OPINION
Tinubu and the Supplementary Budget: Matters Arising
By Reuben Abati
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu recently proposed to the National Assembly a N2.18 trillion supplementary budget, the details of which have generated much interest in the public domain, especially those aspects of the budget relating to expenditures not considered of urgent importance but which have now been reintroduced into the existing framework.
During the campaigns for the 2023 presidential election, Tinubu as a candidate had promised that he, as someone with a financial background, would pay careful attention to Nigeria’s borrowing profile, and that he would not increase the country’s debt burden by borrowing more for reasons of consumption.
At the time, Nigeria’s debt burden was a problem: the external debt stock was about $41.69 billion in 2022, while the domestic public debt stock was in excess of US$100 billion.The country’s Debt Management Office (DMO) even argued that the debt was sustainable, and that Nigeria in fact had one of the lowest debt-to-GDP ratios in Africa: in 2022, the debt-to-GDP ratio in Africa was 56 per cent, but in Nigeria it was 38 per cent.
It was argued that Nigeria’s debt-carrying capacity was still strong. The World Bank recommends a tolerable debt-to-GDP ratio of 77 per cent. We were told that debt should not be a problem, after all the United States has a debt-to-GDP ratio of over 120 per cent, and the country still functions.
The counterpoint to this, however, is the debt-service ratio. It was established by professional economists and the opposition in 2023 that debt-service was/is the major problem. In 2021, Nigeria was spending about 19 per cent of its revenue on debt service; in 2023, this had increased to more than 90 per cent.
Nigeria, in 2023, had the fourth lowest revenue-to-GDP ratio in the world. Government revenue as a percentage of GDP is indeed abysmally low. With uncertainties in oil and gas revenues, and crude oil theft in the Niger Delta, Nigeria today is not so certain about its revenues. The default position has been to pay more attention to tax revenue.
Given this background, it is right to assume that the major priority for the Tinubu administration would be to address Nigeria’s debt burden and not worsen it, manage inherited circumstances prudently and give the people hope that there is truly a new dispensation in town.
Nigerians during the elections, beyond partisan considerations, had hoped that the new administration that would emerge would reduce the cost of poverty, generate employment, promote economic growth, give jobs to the people, and generally reduce the cost of governance.
There seems to have been a pervasive consensus that Nigeria is on the brink of insolvency, and that a new government by whatever label must act differently. The problem is not that President Tinubu asked for a supplementary budget. The questions are for what, how and why? At the recent presidential retreat for leaders of Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs), which had been long awaited and unnecessarily delayed, but which was better later than never all the same, the President said that borrowing is not a crime and that he is determined to borrow and increase Nigeria’s debt profile, more or less.
Even the dumbest economist on the street would tell you that countries can always borrow, but such borrowings must place the country in a situation where it can pay its debts, create budget surpluses, invest in infrastructure and support small businesses. A country can also borrow to diversify the economy for tangible benefits. No serious country borrows for luxury, consumption, or to indulge the taste of the men in power.
The current controversy about the Tinubu administration’s request for a N2.18 trillion supplementary budget must be seen in this light. The communication process has been bad. The management of the aftermath has equally been negligent. The details go beyond what is in the public domain.
The breakdowns show that the Federal Government is looking for more money for the Defence Headquarters, the Nigerian Army, Nigeria Navy, Nigerian Airforce, Defence Intelligence Agency, Police formations and command, the Federal Capital City Administration, Office of the National Security Adviser, Department of State Services, State House, Federal Ministry of Works; construction of highways in the North-East, North-West, South-East, South-West, South-South; agriculture, bridge interventions, and the Federal Ministry of Housing.
It must be noted that Nigerians have not complained about aspects of this supplementary budget that would be of benefit to the Nigerian people. They have complained however about aspects of the budget relating to luxury items, particularly with regard to the needs of the Nigerian Presidency, namely: the proposed request for N4 billion for the renovation of the residential quarters for the President in Abuja; renovation of the residential quarters of the Vice President (Abuja) – N2.5 billion; renovation of Dodan Barracks, Lagos, official residence of the President – N4 billion; renovation of official quarters of the VP (Lagos) – N3 billion; construction of office complex in the Presidential Villa – N4 billion; purchase of presidential yacht – N5 billion; purchase of vehicles for the Office of First Lady – N1.5 billion; purchase of SUVs for the Presidential Villa – N2.9 billion; and replacement of operational vehicles for the Presidency – N2.9 billion. These details have sparked outrage, and in an understandable sense.
When President Tinubu assumed office on 29 May, he declared to Nigerians that fuel subsidy was gone. This has brought great and untold hardships upon the people: increase in the cost of living, with headline inflation now at over 26 per cent, the highest in 18 years; crisis with the naira, which has been yo-yo-ing against the dollar, further driving up the cost of living and the widespread pandemic of poverty in the country.
The consistent message by the Tinubu administration is that the people should be prepared to make necessary sacrifices: things may be rough, we have been told, but they will get better surely, so we the people must be patient. The sheer commonsense of it would be that while the people of Nigeria are facing serious hardship, their leaders who are prescribing austerity would also demonstrate that they are with them, on their side, and ready to suffer along with the people, until the country gets out of the woods.
More so, they have a President who has been there at the battle front of democracy, at the barricades, and who cannot claim that he does not understand how the people feel. His wife even recently boasted that she and her family do not need Nigeria’s money. So, what is the problem? Why do they want new cars and renovated quarters? Why can’t they wait?
The problem is that the President is sending wrong signals with regard to the issues highlighted above that need to be addressed. There is a tendency for people in government to live in the Rose Garden and dismiss the people as ignorant. This would be a wrong approach as it was in the past, as it is now, as it would always be. The people have both the need and the right to know.
At the risk of over-simplification, it is the duty of the government to continuously explain to the people and re-build their trust and confidence, even when the matter appears mundane, self-evident, and self-explanatory. One of the major risks of democracy is that those who govern may be dealing with a patently dumb population, but the people must never be treated as dumb, because they may be quick to learn and ask the right questions and their dumbness could become historical wisdom. True sovereignty in that regard belongs to the people. Power belongs to the people, as the lesson has been learnt in such places as France in 1789, 1830, and 1848; and in Brazil in 1835, 1964 and 1972.
It is therefore important to listen carefully to what the people of Nigeria are saying. They seem to be saying that it is wrong for President Tinubu to tell them during the campaigns that brought him into office that he will reduce Nigeria’s debt stock, and would focus more on productivity, then now come around to announce that borrowing is not a crime.
Nobody has ever said that borrowing is a crime. It is what you do with the borrowed funds that matter; and when you make a promise, you keep it – as a matter of honour. We admit that most of the details in the supplementary budget are not controversial, except those sections relating to luxury.
New vehicles for the office of the First Lady! ‘What on earth is that?’, an average Nigerian who is finding it difficult to buy an ordinary recharge card, or buy fuel, is bound to ask. They didn’t vote for Mrs Tinubu, they seem to be asking. So why should her office show up in the budget of the Federal Republic of Nigeria? Again, the State House wants to change vehicles? Nigerians have had cause to draw attention to the example of President Hakainde Hichilema of Zambia who refused to change official vehicles after assuming office.
There is a video of the Zambia President out there, which simply says he wants to serve, not to indulge in the pleasures of office. For those who are in doubt, at least one Nigerian newspaper has written a full editorial on the subject: The Daily Trust asks: “Why should the Presidency make a budget for a new fleet of cars for the First Lady’s entourage? What happened to the vehicles used by former First Lady Aisha Buhari? What happened to the pool cars used by former President Muhammadu Buhari? What happened to the cars used by former Vice President Yemi Osinbajo? How many times will the Presidential lodges be renovated?” (Monday, 6 November).
But what really stands out, and looks like a scandal is the reported plan to buy a yacht for the President under the budget of the Nigerian Navy. A Yacht for the President, at a time when the people find it difficult to pay for transportation? The outrage has been loud and deafening.
As it happened, the House of Representatives resolved that the N5 billion earmarked for this yacht should be added to the proposed supplementary budget for students’ loans – in itself another controversial proposal, with the details so opaque. A budget is a proposal after all.
It is not binding until it is appropriated by the National Assembly. But the narrative that later came out is that the controversial Presidential Naval Yacht was actually ordered by the Nigerian Navy under the previous Buhari administration. It was delivered in June. It showed up in the 2022 Supplementary Budget proposed by President Tinubu because Nigeria has an obligation to pay on delivery.
International transactions are governed by strict laws under the rules of international trade. Without being pedantic by quoting the rules and structures of international trade, it looks like in this particular transaction, Nigeria has bought itself a presidential yacht. The country has an obligation to pay. The documents of sale have been received. The yacht has been delivered, and this really looks like a CIF sale. The seller is not obliged to worry about Nigeria’s domestic politics. The details of the contract of sale not being in the public domain, this is the best assumption that can be made.
However, what Nigerians must note is that Nigeria used to have a Presidential Yacht. Nigeria had a yacht called NNC Runa Yaro. It was later named AMARIYA. The luxury boat was seized from a former Governor of Rivers State and handed over to the Nigerian Navy. It was re-purposed for both luxury and training operations. President Shehu Shagari used it.
General Babangida also travelled on the yacht once to the Republic of Benin to attend an ECOWAS meeting. President Olusegun Obasanjo hosted visiting Presidents on the vessel. In 2011, the vessel was decommissioned. Indeed in 2018, President Muhammadu Buhari had asked for the vessel to be used to take the Prince of Wales to sea only to be told that the vessel had been decommissioned.
The Nigerian Navy was then told to source for a new option. This is the background, but it is not even the entire story. There is another story that the Nigerian Navy had in fact, as far back as June 2010, asked the Nigerian Government (Dr Goodluck Jonathan was President at the time) to review the Presidential Naval fleet and buy a new yacht ahead of the country’s 50th Independence celebrations. President Jonathan reportedly turned down the request.
Nigerians are angry again because not even the United States has a presidential yacht. The last Presidential yacht in the US, the USS Sequoia, was decommissioned in 1977 by President Jimmy Carter and sold off. The key difference is that whereas the Americans have many options, most Nigerian Naval vessels cannot function. They are like the refineries.
Even our flagship NNS Aradu cannot move, and with that being the case, Nigerians have every reason to be angry that anyone at all can talk about a yacht, the simple dictionary definition of which is about pleasure and luxury! Should there be a military challenge against Nigeria tomorrow, are we likely to go to the battlefield with a luxury boat and Big Brother Naija actors? But we have bought a luxury boat guys, and we are obliged to pay for it. While other countries of the world are getting serious, we are busy thinking of luxury for staff and wives and… What a country! No yacht for President Tinubu.
OPINION
Ibadan, Okija, Abuja, and the Deathly Fate of Mekunus
By Tunde Olusunle
Our ambassadors in the national parliament on Wednesday, December 18, 2024, spontaneously broke into a chant, serenading Bola Tinubu Nigeria’s President when he presented the 2025 draft budget to the bicameral body. On your mandate we shall stand gained ascendancy ahead of the 2022 presidential primary of the All Progressives Congress, (APC).
Today, it is probably at par with Nigeria’s national anthem in the circuit of the ruling political party.
Recall the viral video of the Minister for the Federal Capital Territory, (FCT), when he performed to the rhythm on one occasion of his visit to the office of the Chief of Staff to the President, Femi Gbajabiamila a few months ago. The reflex resort of the congressmen to the “mandate” tune on that occasion was in reaction to Tinubu’s joke at the presentation of the budget for 2025.The President had erroneously announced that he was presenting a draft expenditure proposal to the “11th” assembly! He was promptly reminded that we are still in the 10th assembly, in 2024. Tinubu quickly humoured that it could just as well mean that the entire parliament had been reelected for the 11th assembly which begins in 2027.
Tinubu’s budgetary presentation had to be staggered by 24 hours for undisclosed reasons. Reports after the Wednesday December 18 eventual outing, however, suggested that the executive arm of government needed the 24 hours between Tuesday December 17 and the eventual presentation, for very robust, backstage engagements with the legislature. There were feelers to the effect that Tinubu’s budget would be expressly shut down because of his recent propositions on tax reforms which has not gone down well with sections of the country and their representatives.
There are purported reports to the effect that while Members of the House of Representatives were advanced one billion naira each to augment the budgets for their “constituency projects,” Senators allegedly received a minimum of over 100 per cent more under the same nebulous heading. Such largesse should of necessity merit some singing.
While our parliamentarians decked in billowing robes and skyscraping headgears were clapping and caterwauling, giggling and guffawing that Wednesday December 18, 2024, deathly disaster struck in Ibadan, capital of Oyo State. The plan by a nongovernmental organisation led by Naomi Silekunola, a former wife of the Ooni of Ife, Adeyeye Enitan Ogunwusi which proposed to put smiles on the faces of a number of people this yuletide season, had gone awry.
Silekunola and her team intended to gift 5000 children below 13 years of age with a cash gift of N5000 each and offer each of them a food pack. There was a stampede at venue of the programme at Islamic High School, Bashorun District, Ibadan. Poor planning which precluded adequate security cordon, the absence of a standby medical team, among others, precipitated the death of 40 children. Many injured people are still hospitalised.
As though an angel of death was on a yuletide prowl, Okija in Anambra State was its next destination. A magnanimous well-to-do, Ernest Obiejesi, under the auspices of his Obi Jackson Foundation, availed the community of a rice consignment to be shared amongst the womenfolk in the morning of Saturday December 21, 2024, for the commemoration of Christmas. The raw ration came in 10 kilogramme bags of rice, out of which many people received just handfuls in bowls and cups. In the ensuing melee, 36 lives were lost, bodies littering the scene. Many limbs were bruised and broken, they are being patched up in various hospitals.
Despite popular assumptions that the streets of Abuja are paved with gold, the Okija tragedy was replicated, real-time, right at the very heart of Maitama, abode of the nouveau riche. Still in the spirit of the season, the Holy Trinity Catholic Church arranged to distribute food items to the less privileged as Christmas knocks on doors.
The Abuja Command of the Nigeria Police confirms that 13 people including four children died from the surging and trampling at the scene. Over a thousand people have been evacuated from the church, many of the wounded receiving medical attention at the proximal Maitama Hospital, just metres away from the church. Hunger for sure is a deconstructor of geography. Within four days in Nigeria this harmattan season, over 89 lives have lost while foraging for what to eat.
Instructively, a day before the Ibadan tragedy, loyalists and former aides of former President Muhammadu Buhari, flew to his hometown in Daura, to accord him an 82nd birthday surprise. Former Ogun State Governor, Ibikunle Amosun; Secretary to the Government of the Federation, (SGF), in Buhari’s regime, Mustapha Boss; Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, all visited a man largely credited with plunging Nigeria into its seemingly irrecoverable abyss.
Femi Adesina, Buhari’s media minder also sang his boss’ praises on the occasion. He described him as ore mekunu, a friend of the poor, an ascription I found totally out of sync with the realities of his boss’s stewardship. Let’s hope Adesina is seeing on the streets, the hordes of Nigerians, instalmentally transmogrified into pitiable sub- mekunus by Buhari’s eight-year dysfunctional leadership. About 100 Nigerians perished in four day not because of a natural disaster, nor at the theatres of insurgency and military curtailment. They died looking for just that measure of rice to placate their growling stomachs. They died just hours and days after Buhari’s beatification by beneficiaries of his prodigal rulership.
Nigeria has been plunged into the worst economic situation in a whole generation, since the advent of the All Progressives Congress, (APC) at the centre. Poverty has never been as grim and piercing as we’ve witnessed beginning from Buhari’s coming in 2015. Poverty has been ruthlessly weaponised, the poor ready to dance to the drum of a currency note, even a scoop of peanuts. The indicators have determinedly and consistently pointed southwards these past decade.
Inflation is spiralling towards the 35 per cent mark, the unaffordability of basic food items driving mekunus to assured Golgotha in cross-country scrounging, scrambles and stampedes. The same way Nigerians hustle to scoop petroleum products when a tanker falls to the ground, is the same way they throw decorum through perimeters when they are being insulted with sachets of pasta in the name of “palliatives” and “stomach infrastructure.”
The Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, (NBS), is allegedly being bullied by the state to recant on its former announcement that N2.3 Trillion was paid out as ransom to bandits, criminals and kidnappers in the first 10 months of this year. The NBS which has belatedly announced that its systems were hacked, is in good company with the Independent National Electoral Commission, (INEC). INEC’s servers and terrestrial equipment are perennially compromised when election figures tend towards victory for the opposition.
The President recently hailed the peaceful and transparent conduct of the presidential election in Ghana, recommending it as a model for Nigeria. Sadly, it should be the other way round. Other countries should take inspiration from the way we conduct our affairs in Nigeria.
Nigeria prides itself as the giant of Africa. Many African countries look up to Nigeria for guidance, for leadership. Our exploits in the liberation of countries like South Africa from apartheid, and the restoration of peace and democracy to neighbouring Gambia, Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, are well documented. We recently offset our outstanding dues to the Economic Community of West African States, (ECOWAS), totalling over N150Billion.
We do well at bragging and flexing our muscles, but fail where it matters the most. An essential characteristic of Ghanaian elections over the years, is the fact that the ruling party can be displaced by the opposition today. This allows the party so ousted to go re-strategise for the future. What do we do in Nigeria where election results are predetermined, where the electoral process is wholly corrupted, where true winners are intentionally dispossessed of their mandates and encouraged to seek redress in the judiciary? Didn’t a senior government official say in relation to Ghana’s exemplary election that a sitting government cannot be unseated in Nigeria? The stories of the backstage electoral thieveries anchored by INEC over the years will be told someday.
President Tinubu cancelled his official engagements for Saturday December 21, 2024, in honour of victims of the Ibadan, Okija and Abuja tragedies. Nigeria’s leadership must transcend the culinary indulgence and the merry-making occasioned by the yuletide to undertake very imperative introspection. There must be less dangerous, less dehumanising and less deathly avenues for lifting up the poor and indigent in our ranks.
The President is celebrated as some economic whiz kid. Enough of the demeaning, insulting and dubious handouts always purportedly passed on to the less-endowed by ways of very opaque “cash transfers” and the “lorry loads of palliatives.” Can someone please show me a register of transfers to my constituents back home in my community?
That scheme is wholly and totally a scam. Nigeria is not Somalia or Chad and similar countries ravaged by war and hunger, where the United Nations, (UN) and the Red Cross, drop dry rations from hovering helicopters into the hands of starving populations. Nigerians deserve a much, much better deal away from the most despairing status quo. Nigeria is too endowed to wilfully preside over the sustained pauperisation of its people.
Olusunle, PhD, Fellow of the Association of Nigerian Authors, (FANA), teaches Creative Writing at the University of Abuja.
OPINION
Tinubu and the Future of ECOWAS
By Reuben Abati
Two major meetings were held over the weekend that just passed that have implications for the future of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the possible resolution or otherwise of political developments among member-states in the last two to three years, with implications for the future of the sub-regional organisation.
ECOWAS was established in May 1975, when 15 West African states signed the Treaty of Lagos to establish a platform for the promotion of economic integration. This particular treaty was revised on July 24 1993, but the essential purpose of ECOWAS has remained consistent: trade facilitation, free movement of persons and goods, solidarity, promotion of human rights and peace.The sixteenth member joined in 1977, making the membership 16. In addition to its many guidelines and principles, ECOWAS has a general framework which also guides protocols and relations among members. In July 1991, it adopted the Declaration of Political Principles as a cardinal rule, and in 2001, the ECOWAS Supplementary Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance. One of those protocols is the underlying trigger for this commentary, to wit: the principle of customary international law enshrined in Article 2 (4) of the 1945 UN Charter which binds member-states against the use of force as a means of changing governments, in the absence of armed attack or self-defence.
In 1978, ECOWAS signed a protocol on non-aggression against member states and in 1981, members agreed that in the event of any act of aggression against a member, they would come together in mutual self-defence and protect the victim-state to ensure peace, security and stability, by military means if possible and if inevitable, as seen in the interventions of ECOMOG in Liberia (1990) and Sierra Leone (1998). Even the African Union (AU) enabled by its Article 4(h) can be called upon to intervene when the basic protocols have been breached. This however is a slightly complicated area of the subject which we need not bring into this commentary.
What we know is that ECOWAS specifically sees pro-democratic intervention as its bounden duty, but the effectuation of this has been a problem in the sub-region over the years and to cite a recent example, in 2016, when ECOWAS threatened to deploy a standby ECOWAS force in The Gambia to restore the people’s wish if Yahya Jammeh refused to leave office. Jammeh was eased out and a standby force did not have to intervene.
But a turning point came for ECOWAS when the military seized power in Mali in 2020 and 2021, Guinea in 2021, Burkina Faso in 2022, and Niger in July 2023. ECOWAS, with Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu as Chair, thought it needed to intervene to return these countries to democracy, the rise of military juntas in the sub-region being a threat to democratic consolidation. ECOWAS suspended the states in line with its protocols and proceeded to impose political and economic sanctions. It threatened to deploy troops if it became necessary. This was an act of political miscalculation.
In the four countries, there were civilian protests against ECOWAS, particularly in former French colonies of Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali. The more interesting part of it is that the ECOWAS was accused of being too pro-French. In Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, the people publicly denounced continued association with France and specifically in Niger, the people openly waved Russian flags and pulled down French flags.
From Senegal to Niger, a wave of rebellion erupted in the former colonies, in what signalled a creeping failure of French relations with its former colonies in Africa. Senegal has had to shut down French military bases to assert its sovereignty, in Burkina Faso the military junta revoked gold permits that had been awarded to French companies, in Niger, the government similarly cancelled the mining permit of Orano, the French nuclear producer that runs the uranium mines in that country.
In addition, Niger revoked its tax co-operation treaties with France as also did Mali, which broke off from its defence accord with France, and its 11 colonial agreements with the former overlord. In the vacuum created by these new realities, Russia and its Wagner group became the favourite partner of former French colonies in West Africa. The Sahel region has been a hotbed of violence and terrorism and naturally, there were concerns about the implications of the presence of Russia and Wagner in the sub-region and the festering anti-West sentiments in the backyard of ECOWAS members. ECOWAS eventually had to review its threat of sanctions, and military action and adopted the options of diplomacy and dialogue.
This achieved little or nothing. In January 2024, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger announced their decision to quit ECOWAS. They formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) as their own confederation as an alternative to ECOWAS. Their departure under Article 91 of the Revised ECOWAS Treaty would become effective on January 29, 2025. The resort to diplomacy, an afterthought by ECOWAS also yielded no results. In July, ECOWAS appointed President Bassirou Faye of Senegal as the mediator with the aggrieved countries. President Faure Gnassingbe of Togo was also sent on diplomatic shuttles to Niger. President Tinubu as ECOWAS Chairman, also sent other envoys to the Sahel.
Barely a month before the January deadline, there was a meeting of Ministers of Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali in Niamey last Saturday, December 14, where they reiterated that the departure of the three countries from ECOWAS, effective January 29, 2025, is “irreversible.” They however also resolved that the three countries would remain visa-free for all ECOWAS countries after the exit. While the latter resolution may alleviate fears about the free movement of goods and services, there is still the residual challenge of insecurity in the Sahel and the threat of a further tumultuous season in that part of West Africa with wider implications for regional peace.
It is perhaps out of this realisation that the Authority of Heads of State and Governments at its 66th Ordinary Summit last weekend, Sunday, December 15 at the State House in Abuja, decided to vary Article 91 of the Revised Treaty and granted the departing trio an extension of six months from January 29 to July 29. This is basically to create room for further diplomatic negotiations in the hope that the three countries can be brought back into the fold. In Niamey, on Saturday, the AES Ministers still made it clear that ECOWAS leaders are too subservient to France.
Without being specific, they may well have been referring to President Tinubu who recently returned from France where he was treated to a lavish and grand reception by President Emmanuel Macron. It remains to be seen whether the AES would reverse itself. It is a long wait but as certain as daylight, July 29, 2025 would soon be upon us. In the meantime, the ECOWAS Commission has been directed to begin work on the necessary withdrawal formalities, while the mediator continues with last-ditch efforts to keep the dream of the founding fathers of ECOWAS alive, giving the AES an opportunity to have a re-think.
It is further instructive that at the ECOWAS meeting of Heads of States and Governments, President Tinubu, Chairman, took time out to praise the just concluded general elections in Ghana and parliamentary elections in Senegal. He even praised Ghana’s Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) who conceded defeat to the candidate of the opposition, President John Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC). He praised the government and people of Ghana for their maturity. This was a subtle dig at the leaders of the West African countries where the military chose to resort to force and aggression. Without a doubt, the rise of military juntas poses a threat to democracy in West Africa and peace in the region. The romance of the juntas with Russia and China dangerously positions the region as a territory for proxy conflicts among major Western powers. It is an ill-wind. ECOWAS needs to do more to persuade the errant countries to restore constitutional order. The leaders also need to reinvent and retool the organisation.
By next July, it will be 50 years since ECOWAS was established. It would be pertinent to ask: how has the body fared? Has it so far fulfilled the ambitions of its founding fathers? Today, only one of those leaders who established ECOWAS in 1975 is still alive. Would General Yakubu Gowon of Nigeria be proud of what ECOWAS has become? What are the challenges facing the body? How can it be reformed? Mutual suspicion among the various blocs: Anglophone, Francophone and Lusophone has been a major issue for ECOWAS: how can the goal of integration be better realised? In 50 years, whatever the challenges may have been, it can be said that ECOWAS has been pivotal in forging cooperation, integration and trade within the region. ECOWAS in 2010 adopted Vision 2020, and also later a Vision 2050 roadmap to deepen the original objectives of the association.
There may have been challenges: insecurity in the Sahel, Boko Haram in the Lake Chad Basin, Ebola, COVID-19 and the emergent threat of military juntas, but on the whole, the main achievements of the body deserve to be celebrated. ECOWAS fought to restore peace in Liberia and Sierra Leone, and has been vocal in insisting on good governance. There are hitches in person-to-person relations within the body, over trade, commerce and space, but the free movement of goods and services has been largely beneficial. ECOWAS ranks probably as the most successful regional economic bloc in the continent, in terms of conflict management.
But ECOWAS has lost steam. It needs re-organisation. It is unfortunate that the same ECOWAS that acted decisively in Liberia, Sierra Leone and The Gambia is now the same body that is now being treated scornfully by a group of military adventurists who have reversed democratic progress in the Sahel. Their effrontery is fuelled by the descent into poverty and anomie in their countries. The clamour for change that compelled the people of Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea and Niger to embrace the military is simply their frustration with the leaders in those countries. The people seek change and they embrace it in whatever shape it presents itself, with high expectations too, because they no longer trust their leaders who have alienated them and placed a greater accent on their own elite well-being rather than the common good for the people’s benefit.
The people are led by persons who promote injustice, inequality, and nepotism. They rig elections and do not allow the people’s votes to count. When the military intervenes, the people see the intervention as a form of liberation from the shackles of oppression. In Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali, they trooped to the streets in jubilation, almost like the situation today in Syria with the fall of Bashar Assad and the Assad dynasty, one of the most murderous ruling houses in the Middle East which clung to power for 54 years. In Mali in August 2020, when Mali’s President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita was removed in a military coup over allegations of corruption, fraud and electoral violence, the people were joyous. They carried placards saying “This isn’t a coup. It is a Revolution”. There was yet another coup in May 2021. Similarly in Niger in 2023, thousands of people gathered to hail the generals who led the coup in that country. The urgent matter that West Africa needs to resolve is the challenge of good leadership and governance.
There is a need at the organisational level for a re-dedication to the ideals of ECOWAS, and to develop a higher sense of belonging among the member-states and the over 420 million people that make up the region. As ECOWAS steps into its 50th year, it is in urgent need of reform and we need to see the members being faithful. At the last meeting of the ECOWAS Authority of Heads of States and Governments, Omar Alieu Touray, President of the ECOWAS Commission, commended Nigeria for having paid up its community levies for 2023, with the 2024 levy paid up to July this year. He advised other member states to emulate Nigeria’s example. I guess it has become a habit among ECOWAS members to allow Nigeria to do the heavy lifting in terms of funding while others tag along and yet enjoy the benefits of membership.
It is important that all parties pay their levies as and when due. The various structures of the body must be overhauled to ensure equity and deepen trade facilitation. The ideals of free movement of persons across the region should be enhanced. It must be possible for any national of an ECOWAS state to live and work in any of the member states without being subjected to undue discrimination or harassment. The celebration of ECOWAS at 50 must be an occasion for sober reflection and renewal. President Bola Tinubu was elected for a second term as chairman of ECOWAS in July 2024. He would preside over the 50th-anniversary celebrations before handing over the seat in July 2025. He may have listed some of his achievements as ECOWAS chairman at the 66th Ordinary session in Abuja; he would be required to give a fuller account of his tenure and the status of ECOWAS as part of the 50th anniversary. There is a lot more that can be done.
OPINION
Still on State Police
By Dakuku Peterside
When a policy fails to factor in public response to its benefits and drawbacks, success takes the backseat. Ignoring public behaviour often results in poor implementation and unintended consequences.
In Nigeria, a nation grappling with complex and diverse security challenges, the limitations of centralised policing have become glaringly evident.
Rising crime rates, from terrorism and banditry to cybercrime and kidnapping, expose the inadequacies of the current federal system. The call for state police is not just a matter of political discourse; it is a necessary step toward securing the lives and property of Nigerians.This proposal has gained unprecedented traction across regional and political divides, signalling that the time is ripe for this crucial reform.
The urgency of decentralising policing by introducing state police could provide the much-needed local focus to counter insecurity while fostering accountability and community trust. This vision aligns with global best practices and offers hope for a safer and more prosperous Nigeria, where localised and specialised law enforcement can effectively address the diverse security needs of the population.Throughout history, nations have recognised the need for adaptable and localised law enforcement structures. In the early 20th century, the United States established state police forces to address rising crime and extend law enforcement beyond the capabilities of local authorities. The Pennsylvania State Police, formed in 1905, became the first uniformed state law enforcement agency in the U.S., designed to handle challenges that local sheriffs and municipal officers could not adequately address. This included labour unrest in coal mines and maintaining order in rural areas without sufficient local law enforcement. Over time, state police forces such as the Texas Rangers and California Highway Patrol expanded their scope, dealing with issues from highway safety to organised crime. These forces were pivotal in ensuring law enforcement matched the complexities of an industrialising and urbanising society.
The U.S. experience provides a critical lesson for Nigeria: decentralisation enhances law enforcement’s ability to respond to local needs. For instance, during the Prohibition era, state police units were instrumental in curbing illicit alcohol trade in their jurisdictions, a task federal authorities alone needed help to handle effectively. Similarly, the adaptability of state police allowed them to pioneer specialised units, such as cybercrime task forces in recent decades, which have become crucial in tackling modern criminal activities.
Nigeria’s security challenges, including insurgencies in the North and urban crimes in Lagos and Abuja, could greatly benefit from similar localised and specialised approaches. For instance, a state police unit in Lagos could prioritise urban crimes such as theft and traffic-related offences, while a unit in Borno might focus on counterterrorism efforts against Boko Haram insurgents. This targeted approach could lead to more effective solutions than a one-size-fits-all federal system.
Globally, decentralised policing systems offer valuable lessons. Countries like Canada, India, and South Africa demonstrate how local accountability and responsiveness enhance security. Canada’s provincial police forces work collaboratively with municipal and federal agencies to address diverse security needs. In India, state police forces are indispensable in combating localised crimes and maintaining law and order, especially in states with unique cultural and geographical contexts.
For example, Maharashtra’s state police in India have implemented technology-driven initiatives to combat cybercrime, which would be impossible under a rigid centralised system. These systems are bolstered by robust oversight mechanisms to prevent misuse, ensuring their effectiveness and integrity. Nigeria can draw inspiration from these examples, adapting these practices to suit its unique challenges. This global perspective further strengthens the argument for the state police proposal in Nigeria.
The current structure of Nigeria’s federal police reveals its limitations. With approximately 370,000 officers, the police-citizen ratio is about 1:650, significantly higher than the UN-recommended ratio of 1:450. This shortfall is glaring in a nation of over 220 million people, where security challenges vary dramatically across geopolitical zones. The Inspector-General of Police has highlighted the need for an additional 190,000 personnel, yet estimates suggest that Nigeria requires up to 2.5 million officers for effective policing. Over the past decade, crime rates have surged by over 30%, with kidnapping, banditry, terrorism, and cybercrime becoming increasingly sophisticated and prevalent. In 2022 alone, there were over 3,500 reported kidnapping incidents nationwide, underlining the urgent need for localised and agile policing responses. The introduction of state police could help address this issue by allowing for a more targeted allocation of resources based on regional security needs, potentially improving the police-citizen ratio and overall security.
Support for state police has grown significantly among policymakers, security experts, and civil society groups. A growing consensus is that decentralising policing would empower local authorities and enhance operational efficiency. Even state governors from historically divided northern and southern regions have united in supporting state police. One significant highlight of the 147th National Economic Council (NEC) is a new consensus by all state governments on establishing state police. However, this initiative requires a more robust but speedy engagement to align it with the local cultural context, ensuring that it is appreciated and supported by the citizens it aims to serve. Citizen engagement is not just a formality, but a crucial step to ensure public understanding and support for the state police proposal.
Building trust between state police and local communities is a crucial advantage of this reform. Effective local policing initiatives can foster relationships that build trust and cooperation, especially in Nigeria, where the trust deficit is high. Trust is an essential component of crime fighting. Innovative local community-police liaison arrangements and other community-focused programs can strengthen these ties, creating an environment of mutual respect and collaboration. When police officers understand their communities’ cultural and societal dynamics, they are better equipped to address security challenges and maintain peace. The active participation and trust of the Nigerian public in this reform process are crucial for its success.
Concerns about the potential misuse of state police for political purposes are valid but can be systematically addressed. Abuse of State Independent Electoral Commissions (SIEC) by state governors is often cited. This is another reason why extensive and targeted citizen engagement is key before putting the law in place. Safeguards must be designed and implemented to prevent governors from exploiting state police for political and electoral manipulation purposes, personal gain, or to feed their authoritarian appetite.
Laws prohibiting state police involvement in electoral matters and empowering oversight bodies can ensure neutrality. Clear delineation of the roles and responsibilities of state and federal police will also be essential to avoid jurisdictional conflicts. Establishing a framework for collaboration and information-sharing between the two levels of law enforcement will further enhance effectiveness. However, these measures will require careful planning and execution to ensure their efficacy and address potential challenges such as resistance to change and extensive training and capacity building.
Independent regulatory bodies are critical to ensuring accountability and preventing abuse. A State Police Security Commission (SPSC), comprising representatives from civil society, established professional bodies, legal experts, and public security professionals, could oversee state police operations. Regular audits and public reporting ensure transparency. Additionally, a robust judiciary is essential to protect citizens from potential abuses. Judicial reforms that enhance the independence and efficiency of courts would be vital in supporting this transition. For instance, in Canada, provincial ombudspersons have played pivotal roles in monitoring police misconduct, providing Nigeria with a possible blueprint for ensuring accountability.
Strengthening relationships between police and communities through genuine engagement and collaborative problem-solving must remain a priority. Establishing community advisory boards can provide platforms for dialogue and accountability. Actionable trust-building initiatives, such as open-door policies and periodic town hall meetings, should replace superficial slogans like “Police is your friend.”
Addressing insecurity also requires holistic solutions. Investments in education, healthcare, and youth empowerment are essential for tackling the root causes of crime. Integrating vocational training and social services into crime prevention strategies would complement policing reforms, creating a foundation for sustainable security. For example, a similar approach in India’s Kerala state led to a 40% reduction in youth crime over a decade.
Introducing state police in Nigeria represents a transformative opportunity to address the nation’s security crisis. While challenges are inevitable, they should not deter progress. Beginning the decentralisation process will allow for the identification and resolution of potential issues as they arise. The widespread consensus around reforming Nigeria’s policing architecture underscores the urgency of this change. With proper safeguards, political will, and public support, state police can become a cornerstone of a more secure, equitable, and prosperous Nigeria.
A prerequisite is the government’s robust public engagement and orientation programme to get the complete buy-in of all stakeholders, including the National Assembly, the state assembly and the masses. The time to act is now, and this reform must be embraced as a step toward a brighter and safer future for all Nigerians. Establishing state police would signify a shift in policy and a bold reimagining of Nigeria’s approach to security—one that prioritises the people, respects regional diversity, and lays the foundation for sustainable peace and progress.