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Nigeria’s 2023 Elections and the Challenges Ahead

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By Idayat Hassan

With dates for the 2023 Nigeria general elections now set by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) – the presidential and National Assembly poll is set for February 25 and governorship and other subnational elections are scheduled for March 11 – the countdown is well underway for what will be the seventh consecutive elections since the return to democracy in 1999.

This represents 23 years of unbroken democracy; the longest period in the country’s history.

The 2023 elections will be conducted under a new electoral framework, the Electoral Act 2022. The Act allows INEC to review results made under duress or financial inducement, extends the time for campaigns from 90 to 150 days, and provides for the use of technology to determine the mode of voting and transmission of results.

Pundits believe these measures can help manage situations where inaccurate results are returned, expand the opportunity for politicians to visit the nooks and crannies of the country if they so desire and cure the chaotic, vulnerable manipulation and unnecessarily opaque process of aggregating results.

However, instead of reducing the role of money in politics, the Act has increased the campaign finance limit from N1 billion to N5 billion for presidential candidates. The ceiling for all other elected positions have also been increased fivefold, but without any efforts to improve the scrutiny of compliance limits, they are still likely to be exceeded.

Presidential aspirants

The Electoral Act requires that parties submit the names of their candidates 180 days before the elections, thereby allowing for the legal resolution of fractious primaries ahead of the voting day. In signing the Electoral Act, President Buhari also requested that the section that precludes political office holders from participating in party primaries and voting during congresses be deleted, as it breaches participation rights. However, the National Assembly refused to make this amendment. This meant that several of Buhari’s ministers were unable to contest for elective office unless they first resigned their positions.

In late May, the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) delegates chose a long-time presidential aspirant, Atiku Abubakar as their candidate, as they did in 2019. He will face off against Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). On June 8, Tinubu emerged from an initial field of 28 candidates who paid N100 million each to purchase the party nomination forms. Just like at the PDP convention, when the decisive movement was delivered by the governor of Sokoto’s decision to stand down, handing his delegate votes to Atiku, the APC presidential primaries saw frontline South-West candidates such as governor of Ekiti State, Kayode Fayemi and former Ogun governor, Ibikunle Amosun, stepping down, and handing Tinubu their bloc votes.

The Old and the New?

Tinubu, 70, and Atiku, 75, are now the frontline candidates in the forthcoming elections and both have significant war chests at their disposal. They previously worked together in 2007 when Tinubu’s party, the Action Congress, fielded Atiku, then the outgoing vice president, as their presidential candidate, and in 2015 when both were frontline promoters of the APC. However, with 60 per cent of Nigeria’s population being youths and with many among that generation already disgruntled with the ruling class, following events such as the #EndSars protest against police brutality, the prospect of widening an intergenerational divide is clear.

Potential third forces that could increase the likelihood of Nigeria’s first ever presidential run-off election are Peter Obi, 60, who withdrew from the PDP primary contest and will now run as the Labour Party flagbearer, and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, 65. While Obi has cultivated a significant online following among younger voters, Kwankwaso is equally popular among youths in his native Kano State. The attempt to create a formidable third force seems to have been midwifed as the Peoples Redemption Party, New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), National Rescue Movement (NRM) and the Nigeria Labour Congress have all agreed, for now, to an alliance to run under the banner of the Labour Party. A joint Obi-Kwankwaso ticket could shake up the presidential race.

Challenges Ahead

The 2023 elections will be some of the most challenging to conduct in Nigeria as the country battles nodes of complex insecurity. The Boko Haram conflict that defined the 2015 election is yet to be quelled, and with bandits operating across the North-West, violent secessionist agitation spiraling in the South-East and farmer-herder clashes ongoing across the country, the 2023 election is set to take place amidst nationwide insecurity. The June 5 attack on a church in relatively stable Ondo State, in South-West Nigeria, which saw more than 50 people killed, was a stark reminder of the insecurity challenges that will make the safety of election materials and personnel a major challenge for INEC.

INEC chairman, Professor Mahmud Yakubu, is the first election body head to get a second term in the country’s history. But whilst Yakubu has done well to build on the successes of his predecessor, Attahiru Jega by adopting innovation and consulting regularly with key stakeholders, Nigeria’s zero-sum political game with desperate and disparate actors, out to win at all costs, still poses a sizeable threat to electoral integrity, despite technological advances. The forthcoming off-cycle governorship elections in Ekiti (June 18) and Osun (July 16) states will offer an early indication of what to expect in the 2023 general elections. But the financial implications of an extended election season are already putting strain on an economy that has hobbled in and out of recession in the last seven years. The naira is now trading at over N600 to one $1 on the black market, as thousands of dollars are dispersed by political aspirants at all levels to shore up support.

Voter turnout is another area of concern. Just 34.75 per cent of eligible Nigerians voted in 2019 and a similarly low, or lower, turnout in 2023 would further undermine the credibility of the poll. But given the prevailing insecurity across the country, the choice available when it comes to the presidential race, difficulties in registering for permanent voter cards in insecure areas in Northern and South-East Nigeria and the likely rampant misinformation and disinformation that will emerge in the lead up to voting day, designed to draw distinct divisions and undermine the credibility of key election stakeholders, means that fewer Nigerians may vote next year than in 2019.

Nigeria may be experiencing its longest run of uninterrupted democracy but its quality remains very much in need of improvement.

Idayat Hassan is director of the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD).

POLITICS

2025 budget: LP Chieftain Lauds Tinubu for Diving Priority to Security, Others

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Dr Ayo Olorunfemi, National Deputy Chairman of the Labour Party (LP) ,has commended  President Bola Tinubu for giving  priority to security and other key sectors in the 2025 Appropriation Bill .

Olorunfemi gave the commendation while speaking with newsmeon Thursday in Lagos.

NAN reports that the President had on Wednesday  presented  the N47.

9 trillion 2025 Appropriation Bill , christened “Budget of Restoration, Securing Peace and Rebuilding Prosperity” , to a joint session of the National Assembly .

The President listed highlights of the 2025 budget allocations to include: defense and security: N4.91 trillion; infrastructure: N4.06 trillion; Health: N2.

48 trillion and Education: N3.52 trillion.

Reacting , Olorunfemi  described security as an enabler of development.

He called on the President to ensure proper implementation ,saying budgets had always been well-crafted but usually lacked monitoring and implementation.

“There is nothing that can happen if there is no security. This is good if the budget is properly utilised for the purpose.

“Our problem is not about policies and budgets, it is about monitoring and implementation.

“There is nothing wrong in bringing a budget proposal forward in terms of expectation, what we want to do, how we want to do it, and how much we want to spend.

“Now, the most important thing is the implementation,, budgets in Nigeria have always been properly crafted,” the LP boss said.

Olorunfemi called on the President to build strong institutions to prevent sabotaging of his policies.

“If this government wants to do anything, it must wake up to the responsibility of monitoring policies and ensure  severe penalty for anyone who attempts to sabotage such policies.

“We need institutions that no one will be able to interfere with. We must allow these institutions to work, that is what we expect.

“Once we have strong institutions, most of our problems are solved,” he said.

He  also called on the President to take steps to address  the problems experienced by Nigerians in the banking sector.

Olorunfemi  decried the inability of many Nigerians to get cash at  bank’s Automated Teller Machines and the high charges paid  to get cash from Point of Sales (POS) operators.

The LP boss also urged the President to devise ways of  ending multiple taxations and high fuel price, describing them as major causes  of  hardship .

Recalled that the President said that the budget was a demonstration of government’s commitment to stabilising the economy, improving lives and repositioning the country for greater performance.

He also said the budget sought to consolidate the key policies instituted to restructure the economy, boost human capital development, increase the volume of trade and investments and bolster oil and gas production. (NAN)

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POLITICS

Atiku hails Ndimi’s Oriental Energy on commissioning of first FPSO 

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By Mike Odiakose, Abuja

The former Vice President of Nigeria and PDP Presidential flag bearer in the 2023 general elections, Atiku Abubakar has congratulated the Chairman of the Nigerian Independent producer, Oriental Energy Resources (OER), Muhammadu Indimi, on the successful completion and commissioning of the Okwok Field’s Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel/platform in Dubai.

In a statement in Abuja by his Media Office in Abuja on Wednesday, the Former Vice President described the commissioning of the FPSO as one of the most gladdening news coming out from the upstream subsector of Nigeria’s oil industry in recent times.

“The vessel’s deployment at the Okwok field is expected to significantly increase Nigeria’s crude oil output, contributing to the government’s revenue growth and economic development objectives,” he said.

According to Atiku, “This is the first FPSO entirely funded by an indigenous Nigerian company and this landmark achievement being championed by OER showcases the rising capability of Nigerian firms in conceptualising and successfully executing complex projects in the nation’s upstream oil industry.

The successful building and commissioning of the FPSO marks a significant step toward enabling an indigenous oil and gas company to independently develop a marginal oil field. 

This development marks an important milestone for Nigeria and its indigenous energy sector, he said.

“No doubt, this latest investment would boost economic growth, generate job opportunities for Nigerians, and ensure steady growth and development of not only the oil sector but the nation’s economy in general.”

He described Indimi as a man who so much believes in the capabilities that exist in the Nigerian oil and gas industry.

“From onset of his foray into the nation’s oil sector, his vision of standing out as a player of reckon in the nation’s upstream oil business has been top-notch,” he said.

As he said, Oriental Energy’s significant investment in the oil sector has set a new standard in local investment and operational excellence in the nation’s oil business, benefiting both the company and its partners.

The 40,000 barrels per day capacity facility constructed by the Singaporean firm HBA Future Energy will commence sailing to Nigerian waters beginning February 2025 for hook-up on the Okwok Oil Field. Production is expected to commence on the oil field in the first half of next year.

Okwok Oil Field, discovered by ExxonMobil in 1967, is located in Oil Mining Lease(OML) 67, in 31 metres water depth in shallow marine, southeast offshore Nigeria with estimated recoverable reserves of 45 million barrels. OER has an ongoing multi-well drilling campaign on the field that commenced in October 2023.

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POLITICS

2025 Budget: Consequences Will be Devastating, says CUPP 

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By Mike Odiakose, Abuja

The Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP) on Wednesday said the consequences of the 2025 budget proposal presented to the National Assembly by President Bola Tinubu will be “far-reaching and devastating.”

According to the CUPP, the budget proposal is a stark reminder of the country’s persistent fiscal woes.

President Tinubu Tuesday presented a national budget of N47.

96 trillion for 2025 to the joint session of lawmakers in the National Assembly.

He said the budget which was put together based on economic realities and would trigger the prosperity of Nigerians in 2025 if implemented to the latter, adding that it would restore and consolidate key polices of government.

Tinubu said Nigerians have shown resilience in 2024 economic challenges, hence, he believed that the 2025 budget would leverage that so that the fabric of the nation can be built further in 2025.

However, in a statement signed by High Chief Peter Ameh, the Publicity Secretary of CUPP, said a cursory examination of the line items reveals a familiar pattern which includes, debt servicing continues to take a substantial chunk of the budget, while allocations for critical sectors such as healthcare, education, and infrastructure remain woefully inadequate.

“This phenomenon is not new; rather, it is a recurring tale that has plagued Nigeria’s budgeting process for years,” the statement added.

“The implications of this trend are far-reaching and devastating. As debt servicing continues to drain the country’s resources, poverty levels have skyrocketed, and economic growth has stagnated.

“The human cost of this mismanagement is evident in the lack of access to basic necessities such as healthcare, education, and clean water.

“The failure to address these pressing needs has led to widespread disillusionment and frustration among Nigerians.

“The President’s budget proposal for 2025 presents an opportunity for a paradigm shift. By prioritizing investments in critical sectors, the government can create jobs, stimulate economic growth, and reduce poverty. However, this requires a fundamental transformation of the budgeting process, one that prioritizes transparency, accountability, and stakeholder engagement.

“To break the cycle of annual rituals, the government must adopt a more proactive and responsive approach to budgeting. This includes involving civil society, the private sector, and citizens in the budgeting process to ensure that allocations reflect the country’s pressing needs.

“Performance-based budgeting, where funds are allocated based on performance indicators and project outcomes, can also help to ensure that resources are utilized efficiently.

“Furthermore, the government must address the issue of debt servicing, which continues to drain the country’s resources. Debt restructuring, revenue enhancement, and budget realignment are potential strategies that can help to alleviate this burden.

“The 2025 budget proposal presents a critical juncture for Nigeria. Will the government continue down the path of debt servicing and neglect, or will it seize the opportunity to transform the budgeting process and prioritize the needs of its citizens?

“The choice is clear, and the consequences of inaction will be dire. It is time for a new approach, one that prioritizes transparency, accountability, and the well-being of all Nigerians.”

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