POLITICS
Tinubu’s Second Term: The Hope of Democracy in Nigeria
By Simon Tuleh
In the annals of Nigerian history, few milestones carry the weight of democratic endurance.
As President Bola Ahmed Tinubu approaches the midpoint of his first term, culminating in the 2027 elections, speculation and optimism swirls around his potential bid for a second term.
Should he secure victory in 2027 and serve until 2031, Tinubu would etch his name into the nation’s foundational narrative: becoming the first civilian president without any prior military service since Nigeria’s independence in 1960 to complete two full terms in a democratic government.
This achievement would not only symbolize the maturation of Nigeria’s Fourth Republic but also underscore a pivotal shift away from the shadows of military influence that have long loomed over the presidency.
As a citizen of Nigeria concerned about the sustainability of our democratic journey, one must be able to grasp the profundity of this potential landmark, rewind to October 1, 1960, when Nigeria emerged from colonial rule as a sovereign federation.
The early years were marked by civilian governance under the First Republic (1960–1966), led by Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, the nation’s ceremonial president. Azikiwe, a journalist and nationalist, embodied the civilian ideal but served only three years before a military coup shattered the Republic in 1966. Subsequent decades were dominated by a carousel of military regimes, from Yakubu Gowon to Muhammadu Buhari’s iron-fisted 1983–1985 interregnum, interrupted briefly by civilian interludes.
The Second Republic (1979–1983) offered a glimmer of democratic hope. Shehu Shagari, a teacher and politician from the north, was elected president in 1979 and reelected in 1983. Yet, his tenure ended prematurely in a coup, denying him a full second term. Shagari, like Tinubu, had no military background—a rarity in a country where barracks and ballots have intertwined fates.
The return to democracy in 1999 ushered in the Fourth Republic, Nigeria’s longest stretch of uninterrupted civilian rule. Olusegun Obasanjo, the republic’s inaugural president, former military general (1999–2007), served two terms, steering the nation through economic reforms and debt relief. But Obasanjo’s path was forged in khaki; he had led as military head of state from 1976 to 1979. His successors followed suit in blending civilian suits with military stripes: Umaru Musa Yar’Adua (2007–2010) died in office after less than three years, handing over to Goodluck Jonathan (2010–2015), who completed one term without military ties but faced electoral defeat in the 2015 wave of “Change” led by the All Progressives Congress (APC) with a former military general again taking the reins of power from a civilian president, this time not with the barrel of a gun but a democratic process general elections 2015. And Buhari became the first opposition candidate to beat an incumbent in a presidential election in Nigeria.
While the administration recorded some successes (especially in infrastructure and rice production), it is widely regarded as having failed to deliver on its core promises: security, economy, and anti-corruption. Most independent analysts and a majority of Nigerians rate the Buhari administration as one of the worst if not the worst in Nigeria’s democratic history, primarily because it took office with enormous goodwill and explicit promises on security and the economy, yet left the country dramatically more insecure, poorer, and more divided than it found it in 2015.
Yet, 2023 saw the dogged emergence of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, an accountant, senator, governor of Lagos State (1999–2007), and presidential candidate of the APC. Unlike Obasanjo and Buhari former military generals, Tinubu’s ascent as a non-military stern democrat is unmarred by fatigue.
A product of Chicago State University and the bustling streets of Lagos commerce, his political DNA is woven from grassroots mobilization, economic acumen, and unyielding opposition to military rule during the Abacha era. Exiled in the 1990s for his pro-democracy activism, Tinubu returned to help architect the Alliance for Democracy and later the All Progressives Congress (APC), the party that propelled him to Aso Rock.
Tinubu’s first term has been a crucible of bold strokes and bruising critiques. His “Renewed Hope” agenda—launched amid fuel subsidy removal, naira floatation, and cybersecurity overhauls has ignited economic tremors but also sown seeds of long-term stability. Inflation has spiked to double digits, and youth unrest simmers, yet GDP growth projections for 2025 hover around 3.5%, buoyed by oil sector tweaks and foreign investment inflows. Tinubu’s deft navigation of ECOWAS crises, including the Niger intervention, has burnished his statesman image on the continental stage.
Politically, the stars align for a 2027 reelection, The APC’s supermajority in the National Assembly, coupled with Tinubu’s patronage networks in the Southwest and beyond, positions him favorably. Constitutional eligibility is unambiguous: Article 135 of the 1999 Constitution permits two four-year terms for the president. At 73 in 2023, Tinubu would be 79 by term’s end in 2031—energetic enough, his allies argue, to outpace predecessors like the octogenarian Joe Biden across the Atlantic.
Critics, however, decry the risks: a personality cult, corruption scandals echoing his gubernatorial days, and the perennial “zoning” debate that could fracture the north-south equilibrium.
Yet history favors incumbents in Nigeria’s democracy; only Jonathan has lost reelection since 1999. Tinubu’s machine, honed in Lagos’ “megacity” governance, could deliver the votes if he sustains infrastructure wins like the Lagos-Calabar highway and student loan expansions.
Why This Matters: Shattering the Military-Civilian Nexus
Tinubu’s hypothetical second term would transcend personal triumph, symbolizing Nigeria’s democratic adolescence. Since independence, every two-term executive Obasanjo and Buhari bore military scars, a vestige of the coups that scarred the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s.
This pattern has perpetuated a subtle militarism in governance: top-down decrees, security-centric policies, and a presidency that views the state as a command post.
A Tinubu double tenure would affirm civilian supremacy in its purest form. It would honor the sacrifices of pro-democracy icons like Ken Saro-Wiwa and Gani Fawehinmi, who dreamed of leaders accountable to ballots, not barracks. For a nation where 70% of citizens are under 30, per World Bank data, this milestone could inspire a generation to see politics as enterprise, not enforcement fostering innovation in tech hubs like Yaba and agricultural revolutions in the north.
Globally, it bolsters Nigeria’s soft power. As Africa’s largest economy and democracy, a stable two-term civilian leader would counter narratives of fragility, attracting investors wary of the 2023 election violence that claimed over 100 lives.
A Legacy in the Making
President Tinubu often invokes the metaphor of a “moving train” for Nigeria’s progressunstoppable, if guided wisely. Should he steer it through 2027’s polls to 2031, he will not merely extend his mandate but redefine it. For the first time since 1960, a president untainted by military service will have helmed two terms in democratic splendor, proving that in Nigeria’s grand experiment, the ballot box can outlast the bayonet.
As the 2027 campaigns dawn, the nation watches. Will Tinubu join the pantheon of two-term titans, but as the unapologetic civilian among soldiers? If history is any guide, the answer may well lie in the resilience of a man who turned Lagos from a swampy backwater into Africa’s Silicon Valley. Nigeria—and its democratic soul—stands to gain immensely.
Simon Tuleh is a consultant and public analyst based in Abuja 08029640726, simonbigfidel@gmail.com
From Jude Dangwam, Jos
The Executive Governor of Plateau State, His Excellency Caleb Manasseh Mutfwang, has reaffirmed the state government’s commitment to sustaining peace, security, and development.
The Governor in a statement signed by his The Director of Press and Public Affairs Gyang Bere on Tuesday, when he received the Chief of Army Staff (COAS), Lieutenant General Waidi Shaibu, on a courtesy visit at the New Government House, Little Rayfield, Jos.
He described the visit as timely and reassuring. He commended the Nigerian Army and other security agencies for their resilience, professionalism, and sacrifices in addressing complex security challenges on the Plateau and across the country, particularly under conditions that have stretched personnel and resources nationwide.
The Governor noted that, “despite alarming intelligence reports in the build-up to the Christmas and New Year festivities of 2025, Plateau State recorded one of its most peaceful festive seasons in recent times.” He attributed this achievement to the vigilance, discipline, and gallantry of officers and men of the Nigerian Army, who remained on duty while citizens celebrated with their families.
Mutfwang also reflected on the recent Armed Forces Remembrance Day, paying tribute to fallen heroes who made the ultimate sacrifice in defence of the nation. He assured that beyond prayers, the government remains committed to supporting the families of deceased and serving personnel.
While acknowledging that some security challenges persist, the Governor stressed, “There is need to deepen non-kinetic approaches alongside ongoing kinetic operations.” He reiterated that “insurgents and terrorists remain enemies of the state who threaten Nigeria’s sovereignty and must be confronted decisively.”
Expressing confidence in the loyalty and professionalism of the Nigerian Army, Governor Mutfwang assured the Chief of Army Staff, Lieutenant General Waidi Shaibu, of the state’s continued support, while appealing for sustained military presence to consolidate peace. He further described Plateau State as a welcoming home for all who serve the nation.
Earlier in his remarks, Lieutenant General Shaibu explained that he was on a working visit to Plateau State as part of his official engagements across the country. He commended the Plateau State Government for its unwavering support and cooperation with the 3 Armoured Division, noting that such synergy has been critical to improving security outcomes in the state.
The COAS expressed confidence that, “the security challenges confronting Plateau State are surmountable,” assuring Governor Mutfwang of “the Nigerian Army’s continued collaboration with the state government to safeguard lives and property.” He emphasized that “peace and stability in Plateau State remain a shared responsibility and an achievable goal through sustained partnership.”
The visit formed part of the Chief of Army Staff’s official engagement with the Headquarters of the 3 Armoured Division of the Nigerian Army, headquartered in Jos, Plateau State.
From Sylvia Udegbunam, Enugu
Residents and political leaders of Nomeh Unateze Ward in Nkanu East Local Government Area of Enugu State have intensified the All Progressives Congress (APC) electronic membership registration exercise in the state.
The people also used the opportunity to endorse the party as their rallying point come 2027, throwing their full weight behind President Bola Tinubu, Governor Peter Mbah and all candidates of the APC in the forthcoming general election.
They made their stand known during the official flag-off of the APC electronic membership registration exercise in the ward, which turned into a rally of appreciation for the governor’s projects in the area and a declaration of loyalty to the APC.
Speaking at the event, the Special Assistant on Media (External Relations) to the Governor, Uche Anichukwu, said the massive turnout was a clear sign that the people were satisfied with the performance of the Enugu State Government and its alignment with the APC.
“The large turnout we witnessed here today clearly shows that the people of Nomeh Unateze are extremely happy with the Governor of Enugu State. It also shows that the people of Nomeh Unateze are happy with the APC. You could see the excitement. It was quite organic; it wasn’t manufactured,” Anichukwu said.
He pointed to several ongoing and completed projects in the community as the reason for the growing support for Mbah, President Bola Tinubu, and the APC.
“If you look up there, you would see the magnificent Smart Green School, completed and standing here in Nomeh Unateze, and as you drive down the road, you would see the Type-2 Primary Healthcare Centre. There is also the ongoing Nomeh–Mburubu–Nara Road and, of course, the Nomeh–Oduma Road under construction. The governor is also promising many other projects.
“After seeing these things, nobody should be surprised that our people are excited to join the APC. In fact, I got a lot of calls that we should send more people because they want more hands to help register them,” he said.
Also speaking, the Secretary of the Nkanu East Local Government Council, Rev. Felix Okoye, reminded the people that registering with the APC and obtaining their voter’s cards were the only ways of guaranteeing the continued execution of the numerous projects of the Mbah administration in Nomeh community and Enugu State.
He recalled that Mbah had revived or completed several abandoned projects in the state.
The Ward Councilor, Hon. Jonathan Orji, thanked the people for the overwhelming acceptance of the APC as the new political train in the state under Mbah’s leadership.
Chairman of APC in Nomeh Ward, Fidelis Mbah, said the e-registration in the ward, which used to be a Peoples Democratic Party enclave, marked the consolidation of the state’s recent political shift to the centre and APC.
“So, today is the official flag-off of APC membership registration in Nomeh Ward. We promised that wherever he goes, we will also go with him because of the great job he is doing. The turnout speaks volumes, but it is nothing compared to what you will see here on Election Day,” he declared.
APC Woman Leader in the ward, Victoria Ubah, said women in the community had unanimously decided to support the APC because of the governor’s development projects.
“The governor has done so much for us. He built a hospital for us, he built a Smart School for us, he is building roads and bridges for us, and he is helping the poor and the farmers. All the women in this community have decided to register with the APC, and we will vote for Mbah in 2027,” she said.
A member of the APC executive in Nkanu East Local Government Area, Nkechi Okafor, said the community had already made up its mind.
“Mbah has done a lot for the Nomeh people. You could see the projects yourselves. Because of that, you could also see nearly a thousand people here. We are all APC from the day Dr. Peter Mbah led us into the party. So, we are very happy. There is no vacancy, and it is APC all the way,” she declared.
The New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) has disassociated itself from a plan protest against the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) scheduled for Tuesday.
National Publicity Secretary, Ladipo Johnson in a statement in Abuja on Monday said the attention of the party was drawn to reports of plan by NNPP to stage a protest at INEC head office in Abuja as well as across states of the Federation.
”The NNPP wishes to use this medium to dissociate the party from the illegal demonstration called by an illegal body claiming to be speaking on behalf of the NNPP,” he said.
Johnson said that those behind the illegal protest were not members of the party as established by the Federal High Court in Suit Number FHC/ABJ/CS/1354/2024 of April 18, 2024.
He said that Justice Emeka Nwite in the suit affirmed that they had ceased to be members of the party following their expulsion by the appropriate organs of the party.
”Up till today, they have not appealed the judgment, but instead, engaging in forum shopping looking for orders that have no foundations in law.
”As it is their trademark, they go to the courts hiding the facts of the matter, and once the courts hear the correct story, they discard them like pack of cards.
”NNPP wishes to reiterate that it is not involved in any protest slated for Tuesday, and state categorically that the persons behind the protest are impostors,” he said.
Johnson therefore called on NNPP members to remain calm even in the face of provocations by elements aimed at distracting the party from its stated objectives. (NAN)
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