BUSINESS
IMF Raises Nigeria’s 2023 Economic Growth Forecast

By Joseph Amah, Abuja
The International Monetary Fund, IMF, has raised its forecast for Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), growth in 2023 to 2.7 per cent.
The new forecast was contained in the IMF’s January World Economic Outlook (WEO), report released yesterday.
The new forecast represents 0.
1 percentage points above the 2.6 percent projected by the Fund October last year.The IMF also affirmed its 2.7 per cent growth forecast for Nigeria this year (2022) earlier projected in the October WEO report.
However, the IMF forecasts contradict the World Bank’s forecasts of 2.5 per cent and 2.8 per cent Gross Domestic Product, GDP, growth for Nigeria’s economy in 2022 and 2023 respectively.
The World Bank forecasts were contained in its Global Economic Prospects report released two weeks ago.Meanwhile, the IMF in its January WEO report, downgraded its GDP growth forecast for Sub Saharan Africa to 3.7 per cent and 4.0 per cent for 2022 and 2023 respectively. This represents 0.1 percentage points lower than the 3.6 per cent and 3.9 per cent forecast made in its October 2021 WEO report.
Similarly, the IMF reduced its forecast for global economic growth to 4.4 per cent in 2023, representing 0.5 percentage points lower than the 4.9 per cent projected in the October World Economic Outlook (WEO).
Attributing the downgrade to the expected impact of restrictions to curb the Omicron variant of COVID-19, the IMF in the January WEO titled, “Rising Caseloads, a Disrupted Recovery, and Higher Inflation,” stated: “The baseline incorporates anticipated effects of mobility restrictions, border closures, and health impacts from the spread of the Omicron variant.
“These vary by country depending on the susceptibility of the population, the severity of mobility restrictions, the expected impact of infections on labor supply, and the importance of contact-intensive sectors. These impediments are expected to weigh on growth in the first quarter of 2022.
“The negative impact is expected to fade starting in the second quarter, assuming that the global surge in Omicron infections abates and the virus does not mutate into new variants that require further mobility restrictions.”
Meanwhile, the IMF has called on the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and its peers in emerging and developing countries to adopt a tight monetary policy to curb rising inflation and stem outflow of foreign investment in response to the adoption of tight monetary policy in advanced countries.
The IMF said: “Less accommodative monetary policy in advanced economies will pose challenges for central banks and governments in emerging market and developing economies. Higher returns elsewhere will incentivize capital to flow overseas, putting downward pressure on emerging markets and developing economy currencies and raising inflation.
“Without commensurate tightening, this will increase the burden on foreign-currency borrowers, both public and private. But the tighter policy also brings costs at home, as domestic borrowers will find credit harder to come by. Overall, tighter policies will likely be appropriate in many emerging market and developing economies to stave off the threat of persistently higher inflation.
Moreover, emerging markets are generally more resilient, with higher reserves and better current account balances than in the previous tightening cycle—including during the 2013 taper tantrum.
“But financial vulnerabilities remain, and many countries have higher public and private debt. Debt service burdens could therefore rise significantly with higher interest rates.
“Countries with stronger fiscal positions and clearer policy frameworks will be better placed to manage tighter global financial conditions.
“More generally, emerging market borrowers should extend debt maturities where feasible, while containing a further buildup of currency mismatches. Exchange rate flexibility can also help absorb shocks.
“But in economies with market distortions or balance sheet vulnerabilities limiting market access, the impact of capital flow reversals can imperil financial stability. In those economies, foreign exchange intervention may be needed to smooth disorderly market conditions and temporary capital flow management measures may be warranted—but should not substitute for needed macroeconomic policy adjustment.”
Oil & Gas
NNPC Ltd. Disclaims Fake Financial Scheme

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) has disowned a fake AI-generated video circulating on social media featuring a cloned voice of the Group CEO, Mr Bayo Ojulari, promoting a fictitious poverty alleviation scheme.
The Chief Corporate Communications Officer, NNPC Ltd.
, Olufemi Soneye in a statement on Thursday clarified that the company had no such investment initiative.Soneye urged the public to disregard the video, originally shared by an account named Mensageiro de Cristo on Facebook.
“NNPC Ltd. has warned the perpetrators to cease their fraudulent actions or face legal consequences,” he said. (NAN)
Economy
We’ll Continue Borrowing Within Sustainable Limits- FG

The Federal Government says it will continue to borrow within manageable and sustainable limits in accordance with the Debt Management Office (DMO) debt sustainability framework.
This is contained in a statement by the Director, Information and Public Relations in the Ministry of Finance, Mr Mohammed Manga, in Abuja on Wednesday.
President Bola Tinubu recently requested the approval of the 2024 – 2026 external borrowing rolling plan from the National Assembly.
Tinubu has requested the National Assembly’s approval to secure external loans of 21.5 million dollars and 15 billion Yuan, along with a grant of 65 million Euro, as part of the federal government’s proposed 2025–2026 external borrowing plan.
Manga said that the proposed borrowing plan was an essential component of the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) in accordance with both the Fiscal Responsibility Act 2007 and the DMO Act 2003.
“The plan outlines the external borrowing framework for both the federal and sub-national governments over a three-year period, accompanied by five detailed appendices on the projects, terms and conditions, implementation period, etc.
“By adopting a structured, forward-looking approach, the plan facilitates comprehensive financial planning and avoids the inefficiencies of ad-hoc or reactive borrowing practices.
“This strategic method enhances the country’s ability to implement effective fiscal policies and mobilise development resources,” he said.
According to the statement, the borrowing plan does not equate to actual borrowing for the period.
“The actual borrowing for each year is contained in the annual budget. In 2025, the external borrowing component is 1.23 billion dollars, and it has not yet been drawn.
“This is planned for H2 2025, the plan is for both federal and several state governments across numerous geopolitical zones including Abia, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Kaduna, Lagos, Niger, Oyo, Sokoto, and Yobe States.
“Importantly, it should be noted that the borrowing rolling plan does not equate to an automatic increase in the nation’s debt burden.
“The nature of the rolling plan means that borrowings are split over the period of the projects, for example, a large proportion of projects in the 2024–2026 rolling plan have multi-year drawdowns of between five to seven years which are project-tied loans,” Manga said.
He said that these projects cut across critical sectors of the economy, including power grids and transmission lines, irrigation for improving food security, fibre optics network across the country, fighter jets for security, rail and road infrastructure.
According to him, the majority of the proposed borrowing will be sourced from the country’s development partners, like the World Bank, African Development Bank, French Development Agency, European Investment Bank, JICA, China EximBank, and the Islamic Development Bank.
Manga said that these institutions offer concessional financing with favourable terms and long repayment periods, thereby supporting Nigeria’s development objectives sustainably.
He said that the government seeks to reiterate that the debt service to revenue ratio has started decreasing from its peak of over 90 per cent in 2023.
Manga said that the government has ended the distortionary and inflationary ways and means.
According to him, there is significant revenue expectations from the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPC Ltd), technology-enabled monitoring and collection of surpluses from government owned enterprises and revenue-generating ministries, departments, and agencies and legacy outstanding dues.
“Having achieved a fair degree of macroeconomic stabilisation, the overarching goal of the federal government is to pivot the economy onto a path of rapid, sustained, and inclusive economic growth.
“Achieving this vision requires substantial investment in critical sectors such as transportation, energy, infrastructure, and agriculture.
“These investments will lay the groundwork for long-term economic diversification and encourage private sector participation.
“Our debt strategy is therefore guided not solely by the size of our obligations, but by the utility, sustainability, and economic returns of the borrowing,” he said.(NAN)
The Federal Government says it will continue to borrow within manageable and sustainable limits in accordance with the Debt Management Office (DMO) debt sustainability framework.
This is contained in a statement by the Director, Information and Public Relations in the Ministry of Finance, Mr Mohammed Manga, in Abuja on Wednesday.
President Bola Tinubu recently requested the approval of the 2024 – 2026 external borrowing rolling plan from the National Assembly.
Tinubu has requested the National Assembly’s approval to secure external loans of 21.5 million dollars and 15 billion Yuan, along with a grant of 65 million Euro, as part of the federal government’s proposed 2025–2026 external borrowing plan.
Manga said that the proposed borrowing plan was an essential component of the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) in accordance with both the Fiscal Responsibility Act 2007 and the DMO Act 2003.
“The plan outlines the external borrowing framework for both the federal and sub-national governments over a three-year period, accompanied by five detailed appendices on the projects, terms and conditions, implementation period, etc.
“By adopting a structured, forward-looking approach, the plan facilitates comprehensive financial planning and avoids the inefficiencies of ad-hoc or reactive borrowing practices.
“This strategic method enhances the country’s ability to implement effective fiscal policies and mobilise development resources,” he said.
According to the statement, the borrowing plan does not equate to actual borrowing for the period.
“The actual borrowing for each year is contained in the annual budget. In 2025, the external borrowing component is 1.23 billion dollars, and it has not yet been drawn.
“This is planned for H2 2025, the plan is for both federal and several state governments across numerous geopolitical zones including Abia, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Kaduna, Lagos, Niger, Oyo, Sokoto, and Yobe States.
“Importantly, it should be noted that the borrowing rolling plan does not equate to an automatic increase in the nation’s debt burden.
“The nature of the rolling plan means that borrowings are split over the period of the projects, for example, a large proportion of projects in the 2024–2026 rolling plan have multi-year drawdowns of between five to seven years which are project-tied loans,” Manga said.
He said that these projects cut across critical sectors of the economy, including power grids and transmission lines, irrigation for improving food security, fibre optics network across the country, fighter jets for security, rail and road infrastructure.
According to him, the majority of the proposed borrowing will be sourced from the country’s development partners, like the World Bank, African Development Bank, French Development Agency, European Investment Bank, JICA, China EximBank, and the Islamic Development Bank.
Manga said that these institutions offer concessional financing with favourable terms and long repayment periods, thereby supporting Nigeria’s development objectives sustainably.
He said that the government seeks to reiterate that the debt service to revenue ratio has started decreasing from its peak of over 90 per cent in 2023.
Manga said that the government has ended the distortionary and inflationary ways and means.
According to him, there is significant revenue expectations from the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPC Ltd), technology-enabled monitoring and collection of surpluses from government owned enterprises and revenue-generating ministries, departments, and agencies and legacy outstanding dues.
“Having achieved a fair degree of macroeconomic stabilisation, the overarching goal of the federal government is to pivot the economy onto a path of rapid, sustained, and inclusive economic growth.
“Achieving this vision requires substantial investment in critical sectors such as transportation, energy, infrastructure, and agriculture.
“These investments will lay the groundwork for long-term economic diversification and encourage private sector participation.
“Our debt strategy is therefore guided not solely by the size of our obligations, but by the utility, sustainability, and economic returns of the borrowing,” he said.(NAN)
Economy
Organise Informal Sector, Tax Prosperity Not Poverty, Adedeji Tasks Officials

The Chairman, Joint Tax Board (JTB), Dr Zacch Adedeji, has urged officials of the board to organise traders and artisans into a formal body before capturing them in the tax net.
Adedeji said that this was in line with the agenda of President Bola Tinubu not to tax poverty but prosperity.
The chairman stated this at the 157th Joint Tax Board meeting held in Ibadan, on Monday.
The theme of the meeting “Taxation of the Informal Sector: Potentials and Challenges”.
Speaking on the theme of the event, Adedeji stressed the need to evolve a system that would make the informal sector formal before it could be taxed.
Adedeji, who also doubles as the Chairman, Federal Inland Revenue Service, (FIRS), said “What I would not expect from the JTB meeting is to define a system that would tax the informal sector.
“The only thing is to formalize the informal sector, not to design a system on how to collect tax from market men and women.
“As revenue administrator, our goal is to organise the informal sector so that it can fit into existing tax law.”
Citing a report of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in the first quarter of 2023, the chairman said that the nation’s unemployment index was attributable to recognised informal work.
Adedeji stated that workers in that sector accounted for 92.6 per cent of the employed population in the country as at Q1 2023.
“JTB IS transiting to the Joint Revenue Board with expanded scope and functions.
“We are hopeful that by the time we hold the next meeting of the Board, the Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Bill would have been signed into Law by the President.
“The meetings of the board provide the platform for members to engage and brainstorm on contemporary and emerging issues on tax, and taxation,” he said.
In his address, Gov. Seyi Makinde of Oyo State, said the theme of the meeting was apt and timely, stressing that it coincides with the agenda of the state to improve on its internally generated revenue.
According to him, the meeting should find the best way forward in addressing the issue of the informal sector and balance the identified challenges.
“Nigeria is rich in natural resources, but it is a poor country because economic prosperity does not base on natural resources,”
Makinde also said that knowledge, skill and intensive production were required for economic prosperity, not just the availability of natural resources.
He stressed the need to move from expecting Federal Allocations to generating income internally.
“We are actively ensuring that people are productive and moving the revenue base forward,” Makinde said.
The governor said that tax drive should be done by simplifying tax processes, incentives for compliance like access to empowerment schemes and loans.
He urged JTB to deepen partnership and innovation in using data on tax to track and administer it.
Earlier, the Executive Chairman, Oyo State Board of Internal Revenue, Mr Olufemi Awakan, said the meeting was to address tax-related matters, evolve a workable, effective and
efficient tax system across the states and at the Federal level.
He urged participants to find amicable solutions to challenges of tax jurisdiction, among others.
Tax administrators from all the 36 states of the federation, who are members of JTB, were in attendance. (NAN)