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IMF: Currency Depreciation Increasing Public Debt in Sub-Saharan Africa

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the depreciation of sub-Saharan African currencies against the US dollar pushes up public debt stock.

This is contained in the global lender’s recent blog post titled ‘African Currencies Are Under Pressure Amid Higher-for-Longer US Interest Rates’.

Countries in sub-Saharan Africa include Nigeria, Angola, Kenya, South Africa, Ghana, Chad, Ethiopia and others.

IMF said weaker currencies make the fight to curb inflation harder given sub-Saharan Africa’s dependence on imports.

The Bretton Woods institution said countries in the region have recorded an average of 8 percent depreciation of their currencies since January 2022.

IMF, however, said the extent varies by country, adding that Ghana’s cedi and Sierra Leone’s leone depreciated by more than 45 percent.

“Most sub-Saharan African currencies have weakened against the US dollar, fanning inflationary pressures across the continent as import prices surge,” the article reads.

“This, together with a growth slowdown, leaves policymakers with difficult choices as they balance keeping inflation in check with a still-fragile recovery.”

On the implications, the IMF said when currencies weaken against the US dollar, local prices rise, as much of what people buy, including essential items like food, are imported.

The financial institution said more than two-thirds of imports are priced in US dollars for most countries in the region.

“Weaker currencies also push up public debt. About 40 percent of public debt is external in sub-Saharan Africa and over 60 percent of that debt is in US dollars for most countries,” the article further reads.

“Since the beginning of the pandemic, exchange rate depreciations have contributed to the region’s rise in public debt by about 10 percentage points of GDP on average by end-2022, holding all else equal.

“Growth and inflation (which reduces the real value of existing debts) helped to contain the public debt increase to about 6 percent of GDP during the same period.”

The IMF said countries where exchange rates are not pegged (fixed) to a currency have little choice but to let the exchange rate adjust and tighten monetary policy to fight inflation.

The global lender said countries with pegged exchange rates will need to adjust monetary policy in line with the country of the peg.

“In both country groups, fiscal consolidation can help to rein in external imbalances and limit the increase in debt related to currency depreciation. Structural reforms can help to boost growth,” the IMF said.

Economy

NGX: BUA Cement, Tier-1 Banks Shed N394bn from Market Cap

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Selloffs in BUA Cement and Tier-one banking stocks on Tuesday dragged the Nigerian Exchange Ltd. (NGX) market capitalisation down by N394 billion, a 0.66 per cent decline.

Specifically, the market capitalisation, which opened at N59.812 trillion, closed at N59.418 trillion.

Similarly, the All-Share Index dropped by 0.

66 per cent, shedding 651 points to close at 98,058.
07, compared to 98,708.
90 on Monday.

This dip also reduced the Year-to-Date (YTD) return to 31.14 per cent.

Market breadth was negative, with 32 losers declining and 26 gainers on the Exchange.

On the losers’ table, Cadbury Nigeria led by 9.89 per cent to close at N16.40 per share, while Northern Nigeria Flour Mill(NNFM) led the losers’ table by 10 per cent to close at N37.

40 per share.

However, analysis of the market activities showed trade turnover settled higher relative to the previous session, with the value of transactions up by 96.08 per cent.

A total of 399.32 million shares valued at N8.93 billion were exchanged in 9,547 deals, compared to 353.18 million shares valued at N4.55 billion transacted in 9,417 deals posted previously.

Meanwhile, UBA led the activity chart in volume and value with 90.41million shares worth N2.61 billion.(NAN)

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NGX: Analysts Predict Sustained Positive Trends as Investors Gain N836bn

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In the just concluded week, equity investors gained N836 billion or 1.41 per cent, week-on-week.

The Nigerian Exchange Ltd.(NGX) All-Share Index and Market Capitalisation appreciated by 1.41 per cent to close the week at 99,448.91 and N60.261 trillion respectively.

This is against 98,070.

28 and N59.425 trillion respectively posted in the previous week.

Similarly, all other indices finished higher, with the exception of NGX Consumer Goods and NGX Lotus II which depreciated by 0.

84, 1.19 per cent respectively, while the NGX ASeM index closed flat.

Fifty-eight equities appreciated in price during the week, higher than 33 equities in the previous week.

Eighteen equities depreciated in price lower than 43 in the previous week, while 76 equities remained unchanged, same as 76 recorded in the previous week.

On the gainers’ table, Eunisell Interlinked Plc, led 47 advanced equities by 20.69 per cent to close at N3.50 per share.

Also, Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc, led 17 declined equities on the losers’ table by 10.13 per cent to close at N31.50 per share.

A total turnover of 2.142 billion shares worth N85.946 billion in 41,217 deals was traded this week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to 1.447 billion shares valued at N73.889 billion that exchanged hands last week in 39,546 deals.

The Financial Services Industry, measured by volume led the activity chart with 1.176 billion shares valued at N23.739 billion traded in 19,570 deals; thus contributing 54.91 and 27.62 per cent to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively.

The Consumer Goods Industry followed with 366.923 million shares worth N4.672 billion in 4,004 deals.

Third place was the Oil and Gas Industry, with a turnover of 228.439 million shares worth N52.635 billion in 7,547 deals.

Trading in the top three equities, namely: United Bank for Africa Plc, Champion Breweries Plc and Japaul Gold and Ventures Plc measured by volume accounted for 828.822 million shares worth N12.319 billion in 5,080 deals.

This contributed 38.70 and 14.33 per cent to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively.

Reacting, analysts at Cowry Financial Market Research stated that the recent positive quarterly corporate earnings reports, further buoyed market sentiment.

The analysts noted that this was particular in the banking, industrial goods, and consumer goods sectors, delivering strong performances from key players.

They stated that the market sentiment also drove the benchmark index closer to the 100,000 points threshold.

“Notably, we think the current rally is likely to persist, though cautious profit-taking activities may create intermittent dips,” they said.

Looking ahead, the analysts predicted that the stock market was poised for further gains.

According to them, this is as investors look forward to the upcoming macroeconomic data releases and corporate earnings reports, which are anticipated to influence short-term trading dynamics.(NAN)

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Economy

Global Growth Remains Unchanged at 3.2%, as Inflation Recedes- IMF

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF),, says global growth is projected to remain unchanged at 3.2 per cent in 2024 and 2025, as Inflation recedes.

This is according to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update Report for October 2024: “Policy Pivot, Rising Threats,” released on Tuesday during the IMF/ World Bank Meetings in Washington D.

C.

The report said though the projection was in line with the July and April 2024 WEO, there had been notable revisions beneath the surface since the April WEO.

According to the report, some low-income and developing economies have seen sizable downside growth revisions, often tied to disruptions to production and shipping of commodities, especially oil, conflicts, civil unrest, and extreme weather events.

“These have been compensated for by upgrades to the forecast for emerging Asia, where surging demand for semiconductors and electronics, driven by significant investments in artificial intelligence has bolstered growth.”

It said in advanced economies, growth in the United States was strong, at 2.8 per cent in 2024 but will revert toward its potential in 2025.

The report said for advanced European economies, a modest growth rebound was expected in 2025, with output approaching potential.

For emerging markets and developing economies, it said the growth outlook was very stable around 4.2 per cent in 2024 and 2025, with continued robust performance from emerging Asia.

“Five years from now, global growth should reach 3.1 per cent, a mediocre performance compared with the prepandemic average.”

The report showed that there was global disinflation even though service price inflation persists in some countries.

“After peaking at 9.4 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2022, we now project headline inflation will fall to 3.5 per cent by the end of next year.

“ This is slightly below the average during the two decades before the pandemic.

“In most countries, inflation is now hovering close to central bank targets, paving the way for monetary easing across major central banks.”

The report said the return of inflation near central bank targets paved H the way for a policy triple pivot which would provide the much-needed macroeconomic breathing room, at a time when risks and challenges remain elevated.

“The first pivot on monetary policy is underway already. Since June, major central banks in advanced economies have started to cut policy rates, moving toward a neutral stance.

“This will support activity at a time when many advanced economies’ labor markets are showing signs of cooling, with rising unemployment rates.

‘Lower interest rates in major economies will ease the pressure on emerging market economies, with their currencies strengthening against the U. U. S dollar and financial conditions improving.

“This will help reduce imported inflation, allowing these countries to pursue their own disinflation path more easily.”

The report said the second pivot was on fiscal policy and would require countries to stabilise debt dynamics and rebuild much-needed fiscal buffers.

“The more credible and disciplined the fiscal adjustment, the more monetary policy can play a supporting role by easing policy rates while keeping inflation in check.

“The pace of adjustment should be tailored to country-specific circumstances.”

It said the third pivot and the hardest was towards growth-enhancing reforms.

The report said structural reforms were necessary to lift medium-term growth prospects, but support for the most vulnerable should be maintained

It said for reforms to be successful and socially accepted, there was a need to build trust between government and citizens.

“ Building trust between government and citizens, a two-way process throughout the policy design and the inclusion of proper compensation to offset potential harms, are essential features.

The report said that multilateral cooperation was needed more than ever to accelerate the green transition and to support debt-restructuring efforts. (NAN)

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