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Floating the Naira Before it Sinks

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By Uddin Ifeanyi

One of the more telling pieces of conversation that I have been privy to around the economy’s foreign exchange woes is from a friend regaling me with dialogue he had late last year with the “Mallam” from whom he buys dollars on the parallel market.

Having lost much hope in the naira as a place to salt away his wealth, he begun actively buying the greenback a few years back.
Sometime in November 2021, he asked his agent to source US$2,000 for him.

The agent’s reply, “But, Oga, the thing too cost” was as instructive, then, as was my friend’s response: “Buy am, jo. You been tink say this people sabi wetin dem dey do?” My friend was so sure that the naira will exchange at US$1:N600 by year end 2022.

It was US$1:N470 when this transaction was consummated.

In the debate between those who are calling for the naira’s free float and those who defend the current managed float arrangement, it is this aspect of the exchange dynamics that is to the front and centre. So long as the naira has more than one price, it will continue to support arbitrage activity ― putting up costs without delivering corresponding gains to domestic economic actors.

Besides, in combination with rampant domestic inflation, the gap between the naira’s official and parallel market prices will continue to make it difficult to store value in the local currency. Then, there is the pressure on the balance on the gross external reserve, as the central bank struggles to keep the rate in the official market policy-bound.

But by far the biggest test posed by pegging the naira’s exchange rate is that it messes up with the relationship between domestic prices as a tool for allocating resources.

Ordinarily a change in relative prices signals changes in consumers’ preferences for goods and services, all other variables remaining the same. In the same extent, these price indicators drive the direction of investment, with pricier goods and services (implying juicier returns on investment) getting first dibs on new money.

A managed float, such as we currently run, distorts this process ― reflecting the policymaker’s understanding of the balance between relative prices, rather than where the market would have it. It is small wonder, therefore, that capital importation into the country has continued to fall every year since 2019, with the foreign direct investment component the worst hit.

This does not mean, though, that defenders of our current managed exchange rate arrangement are just crying “Wolf” when they say that a float might see the naira’s exchange rate all over the floor ― with severe implications for the economy’s cost profile. In part, that is one consequence of the long term absence of “macroeconomic reasonability” in our husbandry of the domestic economy.

Much of the success of macroeconomic policy making is about the forward guidance provided by policymakers and the expectations that these then anchor in the markets. In the Nigerian incidence, it is not just that both these ingredients are absent. It is that the resulting stew is full of perverse incentives. The zero-bound interest rate policy for instance is an invitation to dollarise domestic savings that has not, in spite of its best intentions, meaningfully boosted output growth.

These connectedness between different parts of the economy mean that if the naira’s exchange rate will become market-determined at some point, it can only be part of a clearly thought through and coordinated set of reforms to the economy. Of course, these reforms will, at the monetary policy space, include understanding the level at which interest rates help keep inflation down while supporting full employment. It will then require that this be marked up by the rate of core inflation.

Beyond this, however, root-and-branch changes will have to be made to the public expenditure management process. Improvements in governments’ revenue generation (without further crimping businesses ― widening the tax base and walking back on easy to collect but regressive taxes like VAT) will top the list, here. Followed by improvements in the efficacy of governments spending. It will help that leakages and graft are plugged and reduced, if not eliminated. But it will matter more that the return on government spending rises.

These should see deficits drop to levels both more manageable and consistent with the economy’s needs. The portmanteau of reforms that will support a floating naira would also require that the policymakers’ bulimia for borrowing is aligned with the economy’s capacity to absorb such inflows.

Much of the changes required, therefore, to enable the naira float freely are the same ones required to fix the economy. They are changes that have to be initiated from the fiscal side, particularly reforms to the economy’s structure: how it is resourced; the nature and efficiency of its conversion processes; what it produces; and the markets it sells into. It matters, then, that the current government’s borrowing, especially when you include the large ways and means component from the central bank has been implicated in unstable and rapidly rising prices.

We must agree a process to rein this in, including putting in place a process for determining the federal government’s medium-term capital expenditure need, and capping the annual public expenditure borrowing requirement at a proportion of this. On its own, an increase in government spending is not necessarily all negative. Combined, though, with a central bank that is subordinate to the finance ministry and a large budget deficit it begins to present adverse effects on domestic prices.

What does this mean for the ethos around central banking independence? The pandemic may have invited central banks across the world to cross red lines in the financing of their domestic economies, but it is a fair bet that the restraints in the CBN Act on the monetary authority’s ability to monetise the fiscal deficit still make sense as we seek to transition to a private sector-led, market-based economy.

Uddin Ifeanyi, journalist manqué and retired civil servant, can be reached @IfeanyiUddin.

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Tackling Benue’s Post-harvest Losses in Citrus

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Citrus farmers in Benue state are facing severe post-harvest losses.

These losses are primarily caused by inadequate storage facilities, poor transportation networks, and limited access to processing plants.

These challenges have undermined their efforts to maximise production and profitability.

Benue, often called the ‘Food Basket of the Nation’, is a major producer of oranges, lemons, and grapefruits.

However, in spite of its agricultural prominence, farmers lament that much of their hard work goes to waste.

A large portion of their harvest rots before it reaches the market.

For example, Mrs Esther Tor, a citrus farmer from Gboko, revealed that over 60 per cent of her annual produce is lost.

“We put in so much effort to cultivate and harvest these fruits, but without proper storage or buyers, they just rot in heaps,” she said.

Similarly, Mr James Afia from Ushongo highlighted transportation challenges as a major contributor to their woes.

“Many of us rely on rural roads that become nearly blocked during the rainy season. Trucks frequently break down, leaving the fruits stranded and spoiled,” he explained.

Moreover, local farmers attribute their struggles to insufficient investment in agro-processing industries and limited access to credit facilities.

They also stress the absence of cold storage systems and modern preservation technologies that could extend the shelf life of their produce.

Noting the urgency of the situation, Mr Vincent Atim, another citrus farmer, stressed the need for immediate government intervention.

“We urge both the federal and state governments to subsidise storage facilities, provide modern drying and juicing equipment, and rehabilitate rural roads,” he said.

Atim further warned, “If urgent action is not taken, Benue’s citrus farmers may be forced out of business, threatening livelihoods and the state’s position as a key player in Nigeria’s agricultural sector”.

He added that the sight of rotten oranges across farms is a painful reminder of wasted potential and resources.

Post-Harvest Losses (PHLs) have impacted food security and economic stability across Sub-Saharan Africa, including Nigeria.

In 2011, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) estimated that up to 37 per cent of food produced in the region is lost between production and consumption.

Specifically, cereal losses were estimated at 20.5 per cent, with post-harvest handling and storage losses around 8 per cent.

In Nigeria, post-harvest losses are a major concern, particularly for staple crops like maize and grain legumes.

Comparatively, while Nigeria faces substantial post-harvest challenges, the issue is pervasive across many African nations.

Also, the African Postharvest Losses Information System (APHLIS) reports that post-harvest grain losses in Sub-Saharan Africa range from 10 to 20 per cent, depending on the country and crop.

Many stakeholders assert that addressing these losses requires improving storage, transportation, and handling practices.

These measures, they argue, are vital to reducing post-harvest losses and enhancing food security across the continent.

According to the FAO, post-harvest losses of citrus fruits in Benue were as high as 40 per cent in 2019.

The organisation attributed these losses to several factors, including inadequate storage facilities, poor handling practices, and insufficient market access.

The FAO further noted that farmers face significant challenges in accessing markets, which often leads to a build-up of unsold produce and increased losses.

In response to these challenges, agriculture expert Mr Edwin Asue advised the Benue State Government to introduce initiatives to address post-harvest losses.

He proposed establishing citrus processing plants in the state, ideally one in each of the three Senatorial districts.

“These processing plants would provide a ready market for farmers and significantly reduce losses,” he noted.

Additionally, Asue suggested that the government train and support farmers on best practices for handling and storage.

He recommended partnerships with local organisations to facilitate these trainings.

Furthermore, he emphasised the need to provide improved packaging materials to citrus farmers, which can reduce damage and spoilage during transportation and storage.

Asue also advocated for the use of technology, such as mobile apps and digital platforms, to connect farmers with buyers and provide real-time market information.

“Online marketplaces should be established to reduce the role of intermediaries and increase farmers’ earnings,” he said.

In addition to these recommendations, another agriculture expert, Mr Moses Angwe, emphasised the need for more concerted efforts to tackle post-harvest losses.

To address these gaps, Angwe urged the government to provide citrus farmers with access to finance, enabling them to invest in improved storage facilities, handling practices, and packaging materials.

He also called for the establishment of more markets and improved access to existing ones, which would help farmers sell their produce more easily and reduce losses.

Furthermore, Angwe stressed the importance of value addition activities.

“Encouraging farmers to engage in activities such as juicing, jam-making, and drying can increase their earnings and minimise losses.

“Reducing post-harvest losses requires a multi-faceted approach involving technology, training, and infrastructure development.

“By working together, the government, farmers, and other stakeholders can unlock the full potential of the citrus sector and improve farmers’ livelihoods,” he said.

Meanwhile, Mr James Toryila, a supporter of Gov. Hyacinth Alia, stated that the government is addressing the issue by attracting private sector investment into the agricultural value chain.

“The government is engaging stakeholders to build processing plants and create market linkages that will help farmers reduce post-harvest losses,” Toryila stated. (NANFeatures)

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Inside Cross River’s Primary Healthcare Centres: The Struggle for Proper Vaccination

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By Laide Akinboade, Abuja

Cross River State, nestled in Nigeria’s South-South region, known as the “People’s Paradise,” faces a major health challenge: ensuring proper vaccination coverage for its population, particularly its children. Despite the availability of essential vaccines like the Pentavalent vaccine, Inactivated Polio Vaccine (IPV), Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG), and measles vaccine, stockouts, delays, and infrastructure issues continue to disrupt immunisation efforts in the state.

Dr. Vivien Mesembe Otu, the Director-General of the Cross River State Primary Health Care Development Agency (CRSPHCDA), elaborated on the extent of these issues.
“The persistent challenges we face hinder our ability to meet the immunisation needs of our communities,” Dr. Otu remarked during a recent media engagement. Cross River State’s immunisation coverage is dismal, with statistics revealing that only 21% of children aged 12 to 23 months in the state are fully vaccinated. This presents a glaring gap in the efforts to protect children from preventable diseases and underscores the urgent need for intervention in the state’s primary healthcare system.One of the critical barriers to immunisation is the shortage of vaccines. Despite receiving government and international aid, primary healthcare centres in the state are often left with insufficient vaccine stock to meet the growing needs of the population. This has created a situation where children miss out on life-saving vaccines, putting them at risk for diseases like polio, measles, and pneumonia.Dr. Otu explained the challenges faced in accessing immunisation services, especially in rural areas. “Many families in rural areas are unaware of the importance of vaccination, while others cannot access health services due to distance, poor roads, and inadequate facilities,” she said.In response to these challenges, UNICEF has stepped in to help ease the strain on healthcare services in Cross River. UNICEF has provided solar-powered refrigerators and lighting systems to several primary healthcare centres, enabling better storage conditions for vaccines, especially in areas with unreliable electricity. Martin Dohlsten, UNICEF’s Health Manager, emphasized the significance of these initiatives, noting that they are part of the agency’s efforts to meet the targets of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.2, which aims to reduce under-five mortality rates from 1.8% to 16.5% annually by 2030.Additionally, UNICEF has played a pivotal role in improving the state’s oxygen supply by establishing a Pressure Swing Adsorption (PSA) oxygen plant in Calabar. Before this, respiratory issues, particularly in newborns, were a leading cause of mortality in the region. The introduction of this oxygen plant has significantly improved the availability of medical oxygen, helping to address a critical gap in treating respiratory conditions and preventing unnecessary deaths among newborns.Despite these efforts, a tour of several primary healthcare centres—Ikot Offiong Ambai PHC, Atimbo East PHC in Akpabuyo Local Government Area, and Ekpo Abasi Primary Healthcare Centre in Calabar South Ward 2—revealed numerous obstacles that hinder effective healthcare delivery. These centres, along with the Sick Baby Unit at the University of Calabar Teaching Hospital, face critical challenges such as dilapidated infrastructure, flooding, and limited resources, all of which impede their ability to provide quality services.In rural areas, flooding during the rainy season renders many healthcare centres inaccessible, further exacerbating the health crisis. Dilapidated infrastructure and poor drainage systems discourage both healthcare workers and patients from utilizing the centres, leading to overcrowding at other facilities. Dr. Otu lamented the situation, saying, “If you come here during the rainy season, this place is always waterlogged due to poor drainage. Health workers and patients have to wear rubber boots just to access the facility. It’s unsafe and unsanitary.”The demand for healthcare services at these centres is also overwhelming. The Ikot Offiong Ambai PHC, for example, serves ten communities, making it difficult for one facility to meet the healthcare needs of such a large population. Atim Okon Jimmy, a nurse at the facility, explained, “On Thursdays, we can have up to fifty mothers bringing their babies for immunisation. And it’s not just immunisations—they come for treatments, tests, and other healthcare services as well.”The facility’s capacity to meet these needs is strained, and there is an urgent need for more healthcare centres to be built to serve the growing population. Dr. Otu assured that the state government is working to address this issue by allocating land for the construction of new primary healthcare centres as part of an ongoing initiative to revitalise healthcare services across the state.Maternal and child health is another major concern in Cross River. The state grapples with high maternal and infant mortality rates, particularly in rural areas. UNICEF’s recent report highlighted that over 30% of pregnant women in Nigeria do not attend primary health centres for antenatal care, despite the recommendation of 48 antenatal visits before delivery. Nigeria’s maternal mortality rate stands at 576 per 100,000 live births, one of the highest in the world. Furthermore, neonatal mortality is also alarmingly high, with many babies dying within the first week of birth due to complications such as asphyxia, infections, and prematurity.These figures paint a grim picture of healthcare access in rural areas, where 38% of women make at least four antenatal care visits, compared to 75% in urban areas. The slow uptake of antenatal care, especially among young, poor, rural women, is a major reason why babies don’t survive beyond the first day. With only 36% of women in rural areas giving birth in health facilities compared to 74% in urban areas, the disparity in maternal care is striking.To address this, Dr. Otu revealed that the state is collaborating with traditional birth attendants (TBAs) to bridge the gap in maternal healthcare. By training TBAs to recognize danger signs during deliveries and referring women to health facilities in a timely manner, the state aims to reduce maternal and child mortality rates.Another critical challenge in Cross River’s healthcare system is the shortage of trained healthcare workers. Limited funding has hindered efforts to provide adequate training for staff, which is necessary to ensure the delivery of high-quality care. “We need more resources to train our staff and expand our facilities to accommodate more patients,” said the Medical Director of one of the primary healthcare centres.Furthermore, essential medical equipment such as delivery couches, patient beds, and oxygen concentrators are in short supply. This scarcity exacerbates the already strained healthcare system, making it difficult to meet the needs of the population. The state government and healthcare partners such as UNICEF are working to address these issues, but much more is needed to ensure that the healthcare system is adequately equipped to serve the people.Dr. Otu expressed optimism for the future, calling on organisations like UNICEF to provide continued support to improve maternal and child health outcomes in Cross River State. She stressed the need for expanding solar energy solutions for cold storage facilities, which would reduce reliance on costly and environmentally harmful diesel generators. “With sustained support and strategic interventions from organisations like UNICEF, we can significantly improve maternal and child health outcomes in Cross River State,” she said.Despite the daunting challenges, the state remains committed to improving healthcare delivery for its residents. However, the journey ahead requires more investment, innovation, and partnerships. The work of healthcare organisations, the state government, and international partners will be crucial in addressing the healthcare challenges in Cross River, and there is hope that with continued collaboration, progress will be made.As Cross River works to navigate these hurdles, the commitment to improving healthcare delivery is evident. But a lot more work remains to be done to ensure that every child in the “People’s Paradise” state has access to the life-saving vaccines they need and that mothers receive the quality healthcare they deserve.

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Appraising post-insurgency Efforts to Revive Education in Borno

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For many years Borno has been among the regressive states in Western education, a situation  worsened by over a decade of the Boko Haram insurgency.

While it lasted, education, particularly at the basic level, was the worst hit as many some schools were closed for many months or even years and over 1,000 schools were destroyed.

This is not a surprise as the insurgents’ main ideology was to attack western education.

They had waged a relentless war against western education, kidnapping pupils and students, mainly girls and bullying teachers away from school.

According to a UNICEF report in 2017, more than half of all schools remain closed in Borno, the epicentre of the crisis where many teachers lost their lives and about 19,000 teachers were displaced.

In 2019, an educationist and university lecturer, Prof. Babagana Zulum, assumed office as governor. He made it clear that quality education is one of his leading areas of priority after security.

According to Zulum, if his administration could address the education problem, he would be a fulfilled man for laying the foundation for meaningful and rapid development.

Stakeholders in the sector believe that Zulum has cashed in on the relative peace now enjoyed in Borno to build on the foundation already laid by his predecessor, Kashim Shettima.

He focused on the education sector through the reconstruction of destroyed schools and the building of new ones of international standard.

The state government also embarked on mass enrolment of pupils and recruitment of qualified teachers for the new schools, as well as to replace the unqualified ones.

A committee was set up to screen public primary school teachers to ascertain their level of qualifications as a useful starting point for the needed transformation from the basic level.

The state Commissioner of Education, Mr Lawan Wakilbe conducted a Basic Literacy and Numeracy Competency Assessment for teachers in all the 27 Local Education Authorities (LEAs).

Tellingly, only 5,439 of the 17,229 teachers in primary schools who participated in the test were competent to teach.

The commissioner pointed out that 7,975 teachers were qualified but required further training if they must teach, adding that 3,815 others were unqualified and could not be trained.

“Furthermore, a review of their academic qualification shows that 1,627 teachers constituting 9.4 per cent are degree holders, 8,153 teachers constituting 47.3 per cent are NCE holders, and 2,066 constituting 12 per cent are diploma holders,” Wakilbe said.

He revealed that 713 teachers constituting 4.1 per cent, were Grade II holders, and 2,281 constituting 13.2 per cent, were SSCE/GCE or equivalent qualification.

He further said that 2,389 constituting 13.9 per cent had no formal qualification at all.

The committee presented 24 recommendations to the government to address the situation which are now being implemented.

Media reports show that over 5000 teachers have been recruited, while competent teachers discovered after the screening by the committee were properly placed based on their qualifications to further ginger them.

Training and retraining are also being provided for teachers who require  them.

These exercises were  carried out in collaboration with institutions such as the University of Maiduguri and Borno State University.

While inaugurating one of the newly constructed schools a few weeks ago in Maiduguri in, Zulum said the state had enrolled 70 per cent of its 2.2 million out-of-school children within the past five years

He also said that within that period, his administration constructed 104 schools, restored 2,931 classrooms and distributed millions of instructional materials to both basic and secondary schools across the state.

According to the governor, measures like the school feeding programme and distribution of free bicycles to ease mobility challenges for rural students also attracted more enrolment.

“We have established five Vocational Enterprise Institutes, two Second-Chance Women/Girls Skills Entrepreneurship Schools and reactivated nine existing vocational training centres.

“Our aim is to train approximately 5,000 artisans annually, empowering them with skills for self-reliance and addressing unemployment challenges.”

He commended development partners for playing a vital role in transforming the education sector in the state.

World Bank Country Director, Dr Ndiame Diop, who assured sustained support to Borno, said the bank has so far supported the construction of 41 schools and rehabilitation of 392 others across the state.

“This school is a symbol of resilience, a beacon of hope, and a testament to rebuilding better in the wake of adversity.

“We are impressed by the state’s efforts and remain committed to supporting Governor Zulum’s vision,” Diop stated.

Another aspect of the transformation of the sector is the housing scheme for teachers in rural areas.

Teachers’ retirement age has also been extended by five years from 35 to 40 and from 60 to 65 by age whichever comes first.

The government also upgraded the position and remuneration of Education Secretaries of Local Education Authorities (LEAs) to that of Permanent Secretaries in ministries.

The position of Education Secretary was advertised and many professors and educationists from universities applied.

Shortlisted candidates made up of some professors sat for examinations and interviews to be employed as LEAs education secretaries to work in rural areas.

All LEAs are now provided with monitoring vehicles and a monthly stipend of N500,000 for each LEA for fueling to ensure effective monitoring.

Zulum said the LEAs are expected to produce positive results, and whoever fails to deliver will be shown the way out.

Private primary and secondary schools across the state considered critical stakeholders in providing quality education were also made to renew their registration and were graded accordingly.

At the tertiary level, the state has been supporting both state and federal government-owned institutions in the state to meet some requirements for accreditation of more courses.

It also recently spent over N9 billion as scholarships to 32,000 students studying at home and abroad, said Mallam Bala Isa, the Executive Secretary of the state scholarship board.

Bala said the state is now focused on sponsoring students studying science, technology, engineering, ICT, and mathematics.

Sangaya education is also being enhanced by creating the Borno Arabic and Sangaya Education Board and directing the integration of vocational skills in the sangaya centres and Islamiyya schools across the state.

The chairman of the board, Khalifa-Ali Abdulfathi, said the board has registered 2,775 Sangaya centres and validated 451 Islamiya schools across the state.

Abdulfathi said the centres have 12,309 teachers and 224,068 students out of which 128,789 are day students and the remaining 97,279 are boarding students.

He said that 2,613 of the Sangaya proprietors are Borno indigenes and have permanent land while 162 of the proprietors are migrants.

“It’s encouraging that most proprietors are willing to accept numeracy/literacy lessons in their centres.

“In addition, many centres are eager to get skills acquisition and entrepreneurship programmes.

“Of the registered 2,755 Sangaya centres, 1,683 qualify for full intervention, whereas 1,092 did not.

“However, those who did not qualify and have indicated a willingness to accept integration should be considered for support,” Abdulfathi said.

Many stakeholders have lauded the commitment and zeal exhibited by the government and people of Borno to get things right in many sectors, particularly education, which remains critical to development.

They hope that the measures being taken will yield positive results in line with the state’s 25-year development framework and 10-year strategic transformation plan geared towards a self-reliant Borno.

Malala Yousafzai, the Pakistani female education activist and 2014 Nobel Peace Prize winner said that as part of recovery from the insurgency the commitment to reviving education is on the right track.

One of Malala’s popular statements is that “With guns you can kill terrorists, with education you can kill terrorism.” (NANFeatures)

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