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Changing Nature of Covid: Is it Just a Regular Winter Bug Now?

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By Nick Triggle

Before the pandemic, Sally enjoyed regular trips abroad and played golf three or four times a week, socialising with the other members at her club.

Now in her mid-70s, she enjoys good health. But despite having been vaccinated against Covid, Sally says the virus has changed her approach to life.

“I’ve not been on a plane since the pandemic started,” she says.

“I just don’t think it is worth the risk.

“I still play lots of golf – and in the summer, I enjoy having a drink on the terrace. But I don’t really do any socialising inside. I skip the Christmas parties and other events when the weather turns.

Sally is not alone, with research suggesting anxiety over Covid continues. And in recent weeks, it appears to have intensified, with internet searches for Covid having shot up with news of a new variant and a rise in hospital admissions.

But there is plenty of evidence to suggest the virus is on its way to becoming just another respiratory bug to contend with, alongside flu and others maybe lesser known, such as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), rhinorvirus and adenovirus.

And last winter, there were estimated to be more flu deaths than Covid ones, in England – just over 14,000 compared with 10,000 – according to the UK Health Security Agency.

That comes as no surprise to Prof Paul Hunter, an infectious-diseases expert at the University of East Anglia.

The immunity to serious illness built up from vaccination and infection means the death rate per Covid infection is now well below that of flu, he says.

Although there was a lot more Covid around in 2022, with a series of peaks over the 12 months, rather than it being largely confined to the winter months like other respiratory viruses – so for the year as a whole, the Covid death toll would outstrip that of flu.

But, crucially, that trend has not been repeated in 2023. Instead, there is a much more seasonal pattern to the virus, with a long lull during spring and summer.

Covid is “well on the way” to becoming seasonal, Prof Hunter says, with flu likely to cause more deaths from now on. And eventually, Covid will become “just another cause of the common cold”, like the other coronaviruses that circulate.

Prof Adam Kucharski, who advised the government during the pandemic, agrees there are positive signs but remains a little more cautious.

“With flu, we see a lot of pre-existing immunity,” Prof Kucharski says, “which makes it difficult to spread outside of winter.”

The colder months tip the balance, he says, because of more indoor mixing and lower temperatures, which affect susceptibility to infection as well as allowing the virus to survive for longer outside.

“The question with Covid is whether it can evolve enough to escape the immunity built up and cause problems outside of winter,” Prof Kucharski says.

“We are seeing hints of seasonality but I wouldn’t say we’re definitely there.”

But people can find it difficult to put Covid in context, Prof Kucharski says, pointing out there is still much more data on Covid than other respiratory viruses.

“Data is good for scientists but it can cause alarm when interpreted wrongly,” Prof Kucharski says. “With recent new variants, we’ve sometimes seen people exaggerate the level of risk – that’s not helpful.”

Prof Mike Tildesley, a modeller in infectious diseases, at the University of Warwick, is also encouraged by changes in Covid but says it could still end up causing more deaths than flu this winter.

“There was quite a rebound for flu last year,” he says, “partly because immunity was down following a few years of not much flu circulating – so we may see the picture change this winter.”

It is also hard to judge to what extent Covid deaths are coming on top – or instead – of flu. Combined, the number of Covid and flu deaths last winter was on a par with the worst two winters of the past decade.

The changing nature of Covid also poses an interesting question about testing – is there any point to it?

The era of free Covid tests may be over but plenty of people still test when they feel ill. Although, the experts have their doubts about whether this is entirely necessary.

“If you have symptoms,” Prof Tildesley says, “the question you have to ask yourself is whether you would do anything different if you tested and it wasn’t Covid.

“If there is one thing we have learnt from the pandemic, it is the importance of trying to stay away from people if you are ill with a respiratory virus. That is as true for flu and other respiratory viruses as it is for Covid.”

Prof Hunter agrees: “The only situation where it is useful is if you are vulnerable with a lung condition and would benefit from antivirals.”

So what continues to hold some people back?

Dr Martyn Quigley, a psychologist from Swansea University, says: “Covid had a huge impact on our lives – unlike anything we have lived through, for most – and for some, uncertainty and worry persist even though the risks have changed.

“There are still lots of social cues – hand sanitiser, signs and screens in shops – that remind us of what happened.

“It is similar with data. It is that unique history that is associated with Covid that induces worry and concern. It will take a long time for that to go for those affected in this way.” BBC

Health

FG Promises Access To Eye Care For Every Nigerian

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Dr Iziaq Salako, the Minister of State for Health and Social Welfare says the Federal Government will ensure that every Nigerian has access to the eye care they need.

Salako said this in Abuja on Thursday at the Eyeball Summit organized by the Optometrists and Dispensing Opticians Registration Board of Nigeria (ODORBN).

The summit’s theme was “Shaping the Future of Eye Care in Nigeria: Strengthening Systems Through Strategic Alliances”.

According to Salako, the theme is quite apt and aligns with the ministry’s current line of investment in the health sector.

He said that it also aligned with the overall goal of the Renewed Hope Agenda to ensure that Nigerians are provided with the healthcare they need at any point in time without financial hardship.

He said that in the face of rising challenges, such as the increasing burden of visual impairment and the growing demand for eye care services, the ministry may not address the issue of eye health in isolation.

“By working together, we can ensure that every Nigerian, regardless of their geographical location or economic status, has access to the eye care they need.

“This summit serves as an important platform to collectively strategise and propose concrete solutions that can strengthen the eye care system in Nigeria.

“It can not be optimally productive without strategic alliances, collaboration and cooperation.

“It is through partnerships that we can pool resources, share expertise and develop innovative solutions to overcome the gaps in eye care provision,” Salako said .

According to him, it will include increasing awareness about the importance of regular eye check-ups, ensuring that the necessary infrastructure and human resources are in place to support the delivery of services.

He said that the partnership would also promote eye health friendly policies and provide continuous professional development training to ensure that eye health care givers are up to date in their knowledge and skills.

“The government is committed to ensuring that you have the necessary tools, policies, and an enabling environment to carry out your work effectively.

“Under this administration, we will continue to expand access to affordable eye care services, which are critical in a country where a large proportion of the population live in underserved areas,” he said.

Dr Obinna Awiaka, Registrar of the board, said that the summit was, a testament to their collective commitment, resilience, and aspiration.

Awiaka said that it symbolised the board’s relentless pursuit of excellence, the prioritisation of knowledge, innovation, partnership, and an unyielding devotion to preserving and enhancing the gift of sight for all Nigerians.

According to him, in an era marked by rapid technological change, shifting patient needs, and complex healthcare challenges, it is imperative that the custodians of vision health, stay ahead of the curve.

“We must constantly evolve, embracing innovation while upholding the highest ethical and professional standards.

“The theme speaks to a fundamental truth: No single entity, no matter how skilled or committed, can achieve transformative change alone,” he said.(NAN)

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Health

FG Pledges Mentorship, Leadership Support For Boy Child

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 The Ministry of Youth Development has reaffirmed its commitment to creating platforms that promote mentorship and leadership development for the boy child.

Mr Ayodele Olawande, Minister of Youth Development, said this on Friday in Abuja during a news conference to commemorate the International Day of the Boy Child.

The day is marked annually on May 16, with the 2025 theme, “Boys’ Mental Health and Well-being.

Olawande stated that the government believed every boy, regardless of background or economic status, deserved quality mentorship to help him thrive.

“As a government, we are committed to creating platforms that promote mentorship and leadership development for the boy child.

Through initiatives like this, we can provide them with the support they need to succeed,” he said.

The minister emphasised that the goal was to empower Nigerian youth, including boys, with the skills, knowledge, and opportunities necessary for success.

“In today’s world, many fathers have little time for their children, especially their sons. This can negatively impact their development and well-being,” Olawande noted.

He stressed the importance of mentorship in filling that gap: “Without positive male role models, many boys struggle to develop the skills and values needed to become responsible, productive members of society.”

He added that mentorship offered guidance, support, and helped boys build self-confidence, make sound decisions, and form positive relationships with adults.

Olawande also acknowledged the United Nations for recognizing the significance of supporting boys through mentorship, saying the International Day of the Boy Child reflected global commitment to promote their well-being and development.(NAN)

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Health

Enugu To Upgrade Health Facilities For Maternal, Newborn Care

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 The Enugu State Government has pledged to upgrade secondary healthcare facilities across its 17 Local Government Areas to reduce maternal and newborn mortality.

The commitment was made by the State Commissioner for Health, Prof. Emmanuel Obi, during a dissemination meeting on the assessment of health facilities for Comprehensive Emergency Obstetric and Newborn Care (CEmONC), in Enugu on Friday.

The meeting, themed “Strengthening Emergency and Newborn Care Through Evidence-Based Assessment,” was organised by the Enugu State Ministry of Health.

It was held in collaboration with the Federal Ministry of Health’s Sector-Wide Approach (SWAP) programme and Jhpiego, an affiliate of Johns Hopkins University, USA.

Prof. Obi explained that the initiative aimed to ensure Enugu had efficient secondary healthcare systems capable of providing emergency maternal and newborn care.

He noted that the state had already commenced its own facility assessment, which would now be harmonised with the CEmONC assessment.

“This is an official presentation of findings from the facility assessments conducted by the Federal Ministry of Health, the SWAP Office, and our State Ministry of Health,” he said.

He added that the upgrade would enable Enugu to access federal funding under the “Hope Health” programme and SWAP, based on performance-linked disbursement indicators.

Mrs Francisca Ewoh, SWAP Desk Officer, described the programme as part of Nigeria’s Health Sector Renewal Initiative aimed at reducing maternal and neonatal mortality nationwide.

According to her, pooled partner funds will be allocated to states that meet readiness requirements, with 35,000 dollars available per qualified facility in each council area.

“Eligibility is based on providing adequate infrastructure, utilities, and staffing in secondary healthcare centres.”

Dr Chinyere Ezendu, the Enugu State focal person for the CEmONC assessment, said only two facilities in the state met the basic standards for infrastructure, amenities, water, and electricity.

She added that none of the assessed facilities had the full capacity to manage neonatal complications.

 “We are hopeful the findings will be used to develop actionable plans to reduce maternal and neonatal deaths in the state,” she said.

Dr Chioma Oduenyi, a representative of Jhpiego, reaffirmed their technical support to both the national and state-level SWAP efforts in facilitating the implementation process.(NAN)

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