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Oil Prices Plunge, Shares Jump on US-Iran Ceasefire Plan

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Global oil prices have fallen sharply and stock markets have jumped after the US and Iran agreed to a conditional two-week ceasefire deal that includes the reopening of the key Strait of Hormuz waterway.

The price of benchmark Brent crude fell by about 13 per cent to $94.

80 (£70.73) a barrel, while US-traded oil was more than 15% lower at $95.
75.

But oil prices remain higher than before the conflict started on 28 February.

At the time, it was trading at around $70 a barrel.

The cost of energy has jumped as oil and gas supplies from the Middle East have been severely disrupted after Iran threatened to attack ships trying to use the strait in retaliation to US and Israeli airstrikes.

Stock markets in Europe opened higher following sharp rises in Asia. London’s FTSE 100 share index jumped by 2.53% in opening trade. In France, the Cac gained 4 per cent while Germany’s Dazx rose by nearly 5 per cent.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 5% while South Korea’s Kospi jumped nearly 6 per cent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up 2.8 per cent, while the ASX 200 in Australia gained 2.7 per cent.

US stock market futures also pointed to a higher open for Wall Street.

Futures contracts are an agreement to buy an asset for a set price at a later point in time. In the case of US stock futures, they can indicate the direction of the market before it opens.

In a social media post, Trump said: “I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks, subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz”.

He had set a deadline for 20:00 EDT on Tuesday (00:00 GMT on Wednesday), threatening that “a whole civilisation will die tonight” if no deal was reached.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on social media that Tehran will agree to a ceasefire “if attacks against Iran are halted”, adding that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz “will be possible”.

Despite his threats, Trump was likely to be wary about letting energy prices “skyrocket” by escalating the conflict, said Xavier Smith from market research firm AlphaSense.

That could have led to a “self-inflicted economic wound” that few would risk, especially given the looming pressure of approval ratings on Trump’s leadership, said Smith, a research director.

More oil tankers stranded near the strait may be able to pass through the waterway during the ceasefire, providing some relief for markets in the coming weeks, said analyst Saul Kavonic from financial services firm MST Marquee.

Despite the conflict, some ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz, although far fewer than usual.

Asian countries including India, Malaysia and the Philippines have negotiated safe passage for their vessels in recent weeks.

China has also acknowledged that several of its ships have crossed the strait since the war began.

Meanwhile, a Malta-flagged container vessel owned by French company CMA CGM crossed the shipping route, media organisation BFM TV – which is owned by the shipping firm – confirmed on Friday.

And a Japanese ship carrying natural gas also made it out of the strait, shipping giant MOL confirmed.

Kavonic said that while a ceasefire is in place, it is still unlikely that energy production in the Middle East will fully resume until there is confidence of a lasting peace deal.

It could also take months for production to restart due to damage done to energy infrastructure in the region, he said.

Iran has targeted energy and industrial infrastructure across the oil-rich region in retaliation to the US-Israeli strikes.

It could take years to fix the damage and cost more than $25bn, according to research firm Rystad Energy.

Energy prices jumped in mid-March after strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan industrial hub, which produces about a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas.

The hub’s owners said the attacks have reduced the country’s export capacity by 17% and that it will take up to five years to repair the damage.

Asia has been hit particularly hard by the economic fallout of the Iran war as many countries are heavily reliant on energy from the Gulf.

Governments and companies across the region have announced measures in recent weeks to deal with high energy prices and fuel shortages.

On 24 March, the Philippines, which imports 98% of its oil from the Middle East, became the first country to declare a national energy emergency after petrol prices more than doubled.

Many airlines in the region have raised fares and cut flights in response to surging jet fuel prices.

Developing countries in Asia have been especially affected by the conflict as many do not have their own refineries or sufficient oil reserves, said Ichiro Kutani from Japan’s Institute of Energy Economics.

“The ceasefire is good news for Asian countries. If it holds, oil prices will return to normal states, though this will take time.”

Foreign News

Trump Orders US Naval Blockade of Strait of Hormuz

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President Donald Trump on Sunday ordered a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in response to Iran’s “unyielding” refusal to give up its nuclear ambitions during peace talks in Islamabad.

While acknowledging that the marathon negotiations in Pakistan had gone “well” and “most points were agreed to,” Trump said Tehran had refused to concede on the issue of its nuclear program.

“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump said on his Truth Social platform.

“Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be Blown To Hell!”

US Vice President JD Vance left Pakistan without a deal after weekend talks with a team led by Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf — the highest-level meeting between the two sides since the 1979 Islamic revolution.

Tehran’s delegation also included Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

“We leave here with a very simple proposal, a method of understanding that is our final and best offer. We’ll see if the Iranians accept it,” Vance told reporters.

In two lengthy posts on Truth Social, Trump slammed Iran for promising to open the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil passes, and “knowingly” failing to deliver.

“They say they put mines in the water, even though all of their Navy, and most of their ‘mine droppers,’ have been completely blown up. They may have done so, but what ship owner would want to take the chance?” Trump said.

Iran had effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz for weeks, since the United States and Israel launched a bombing campaign against the Islamic republic more than six weeks ago.

On Saturday, the US military announced that two US warships had transited the strait at the start of a mine clearance operation.

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Gambia Appoints British Barrister to Prosecute Gruesome Jammeh-era Crimes

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British barrister Martin Hackett has been appointed as The Gambia’s first special prosecutor to try those responsible for human rights abuses carried out during the 22-year rule of ex-President Yahya Jammeh, which ended when he went into exile in 2017.

Hackett will head a newly created office charged with dealing with the cases from a period characterised by widespread repression, enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings.

The Truth, Reconciliation and Reparations Commission (TRRC) was set up to document the extent of the alleged abuses.

In its final report, handed to current President Adama Barrow in 2021, it identified those most responsible and recommended their prosecution.

The TRRC, which heard harrowing testimony from victims, former security operatives and other witnesses, also called for reparations to be paid to the victims, warning that failure to act risked entrenching impunity.

The TRRC has started phased compensation payments, starting with victims of abuses committed shortly after the 1994 coup when Jammeh first came to power.

But for many survivors, financial compensation is secondary to accountability.

Among the most notorious cases highlighted by the TRRC were the 2004 killing of journalist Deyda Hydara and the murder of more than 50 mainly West African migrants, executed by security forces after being wrongly accused of plotting a coup.

A handful of perpetrators have already been convicted abroad under the principle of universal jurisdiction, including former members of the notorious paramilitary unit and death squad known as “the Junglers” – some of whom have been jailed in Germany and the US.

The appointment of Hackett, who has previously served at the UN-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon and who investigated war crimes committed by senior military commanders during the Kosovo war, is seen as a decisive step towards domestic accountability.

Attorney General Dawda Jallow was quoted as saying that Hackett had a four-year mandate and was chosen from a wide selection of candidates.

Jammeh, who refused to co-operate with the TRRC, only left power at the insistence of regional leaders.

They sent in troops to The Gambia when he refused to step down after his shock election defeat in December 2016.

Now aged 60, Jammeh has previously denied wrongdoing and is believed to be living in exile in Equatorial Guinea.

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Banks Recapitalization Program: A Sector Transformed

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By Ademola Bakare

The Nigeria banking sector has witnessed significant recapitalization and consolidation exercises, dating back to 1952. The most recent were in 2004 that terminated in 2006, and 2010. Professor Charles Soludo, then governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, raised the minimum capital benchmark from N2 billion to N5 billion.

The effort reduced the number of banks in Nigeria to 25 from 89, and Mallam Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, also a former governor, in 2010 established Asset Management Company {AMCON}, “bad bank” to ‘buy toxic assets off commercial banks, and recapitalized distressed financial institutions.

That era was largely an abuse of banking industry ethics, hugely perpetrated internally by chief executives, and board members of many banks.

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s {CBN} just concluded effort was announced in 2024 with a two-year timeline, prescribing a new recapitalization regime of minimum capital benchmark of N500 billion, N200 billion, and N50 billion for commercial banks with international, national, regional licences respectively.

The new capital targets were ₦500 billion for international commercial banks, ₦200 billion for national commercial banks, ₦50 billion for regional commercial banks, ₦50 billion for national merchant banks, ₦20 billion for national non-interest banks, and ₦10 billion for regional non-interest banks

Recapitalization of banks in Nigeria is not novel, it has always been a regulatory measure employed by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to strengthen the financial system, protect depositor funds, and enhance the banking sector’s capacity to support economic growth. The first exercise was carried out in 1952 (Banking Ordinance), caused by the failure of indigenous banks. The then colonial government adopted tight regulations, raising the capital requirement for foreign banks to £400,000. The Banking Act of 1969, was another effort to strengthen banks. It raised the capital base to £1.5 million for foreign banks and £600,000 for indigenous commercial banks.

In 1997/1998 (Bank Failures) following widespread distress and failures within the sector, minimum benchmark capital was once again raised, which ultimately led to the failure of 26 banks.

The Olayemi Cardoso recapitalization programme which started on April 1, 2024 was considered a herculean odyssey deadline for the banks to bolster their capital bases. But the governor has been consistent and uncompromising with his policies. He said “the era of fragile balance sheets was over”. He wasn’t just desirous of bigger and fat figures on a ledger, he was seeking a financial ecosystem capable of financing huge infrastructure, and a $1 trillion economy envisioned by President Bola Tinubu’s administration, as well as structuring the sector to be able to withstand any shock associated with the volatile global economy.

As of March 31, 2026, 33 banks have met the new requirements, raising ₦4.65 trillion in new capital. These efforts aimed to strengthen Nigeria’s banking sector, improve resilience, and support economic growth. The programme was executed seamlessly, devoid of any rancour, and recorded a very strong participation from domestic and international investors, with 72.55 per cent of capital sourced locally and 27.45 percent from international markets. This demonstrated growing and sustained confidence in the Nigerian banking sector, and by extension, the Nigerian economy.

The concluded programme offers several implications and benefits for the Nigerian economy. Among which, but not limited are – increased lending capacity. With stronger capital bases, banks can lend more to businesses, particularly the small and medium enterprises (SMEs), and individuals yearning for capital to expand their businesses. Surely, this will strengthen financial stability as higher capital requirements will reduce the likelihood of bank distress and contagion, thereby promoting financial system stability.

For the $1 trillion economic aspiration of the government, a well-capitalized bank will attract more foreign investors to support Nigeria ‘s economic development, making it competitive. Larger banks are now, not a pack of local lenders, equipped, and can compete effectively with international banks, fostering innovation, and efficiency.

Among other benefits is economic stimulation, to ensure increased lending support for infrastructure development, industrialization, and job creation. With stronger shareholder net worth, banks performance will improve and the shareholders’ confidence boosted.

CBN’s strong regulatory framework employed by Olayemi Cardoso ensured that banks adopt more robust risk management practices, thereby reducing the risk of financial crises. The apex bank, he has often said, will continue to improve on governance, transparency, and accountability in the banking industry.

The recapitalization program when it was wrapped up earned commendation from industry players, and financial technocrats, who viewed the program as the prescription the economy required for its transformation.

However, not all banks operating in the country met the deadline. Some couldn’t, and are still continuing with the process of shoring up their capital adequacy. To these banks, the CBN assured the banking public, will remain functional.

Cardoso said, “Sustainable economic growth is unattainable without a resilient financial system. This recapitalisation ensures Nigerian banks can fund the scale of transactions needed to drive a $1 trillion economy”. Stressing that “the recapitalisation programme has strengthened the capital base of Nigerian banks, reinforced the resilience of the financial system and ensured it is well-positioned to support economic growth and withstand domestic and external shocks”.

The Olayemi Cardoso era will be etched in annals of banking sector history not for complexity of his monetary policies, but for clarity of his vision for the sector and the country.

Ademola Bakare, writes from Abuja.

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