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OPINION

What History Says About how Buhari’s Successor will Emerge

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By Azu Ishiekwene

I think the most frequently asked question today is, who will succeed President Muhammadu Buhari? With over 35 aspirants openly declaring their interest as of today, a few still in the closet and more coming out, the field has never looked more crowded.


And last week, the decision by former President Goodluck Jonathan to put one leg in the ring, while pretending that he is being dragged, got party and non-party members even more confused.


Of course, those who are pressing him into the race – Governor of Yobe State and former All Progressives Congress (APC) interim Chairman, Mai Mala Buni; Kebbi State Governor Abubakar Atiku Bagudu, and a few ministers from the North – wish it would happen.

But they know it won’t. Buni once led a delegation to Jonathan, to explore the possibility of the former president running with the Attorney General and Minister of Justice, Abubakar Malami, as his running mate.


The strongest consideration is the potential four-year one-term limit of another Jonathan presidency. But the trap is that a post-election litigation over the 2017 constitutional amendment on “swearing-in”, could disqualify Jonathan and hand the position over to his running mate, if he wins.
After the visit, Jonathan asked for time to consult. It was, however, clear from the criticism that followed that decamping from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and running on the ticket of the APC was a bridge too far.


Even if the APC were to grant the entry waiver, which Jonathan requested, he would still have to face the party primaries. And more important, the APC will have to convince its members, and perhaps the larger public, that the same man it branded Jonathan the Incompetent and Jonathan the Clueless has now become Jonathan the Messiah.


The renewed buzz about a potential Jonathan comeback, suggests that some elements in the APC still think that they can lead their party back to its vomit. And yet, they don’t think it’s an act of desperation. A number of insiders told me this week that nothing other than a desire to find someone who can preserve Buhari’s legacy is tempting the APC back to Jonathan. They obviously can’t imagine that the public will ask the APC, what legacy?


The noise about a possible Jonathan return and concerns that it could be disastrous for other aspirants may be good political gossip, but it’s a waste of time. Jonathan will not return unless the 18 registered political parties adopt him as their candidate and the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Mahmood Yakubu, agrees to write the presidential election result and personally deliver the certificate of return to him in Otuoke.


From his time as deputy governor to his tenure as Vice President, Jonathan has become so used to a life of ease, and well, good luck, that no matter how hard he tries, he can’t bring himself into this contest except the ducks are lined up for him in a row. Jonathan being Jonathan, unless the elements align again and fall on his lap, which is as likely as the appearance of a blue moon, he won’t try for it.


But history, that is, the history of the two major political parties could at least give us an idea of who in the APC might get it. There are teachable moments in the journeys of three former candidates – Olusegun Obasanjo, Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and Buhari – that could provide an insight into how the candidates in the major parties would emerge.


One, there is something in the DNA of the power brokers that resents big political spenders. Although figures are hard to come by, anecdotal evidence suggests that MKO Abiola was probably one of the biggest pre-election spenders in the last three and a half decades. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar could also be in the league, but more so because of his repeat races. Abiola, a multi-billionaire friend of the rich and powerful and candidate of the Social Democratic Party (PDP), ran a campaign that was colourful and massively funded.


His wealth was not only a source of envy, it was also a source of fear and resentment among the military elite who couldn’t bring themselves to hand over political power to a man who seemed to have it all.
If the political transition under military president Ibrahim Babangida was an attempt to depart from the unspoken tradition of not handing over power to candidates who are both rich and politically influential, the power brokers took the lessons from the Abiola misadventure to heart.


From Obasanjo to Yar’Adua and Buhari, three candidates who emerged between 1999 and 2014, not one, at least as far as the public knew, could fund their own party primaries, much less their election campaigns.

Obasanjo was broke when he left prison in 1998. His sprawling farm business was in ruins. He couldn’t rehabilitate his chicken coop much less fund the primaries of the PDP. Neither Yar’Adua nor Buhari was significantly better off financially. The party primaries and campaigns of all three were funded by interest groups that dragged them into the race.
This appearance of inadequacy, a sort of political crutch if you like, is the IOU that ensures that at least in form, if not substance, the interest groups can maintain a leverage on the candidate.

Two, the main parties would also be looking for political orphans – or at least those with a form of political naivety; that is, candidates who do not appear threatening, politically. All the talk about national interest is nonsense. If the candidate is from the South East, for example, “national interest” means public repudiation of the Biafra separatist agenda and disavowal of IPOB.
If he is from the South West, it means rejection of “Amotekun”, state police, or restructuring. And if, at this time, he is from the North – that is anywhere outside the North West – national interest will depend on whether is he Christian or Muslim. Of course, for all regions, religion has increasingly become a dominant issue in the last 30 years.
Nothing illustrates the obsession of the cabal with political control more than the story of the failed presidential ambition of former Rivers State Governor, Peter Odili. Just like Rotimi Amaechi did for Buhari in 2014, Odili put the treasury of the state at the disposal of the third term ambition of Obasanjo, under the notion that if it failed, he would benefit.
The accounts of this gamble in three books – Obasanjo’s My Watch; Peter Odili’s Conscience and History – My Story; Chidi Odinkalu’s and Aisha Osori’s Too Good to Die; and Nasir El-Rufai’s 2009 essay on Umaru Yar’Adua, suggest that Odili was a front-runner, first as presidential candidate and then as running mate, till the eve of the PDP convention.
From Obasanjo’s book, the screening committee dumped Odili despite the fact that he showed “a lot of commitment and loyalty to the party”, because “for some inexplicable reasons, he does not enjoy the support from other governors.” Of course, because they fund the party, governors were important and would still be important, even in the current race.
But in a government where the President was famous for running dissenters, including governors out of town, to suggest that his choice was hindered by gubernatorial mushy-mushy is laughable. Not Obasanjo.
The unstated reason appears to have been Odili’s “unacceptability to foreign missions because of spurious allegations of corruption”, not to mention the fact that he knew a bit too much and had done a bit too much with the President to be allowed to cash his IOU.

Three, the history of presidential candidates also favours late, sometimes, unexpected and even unprepared entrants. For some reasons, the system appears to abhor preparation and readiness.
Obafemi Awolowo, perhaps one of the most prepared for the office for which reason Odumegwu Ojukwu described him as “the best president Nigeria never had”, contested twice for the position. Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, who is perhaps next to Awolowo, at least for resilience and organisation, also never got it.


On the contrary, from Shehu Shagari to Obasanjo and from Umaru Yar’Adua to Jonathan, accidental candidates have had an edge, making you wonder if there’s something about the office that cannot coexist with preparation. Even Buhari, who cried a river after three failed attempts, only got elected at his fourth, when he was thought to have given up.
Of course, there would always be room for surprises and outliers and any of the over 35 aspirants in the field could buck the trend.

Also, it means little to the cabal that in spite of its best efforts and elaborate care to control the process, things still go wrong, sometimes consuming it in its own experiments. Babangida, for example, misjudged Obasanjo, both as candidate and later as president; the same way Obasanjo misjudged Yar’Adua and was already regretting his role in the late president’s emergence before he died.


The selection default mode appears to be serviceability to the appointors. Usefulness to the country or the task at hand is incidental. Whatever happens in the next few weeks, just as surely as the apple doesn’t fall far away from the tree, it’s improbable that history would disappoint.


Azu Ishiekwene is Editor-in-Chief of LEADERSHIP.

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OPINION

Nigeria’s Tertiary Healthcare; The Waterbed, the Blackout and the Long Road

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By Prince Charles Dickson

In February 2026, Ogonna Egwu took her gravely ill mother to the Accident and Emergency Ward of the University of Nigeria Teaching Hospital, Ituku-Ozalla. Doctors reportedly asked her to buy a waterbed the hospital could not provide.

Unable to leave her mother alone for the 25-kilometre trip into Enugu, she gave money to a staff member.
The bed arrived the next day. Her mother died a day later.

Then came a final indignity: the bed was allegedly withheld as “hospital policy” and sold to another patient. Egwu later recovered only part of her money.

The Guardian’s account reads like fiction, but it is the kind of reality that has become dangerously ordinary.

This is not merely a story about a missing waterbed. It is an X-ray of a country where a patient’s relative becomes procurement officer, porter, blood scout and pharmacist; while grief waits at the cashier’s desk. When a hospital does not get wetin patient need, the family becomes an emergency ministry. The scandal is larger than one hospital and wider than one region.

A tertiary hospital should crown a functioning referral chain: the place for cancer therapy, neurosurgery, complex obstetrics, intensive care, specialist training and research. In Nigeria, that pyramid stands on its head. A 2026 country profile reports that 60 to 90 per cent of patients bypass primary care for secondary or tertiary facilities.

If the foundation bends, the penthouse does not fit stand straight.

From Enugu to Ibadan and Kano, the map changes, but the pathology remains: specialists spend precious hours managing illnesses that should have been prevented, detected or treated earlier.

In the South-East, The Guardian describes primary health centres below standard, general hospitals without basic diagnostics and tertiary facilities overwhelmed by the resulting traffic. Across facilities in Enugu, Nnewi, Owerri, Abakaliki and Umuahia, patients report buying medicines outside, conducting tests privately, waiting for theatre space and supplying water at the bedside. Federal Medical Centre Umuahia reportedly faced power-related costs approaching ₦70 million monthly.

Big gate no be big medicine.

Hospital infrastructure is not concrete alone. It has reliable electricity, clean water, oxygen, blood, laboratories, ambulances, functional equipment, secure information systems and human dignity.

There have been genuine improvements. UNTH has gained major solar-power capacity and a modern linear accelerator, while other facilities have received new buildings and equipment. But one functioning cancer machine serving a heavily populated region is both progress and a warning.

Machine wey no work na monument with plug.

Procurement must include maintenance, consumables, spare parts, trained operators and public reporting of equipment uptime. Commissioning photographs do not treat patients.

Travel west and the illusion of advantage appears. The South-West has major medical schools, more specialists and a dense private healthcare market. Yet University College Hospital, Ibadan, once a symbol of Nigerian medical excellence—suffered a grid disconnection in October 2024 and more than 100 days of blackout. Its power distress remained a public issue in 2026.

In an intensive care unit, electricity is not an overhead, it is medicine. Across Lagos, excellent private care may exist kilometres from overcrowded public wards, but proximity is not accessible.

Hospitals fit dey for your street; if the bill passes your pocket, e far like another country.

The generator has become an unofficial consultant, but diesel cannot be a national health policy.

The North carries the same disease with additional complications: vast distances, thinly distributed specialists, poverty, insecurity and disrupted transportation. A 2026 analysis of national survey data found inadequate antenatal-care use highest in the North-West at 35.5 per cent, followed by the North-East at 31.6 per cent and North-Central at 27.3 per cent, compared with about 10 per cent in the South-East and South-West.

By the time many patients reach Kano, Zaria, Maiduguri or Jos, a manageable condition has become an emergency. Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital has also experienced costly electricity disruptions.

Referral letter without ambulance, safe road and money na invitation wey person no fit attend.

New northern investments—including a 50-bed mental-health and drug-rehabilitation centre at the University of Maiduguri Teaching Hospital—deserve recognition. Yet an excellent tertiary island cannot compensate for a weak mainland of primary and secondary care. A woman with obstructed labour gains nothing from a sophisticated theatre she cannot reach. A trauma patient cannot use a CT scanner after losing the golden hour on a broken road.

All three regions meet at the Nigerian pocket. Out-of-pocket payments accounted for about 71 per cent of health expenditure in 2023, while roughly 91 per cent of Nigerians were uninsured in 2024. Here, sickness first attacks the body, then attacks the family economy. People buy medicines, tests, blood, gloves and consumables; they borrow, sell assets, postpone care or simply go home.

This is not a consumer choice. It is coercion by illness.

Sickness no dey ask tribe, but treatment dey recognise postcode and pocket.

Buildings do not diagnose, operate or comfort. Nigeria had about 38 doctors for every 100,000 people in 2023, with distribution skewed towards cities. Brain drain is not simply a morality tale about unpatriotic professionals; it is a verdict on the system. Health workers leave because remuneration, safety, equipment, career progression and working conditions fail them.

You no fit ask healer to stay where workplace dey wound am.

Those who remain become exhausted, patients wait longer, and young professionals learn to improvise around institutional failure. The cost is not only poorer treatment. Medical education, research and Nigeria’s capacity to confront future epidemics are also weakened.

Funding is not merely what appears in an appropriation law; it is release, execution and accountability. In February 2026, the health minister told lawmakers that only ₦36 million of the ministry’s ₦218 billion 2025 capital appropriation had been released.

Budget wey government no release na promise written with invisible ink.

The division of responsibility, federal tertiary care, state secondary care and local primary care—too often becomes an escape route for blame. But sickness does not carry a government organogram. The patient does not care which tier failed to provide oxygen.

Government reports that nearly 3,000 primary health centres have been revitalised under the IMPACT programme and that emergency obstetric sites and tertiary projects are coming online. That is welcome. The true test, however, is not how many buildings were inaugurated, but how many open every day, have skilled personnel, medicines, water and electricity, and can make a safe referral.

No be signboard dey save life; na di service behind am.

Nigeria needs a referral compact across all three levels of government. Primary centres must deliver prevention, maternal care, essential medicines and early diagnosis. General hospitals need blood banks, oxygen, imaging and round-the-clock emergency surgery. Tertiary hospitals must recover their specialist, teaching and research mandate.

Power and water should be treated as clinical infrastructure, protected through dedicated tariffs and redundant grid, solar, battery and generator systems. Equipment purchases must carry lifecycle budgets and biomedical-engineering support. Health workers need timely salaries, safe workplaces and incentives for underserved areas. The NHIA and state insurance schemes must protect vulnerable families, while public dashboards disclose budgets, releases, waiting times, equipment uptime and avoidable deaths.

Citizens are not the cause of this collapse, but they are not powerless. Communities can use ward health committees, enrol in available insurance, donate blood and demand evidence instead of applauding buildings. Professional bodies must defend workers and patients. Civil society and the media must follow public money beyond allocation to actual results. Leaders should be judged by what happens in a hospital ward at 2 a.m., not by ribbon-cutting at noon.

Return to Ogonna Egwu’s waterbed. Her mother did not need another policy launch. She needed a chain of care that worked—before the emergency, inside the hospital and after the prescription.

Country wey hospital dey wait for patient family to supply the hospital, na the country?

Nigeria must decide whether its tertiary hospitals will remain monuments to ambition or become instruments of survival. A nation cannot rise higher than the care it gives to the person who cannot pay, travel abroad or call anybody.

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OPINION

2027: Tinubu, Atiku and Obi Step up New Strategies for Nigeria’s Presidency

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By Raphael Atuu

As the 2027 general elections draw closer, the political atmosphere in Nigeria is gradually heating up, with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, former Vice President Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, and former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi emerging as the major figures shaping the race for the presidency with new strategies.

While President Tinubu is seeking a second term in office, Atiku and Obi are hoping to finally occupy the nation’s highest political seat after previous attempts.

The trio are already adjusting their strategies, building alliances, and strengthening their political structures as they prepare for what promises to be one of the most competitive elections in Nigeria’s democratic history.

President Tinubu, who came into office in 2023, is expected to campaign based on his administration’s reforms and long-term economic plans.

His supporters argue that his policies, including efforts to attract investment, improve infrastructure, and restructure the economy, will eventually deliver positive results.

However, critics believe that the removal of fuel subsidy, rising inflation, and the increasing cost of living have created serious hardship for many Nigerians.

Despite these challenges, Tinubu has continued to defend his administration, insisting that his reforms are necessary to build a stronger economy and that Nigerians will benefit from the sacrifices being made today.

His early move to unveil his campaign team suggests that the ruling party may already be preparing ahead of the opposition.

For Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, the 2027 election represents another opportunity to achieve a long-time ambition of leading Nigeria.

The former vice president has promised policies aimed at reviving businesses, improving economic opportunities, and reviewing some government decisions that have affected Nigerians.

 His position on fuel subsidy and opening up more opportunities for private sector participation has attracted attention among some voters and business communities.

However, Atiku’s major challenge remains convincing Nigerians that he represents a fresh alternative after several previous presidential contests.

He will also need to unite his political supporters and build a stronger national coalition to compete effectively.

Peter Obi, who gained massive support during the 2023 election, remains a major force in the political landscape.

His supporters, popularly known as the “Obidient movement,” believe his message of good governance, accountability, and economic transformation can bring a new direction for the country.

Although Obi has not introduced a completely new political strategy ahead of 2027, he appears focused on consolidating the support and goodwill he gained from the last election.

His challenge will be expanding his support base beyond his existing followers and proving that his movement can translate into a nationwide electoral victory.

Beyond the personalities involved, the 2027 election is expected to be decided by key issues affecting ordinary Nigerians, including the economy, security, unemployment, education, healthcare, and the cost of living.

Many voters are likely to judge the candidates based on their ability to provide practical solutions rather than political promises.

Another major factor will be the strength of political alliances. Nigeria’s electoral history shows that no candidate can win the presidency without strong structures across the country.

The ability of Tinubu, Atiku, and Obi to build broad coalitions, attract influential political figures, and connect with young voters will play a significant role in determining the outcome.

For now, President Tinubu appears to have an early advantage in terms of incumbency and political machinery, while Atiku and Obi are working to create a strong challenge. But with many months before Nigerians return to the polls, the political landscape could still change.

In the end, only one candidate will emerge as Nigeria’s president after the 2027 election.

The battle ahead will not only be about personalities but also about who can convince Nigerians that they have the right solutions for the country’s future.

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OPINION

Osun Election: Will Nigeria’s Political Class Learn?

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As Nigeria gradually enters the political season ahead of the 2027 general elections, there is a growing temptation among politicians to return to the familiar playbook: aggressive campaigns, endless promises, political propaganda, ethnic calculations, religious sentiments and the mobilisation of money and machinery.

But if the political class is paying attention, the recent Osun election should offer a sobering lesson.

Elections are no longer simply contests between political parties or exercises in political arithmetic. They are increasingly becoming referendums on performance, credibility, organisation and the relationship between politicians and the people.

The Osun experience should therefore be more than another election victory or defeat to be celebrated by one camp and rationalised by another. It should be a warning to every politician preparing for 2027.

The first lesson is that the people are watching.

For too long, Nigerian politicians have behaved as though voters can be permanently manipulated with slogans, inducements and election-day theatrics. But voters are becoming more discerning. They may still respond to material incentives, but they also remember who governed well, who failed, who showed up and who disappeared after collecting their votes.

The second lesson is that political structures cannot replace public trust.

A party may possess powerful godfathers, influential leaders, vast resources and impressive campaign machinery, but these cannot indefinitely compensate for a credibility deficit. Political structures are important, but they work best when they are reinforced by genuine voter confidence.

The third lesson is that incumbency is not an automatic guarantee of victory.

Those who occupy political offices must understand that public office comes with a political bill that eventually falls due. Roads, schools, healthcare, jobs, security, salaries, infrastructure and the general welfare of citizens are not merely governance issues; they increasingly shape electoral decisions.

The politician who assumes that occupying government gives him an irreversible advantage may discover, rather painfully, that voters have the final word.

There is also a lesson for opposition parties. Winning elections requires more than criticising the government. Nigerians are increasingly interested in alternatives. Opposition parties must articulate credible programmes, build strong grassroots structures and demonstrate that they have the competence and discipline required to govern.

Perhaps the most important lesson is that 2027 cannot be approached as politics as usual.

Nigeria is facing an electorate that is younger, more digitally connected and increasingly vocal. Social media has changed political communication. Citizens can challenge official narratives in real time. Political mistakes can become national conversations within minutes. Candidates can no longer depend entirely on traditional campaign rallies and carefully managed media appearances.

The political class must also recognise that Nigerians are tired of being treated as statistics during elections and forgotten citizens afterwards.

The road to 2027 will undoubtedly produce the usual alliances, defections, endorsements and political realignments. There will be new coalitions and old rivalries. There will be attempts to weaponise identity, manipulate emotions and redefine political narratives.

But the real question is whether politicians will learn from Osun.

Will they understand that voters deserve respect? Will they realise that performance matters? Will political parties begin to prioritise competence over loyalty? Will candidates campaign on ideas rather than insults? Will politicians understand that democracy is not simply about winning elections but earning the legitimacy to govern?

These are the questions the Osun election should force the political class to confront.

The 2027 election is approaching. The campaign season may only be beginning, but the lessons have already arrived.

The politicians who choose to ignore them may do so at their own peril.

Nigeria’s voters are watching. And this time, they may be keeping a much longer memory.

Kokome, a communications strategist and public affairs analyst, writes from Lagos via kokomejohn@yahoo.com

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