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Bayelsa Guber Poll: Survey Gives Diri Overwhelming Victory in Eight LGAs

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From Mike Tayese, Yenagoa

A survey report conducted on the forthcoming Gubernatorial Election in Bayelsa State indicates that the incumbent Governor, Senator Douye Diri, will win the election in the eight Local Government Areas of the State.

The Opinion Poll initiated by the Bayelsa Government New Media Team was conducted by a team of six researchers and 50 Research Assistants for two months covering the period of June and July, 2023.



The survey conducted across 211 communities  randomly selected from the 24 State Constituencies administered questionnaire to 2,400 respondents who confirmed to have their Permanent Voter Cards and intend to cast their votes in the November 11 election.


A total of 100 persons were selected in each of the constituency for the survey of samples drawn from men, women and youths, while 24 opinion leaders were also interviewed across the constituencies.

The poll was narrowed to the three supposedly major contenders in the election being the incumbent, Governor Douye Diri of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP),  the former Governor and immediate past Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Chief Timipre Sylva of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Engr. Udengs Eradiri of Labour Party.

The survey was based on antecedents of each candidate, the zoning arrangement, impact on people over time particularly in the rural communities, the popularity among the people, performance of political parties in the last general election and Bayelsa’s key stakeholders/leaders backing each of the candidate.

Results derived from experts’ analysis of the field report indicates that Diri is expected to return the highest votes from his home Local Government Area, Kolokuma/Opokuma.

88 per cent of the respondents said they will vote for the incumbent, only 5 per cent of respondents said they will vote for Sylva of the APC, and 4 per cent of respondents to vote Eradiri  while 3 per cent are undecided.

The next appreciable result is from Sagbama Local Government Area, home LGA of the immediate past Governor and incumbent Senator representing Bayelsa West, Henry Seriake Dickson, where 77 per cent of the respondents said they will vote for Diri as against 10 per cent which indicated willingness to vote for Sylva of APC.

In Ekeremor Local Government Area, 72 per cent respondents said they will vote for Diri of PDP while 11 per cent will vote for Sylva.

The respondents said they will through the ballot return the kind gesture of the governor to him for the completion of the Sagbama-Ekeremor road where several communities can now be accessed by road instead of travelling by water.

The survey report indicated that Diri is expected to win massively even in LGAs believed to have opposed him in the 2019 guber election. The survey clearly puts the incumbent Governor Diri ahead in Nembe LGA with 70 per cent, Brass (62 per cent), Ogbia (66 per cent), Southern Ijaw (63 per cent) and the State capital, Yenagoa Local Government Area (70 per cent).

Interestingly, 36 per cent of APC members who responded to the questionnaire said they will vote for Douye Diri because of his peaceful disposition and for opening up several riverine communities with roads.

Chief Timipre Sylva of APC is expected to have his highest votes of 33 per cent from his home Local Government Area of Brass followed by Yenagoa LGA where only 26 per cent of the respondents said they will vote for him.

The survey report did not give Eradiri of LP any chance as only 9 per cent of respondents in Ogbia LGA, being the best figure said they will vote him and followed by the 8 per cent respondents in Yenagoa LGA, despite being his home Local Government Area.

Twenty four opinion leaders were also interviewed in each of the 24 constituencies and their responses corroborated the survey report to the effect that the incumbent Governor, Sen. Diri, remains the best choice for governorship at this time bearing in mind that he has performed significantly well in the different sectors covering security, sports, education, health, roads construction, youth and women empowerment, skills acquisition and better welfare for civil servants including the gradual payment of outstanding gratuities to retirees.

Fifteen of the opinion leaders particularly emphasised that the incumbent Governor has become a symbol of peace in the State and has demonstrated genuine commitment as a bridge builder who has restored security across the state.

“Governor Diri is a likeable person. He has shown compassion and I see him a good man. That is the kind of leader we need now in Bayelsa State. He smiles from his inner heart. He does not care whether you are APC or PDP, he identifies with all. That’s a good quality for a great leader. Again, he is doing so much projects particularly the various road projects connecting our riverine communities. We are so happy with the Nembe-Brass road. We understand that the former President, Goodluck Jonathan and immediate past Governor Seriake Dickson are also supporting the current Governor for another term”, an opinion leader in Nembe Local Government Area said.

There were a few respondents still undecided on the candidate to vote among the three leading candidates.

The Director, New Media, Dr. Kola Oredipe, who commissioned the experts to carry out the survey said he stands by the poll result and believes the outcome is the reality among prospective voters in Bayelsa State come November 11, 2023. 

Foreign News

Trump’s Historic Peace Deal for DR Congo Shattered after Rebels Seize Key City

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US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said Rwanda’s actions in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo are “a clear violation of” the peace deal brokered by Donald Trump last week.

In a post on X, he said the US would “take action to ensure promises made to the President are kept”, without going into details.

Trump hailed the deal signed with great fanfare in Washington between DR Congo’s President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame as “historic” and “a great day for Africa, great day for the world”.

But the M23 rebel group said it has “fully liberated” the key city of Uvira in an offensive the US and European powers say is backed by Rwanda.

UN experts have previously accused it of having “de facto control” of the rebel force’s operations.

Rwanda denies the allegations, however, its presence in Washington was a tacit acknowledgment of its influence over the M23.

The rebels were not signatories to Trump’s deal – and have been taking part in a parallel peace process led by Qatar, a US ally.

The latest fighting risks further escalating an already deeply complex conflict.

Prof Jason Stearns, a Canada-based political scientist who specialises in the region, said that the view in M23 circles was that “they need more leverage in the negotiations”, while the feeling in the Rwandan government is that Tshisekedi cannot be trusted.

He added that the assault on Uvira, in South Kivu province, “flies in the face of all the negotiations that are under way”.

The M23’s new offensive in South Kivu started a few days before Kagame and Tshisekedi flew to Washington last week to ratify the agreement first hammered out in June.

Bram Verelst, a Burundi-based researcher with the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) think-tank, said the assault appeared to be an attempt to force Burundi to withdraw the troops it had in eastern DR Congo backing the army against the rebel forces and Rwanda.

He pointed out that Uvira – which lies just 27km (17 miles) from Burundi’s capital, Bujumbura, on the northern tip of Lake Tanganyika – was of strategic importance because of the presence of at least 10,000 Burundian troops in South Kivu.

Yale Ford, an Africa Analyst for the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, pointed out that Uvira, which had a population of about 700,000, was the DR Congo government’s last major foothold and military hub in South Kivu.

He added that the M23 was now likely to establish a parallel administration in the city, and use its military gains “as a bargaining chip in peace talks”.

As for the DR Congo government, it has not acknowledged its latest military setback, but says that the “gravity of the situation is compounded by the now proven risk of regional conflagration”.

Burundi has been a natural ally of DR Congo for years because of its enmity with Rwanda.

Both accuse the other of backing rebel groups seeking to overthrow their respective governments.

The neighbours share a similar language and ethnic make-up – with Tutsi and Hutu communities often vying for power – and both have suffered terrible ethnic-based massacres.

But unlike Rwanda, which is headed by a Tutsi president, the majority Hutus are in power in Burundi.

Burundi’s government fears that if the M23 cements its presence in South Kivu, it would strengthen a Burundian rebel group called Red Tabara.

Based in South Kivu, it is mainly made up of Tutsis – and has attacked Burundi in the past.

In an apparent attempt to placate Burundi’s fears, the M23 said it had “no sights beyond our national borders”.

Burundi has shut its border with DR Congo, but, according to Mr Verelst, it is still allowing people to cross into its territory after carrying out security checks.

Aid agencies say that about 50,000 people have fled into Burundi in the past week.

Burundian troops – along with the Congolese army and allied militias – fought to block the rebel advance towards Uvira, but the city itself fell “without much fighting”, Verelst said.

The fall of Uvira would hit Burundi’s already struggling economy as the country has been suffering from a severe shortage of foreign currency and fuel, and had been heavily dependent on eastern DR Congo for both, he said.

The M23 began a major advance earlier this year when it captured Goma, the capital of North Kivu province, on the border with Rwanda.

At the time, South African troops were deployed to help DR Congo’s army, but they were forced to withdraw after the M23 seized the city in January.

Shortly afterwards the rebels captured the next big city in eastern DR Congo, Bukavu, capital of South Kivu.

The move on Uvira came after the rebels broke the defence lines of the DR Congo army, militias allied with it and Burundian troops.

Prof Stearns said the M23 was estimated to have more than 10,000 fighters, but there was likely to have been an “Influx” of Rwandan troops for the recent offensive to capture Uvira.

The US lays the blame for the recent fighting squarely on Rwanda.

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Foreign News

Five Arrested over Plot to Attack German Christmas Market

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Five men have been arrested in Germany suspected of being involved in a plot to drive a vehicle into people at a Christmas market.

Three Moroccans, an Egyptian and a Syrian were detained on Friday over the plan to target a market in the southern Bavarian state. Authorities said they suspected an “Islamist motive”.

Prosecutors said the Egyptian – a 56-year-old – was alleged to have “called for a vehicle attack… with the aim of killing or injuring as many people as possible”.

The Moroccans allegedly agreed to carry out the attack.

Officials in Germany have been on high alert after previous attacks at Christmas markets, including in Magdeburg last December that killed six people.

Authorities did not say when the planned attack was supposed to take place or which market was the target, though said they believed it to be one in the Dingolfing-Landau area, north east of Munich.

German newspaper Bild reported the Egyptian man was an imam at a mosque in the area.

Police said the Moroccan men – aged 30, 28 and 22 – were arrested accused of having agreed to commit murder, while the Syrian man, a 37-year-old, was accused of encouraging the suspects “in their decision to commit the crime”.

The five suspects appeared before a magistrate on Saturday and remain in custody.

Joachim Herrmann, Bavaria’s state interior minister, told Bild the “excellent cooperation between our security services” had helped to prevent “a potentially Islamist-motivated attack”.

Christmas markets are popular festive attractions throughout Germany, frequently attracting large crowds and significant tourism.

Security at events has been increased in recent years, since an attack in Berlin in 2016 when a man drove a lorry into a market crowd, killing 12 people.

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NEWS

NAF Begins Nationwide Aptitude Test for 2025 Recruitment of 20,000 Candidates

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No fewer than 20,000 applicants nationwide are participating in the Nigerian Air Force (NAF) Zonal General Aptitude Test for the 2025 Basic Military Training Course (BMTC) 46 recruitment exercise.

The Director, Public Relations and Information of NAF, Air Commodore Ehimen Ejodame, in a statement on Sunday, said the aptitude test began on Saturday across the country.

Ejodame, who described the test as a key stage of the recruitment process, said, it was being conducted simultaneously at 15 zonal centres located in Sokoto, Minna, Kaduna, Kano, Bauchi, Maiduguri, Yola, Makurdi, Jos, Ilorin, Ipetu-Ijesa, Enugu, Benin, Port Harcourt and Ikeja.

He said the nationwide spread of the centres reflected NAF’s commitment to inclusiveness, equal opportunity and a transparent, merit-based recruitment system that allows qualified Nigerians from all parts of the country to compete fairly.

According to him, the large turnout underscores the sustained confidence of Nigerian youths in the Air Force as a disciplined, professional and patriotic institution, as well as its resolve to attract capable, motivated and resilient personnel to strengthen national defence and internal security operations.

Speaking on the exercise, the Chief of the Air Staff (CAS), Air Marshal Sunday Aneke, said the recruitment process was guided by fairness, integrity and strict adherence to established standards.

According to CAS, the NAF remains firmly committed to recruiting the best candidates by merit, “as the quality of our personnel is fundamental to operational effectiveness and the successful execution of our constitutional mandate.”

He added that the aptitude test was a critical step toward building a motivated and mission-ready force, assuring Nigerians of the NAF’s continued support to internal security operations and the protection of lives and property.

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