with supply deficit requires interest rates to the cut so that producers can access cheap credit to produce more! So far, the MPC is not thinking about this. When you increase interest rates in a stagflation (low output, low employment and high inflation), it makes the situation worse!

And to show the MPC is getting something wrong, the more MPR they hike, the more inflation goes up! In the last MPC meeting on the 26/27th February, inflation rate was 29.9% with food inflation at 35.41%. The MPC increased the MPR from 18.75% to 22.75% to fight this inflation. But instead of lowering, the inflation called their bluff and rose to 31.7% with food inflation spiking to 37.92%. Food inflation does not respond to interest rates hikes because even if interest rates are hiked to 100%, people will not save, they must buy food to feed their families!

If the MPC spikes the interest rate at this week’s meeting, the result can only be one way – inflation will spike further because this inflation is not demand-pull!

Going through the minutes of the last meeting of the MPC, there is a sense that the MPC members are spiking interest rate to equate inflation rate or interest rate to go higher than inflation rate. Members think this is what will attract foreign direct investments. But if we pay high interest rates on dollar funds we take in, where are we going to commit such funds and earn high enough returns to pay the interest and still make a profit? If Nigerian banks take deposits at high interest rates, where can they lend to earn enough to pay the interest rate and other costs? The monies will just be sitting in the banks! And here the MPC increased the CRR to 45% instead of lowering it to ensure lending to an economy screaming for growth!

It is high time now for the MPC members to change direction. There is no point pushing interest rates to go higher than inflation rate, this will hurt the economy even more. The MPC will better begin to cut rates so that the economy will start experiencing high growth that will eventually lower the inflation rate. This will be made possible if the MPC members rethink their conclusion that Nigeria’s inflation is resultant from excess liquidity in the system! MPC members must give due consideration to the other causative factors of inflation too.

Also, it is high time now for the coordinating minister of the economy to begin holding joint economic policy meetings of the monetary policy and fiscal policy authorities because the MPC alone cannot control inflation and boost output without the fiscal authorities also coming to the table and working together in harmony and with unity of purpose.

Bottomline is that it will be a bad day this week if the MPR is further hiked.  

Twitter: @NickAgule

Email: nick.agule@yahoo.co.uk

Facebook: Nick Agule, FCA

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OPINION

Edo, Ondo 2024 Reechoes Bitter Tribal Politics of 2023 Elections

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Mr Godwin Obaseki
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By Ehichioya Ezomon

In 2020, Edo State Governor Godwin Obaseki fought the political battle of his life for a second term in office. Midyear, he’s disqualified by the National Working Committee (NWC) of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), headed by Senator and former Governor Adams Oshiomhole as then national chairman.

In 2016, Oshiomhole had “imposed and installed” Obaseki as his successor.

But the godfather-godson relationship didn’t last, as Obaseki decried Oshiomhole’s “godfatherism,” and connived to have him suspended from his ward in Etsako West Local Government Area of Edo North, and sacked by the courts as APC’s chairman.

Oshiomhole denying Obaseki a re-election ticket prompted Obaseki to defect to opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which granted him automatic ticket, with which he contested and won the September 2020 election.

But in the course of the campaigns, former Lagos State Governor and acclaimed “National Leader” of the APC, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu (now President of Nigeria) called on the people of Edo State to vote for the APC candidate, Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, who’s chaperoned by Tinubu’s close ally, Comrade Oshiomhole.

It’s a wrong political move at a time Obaseki, his campaign and supporters alleged – with no concrete evidence, and yet believable – that Oshiomhole had carried out a script written by Tinubu, to disqualify Obaseki from the APC governorship primary.

When Obaseki’s still in the APC, he led a group of governors and party chieftains to Tinubu’s Bourdillon road home in Ikoyi, Lagos, to solicit his assistance to settle the feud between him and Oshiomhole, and Tinubu, short of shunning the parley, remained noncommittal, thus sending signals that he sided with Oshiomhole’s antic to deny Obaseki a second term ticket.

The backlash from Edo people against Oshiomhole for “instigating” disqualification of Obaseki from the APC primary, was also extended to Tinubu for his alleged “interference in Edo politics,” and hence the coinage: “Edo no be Lagos” – a reference to Tinubu’s stranglehold of politics of Lagos State.

So, “Edo no be Lagos” became an anthem, and the rallying cry for the Obaseki campaign, members and supporters of the PDP, and Edolites across party lines, who felt Oshiomhole (and Tinubu) committed a “political sacrilege” by denying a return ticket to Obaseki whom he’d backed for governor in 2016.

Thus, the Obaseki campaign adopted three strategies that worked for the governor’s re-election without a referendum on his “achievements” from 2016 to 2020: Deploy Oshiomhole’s “betrayal of Edo people” – particularly the Binis of Edo South, where Obaseki hails from; replay Oshiomhole’s campaign of calumny against Pastor Ize-Iyamu during the 2016 election, to denigrate and demarket him, and promote Obaseki’s candidacy that Oshiomhole sponsored; and harp on Tinubu’s “interference” in Edo politics.

Now to the 2024 governorship election in Edo State where another version of “Edo no be Lagos” or “Edo no be Yorubaland” – with a ting of tribalism – has emerged in the lead-up to the September 21 poll. But first, recall that the 2023 General Election in Lagos State witnessed an intense recline to tribal politics between the Yoruba and Igbo – the one trying to stave off alleged plans by the other to dominate Lagos politics by declaring the state as “a no man’s land” to be “captured” in the 2023 elections.

True to the fears of the Yoruba, the presidential candidate of Labour Party (LP) and former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi defeated Tinubu in his Lagos homestead in the February 25, 2023, poll. So, ahead of the following March 18 governorship election, alarmed conservative Yoruba resorted to whipping up tribal sentiments, telling liberal Yoruba that the intention of the Igbo wasn’t just to takeover Lagos – where they’ve an unverified 5m population – but also to bring the entire South-West geopolitical zone under Igbo domination.

Besides calling for “Yoruba Ronu” (‘Yoruba, Think’) – a phrase used by the legendary Hubert Ogunde “in his famous 1964 play,” warning about intra-ethnic divide among politicians in Yorubaland that could give way to external infiltration – the agitation for “Yorubaland for the Yoruba” culminated in rallying for Yoruba nationalism and supremacy in Yorubaland.

As noted by Yusuf Omotayo in a piece, “The True Meaning of ‘Yoruba Ronu,’” first published in The Atlantic of July 10, 2023, “Yoruba Ronu has recently become the anchor on which Yoruba politicians have championed calls for fanatic support. The original core message of the phrase, however, is unity rather than ethnic disrespect and Yoruba supremacy.”

The Yoruba agitators backed up their alleged “Igbo Agenda” with declarative statements and videos issued and posted by social media influencers, calling on members of the “Obidients Movement” – the mass of voters who backed Obi’s presidential run – to “vote massively” on March 18, for the LP to takeover Lagos State.

And for good (or bad) measure, the LP featured as its governorship candidate Gbadebo (Chinedu) Rhodes-Vivor, who’s a Yoruba father and Igbo mother and wife – and whose utterances and actions, even on the campaign trail, tended to play up his affinity to Igbo more than to his Yoruba heritage.

The Yoruba agitators dug into Mr Rhodes-Vivor’s social media posts – which some alleged were manipulated – in which he backed activities of the proscribed Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) – a group fighting for secession from Nigeria; his lead participation in the October 20, 2020, #Endsars violent and bloody protests in Lagos; and his intention, if elected governor, to dethrone the Oba of Lagos, and install an Igbo as replacement, declare an annual “Igbo Day” for Igbo to celebrate their traditional and cultural heritage, business acumen and dominance of the commercial and political affairs of Lagos, and give Igbo unfettered access to control all markets and commercial places in Lagos State.

These and other issues worked against the LP and Rhodes-Vivor’s ambition on poll day, giving the ruling APC and the amiable but assailed Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu a landslide victory, and crowning the “Yorubaland for Yoruba” agitators’ fierce campaign for “Yoruba Ronu” with defeat of the “Igbo campaigners” of “Na we build Lagos, na we own Lagos.”

Meanwhile – and sadly – the tribal politics of 2023 elections has resurrected in Edo and Ondo 2024 elections. In Edo, the LP candidate and former President of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA), Mr Olumide Osaigbovo Akpata, had to do a hit music in Bini, to prove that he’s a bona fide “son-of-the-soil” from the prominent family of the Akpatas of Benin Kingdom.

Decked in traditional attire, Mr Akpata leads “the cultural troupe” in a Bini song and graceful dancesteps to trace his paternal and maternal roots to ages, and pleads with Edo people that he isn’t a stranger or a Yoruba, as his political traducers want to portray him in the intense mobilisation for the LP primary, and the governorship poll on September 21.

Amid lingering doubts as to Akpata being “truly” Bini and Edo, a tweep (a user of Twitter) posted “an advisory” on X (formerly Twitter) for Igbo residents in Edo State not to dabble in the local politics of who the parties field for the governorship, but to mind their civic duty of voting for their preferred candidate.

This stirred instant reactions from Yoruba netizens (habitual or keen users of internet), who reasoned that the advisory was issued to Igbo residents in Edo State because the LP candidate’s middle name – Olumide – is Yoruba, and hence anathema to the Igbo.

The Yoruba say what’s sauce for the goose should be sauce for the gander. If Igbo supported Mr Rhodes-Vivor with a middle name of “Chinedu” and Igbo mother and wife for the LP governor in Lagos, why should Igbo steer clear of canvassing for Mr Akpata with a Yoruba name of “Olumide” as candidate of the LP in Edo State?

Similarly in the PDP in Edo State, governorship candidate Asue Ighodalo faces scrutiny as to his Esan roots from Ewohimi in Esan North-East of Edo Central. In 2023, Dr Ighodalo, a Lagos-based lawyer and industrialist associate of Governor Obaseki, reportedly hired “an interpreter” to convey his aspiration for governor to his ward members in Ewohimi. Now, critics query his “Edoness” for “growing up and working in Lagos, and marrying a Yoruba.”

In Ondo State, lawyer and veteran politician, Chief Olusola Oke, has a primary huddle for marrying an Igbo named “Nkem” as a second wife, who’s reportedly “very close” to Mrs Betty Anyanwu-Akeredolu, the Igbo wife of the late Governor Oluwarotimi Akeredolu (SAN), who died from a protracted ailment on December 27, 2023.

Accused of being an “Iron” First Lady with a domineering streak – and allegedly advancing the interests of Igbo to the detriment of the Yoruba in Ondo State – Mrs Akeredolu’s ethnic relationship with Mrs Oke may cause Mr Oke the primary ticket of the APC, and ultimately the governorship if the agitators for “Yorubaland for Yoruba” deploy “Yoruba Ronu” in the APC yet-to-be-scheduled April primary for the November 16 election in the state.

This is the stage we’re in Nigeria’s bitter politics, in which tribe and state of origin of spouses and their parents, living permanently or for a considerable length of time in their states of origin, and ability to speak fluently the local language, and imbibe the traditional and cultural nuances of the people, now determine one’s ambition for elective political position(s).

It’s happened in Lagos, in the case of Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivor failing the governorship in 2023 partly because – in the estimation of the conservative indigenous Yoruba – he’s not “Yoruba enough” for having Igbo mother and wife, and “displaying disdain” for Yoruba language, traditional and culture.

It also occurred in 2023 in Enugu State, where a resident of Ebonyi State origin was told by the locals that he couldn’t – as a “stranger” or “non-indigene” – become governor of Enugu. “A person from Ebonyi cannot be our governor in Enugu. God will not allow that” (to happen), one of the speakers – with members of the audience concurring – told the bewildered politician at a gathering to intimate the people about his governorship ambition, which ended thereafter!

On May 4, 2022, Senator Adeola Olamilekan (alias ‘Yayi’) (APC, Lagos West), gave in to emotions when his constituents in Ogun West gifted him nomination forms, to contest in the 2023 poll to represent the district. Pre-2015 general election when Chief Olamilekan wanted to represent Ogun West – his district of origin in Ogun State – there’s strong opposition that he wasn’t a Yewa man from the district. Some even claimed he’s from Ekiti State.

He’d to seek his political ambition in Lagos West (he’s Reps member from 2011 to 2015), which he won and represented from 2015 to 2023. But reportedly eying the governorship of Ogun State in 2027 that’s “zoned” to Ogun West, Olamilekan made attempts to switch from Lagos West to Ogun West, and met with the same resistance from APC members, three of whom filed a writ in court to stop him.

However, majority of his constituents – who’d heard about his political exploits in Lagos West – rallied for, and 71 of them purchased the nomination forms for him to contest in the primary and election, which he won, and now represents Ogun West in the 10th National Assembly.

There’re also instances of women, who weren’t allowed to vie for elective political offices by chieftains of parties in the states they’re married into, and asked to go look for slots in their states of origin. That’s how, for example, Mrs Daisy Ehanire Danjuma – wife of former Chief of Army Staff, and Founder and Chairman Emeritus of TY Danjuma Foundation, Gen. Theophilus Yakubu Danjuma (retd) – left Taraba, her state of marriage, to seek senatorial slot in Edo State and won in 2003 (PDP, Edo South).

Can this bitter tribal politics in Nigeria be reversed? It’s doubtful, as the 2023 general election that’s supposed to subsume the primeval cleavage actually accentuated it, as fears of domination by residents fueled anxiety and outrage among the local and indigenous peoples across many states of Nigeria!

Mr Ezomon, Journalist and Media Consultant, writes from Lagos, Nigeria.

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OPINION

Tinubu: The Choice between Fifth Columnists and Northern Traditional Rulers

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By Ayuba Ahmad

From Katsina, of all places, came a report the other day of little children protesting against the high rate of banditry and kidnapping in the state. The action was in response to the increasing wave of invasions of schools, kidnappings and, killings of children particularly in the north of the country.

With the seemingly unabating scenario, we may soon be witnessing replications of the Katsina children’s protests in other parts of the country in times ahead.

We have since had the experience of abduction of the breathtaking number of 287 children in Kaduna state and scores of others in Sokoto state barely a week after the unprecedented Katsina Children Protest.

There have been several reports as well, of protests by adults, against the deepening level of hunger in the land. The incidents have unfolded in Niger, Osun, Adamawa, Lagos, Kogi, Nasarawa and Kwara states among others. Beside the rising incidents of highway robbery especially targeted at trucks transiting food items and other basic essentials of life, are also the disturbing reports of looting of government stores, warehouses and silos of strategic reserves.

President Tinubu’s administration cannot afford to play the proverbial ostrich by burying its head in the sand in the face of the burgeoning infernos. As it is, those who have his ears at the corridors of power, paid aides, spin doctors, palace courtiers and jesters, appear incapable or are wilfully refusing to avail him with the correct pictures of the prevailing situation.

Under democratic and military political dispensations, people of southern Nigerian extractions, have at various times, held the highest political office in the country either as Head of State or President. Prominent examples are, Presidents Olusegun Obasanjo, Goodluck Jonathan and now, Bola Tinubu.  They have in between them, ruled over the affairs of the country longer than their northern compatriots since the start of the ongoing Fourth Republic.

This is in spite of the North’s superior population which in turn, confers on the region tremendous leverage in nationally conducted electoral contests. The region has however,  decided at several critical turns in the country’s political history, not to wantonly deploy this portent political advantage.Three of such historical instances will suffice to buttress this point.

In the June 1993 presidential election, the North overwhelmingly voted for late Chief MKO Abiola of the now defunct Social Democratic Party, SDP, against one of their own, late Alhaji Bashir Tofa of the National Republican Convention, NRC. That show of magnanimity was repeated in 1999 when Chief Olusegun Obasanjo ascended to the nation’s pinnacle of political power very largely due to the solid support he had in the cream of the elites and electorate of the North.

With the north giving President Tinubu 5 million of the 8 million votes that earned him victory in the 2023 presidential contest, there is no gainsaying which of the nation’s geopolitical divide deserves the garlands for the  feats of Tinubu and  of the APC in that year’s historic elections.

This piece, more or less a rejoinder, was triggered by a recent article titled: “From Palace to Politics, Fulani Emirs Mass Against Tinubu” by one Francis Ojo. Ojo’s article comes across as a voyage in a brazen exercise of hauling unprintable invectives  on the highly revered institutions and persons of the Sultan of Sokoto, His Eminence, Dr Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar III  and the Emir of Kano, His Highness Alhaji Aminu Ado Bayero.

In the warped perception of the author, the two royal fathers ought not to have lent their voices to those of the several other well-meaning leaders in the country,  in drawing the attention and accordingly, admonishing the President on the prevailing  poverty and attendant creeping hunger and, anger among the people.

Using the auspicious occasion of the visit of the nation’s First Lady, Senator Oluremi Tinubu to his Palace, Emir Aminu Ado Bayero, had made a passionate appeal on the President to adopt more effective and pragmatic solutions to the raging  hunger and starvation across the length and breadth of the country.

Though, the Emir acknowledged that the “crisis preceded this government”, he said, “the situation has however become more alarming and needs urgent attention.” According to him, “the government should come clean on this matter and talk to Nigerians in the language they would understand.”

Also speaking earlier at a forum of northern Emirs and Chiefs, His Eminence, Sultan Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar similarly drew attention of the President Tinubu’s administration to the stark reality and potential grim backlash of the heightening level of poverty and hunger.

The Sultan noted that, the prevailing air of restraint and quiet amongst the citizens was in large measure, due to the fact that “people have been talking to them.” According to him: “We have been talking to them…I pray to Almighty Allah that they will not wake up one day and say, ‘we no longer believe in you’. That would be the biggest problem.” 

In a show of appreciation for their courageous and wise commentary on the state of the nation, Sultan Sa’ad Abubakar and Emir Aminu Bayero have been extolled and celebrated by a broad-spectrum of enlightened, well-meaning citizens in all parts of the country. The encomiums are in appreciation of their  bringing the respected and weighty moral authority to bear at such a crucial and trying time such as the nation is presently going through.

On the other hand, in the warped, hate-tainted logic of Ojo, the matter-of-fact and fatherly counseling of the Sultan and the Emir were nothing but the “politics of the massing of Fulani Emirs against Tinubu.” To him, while the views of Emir Aminu Bayero translated to his “sending insults to Tinubu”, the Sultan on his part, was merely “sending his threats” to the President.

 An enlightened and urbane leader that he is, Tinubu would not, of course, be bought on such bunkum and balderdash.

In the course of his treacherous fabrications and twisting of facts, Ojo alleged that “northerners fanatically defended President Muhammadu Buhari all through his eight disastrous years in office.” In his view, the northerners, especially their leaders, do not; therefore, have the “moral justification to be criticizing President Tinubu’s administration which is barely eight months in office.” Nothing can be further from the truth.

More than any other groups and individuals, the likes of Professor Ango Abdullahi and Dr Hakeem Baba Ahmed, on the platform of the Northern Elders Forum, the fiery clerics, Sheikh Ahmed Abubakar Gumi and Bishop Mathew Kuka of the Sokoto Catholic Diocese were simply the most vociferous voices of  criticisms against unpopular government’s policies and programmes throughout the tenure of President Buhari.

Also, northern traditional leaders, the Sultan and significantly, the Emirs of Katsina and Daura, were unrelenting in calling attention of President Buhari to the abysmal state of insecurity and otter negative fall-outs of the policies and programmes of his administration.

Just as they opted for late MKO against Alhaji Tofa based on the former’s demonstrated traits of a philanthropist, his capacity and his  credentials as a Pan Nigerian leader, the North, in 2023 tilted toward Tinubu. Their going against his main challenger, a fellow northerner, Alhaji Abubakar Atiku was essentially because, Bola Ahmed Tinubu was seen as a much capable candidate.

Those now claiming Tinubu’s presidency as their exclusive preserve have conveniently, so soon in the day, forgotten that Tinubu lost the 2023 presidential polls in Lagos and Osun states which are the two states where, for very strong symbolic reasons, he should have had his best showing.

On the whole, it is so obvious that Ojo and his cohorts are  mere puppets, poor wretched lumpens that are unwittingly, serving as pawns in the manipulative hands of scheming puppeteers and, the Fifth Columnists. The ultimate goal of the masquerades behind the masks, is a vicious and cynical agenda aimed at the very heart of the President. The Year 2027 is  the visible object of their schemes, machinations and poisoned darts.

President Bola Tinubu should be grateful to Sultan Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar and Emir Aminu Ado Bayero for telling him the truth that his aides will not avail him with. He is also very importantly, to be wary of the Fifth Columnists, the Janus-faced people who only profess loyalty and affection but are in truth, his very worst enemies.

Ayuba Ahmad is a Kaduna-based Public Affairs Commentator.

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