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Nigeria’s Economy: Adedipe Reviews Downward 2022 Growth Forecasts

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B. Adedipe Associates Ltd. (BAA Consult) has reviewed downward its growth forecast for the Nigerian economy in 2022 to 3.27 per cent from its earlier projection of 3.74 per cent announced in January.

Dr ‘Biodun Adedipe, founder and Chief Consultant BAA Consult, announced the new projection at the roundtable session on the Mid-Year review of Economic Outlook for 2022.

The event was organised by the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) in collaboration with BAA Consult, on Tuesday in Lagos.

“So for us in BAA Consult, we have dampen our expectation when we started the outlook at the beginning of the year.

“We projected between 3.74 per cent growth, at that time, both the Internal Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank had 1.

5 per cent by April.  IMF increases its own from 1.5 to 3.4 per cent.

“But as at today based on the first half year, what we see as the likely outcome of our GDP growth this year is 3.27 per cent; no longer 3.74 per cent because of what has happened (insecurity).

“So, we must therefore, take concrete actions with respect to insecurity which is the measure hobbler of economic growth as of Nigeria today.

“And of course, our policies with export promotion, fiscal discipline must be structurally addressed, the issue of fuel subsidy and the obvious corruption in that as well,’’ Adedipe said.

He added that the volume of refined petroleum Nigeria consume and the amount paid on subsidy, if compared together, would tell that something was missing somewhere.

He said, “Of course I’m not in government, so I don’t have access to all the data. But for us as analysts, we interpret what we see and within the limit of what we see. It is clear that talking of fuel subsidy, the trillions of Naira in Nigeria today, there must be some fraud somewhere .

“But we must develop the courage to address it; if we do that, then we’ve started the process of getting the economy in the direction it should go’’.

He said that tremendous energy in Nigerians and our corporate entities would make the economy work, `only if we get the right signals from the policy authority’.

Dr Michael Adebiyi, Director, Research Department, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) said, “against the backdrop of the prevailing headwinds to the positive outlook of the economy, the future looks optimistic.

According to Adebiyi, this is based on the various efforts of the CBN at repositioning the financial and real sectors of the economy for sustainable development.

“However, more still needs to be done, particularly in the agricultural sector and Information Communication Technology,’’ he said.

Adebiyi, represented by Mr Adeniyi Adenuga, Assistant Director, CBN, therefore called on the fiscal authorities to support the intervention efforts of the apex bank.

This, he added, can be achiebed by providing competitive tax incentives for the importation of large-scale and high-impact technology as well as innovation.

The director noted that this would help to enhance agricultural yield and efficiency in the entire value chain.

He also said that efforts at addressing the persisting insecurity challenges, should be accelerated to help address food-supply disruptions, thereby mitigating the rising food inflationary pressures in the short-term.

Adebiyi expressed optimism that the apex bank would sustain its current credit support facilities to the real sector to boost agricultural output, for improved value chain and export value.

This, he said, would restore relative stability in the foreign exchange market.

He urged banks to sustain the 100-for-100 Policy for Production and Productivity (PPP) and the Naira-4-dollar scheme and enhance the Foreign Exchange position in the Investors and Exporters window.

He suggested that could be attained by encouraging the participation of top 100 non-oil exporters in the RT200 FX programme.

According to him, these would help in stabilising the exchange rate and boost reserves accretion in the short-to-medium term.

He called on stakeholders to come up with useful recommendations that would improve and boost the growth of the Nigerian economy and policy options that could be adopted to tame inflation in the economy.

Earlier, Dr Ken Opara, President of CIBN, said that the event, a brainchild of the CIBN Research Committee, was designed to evaluate the performance of the Nigerian economy in the prior half of the year, while providing an outlook for the second half of the year.

“More specifically, the event would assess the trends of macroeconomic indicators in the first six months of 2022 as well as the performance of key sectors of the economy.

“The maiden edition was successfully held on August 13, 2021 with participants across the globe.

“This second edition of the Mid-Year Economic Review and Outlook is intended to be a follow up on the National Economic Outlook event usually held at the beginning of each year whereby actual performance/trends of economic indicators are compared with predictions asserted at the beginning of the year.

“Ultimately, it offers yet another prospect to deliver value to our stakeholders while they navigate the rudiments of a relatively demanding year,’’ Opara said. (NAN)

Economy

Imo records over $1m from non-oil exports in 2025 – NEPC

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The Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) says exporters in Imo generated a total of 1,244,095 dollars as proceeds from export trade in 2025.

The Imo Coordinator of the council, Mr Anthony Ajuruchi, disclosed this during a follow-up engagement with cocoa farmers in the state on Thursday in Owerri.

50 cocoa farmers and exporters in Imo received 30 cocoa seedlings each in 2025 as part of interventions to boost production for export.

Ajuruchi said the amount was derived from proceeds of both formal and informal export transactions carried out by the farmers within the 2025 fiscal year.

He commended the Executive Director of NEPC, Mrs Nonye Ayeni, and the management team for their support and commitment to the growth of the export market in Imo and across the country.

According to him, the council recorded notable achievements in 2025, including the organisation of capacity-building programmes on non-oil export, product packaging and labelling.

“In addition to our interventions for cashew farmers, we conducted trainings on product development and adaptation, export contracts, market penetration, product certification and export documentation procedures.

“We also trained about 600 exporters and small and medium-scale enterprises,” he said.

Ajuruchi said the engagement with the cocoa farmers was aimed at obtaining feedback and brainstorming on strategies to increase production and export volume in 2026.

One of the beneficiaries, Mrs Sophia Orji, said the cocoa seedlings she received were doing well and had started fruiting after 17 months.

Another farmer, Mrs Mary Okeke, said her cocoa plants were thriving and appealed to NEPC to extend similar support to farmers during the rainy season.

Also speaking, Mr Canice Nze, Director of Produce in the Imo Ministry of Trade, Commerce and Investment, urged the farmers to register with the ministry to enable them benefit from cooperative structures and access possible government grants. (NAN)

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Economy

NCC, CBN Approve Refund Framework for Failed Airtime and Data Transactions

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By David Torough, Abuja

In line with the consumer-focused objectives of the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the two regulators have drawn up a framework to address consumer complaints arising from unsuccessful airtime and data transactions during network downtimes, system glitches, or human input errors.

The framework is the outcome of several months of engagements involving the NCC, the CBN, Mobile Network Operators (MNOs), Value Added Service (VAS) providers, Deposit Money Banks (DMBs), and other relevant stakeholders.

According to the NCC, these engagements were prompted by a rising incidence of failed airtime and data purchases, where subscribers were debited without receiving value and experienced delays in resolution.

“The Framework represents a unified position by both the telecommunications and financial sectors on addressing such complaints. It identifies and tackles the root causes of failed airtime and data transactions, including instances where bank accounts are debited without successful delivery of services. It also prescribes an enforceable Service Level Agreement (SLA) for MNOs and DMBs, clearly outlining the roles and responsibilities of each stakeholder in the transaction and resolution process,”  a statement by Head of Public Affairs of NCC, Nnen Ukoha said.

Under the new framework, where a purchaser is debited but fails to receive value for airtime or data—whether the failure occurs at the bank level or with an NCC licensee—the purchaser is entitled to a refund within 30 seconds, except in circumstances where the transaction remains pending, of which the refund can take up to 24 hours.

The framework further mandates operators to notify consumers via SMS of the success or failure of every transaction. It also addresses erroneous recharges to ported lines, incorrect airtime or data purchases, and instances where transactions are made to the wrong phone number.

  Director of Consumer Affairs at the NCC, Mrs. Freda Bruce-Bennett in a comment on the development said   the framework also establishes a Central Monitoring Dashboard to be jointly hosted by the NCC and the CBN. According to her, the dashboard will enable both regulators to monitor failures, the responsible party, refunds, and track SLA breaches in real time.

“Failed top-ups rank among the top three consumer complaints, and in line with our commitment to addressing these priority issues, we were determined to resolve it within the shortest possible time,” she said.

“We are grateful to all stakeholders—particularly the Central Bank of Nigeria and its leadership—for their tireless commitment to resolving this issue and arriving at this framework, and for ensuring that consumers of telecommunications services receive full value for their purchases.

“So far, pending the approval of management of both regulators on the framework, MNOs and banks have collectively made refunds of over N10 billion to customers for failed transactions” she explained .

Mrs. Bruce-Bennett further noted that implementation of the framework is expected to commence on March 1, 2026, once the two regulators have made final approvals, and technical integration by all MNOs, VAS providers and DMBs is concluded.

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Business News

Budget Office Defends Tax Reform Acts, Seeks Due Process

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By Tony Obiechina, Abuja 

The Budget Office of the Federation has reaffirmed the integrity of Nigeria’s newly enacted Tax Reform Acts, cautioning against what it described as governance by speculation and unverified claims following allegations of post-passage alterations.

In a statement on Wednesday, the Budget Office said it had taken note of concerns raised by the Minority Caucus of the House of Representatives, stressing that the sanctity of the law is central to constitutional democracy and not a mere procedural formality.

According to the Office, any suggestion that a law could be altered after debate, passage, authentication, and presidential assent without due process would strike at the core of the Republic and undermine citizens’ right to be governed by transparent and stable laws.

However, it warned that democratic integrity is also endangered by the careless amplification of unverified claims. “A nation cannot be governed by insinuation or sustained on circulating documents of uncertain origin,” the statement noted, adding that public confidence, once shaken by speculation, is often difficult to restore.

The Budget Office emphasized that both government and citizens share a common interest in truth, clarity, and due process, noting that public finance depends heavily on trust in the legality and clarity of fiscal laws. It welcomed the decision of the National Assembly to investigate the allegations, describing institutional inquiry, not conjecture as the appropriate response to claims of illegality.

On public access to the law, the Office agreed that Nigerians and the business community are entitled to clear and authoritative texts of all laws they are required to obey. It clarified, however, that the authenticity of legislation is determined by certified legislative records and official publication processes, not by informal or viral reproductions.

The statement also underscored the importance of separation of powers, warning that claims suggesting Nigeria is being governed by “fake laws,” if not backed by established facts, risk eroding confidence in democratic institutions.

 At the same time, it stressed that legislative scrutiny should not be dismissed by the executive, noting that oversight is a constitutional duty, not an act of hostility.

From a fiscal perspective, the Budget Office said legal certainty is essential for revenue projections, macroeconomic stability, budget credibility, and investor confidence. While it is not the custodian of legislative records, it maintained that uncertainty around operative tax provisions directly affects economic planning.

To restore confidence, the Office proposed a set of measures, including the publication of verified reference texts in a single public repository, orderly access to Certified True Copies for stakeholders, clear public explanations where discrepancies are alleged, and strict alignment of all implementing regulations with authenticated legal texts.

Addressing calls for suspension of the tax reforms, the Budget Office cautioned against allowing prudence to slide into paralysis. It argued that properly implemented tax reform is necessary to reduce dependence on borrowing and inflationary financing, while easing indirect burdens on vulnerable citizens.

“Where clarification is required, it must be provided; where correction is required, it must be effected; where investigation is required, it must proceed,” the statement said, adding that governance and reform should not be stalled by unresolved conjecture.

The Office concluded by describing taxation as a democratic covenant that binds citizens and the state, insisting that compliance depends on transparency and trust. It called on political actors to protect institutions as much as positions, urging citizens and businesses to rely on verified sources and resist the spread of unauthenticated information.

The statement was signed by Tanimu Yakubu, Director-General of the Budget Office of the Federation, who reaffirmed the agency’s commitment to fiscal transparency, institutional integrity, and reforms that advance national prosperity while safeguarding citizens’ rights.

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