By Jude Opara

The 2023 general election may be over a year away but the preliminary political events that usually lead to every of such exercise have started to gain prominence. One of such events is the organization of the National convention by political parties.

The National Convention usually givens a political party the opportunity to elect its national officers to run its affairs ahead of the next election circle.

It is an event that tests the strength and cohesion of a political party because it is not always easy to manage the different interest groups that scramble for various positions. The crisis that most parties struggle with in most cases starts from the National Convention because those who may not have gotten what they bargained for if not properly and carefully handled could begin to constitute themselves into an internal opposition.

Recently, the main-opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) successfully held its own Convention where it also elected a new set of National Working Committee (NWC) members to be headed by former Senate President, Dr. Iyochia Ayu. The Ayu led NWC will succeed the outgoing one led by the embattled Prince Uche Secondus.

Since the PDP held its Convention, the pressure has been on the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to also conduct its own. Interestingly, since the sacking of the former National Chairman, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole in June 2020, the APC had set up the Caretaker/Extraordinary Convention Planning Committee (CECPC) headed by Governor Mai Mala Buni of Yobe state. The main task of the CECPC was to run the party for about six months and organize the National Convention where a new set of NWC members were to be elected. But the Buni Committee has continued to extend their stay in office with one excuse or the other. They started by organizing the nationwide membership registration exercise where they eventually claimed to have registered over 40 million members in Nigeria.    

Last week, the party announced that it would hold its national convention in February 2022. This was after the governors under the aegis of the Progressives Governors Forum (PGF) held its meeting in Abuja where they deliberated on the modalities for the convention. It was equally gathered that the meeting was another opportunity for the governors to weigh in on the contentious issue of having the Direct Primary mode in the Electoral Amendment Bill recently passed by the National Assembly.

The lawmakers who incidentally have a majority of APC members are insisting on the Direct Primary system, the governors on the other had are more comfortable with the Indirect Primary mode. Presently, both members of the National Assembly and the Nigerian Governors Forum (NGF) are seriously lobbying President Muhammadu Buhari to assent to the Bill which is already before him.

A dependable source at the National Secretariat of the APC revealed that one of the reasons why the party pushed its Convention till next year was partly to see how they can appeal to the President to decline assent to the Bill. The governors are said to be afraid of the Direct Primary because it may not be easy for them to easily manipulate the delegates who now will be all the card carrying members of the party. Before now, in the Indirect Primary, it was always easy for the governors to have their way because apart from the fact that most of their appointees as delegates, they also were always able to handle the other delegates.

In most of the state chapters of the APC, there are crisis raging between various contending forces. The state governors and the Ministers are largely boxed in a supremacy battle to control the party. From Kwara state where the governor, Alhaji Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq is pitched against the Minister of Culture and Information, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, to Zamfara State where the return to the party of Governor Bello Matawalle has not eased the tension in the state. Former governor, Abdulaziz Yari has his own faction just as former Senator; Kabiru Marafa also has his own faction. In fact, there is almost no state where the APC is not having a faction. In Imo state, it is Governor Hope Uzodimma against the members loyal to Senator Rochas Okorocha. In the neighboruing River state, there is a war between the former governor; Chibuike Amaechi and former Senator; Magnus Abe and their also divided supporters. In Ogun state, Governor Dapo Abiodun is at daggers drawn with his immediate predecessor, Senator Ibukunle Amosun. In Enugu state, a member of the CECPC and former Senate President, Dr. Ken Nnamani is being challenged by some party stakeholders who have continued to accuse him of engaging in anti-party activities. Recently, some stakeholders have written to the National Secretariat of the party claiming the party does not have a valid chairman in the state. The list is almost endless.

The CECPC which was inaugurated last June was given an initial timeline of six months to organize the Convention to elect a substantive NWC to replace the one led by Oshiomhole. But the committee has managed to remain in office despite the pockets of protests from some stakeholders in the party. Last week, a rather jittery CECPC hurriedly mobilized security operatives who laid siege on both ends of the street leading to the secretariat. About six patrol vans were mobilized. The Secretary of the CECPC, Sen. John Akpanudoedehe had said they mobilized the operatives as a routine exercise, but inside sources revealed that on that day, some aggrieved members were planning to protest at the secretariat of the party over the continuous stay in office as party Chairman by Governor Mai Mala Buni of Yobe state.   

Perhaps, one of the greatest challenges the ruling party is going to face as it plans the convention is about the zoning formula. Many stakeholders especially from the South are demanding that the presidency be zoned to the region after the eight years of President Buhari who hails from the North West. Also, in the South, the people of the South East are arguing that since the other two zones have produced the President, that the 2023 presidency should be zoned to them. There are some elements in the APC who will quickly note that those two presidents from the South were under the PDP and not the APC.

Some party faithful especially those from the North are positing that the seat should be thrown open so as to get credible people to contest. Even some youths from the South are equally demanding that the position of the National Youth Leader which has been held in the North since inception should now be zoned to them so as to give the youths on the other divide that sense of belonging. All these issues are very knotty and the APC must have to be very careful to navigate around them, so as to have harmonious party thereafter.

There is no gainsaying that one of the developments that usually lead to implosion in political parties is the National Convention. This is so because it is expected that those that will be elected will run the affairs of the party for the next four years, so in most cases those who will feel unsatisfied with the outcome will either leave the party of begin to constitute themselves into internal opposition.

Another dilemma of the APC is that President Buhari given his body language does not seem to be inclined to taking charge and that is why it appears that most of the decisions being taken in the party and even in governance are usually taken by those around him. These people have overly manipulated the situation by pushing out their own thoughts and personal agenda in the guise of speaking the mind of Mr. President.

The reality is that any faulty step by the APC could lead to a mass exodus because many political analysts believe that out there the average citizen is already buckling under the weight of the harsh economic situation and given the way politics plays out in Nigeria, the masses may want to consider another option.

In fact, to buttress these fears, a party stalwart recently informed this writer that the February date may still not be feasible because of the unresolved issues that followed the Ward, Local government and State Congresses of the party. He said it was for this that no definite date was fixed for the national Convention.