Economy
Inflation, Food Security and Implications for Agric Revolution
By Okeoghene Akubuike
“My pension is only N90, 000 monthly; my children, two undergraduates, and one graduate all rely on this money and my wife’s little income from her petty trading.
“With the rising prices of food, we can barely afford to eat twice a day, not to mention meeting other needs.
This is the story of Mr David Omotayo, a pensioner whose children still rely on to meet their needs amidst other family demands in the face of increasing food prices and inflation.
The situation not different with Ms Blessing Ike, who said inflation has negatively affected her business and eroded her purchasing power.
“There is no profit from this business anymore, we are barely managing.
The high prices of foodstuffs coupled with the increasing price of cooking gas which I use for my business, leave me with no profit,” she told the News Agency of Nigeria.A civil servant, Mrs Amina Audu, said the high cost of living caused by inflation has reduced her living standard.
She says that 90 per cent of the family income is used on expenses ranging from food to other consumables such as cooking gas and electricity bills.
“It is impossible to save money in recent times”, Audu told NAN.
This is the reality in many Nigerian homes as inflation rate hits a 17- year high, the highest since September 2005 amid soaring food prices, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
NBS statistics shows that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate increased to 21.09 per cent on a year-on-year basis in October 2022, indicating a 5.09 per cent increase compared to 15.99 per cent recorded in October 2021.
According to the Statistician-General of the Federation, Prince Semiu Adeniran, factors responsible for the increase in annual inflation rate include disruption in the supply of food products, increased import cost due to currency depreciation, among others.
Consequently, the average Nigerian cannot afford to purchase some of these staple food items, which the Multidimensional Poverty Index Survey (MPI) report launched on Nov. 17 confirms.
The MPI report revealed that 63 per cent of Nigerians are multi-dimensionally poor, accounting for 133 million Nigerians.
According to The World Bank’s Food Security report, domestic food price inflation remains high around the world. Information between June and September 2022 shows high inflation in almost all low-income and middle-income countries.
The bank, therefore, recommended Social Protection Responses to the Global Food Crisis, advising policymakers in developing countries to focus on the poor through social investment.
“Strengthening national social protection systems can help populations manage shocks and stressors and build long-term resilience to food insecurity.
“Social protection, food, and health systems can work together across sectors to improve food security and nutrition outcomes of vulnerable groups,” the report said.
Similarly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says high food insecurity is compounding the Covid-19 pandemic’s scarring effects on the vulnerable in Nigeria.
After its routine official visit to Nigeria in November 2022, the IMF said it anticipates that food prices would continue to increase in Nigeria in 2023 due to high fertiliser prices and recent flooding in many parts of the nation.
“Similarly, further volatility in the parallel market exchange rate and continued dependence on central bank financing of the budget deficit could exacerbate price pressures,” IMF said.
The Fund’s position is contained in its Staff Concluding Statement of the 2022 Article IV Mission in Nigeria.
The IMF recommended strengthening the performance of the agricultural sector as key to job creation, food security, and social cohesion.
However, the Federal Government has debunked insinuations that Nigeria will experience food shortage due to recent floods.
At the 5th Edition of President Muhammadu Buhari Administration Scorecard 2015-2017 series in Abuja, the Minister of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Dr Mohammad Abubakar, assured Nigerians that there would be no food shortage in the country.
Abubakar said in spite of the rising inflation in the country, which he said was a global crisis and the flood disaster notwithstanding, the country would not experience food shortage.
“Absolutely, we have enough to eat in this country. There is no shortage of food.
“Yes there is inflation and an increase in prices, but we have enough food to feed everyone. It is better to have inflation than to have no food. We have enough to eat and we will continue to have enough to eat,” Abubakar said.
Mohammed said one of the measures the government had put in place to ensure food security was dry season farming which would be done by also harnessing some of the flood waters.
However, Sam Amadi, an analyst and Director, Abuja School of Social and Political Thoughts, said: “if we are food secured then we want to see it in its affordability.
“Experts are predicting a difficult time with respect to food in Nigeria. Human security includes food affordability.
Economists have suggested concrete steps to address the rising inflation and food prices in Nigeria.
They also opine that the increasing inflation rate in Nigeria has impacted negatively on the living standard of Nigerians.
A lecturer at the Department of Economics, Kaduna State University, Prof. Aminu Usman, said the rising inflation rate meant devaluation of individual income, which amounted to drop purchasing power.
An economist, Dr Ayo Anthony, said Nigeria’s exchange rate management needed to be revisited; and the cost of production must be looked into before inflation can come down.
“The cost of production must be looked into because inflation in Nigeria is more of cost-push inflation. We have energy costs with diesel and petrol, which are on the high side now”, he said.
Another economist, Mr Tope Fasua, advised the federal government to put more efforts into the agriculture sector for increased food production.
“Nigeria is a largely agricultural country, yet 62 years after independence we can’t do better than grow rice. We are also not growing the crops properly and we are not even growing enough crops, diversify across the board, not even the ones we need.”
“So, one place to start is to do more in agriculture and bring some science into agriculture and recognise our luck, capability, and capacity to turn things around,” she said.
Okeoghene Akubuike is of the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN)
Economy
NGX: BUA Cement, Tier-1 Banks Shed N394bn from Market Cap
Selloffs in BUA Cement and Tier-one banking stocks on Tuesday dragged the Nigerian Exchange Ltd. (NGX) market capitalisation down by N394 billion, a 0.66 per cent decline.
Specifically, the market capitalisation, which opened at N59.812 trillion, closed at N59.418 trillion.
Similarly, the All-Share Index dropped by 0.
66 per cent, shedding 651 points to close at 98,058. 07, compared to 98,708. 90 on Monday.This dip also reduced the Year-to-Date (YTD) return to 31.14 per cent.
Market breadth was negative, with 32 losers declining and 26 gainers on the Exchange.
On the losers’ table, Cadbury Nigeria led by 9.89 per cent to close at N16.40 per share, while Northern Nigeria Flour Mill(NNFM) led the losers’ table by 10 per cent to close at N37.
40 per share.However, analysis of the market activities showed trade turnover settled higher relative to the previous session, with the value of transactions up by 96.08 per cent.
A total of 399.32 million shares valued at N8.93 billion were exchanged in 9,547 deals, compared to 353.18 million shares valued at N4.55 billion transacted in 9,417 deals posted previously.
Meanwhile, UBA led the activity chart in volume and value with 90.41million shares worth N2.61 billion.(NAN)
Economy
NGX: Analysts Predict Sustained Positive Trends as Investors Gain N836bn
In the just concluded week, equity investors gained N836 billion or 1.41 per cent, week-on-week.
The Nigerian Exchange Ltd.(NGX) All-Share Index and Market Capitalisation appreciated by 1.41 per cent to close the week at 99,448.91 and N60.261 trillion respectively.
This is against 98,070.
28 and N59.425 trillion respectively posted in the previous week.Similarly, all other indices finished higher, with the exception of NGX Consumer Goods and NGX Lotus II which depreciated by 0.
84, 1.19 per cent respectively, while the NGX ASeM index closed flat.Fifty-eight equities appreciated in price during the week, higher than 33 equities in the previous week.
Eighteen equities depreciated in price lower than 43 in the previous week, while 76 equities remained unchanged, same as 76 recorded in the previous week.
On the gainers’ table, Eunisell Interlinked Plc, led 47 advanced equities by 20.69 per cent to close at N3.50 per share.
Also, Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc, led 17 declined equities on the losers’ table by 10.13 per cent to close at N31.50 per share.
A total turnover of 2.142 billion shares worth N85.946 billion in 41,217 deals was traded this week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to 1.447 billion shares valued at N73.889 billion that exchanged hands last week in 39,546 deals.
The Financial Services Industry, measured by volume led the activity chart with 1.176 billion shares valued at N23.739 billion traded in 19,570 deals; thus contributing 54.91 and 27.62 per cent to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively.
The Consumer Goods Industry followed with 366.923 million shares worth N4.672 billion in 4,004 deals.
Third place was the Oil and Gas Industry, with a turnover of 228.439 million shares worth N52.635 billion in 7,547 deals.
Trading in the top three equities, namely: United Bank for Africa Plc, Champion Breweries Plc and Japaul Gold and Ventures Plc measured by volume accounted for 828.822 million shares worth N12.319 billion in 5,080 deals.
This contributed 38.70 and 14.33 per cent to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively.
Reacting, analysts at Cowry Financial Market Research stated that the recent positive quarterly corporate earnings reports, further buoyed market sentiment.
The analysts noted that this was particular in the banking, industrial goods, and consumer goods sectors, delivering strong performances from key players.
They stated that the market sentiment also drove the benchmark index closer to the 100,000 points threshold.
“Notably, we think the current rally is likely to persist, though cautious profit-taking activities may create intermittent dips,” they said.
Looking ahead, the analysts predicted that the stock market was poised for further gains.
According to them, this is as investors look forward to the upcoming macroeconomic data releases and corporate earnings reports, which are anticipated to influence short-term trading dynamics.(NAN)
Economy
Global Growth Remains Unchanged at 3.2%, as Inflation Recedes- IMF
The International Monetary Fund (IMF),, says global growth is projected to remain unchanged at 3.2 per cent in 2024 and 2025, as Inflation recedes.
This is according to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update Report for October 2024: “Policy Pivot, Rising Threats,” released on Tuesday during the IMF/ World Bank Meetings in Washington D.
C.The report said though the projection was in line with the July and April 2024 WEO, there had been notable revisions beneath the surface since the April WEO.
According to the report, some low-income and developing economies have seen sizable downside growth revisions, often tied to disruptions to production and shipping of commodities, especially oil, conflicts, civil unrest, and extreme weather events.
“These have been compensated for by upgrades to the forecast for emerging Asia, where surging demand for semiconductors and electronics, driven by significant investments in artificial intelligence has bolstered growth.”
It said in advanced economies, growth in the United States was strong, at 2.8 per cent in 2024 but will revert toward its potential in 2025.
The report said for advanced European economies, a modest growth rebound was expected in 2025, with output approaching potential.
For emerging markets and developing economies, it said the growth outlook was very stable around 4.2 per cent in 2024 and 2025, with continued robust performance from emerging Asia.
“Five years from now, global growth should reach 3.1 per cent, a mediocre performance compared with the prepandemic average.”
The report showed that there was global disinflation even though service price inflation persists in some countries.
“After peaking at 9.4 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2022, we now project headline inflation will fall to 3.5 per cent by the end of next year.
“ This is slightly below the average during the two decades before the pandemic.
“In most countries, inflation is now hovering close to central bank targets, paving the way for monetary easing across major central banks.”
The report said the return of inflation near central bank targets paved H the way for a policy triple pivot which would provide the much-needed macroeconomic breathing room, at a time when risks and challenges remain elevated.
“The first pivot on monetary policy is underway already. Since June, major central banks in advanced economies have started to cut policy rates, moving toward a neutral stance.
“This will support activity at a time when many advanced economies’ labor markets are showing signs of cooling, with rising unemployment rates.
‘Lower interest rates in major economies will ease the pressure on emerging market economies, with their currencies strengthening against the U. U. S dollar and financial conditions improving.
“This will help reduce imported inflation, allowing these countries to pursue their own disinflation path more easily.”
The report said the second pivot was on fiscal policy and would require countries to stabilise debt dynamics and rebuild much-needed fiscal buffers.
“The more credible and disciplined the fiscal adjustment, the more monetary policy can play a supporting role by easing policy rates while keeping inflation in check.
“The pace of adjustment should be tailored to country-specific circumstances.”
It said the third pivot and the hardest was towards growth-enhancing reforms.
The report said structural reforms were necessary to lift medium-term growth prospects, but support for the most vulnerable should be maintained
It said for reforms to be successful and socially accepted, there was a need to build trust between government and citizens.
“ Building trust between government and citizens, a two-way process throughout the policy design and the inclusion of proper compensation to offset potential harms, are essential features.
The report said that multilateral cooperation was needed more than ever to accelerate the green transition and to support debt-restructuring efforts. (NAN)