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If Nigeria Finally Breaks Up…

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By Simon Kolawole

Nigeria, a country of roughly 250 ethnic groups arbitrarily coupled together by the British colonialists in 1914, is mired in an “existential crisis”, probably like never before. Apart from the north, it seems every other part wants out. The Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), under the leadership of Mazi Nnamdi Kanu, has long declared its intention to pull Nd’Igbo out of the Nigerian “zoo”.

Chief Sunday Igboho, increasingly referred to as Yoruba rights activist, is fronting the agitation for the Republic of Oduduwa.
Some Niger Delta militants recently announced the resumption of hostilities. The details are not yet out, but the region, whose oil is critical to government revenue, has its own ideas.

Is it finally time for the country to break up? I have never hidden where I stand: I believe in one Nigeria. It is not because I am such a wonderful patriot. No. But I have gone round Nigeria and interacted intensely with ordinary Nigerians. I have always come to the conclusion that we are not sworn enemies. Rather, we are victims of elite manipulation and political mismanagement. I have always concluded that we can live and prosper together “in peace and unity” if the political and economic conditions are right. But my opinion is just one out of 200 million. It is a drop in the ocean. I have now reached a stage in my life that I don’t care again. Whatever we settle for, life goes on.

But how many countries would Nigeria split into? Nobody has mandated me to work it out, yet it gives me a headache whenever I think about it. On paper, given the ongoing campaign that “the north is dragging us backward”, we should ordinarily suppose that Nigeria would break into two: the Democratic Republic of Southern Nigeria and the Republic of Northern Nigeria. I went for this preliminary assumption because the south seems united against the north. Many people also assume Nigeria to be simply north and south. Power rotation is often about north and south. There is also a prevailing international typecasting of Nigeria as “Muslim north and Christian south”.

Down south, the Democratic Republic of Southern Nigeria, DRSN for short, will have two dominant ethnic groups: Igbo and Yoruba. The DRSN minorities may accuse them of feeding fat on their oil — the same accusation the north faces perennially. As things stand, oil is still the biggest contributor to the national purse. Most of the economic calamities that befell Nigeria recently stemmed from falling oil revenue. Will DRSN leaders grant “fiscal federalism” to the oil-rich states? If so, the non-oil states may face a crippling fiscal crisis and lapse into the beggar-thy-neighbour mode, but they should all be fine “las las” (if you don’t understand Nigerian English, that’s “in the final analysis”).

Hold on. Yoruba and Igbo living together in same country? What was I thinking? Ndi Ofe Nmanu vs Omo Ajokutamamumi. It will be a Rumble in the Jungle. They only seem united in taking on the Hausa-Fulani. With Nigeria broken up and no Hausa-Fulani to fight, I don’t see Igbo and Yoruba sleeping on the same bed. They may be smiling and hugging for the cameras, but they mistrust each other with passion. Igbo will regularly accuse Yoruba of chickening out and betraying them in 1967 by not declaring Republic of Oduduwa. Yoruba will fight back and ask Igbo to leave Lagos, else they will be thrown into the Lagoon. Igbo will retort: “No way, we built Lagos! We own Lagos!”

No, I wouldn’t put Igbo and Yoruba together in DRSN. That would be too risky. It would only increase my headache. More so, the Niger Delta may become suspicious of both of them. If Yoruba and Igbo complained about being dominated by Hausa-Fulani in the defunct Federal Republic of Nigeria, so would the Ijaw, Urhobo, Edo and Ibibio, among other smaller groups, complain of being dominated by Yoruba/Igbo oligarchy in DRSN. It was not that difficult to get the southern minorities to back out of Biafra in 1967. It was as simple as telling them the Igbo were only after their resources and that they would become second-class citizens. It worked like magic. I think DRSN will be not one country.

It is, therefore, more convenient for me to see the south breaking into three: Republic of Oduduwa for Yoruba, Republic of Biafra for Igbo and Republic of Niger Delta for the oil-producing region. At the beginning of the Republic of Oduduwa, I can see some fiscal crisis. As things are, only Lagos state pays salaries and pensions and still executes projects without much sweat, apart from taking a lot of debt. The state will have to be its brothers’ and sisters’ keepers by helping other O’dua states with the wage bill. Remember that the Niger Delta oil money will be gone. Even Ondo state that is “oil-rich” still struggles to pay its bills. Lagos state will become the Niger Delta of Oduduwa Republic.

Let me explain with statistics. According to the boffins at StatiSense who analyzed data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), all the six south-west states internally generated a total revenue of N516.01 billion in 2020. Out of this, Lagos alone generated N418.99 billion, representing 81.2 percent. That is, for every N100 generated in the south-west, Lagos contributed N81. Without Lagos, the entire internally generated revenue (IGR) of the south-west was N97.02bn. If not for federation allocations, no south-west state would still be alive today. From the NBS data on IGR, most states are fiscally challenged and only a handful can survive without the oil revenue.

Does that mean Lagosians will resent other O’dua states as “parasites on our IGR”? An Ondo man once grumbled to me that Chief Obafemi Awolowo used their cocoa revenue to develop Ibadan, and that Ondo was marginalized. Will political violence, the type we see regularly in Ibadan and Lagos, disappear in O’dua Republic? Will there be cries of marginalization? Currently, Oke Ogun people say they are denied Oyo governorship; Yewa people say they can’t produce an Ogun governor; same with Awori in Lagos; and the Muslim Rights Concern (MURIC) says south-west Muslims are marginalized, particularly in Ondo and Ekiti states. But O’dua Republic will be fine “las las”.

Should we expect a Biafra where everything will be based on merit and where no part will complain of marginalization? Will there be quotas for educationally disadvantaged Biafran communities or will it be the battle of the fittest, where only the fittest of the fittest shall survive and stay alive? Will there be “federal character”, so that a Biafran president of Wawa extraction does not fill his cabinet with Wawa appointees? Will “merit” be tempered with power rotation so that Anambra does not produce Biafran presidents non-stop using their big voting population? Will the Ezza/Effium communities in Ebonyi finally stop killing each other? Never mind, Biafra will be fine “las las”.

Will the Republic of Niger Delta be the most prosperous of the post-Nigerian entities, with billions of petrodollars cementing their progress after years of “exploitation” and “oppression” by the Nigerian nation? Have their leaders done commendably well with 13 per cent derivation? If yes, imagine what they can do with 100 per cent! Will the over 50 ethnic groups become united and peaceful in the absence of the Nigerian “parasites”? Will the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), which has received over $50 billion since inception, finally go nuclear? Some say more money has not produced more development in the region — but the Republic of Niger Delta will be fine “las las”.

Meanwhile, the popular assumption down south is that the north is one. When President Muhammadu Buhari named Mr Boss Mustapha as SGF in 2017, someone shouted: “Yet another Fulani Muslim!” He didn’t know that Mustapha is neither Fulani nor Muslim. Actually, some of those tagged Fulani in Buhari’s government are not. There are close to 200 ethnic groups up north. Since religion is the strongest identity over there, a single Republic of Northern Nigeria may not be fit for purpose. We may need two northern countries to achieve a semblance of homogeneity: the Islamic Republic of Northern Nigeria (IRNN) and the Middle Belt Republic of Nigeria (MBRN).

Will the Islamic Republic of Northern Nigeria — where cholera can be described as a punishment for adultery and mannequins classified as symbols of immorality — finally find peace in the bosom of the Lord? Will IRNN end the crushing poverty and abject underdevelopment dotting its landscape? Will the millions of out-of-school children and thousands of communities drinking from dirty river and getting afflicted with water-borne diseases finally find fulfilment in a Muslims-only country? Will Shi’ites and Sunnis sheathe the sword and embrace each other? Will Boko Haram finally accept fellow Muslims as true Muslims and stop killing them? In that case, IRNN will be fine “las las”.

“Middle Belt” is the euphemism for Christian north, so I automatically assume they will need their own country. But why do I think it would be a geographical nightmare to create a country for the Christians spread across Kebbi, Kaduna, Borno, Gombe, Niger, Bauchi, Kwara, Kogi, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Taraba and Adamawa? You can’t even draw the northern Christian map on paper! But if we manage to separate the Christians from the Muslims and create a country for them, I suspect there will still be cries of marginalization by Idoma in Benue and scores of ethnic groups in Plateau, Kaduna, Niger and Nasarawa. But the cumbersome multi-ethnic MBCRN will be fine “las las”.

There are times I wish we could perform an experiment: break up Nigeria for 10 years and see how the new countries will be run. If it works, we can then kiss Nigeria goodbye. But here is my biggest headache: if Nigeria finally breaks up, will every Igbo relocate to Biafra, Yoruba to O’dua Republic and Hausa-Fulani to IRNN? Nigerians live in other countries such as Republic of Benin and Ghana, so I am afraid ex-Nigerians will still live and work in other regions of the defunct Nigeria. In that case, they will still have to learn to live together and tolerate one another. Above all, good governance will still be critical to development. And conflicts will not end — they will only take new shapes.

POLITICS

Gov Adeleke Didn’t Join APC Because Osun People Already Hated the Party – Jackson Ojo

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…Says Defectors to Ruling Party Will Regret

By Mike Odiakose, Abuja

A former chieftain of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Dr Jackson Lekan Ojo has given further insight into why governor Ademola Adeleke chose the Accord Party instead of the APC when he left the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

All the governors that dumped the PDP had detected to the ruling APC, including governor Simi Fubara of Rivers State who joined the party last week.

Speaking at the weekend, Dr Jackson Ojo said the people of Osun State prevailed on Governor Adeleke not to join the ruling APC when it became apparent that there was no point in remaining in PDP over the festering crisis in the PDP.

According to him, the people of Osun State already have deep hatred for the APC and joining the party was never an option for the governor.

Dr Ojo maintained that the performance and achievements of Governor Adeleke is his biggest selling point ahead of campaign for his reelection and the people of Osun State will troop into the Accord Party with him.

“Governor Adeleke trusted himself. He trusted his performance and achievements as governor of Osun State that is why he crossed over to a relatively unknown political party, the Accord Party. All of us have been talking to our people in Osun State to give him maximum support. I have featured of recent at least three times in Osun Broadcasting Corporation to talk to our people. I have been discussing about this, I have been contributing.

“I was one of the people that told the governor to go to Accord Party. I told my governor you don’t need to go to APC because the people of Osun State already hated the APC. I told him to go to any other political party, go to APGA, go to Accord Party because of your performance it will make everybody follow you. And he is going to win the election.

He added that the PDP is already a dead party and that is the reason gales of defection have been hitting the party.

He, however, warned that politicians who are defecting to the APC will regret it as they will be denied the automatic ticket that was used as bait to lure them into the party.

“I don’t think there is any miracle that can resurrect PDP today because they are already in the grave and it just to cover the earth on them. I don’t blame anybody crossing from the PDP because the party is already factionalized. But why are they all going to the APC, the APC is over saturated now. There are persons in APC before that have been fighting.

“You know I belonged to this party before and I know their modus operandi. This is a party that will tell you to go and queue and wait for your time because some people are already working before you came. APC is not a party you just cross to and they give you ticket the second day.

“When my brother who is a member of the House of A Representatives decamped from the PDP to the APC I told him it is good to decamp from the PDP but for going to the APC you are going to regret it. They promised them that they are going to give them automatic ticket but at the end of the day he went and picked the membership card but they called them and told them that crossing to the APC does not mean you are going to have automatic ticket. I hope it will not happen to Simi Fubara in Rivers State.”

Speaking on cold war in Rivers state between Governor Fubara and Lawmakers in the State, Dr Ojo declared that the loyalty of the Lawmakers should be to the people of Rivers State and not to the FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike.

“Former governor Nyesom Wike did not give life to the members of the House of Assembly that are loyal to him. Whatever he must have done for them the governor is there today and he could do better.

“The law is already there in place. Nobody should teach the governor how to settle with these people (Lawmakers). These people are not stones, they are not abstract. They are people you can call on phone, they are people you can meet. You don’t need any other person or intermediary. You have direct access to them and they have direct access to you.

“He should deploy more diplomatic ways and he has to settle with them.

“The members of the House of Assembly don’t need to be loyal to the governor, they just have to do their work according to the dictates of the law. Then the governor too has to do his work according to the dictates of the law. We are greeting or not greeting does not matter.

“What is loyalty? Loyalty of the governor and loyalty of members of the House of Assembly is to Rivers people. Greeting or no greeting, when it is time for the governor to send Bill to them he will send it, they will study it holistically and if it is for the benefit of the people of Rivers State they should approve it.

Reacting to the defection of Governor Fubara, Dr Ojo said: “Fortunately or unfortunately I am not one of his consultants. Possibly he must have consulted with his loyalists. I monitored his statement when he said those of you that suffered with him here and there that now we are going to the APC. He knows the best why he decamped to the APC.

“Decamping to APC does not matter anything to me because a political party is just a vehicle. Every achievement of Fubara in Rivers State today is not because he belonged to the PDP. If all his co-travelers are well contacted and they are well informed that the situation will not boomerang against them, then I say kudos to them, congratulations to them.

“But I hope whatever chased them out of PDP will not chase them out of APC.”

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POLITICS

Reps Push for Lower Air Fares, Target Airport Charges, Taxes

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The House of Representatives has called on the Federal Government to slash airport charges by 50 per cent and offer tax breaks to aviation companies to make flights cheaper during the festive season.

The call was sequel to the adoption of a motion by Rep. Obinna Aguocha (LP-Abia) at plenary on Thursday.

Aguocha had earlier moved the motion, stating that airline ticket prices have skyrocketed, affecting not just travellers but also air ambulance costs and, by extension, people’s lives.

He noted that the steep rise in airline ticket prices is currently affecting millions of Nigerian families.

The lawmaker said the Christmas season is traditionally a time for reunion, reflection and joy, saying this tradition is threatened by the weight of economic challenges that have made travel increasingly prohibitive.

“The soaring costs of domestic air travel have created a barrier preventing many from returning to their ancestral homes where shared laughter and family connections are meant to thrive and improve our self-worth.

“The myriad challenges faced by airline operators, ranging from high JetA fuel prices to excessive currency fluctuations, I implore this House to consider the broader implications of their pricing strategies.

“The insatiable pursuit of profit should not come at the expense of the cultural bonds that define us as Nigerians.

 “By temporarily reducing fares during this critical period would demonstrate a commitment to social responsibility and national solidarity.

 “Such an act would reaffirm to all citizens that the journey home is a fundamental right, accessible to every Nigerian, regardless of financial status,” he said.

The lawmaker emphasised that Nigerians are at a critical juncture, requiring urgent intervention.

He appealed to the government to show similar resolve in supporting the aviation sector as it did with road transporters last year.

According to him, the aviation sector plays a critical role in both family reunification and national connectivity.

The House called on the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to prioritise the allocation of foreign exchange at concessionary rates for airline operators.

Deputy Speaker, Rep. Benjamin Kalu, ruled that the House Committee on Aviation should meet with airline operators and the Aviation Minister, reporting back within a week for further action.

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POLITICS

Reps Make Case for Abandoned Road Project in Kogi

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The House of Representatives has urged the Federal Ministry of Works to re-mobilise Setraco Nigeria Ltd. for immediate completion of Iluke-Aiyetoro–Kiri-Abugi–Eggan Road in Kogi.

The call was sequel to the adoption of a motion by Rep. Salman Idris (APC-Kogi) at plenary on Thursday.

Moving the motion earlier, Idris said that the strategic socio-economic importance of the road to the country’s economy could not be over-emphasised.

According to Idris, the role is a major link among large-scale farming and agrarian communities.

He recalled that the Federal Executive Council had, on Wednesday, approved the sum of N25.3 billion for the construction of the road.

The lawmaker said that the contract was awarded to Setraco Nigeria Ltd., with the project consistently captured in successive Appropriations Act totalling N2.45 billion.

He said that the construction firm was mobilised to the site and had only completed approximately six kilometres of asphalt work and some earth work at Giro Hill, out of a total of 79.63 kilometres, due to inadequate annual budgetary releases.

“The abandonment of the project has caused severe ecological challenges to adjoining communities, crippling their means of livelihood, while cutting them off from accessing neighbouring towns.

“We are concerned that the deplorable state of the road continues to inflict hardship on commuters, including the loss of productive time and economic opportunities, while also limiting access to essential services such as healthcare;

“We are also concerned that the communities along the corridor have become frequent targets of terrorist attacks, with several lives lost and others injured or kidnapped.

“The current state of the road poses serious safety hazards, as the open excavations and uneven surfaces have become accident-prone areas, leading to avoidable loss of lives.

“The abandonment of this critical infrastructure has stifled grassroots development, hindered the movement of goods and services, discouraged investment and diminished the overall quality of lives of residents in the area,” he said.

The house, therefore, urged the Inspector-General of Police to ensure regular patrols along the corridor to curb the activities of criminals.

In his ruling, the Deputy Speaker, Rep. Benjamin Kalu, mandated the Committee on Appropriation to ensure adequate funding for the project in the 2026 Appropriation Act.

He also mandated the Committee on Works to ensure compliance by the Federal Ministry of Works and oversee the timely completion of the project.

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