By Mohammed Dahiru Aminu

In my role as a climate policy scientist who travels across Africa for research, policy development, advocacy, and collaboration to address the most pressing challenge of our time, I often find myself being asked by the people I meet to reconcile the fact of Africa’s lower GHG emissions – in comparison to major industrialised countries – and the global call for an urgent climate action in Africa.

I often come across people who believe that given the global emissions statistics, persuading African countries to actively engage in climate mitigation efforts ought not be made a paramount task for Africa and its people.

It is true that Africa contributes the least to global warming in both absolute and per capita terms, such that it accounts for less than 4 percent of global GHG emissions.

The context of proxy emissions does not only suggest that African countries are not the top contributors to global GHG emissions in absolute terms, but also connotes that nations are not free of the products of industrialisation – often imported to improve the continent’s economic development and technological progress.

For example, according to the World Steel Association, all sub-Saharan African countries and the majority of other African countries are net importers of steel products. According to data from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), between January 2015 and April 2022, South Africa imported about 10,773.4 metric tons of steel.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that direct carbon dioxide emissions due to crude steel production is 1.4 metric tons of carbon dioxide per ton of steel produced. Other estimates even claim that the figures could be slightly higher, reaching 1.85 tons of carbon dioxide per ton of steel.

This suggests that South African steel imports within the period under OECD’s review could reach somewhere between 15,082.67 to 19,392.12 tons of direct carbon dioxide emissions.

In volume terms, to make sense of the significance of 1 ton of carbon dioxide, we could take the average car’s emission of around 2.3 kilogrammes of carbon dioxide per litre of gasoline burned. Thus, driving around 4,500 miles – about 7,242.05 kilometres – in an average car that utilises one gallon per 25 miles could result in one ton of carbon dioxide emissions.

Also, while the carbon intensity of electricity varies by region and energy sources, consuming around 10,000 to 12,000 kilowatt-hours of electricity, depending on the energy mix, could result in one ton of carbon dioxide emissions.

Air travel could also provide another example in demonstrating the significance of carbon footprints. If we can imagine that a roundtrip from New York to London can emit around one ton of carbon dioxide per passenger.

Estimating the exact carbon dioxide emissions resulting from all African countries becoming fully industrialised or transitioning to a manufacturing economy is a complex task and involves numerous variables.

The idea that industrialisation can play a crucial role in reducing poverty in Africa is not new and can be supported by various economic theories and historical examples that border on the potential for economic growth, jobs creation, and improvement of living standards.

The European Union (EU), comprising 27 member states, has a population of slightly over 448 million people, yet in 2022 the region produced 2,641 terawatt-hours of electricity to meet its energy demand. Africa has a population of approximately 1.4 billion people, with only a total installed capacity of 244.64 million kilowatts of electricity as of 2021. If we take the EU as a standard for Africa’s industrialisation, in the context of Africa’s population, the continent will need to produce about 4,953 terawatt-hours of electricity per annum.

While one may argue that Africa still maintains relatively low emissions, factoring in the concept of proxy emissions, it becomes reasonable to advocate for mitigation efforts in the more advanced countries producing industrialised goods imported into Africa, such as steel and refined petroleum products. However, it is crucial to recognise that despite Africa’s current lower emissions, the continent must strategically plan for full development and industrialisation, surpassing the energy needs of the EU.

 Africa can achieve this future by avoiding the climate mistakes made by industrialised nations. Like any region, the future of Africa is shaped by a complex interplay of economic, social, political, and environmental factors.

Industrialisation has historically been associated with higher productivity, income growth and poverty reduction, thus the failure to industrialise Africa may lead to continued reliance on traditional and often subsistence-based economic activities, invariably contributing to persistent poverty.

If Africa does not pursue industrialisation in a sustainable manner, several challenges and consequences would arise. To mitigate these challenges, it is essential for African countries to pursue industrialisation strategies that are sustainable, inclusive, and environmentally friendly – all of which require careful planning, investment in education and skills development, supportive policies, and collaboration with the international community.

But this is not the time to panic. African leaders should view the climate challenge as an opportunity for a promising future for the continent. Africa is vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change – from extreme weather events to agricultural pattern shifts.

By supporting mitigation efforts in the continent and beyond, African leaders would build resilience against the impacts and safeguard their communities and ecosystems. By embracing climate-friendly policies and technologies, African leaders would help to catalyse sustainable economic development to foster long-term economic resilience.

By actively participating in global climate initiatives, African leaders would enhance the continent’s standing on the international stage to attract funding and strengthen diplomatic ties. By taking advantage of Africa’s abundant renewable energy resources, including solar and wind, African leaders would be ensuring that their countries can leapfrog to cleaner energy alternatives and contribute to the global shift towards sustainable energy systems.

As climate change continues to threaten Africa’s unique biodiversity, its leaders can help to ensure that mitigation efforts are pitched towards protecting endangered species, the preservation of ecosystems, and maintaining the delicate balance of nature, upon which many communities depend for their livelihoods.

Embracing climate action in Africa also presents the opportunity for the youth to engage in innovation and entrepreneurship – and African leaders can help empower the younger generation by fostering the culture of environmental responsibility and driving a positive change toward innovation.

As Africa’s population grows, the health and wellbeing of Africans is important for the continent’s productivity. Climate change contributes to the spread of diseases, it impacts water and food security, and exacerbates health challenges.

The role played by African leaders in climate change mitigation would directly benefit public health and ensure a healthier and more prosperous future for Africa’s populations. As climate-induced challenges lead to displacement and migration, the prevention of further creation of climate refugees and maintaining social stability within and between African nations will depend on the mitigation measures championed by African leaders.

Finally, while Africa may not be a top GHG emitter, the continent holds a pivotal role in shaping the future global climate landscape. By prioritising climate mitigation, African countries can simultaneously address pressing environmental challenges, unlock economic opportunities, and contribute meaningfully to the shared goal of a sustainable and resilient world.