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IMF Predicts 0.5% GDP Revenue Loss for Nigeria

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Torough David, Abuja

The Federal Government may lose as much as 0.5 percent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product in revenue following its decision not to raise the Value Added Tax rate, the International Monetary Fund has disclosed.

In its latest Article IV Consultation Report on Nigeria, the IMF stated that although the recent tax reforms approved by the National Assembly and President Bola Tinubu represent a major step forward in modernising the VAT and Company Income Tax regimes, the choice to maintain the current VAT rate would lead to an immediate revenue shortfall.

“The decision not to raise the VAT rate now is reasonable, given high poverty and food insecurity, and with the cash transfer system to support the most vulnerable households not yet fully rolled out.

However, this will reduce consolidated government revenue by up to ½ per cent of GDP in the authorities’ estimates,” the report noted.

While the Federal Government is expected to be largely insulated from the fallout—thanks to expected gains from improved CIT compliance—the blow will be felt most by state and local governments.

According to the Fund, unless alternative financing options are found, subnational governments may be forced to either scale back spending or ramp up their own revenue efforts.

The IMF, however, acknowledged the government’s justification for delaying a VAT hike, particularly at a time of worsening poverty and food insecurity.

With only 5.5 million of the targeted 15 million households reached under the federal cash transfer programme, the Fund noted that raising VAT at this stage could further strain vulnerable households.

Nonetheless, it cautioned that the cost of delaying reform would fall on already stretched public finances, especially at the subnational level.

“Assuming no alternative financing sources, they [states and LGAs] would have to raise additional revenue or reduce spending, which is assumed in the baseline,” the report said.

Despite this challenge, the IMF welcomed the tax reform agenda being driven by the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, describing it as critical to reversing Nigeria’s poor revenue-to-GDP ratio, one of the lowest globally.

The reforms aim to boost compliance and enforcement, and the Fund believes they hold “significant medium-term revenue potential” once fully implemented.

Measures include modernising the VAT and CIT frameworks, tightening exemptions, and introducing digital tools to monitor compliance. Total revenue and grants reached 14.4 per cent of GDP in 2024, up from 9.8 per cent in 2023, buoyed by currency depreciation and improved administration.

However, public debt also rose, hitting 52.9 percent of GDP last year, with interest payments consuming 41.1 percent of Federal Government revenue. The IMF advised the government to maintain a neutral fiscal stance in 2025, stressing that revenue shortfalls should not lead to excessive borrowing.

It also urged the authorities to clearly set out a medium-term revenue plan, including timelines for further tax policy changes, to restore investor confidence and ensure policy credibility.

The report stated, “Pre-committing to an implementation timeline for further policy measures in an updated medium-term framework would support fiscal sustainability and provide guidance on available fiscal space for development spending and support for the most vulnerable households.”

Nigeria’s decision not to raise VAT comes at a time of heightened global and domestic uncertainty. Lower oil prices, rising financing costs, and mounting social pressures have narrowed the government’s fiscal space.

The IMF observed that while reforms since 2023—including fuel subsidy removal and the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market—have improved macroeconomic stability, their benefits have yet to trickle down to most Nigerians.

With inflation still elevated at 22.9 per cent as of May 2025, and poverty levels worsening, the government appears to be prioritising stability over revenue acceleration, for now.

However, the IMF warned that the long-term cost of inaction could be higher if reforms stall or if subnational governments struggle to adjust.

In the meantime, the IMF continues to support Nigeria’s reform efforts, including through capacity development and the deployment of a resident advisor to assist with revenue mobilisation strategies.

The Nigeria Economic Summit Group warned that the Federal Government could face revenue shortfalls if it does not increase the value-added tax rate as part of the ongoing tax reform process.

The Chief Executive Officer of NESG, Dr. Tayo Aduloju, made this statement during an interactive media session in Abuja. He emphasised that while reforms in the VAT system are essential, maintaining the current VAT rate without an increase could lead to a significant loss of revenue for the government.

Speaking on the issue, Aduloju said, “Without those rate hikes, it means that the government might lose some revenue.” Aduloju explained that the current tax reform process must strike a balance between simplifying the tax system and increasing the VAT rate to maintain revenue stability.

According to him, simply reducing the number of taxes without adjusting the VAT rate could weaken the government’s revenue base.

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BUSINESS

CBN Revamps Agric Guarantee Scheme, Targets Smallholder Farmers

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The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has launched a major overhaul of the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund (ACGSF), unveiling a new strategic direction aimed at expanding credit access to smallholder farmers and accelerating national food security efforts.

Speaking in Abuja at the inauguration of the reconstituted ACGSF Board, CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, described the revamp as “a new dawn” for agricultural financing.

He said the initiative reflects the Federal Government’s renewed commitment to reposition agriculture as a driver of inclusive growth, rural development, and economic diversification.

Cardoso noted that the ACGSF-established in 1977-remains one of the country’s most impactful development finance tools.

Yet, despite employing nearly two-thirds of Nigeria’s labour force and contributing over 20 per cent to GDP, the agric sector continues to receive less than five per cent of total bank credit. This structural mismatch, he said, has stunted the potential of millions of farmers for decades.

The CBN governor stressed that the agricultural landscape has evolved far beyond subsistence farming, now governed by integrated value chains, technology, climate risks and a growing agritech ecosystem. In line with these realities, he said the Scheme must transform into a dynamic, data-driven institution capable of supporting modern agriculture.

He highlighted the 2019 amendment that expanded the Scheme’s share capital from N3 billion to N50 billion and broadened its operational scope. One of the notable enhancements, he added, is the inclusion of farmers’ representatives on the new Board-an “inclusive and strategic” move to ensure policies are grounded in real sector needs.

Cardoso emphasised that the central objective of the revamp is to unlock affordable credit for smallholders who account for 90 per cent of the nation’s agricultural output but remain underserved due to limited collateral, poor credit history and weak access to financial services.

He urged the Board, chaired by Dr. Olusegun Oshin, to design products tailored to women, youth and other underserved groups while leveraging fintechs, microfinance banks and cooperatives to deliver innovative lending models. He also called for the deployment of technology-from satellite imagery to digital dashboards-to track loan utilisation and ensure measurable impact.

Dr. Oshin welcomed the reforms and advocated further expansion of the Fund to meet the scale of investment required for meaningful sectoral transformation.

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Okonjo-Iweala, Others Urge Youths to Drive Reforms, Strengthen Civic Action

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National leaders have challenged youths to lead Nigeria’s renewal, warning that meaningful change now depends on young citizens organizing, demanding accountability and driving sustained civic action.

They made the call on Wednesday night at the 15th anniversary of Enough is Enough Nigeria (EiE), held in Lagos, with the theme “Footprints and Frontlines”.

EiE is a civil society organisation advocating for accountable governance and citizen participation.

In a virtual keynote address, Director-General of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, urged young Nigerians to lead change with courage and conviction.

She recalled her 2010 message to youths, saying it remained relevant.

“Do not wait and watch. Do not ask for permission. Get up, organise and make a difference,” she said.

Okonjo-Iweala noted that with 70 per cent of Nigeria’s population under 30, young people hold huge influence in shaping the country’s direction.

She urged them to use their numbers constructively while confronting persistent challenges such as unemployment and poor access to capital.

She praised EiE’s “Office of the Citizen” initiative for empowering communities to demand transparency and improved public services, adding that civic pressure was crucial for reform.

“Real change depends on organised, determined and courageous young citizens,” she said.

In his remarks, Emir of Kano and former Central Bank Governor, Mohammad Sanusi, said rebuilding Nigeria required honesty and collective responsibility.

“As citizens, we must remember this nation belongs to us. We have done enough damage. Enough is enough, we need to stop,”he said.

Sanusi said Nigeria had repeatedly missed development opportunities because public office was often treated as personal property.

He called for a shared national vision that transcends ethnicity, religion and political interest.

Bishop Matthew Kukah of the Catholic Diocese of Sokoto commended EiE for its resilience in advancing social justice and called on Nigerians, especially the youth, to persist in the struggle for a fair society.

“The journey to justice and fairness has no finish line.

Let us remain relentless in building a Nigeria that is just, equitable and bigger than all of us,” Kukah added.

Former Minister of Communication Technology, Mrs Omobola Johnson, emphasised collaborative effort in nation-building, saying development required hard work, sacrifice and citizens’ willingness to contribute their “time, talents and treasures.”

Executive Director of EiE, Yemi Adamolekun, said Nigeria continued to underperform because citizens were not demanding enough from leaders.

She urged Nigerians not to detach their personal progress from the fate of the country.

She said, “Whatever industry we work in, if Nigeria becomes a failed state, we will all suffer. Silence is not an option. Evil is amplified when good people stay silent.”

After highlighting EiE’s milestones over the past 15 years, Adamolekun announced 36-year-old Mrs Ufuoma Nnamdi-Udeh as the organisation’s new Executive Director.

The anniversary also featured the relaunch of Footprints: Past, Present, Future (2nd Edition), compiled by EiE and forwarded by the late diplomat Dr Christopher Kolade, in whose honour the event was partly dedicated.

Attendees also watched the premiere of One Voice, Many Echoes, a short film featuring archival footage from the 1993 election annulment protests, the 2010 Enough is Enough marches and the 2020 EndSARS demonstrations.

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EFCC Seeks Stronger Alliance with CSOs, Media in Anti-corruption Fight

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The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has called for deeper collaboration with Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) and the media in the fight against corruption, describing both groups as “critical drivers of national change.

Acting Zonal Director of the EFCC, Kaduna Zonal Directorate, Bawa Usman Kaltungo, made the call on Thursday in Kaduna at a one-day sensitisation workshop for journalists and CSOs.

Kaltungo, who spoke on behalf of the EFCC Chairman, Ola Olukoyede, said the workshop was organised to strengthen cooperation between the commission and key stakeholders whose roles remain vital to public accountability and national integrity.

According to him, CSOs serve as the conscience of society and a bridge between citizens and government, while journalists use the “powerful pen” to shape public opinion and expose wrongdoing.

“Together, you are indispensable allies in safeguarding our economy and our collective future,” he said.

Kaltungo stated that the EFCC had benefited significantly from intelligence and information shared by CSOs and the media, which had helped expose suspicious financial transactions, abuses of office and systemic fraud.

“Our fight against corruption is not a solo mission. It requires synergy, trust and shared intelligence,” he said, urging the participants to use the workshop as a platform for open dialogue and strengthened collaboration.

Kaltungo commended the EFCC Public Affairs Department for organising the programme and formally declared the workshop open.

Earlier, Head of Public Affairs, EFCC Kaduna Zonal Directorate, Zainab Ahmed, outlined the objectives of the workshop, describing CSOs and journalists as the Commission’s “most valued stakeholders.”

She said the workshop was designed to deepen understanding of the legal and practical processes involved in prosecuting financial crimes, emerging threats in the digital space, and the preventive responsibilities of non-state actors.

“Our goal is to ensure all participants leave better informed, better connected, and better equipped to play their respective roles,” she said.

A presentation by the Head of Legal and Prosecution, Nasiru Salele, took participants through key issues in financial crime prosecution, including levels of involvement, evidence assessment and investigation procedures.

Salele identified challenges affecting prosecution, such as uncooperative judges and frequent transfers of Federal High Court judges.

He also highlighted advancements in EFCC investigations, including the use of AI tools and strengthened international cooperation.

Another session, led by Ayukor Ovirororo of the Procurement Fraud Section, focused on cryptocurrency-related crime. He explained how criminals store, move and launder crypto assets through centralized and decentralized exchanges.

Ovirororo warned that while cryptocurrency offers economic opportunities, it also poses national financial risks, citing recent high-profile cases as examples of unregulated digital operations escalating into major threats.

The final session, presented by Tony Orilade, Head of Public Interface at the EFCC Headquarters, centred on the preventive roles of CSOs and the media.

He emphasised the impact of investigative journalism, policy advocacy, public awareness campaigns and monitoring of government activities.

Orilade added that CSOs also provide safe platforms for whistle-blowers and play a significant role in shaping stronger anti-corruption frameworks.

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