OPINION
Chatham House and the Trust We Must Rebuild
By Dakuku Peterside
Trust is the everyday currency of democratic life. When it drains away, institutions may keep their names and seals, but they lose their weight. The recent Chatham House/NBS findings do not merely offer another set of gloomy numbers; they describe a social contract under strain.
Almost half of Nigerians say they “greatly distrust” the Police. Roughly a third of the population deeply distrusts the Presidency and the federal government. Courts – meaning the judiciary, local councils, and state politicians, also score poorly. Beneath these data points lies a telling paradox: while a majority believe that in their communities power matters more than honesty, an even larger share feels bad when others are exploited. In other words, Nigerians have not lost their moral compass; they have lost confidence that integrity is rewarded.Trust is the quiet architecture that holds a nation together. When it erodes — as it has in Nigeria — it does not simply bruise reputations; it hollows out the very institutions meant to protect, serve, and stabilise society. Courts become venues of suspicion, rather than justice; the police a source of fear, rather than security; and ministries, echo chambers, rather than engines of policy.This column has warned about this drift before — “Dearth of Integrity in Public Life” (November 2023), “Greed, Ethics, and Public Service in Nigeria” (January 2024), “Trust and Economic Recovery” (November 2024), “Nigeria Decides 2023: Campaign Promises and the Issue of Trust” (January 2023), and “Accountability Deficit and the Transparency Question” (September 2023). The core message is simple – governance cannot function effectively without trust.This has profound consequences for the Presidency. In every constitutional democracy, the Presidency is more than an office; it is a symbol of sovereignty, the locus where the authority to govern becomes legitimate in the eyes of citizens.When trust in that symbol erodes, so does the ease with which government can secure compliance, enforce laws, and maintain order. The distance between decree and delivery becomes wider; the cost of governance climbs; every reform meets friction, suspicion, and delay. A president may still command formal power, but the informal consent on which power thrives becomes fragile.What is at stake is not just approval ratings; it is the state’s capacity to act in the public interest without perpetual resistance or doubt. If the centre cannot convincingly demonstrate fairness and results, people begin to conduct their lives outside the state — through private security, informal payments, and parallel services.Equally troubling is the report’s revelation of a near-consensus that political and economic power now outrank honesty and constitutionally guaranteed rights. When power eclipses principle, democracy becomes performance. Citizens recalibrate their expectations downward, accepting impunity as usual and corruption as inevitable.Over time, this corrodes social cohesion, as people retreat into private coping strategies — such as ethnic solidarities, informal economies, and transactional shortcuts — because public institutions often feel distant, arbitrary, or predatory.The economy also pays a price. Corruption is not just a moral wrong; it is an efficiency tax that gets compounded daily. It diverts public resources from classrooms, clinics, and roads. It weakens the rule of law and raises the cost of doing business.Nigeria’s headline GDP invites comparisons with Africa’s largest economies, yet GDP per capita tells a different story about the prosperity felt in households. It is no coincidence that a country battling service delivery gaps also records stubborn poverty levels.When citizens see budgets without clear outcomes, they tend to disengage. When they are asked to broaden the tax base, they ask a fair question: Where does the money go? Trust and tax morale are twins: You cannot raise one while neglecting the other.The trust deficit did not appear overnight. Nigerians have endured a quarter-century of anti-corruption campaigns, whose headlines often outpaced their results. Party loyalty has too frequently trumped public interest; selective enforcement has too usually replaced even-handed justice; and institutional incentives have rewarded survival within a broken system, rather than reforming it.The result is reform fatigue: people hear the right words, but they have learnt to wait for proof before they believe. Each unfulfilled pledge quietly raises the “cost of honesty” — the risk that playing by the rules leaves one poorer, slower, and excluded — while lowering the “cost of corruption” — the sense that wrongdoing is ordinary, profitable, and rarely punished.The divide between declarations and reality grows wider when official statements assert that corruption has been eliminated, while everyday experiences and independent data indicate the opposite. Leaders build public trust not by insisting that present hardships will lead to future benefits, but by clearly demonstrating the connection between income and outcomes, and by encouraging external validation.Humility is not a weakness in leadership; it is the precondition for collective effort in hard times. A candid admission — “we are falling short here; here is what we will do by these dates; and here is how you can check” — earns more trust than triumphal claims that do not match reality.Yet, the Chatham House work also reveals a quiet asset: civic readiness. Nearly half of the respondents believe their communities are willing to monitor public spending on development projects. This is not trivial.Countries that have successfully turned the tide on corruption did not do so through elite willpower alone; they built repeatable, citizen-centred systems that make wrongdoing harder, costlier, and riskier. Nigeria’s opportunity is to shift from exhortation to architecture: empower communities to track projects, publish contracts, and create channels where complaints trigger action. What would a credible reset look like?An immediate acknowledgement from the Presidency that trust is low and that rebuilding it is a national priority. This is not about blame; it is about alignment. A short, time-bound action plan should follow, with dates, owners, and public milestones.In policing, this could mean establishing independent complaints mechanisms that publish their outcomes, rolling out body-worn cameras in high-risk areas, and issuing annual integrity reports that identify trends and outline remedial actions.In procurement, make open contracting the default for all MDAs, and do not award major contracts until the beneficial ownership information is complete and publicly available. In whistleblowing, move beyond slogans: enact robust protections, guarantee anonymity, and demonstrate that serious tips lead to measurable enforcement.Policing should be fair and measurable. Trust in the police is often formed at the roadside, not in policy documents. Create an independent complaints mechanism with power to investigate, publish findings, and recommend sanctions — then follow through. Roll out body-worn cameras in hotspots with clear policies on usage, retention, and public release after critical incidents.Publish an annual integrity report that tracks complaints by type and outcome, stop-and-search data by location, and disciplinary actions taken. Train for procedural justice — the science that shows people comply when processes are transparent and respectful, even when outcomes are adverse. Pair this with officer protections and incentives, so that good policing is safer and more rewarding than rent-seeking.Digitise justice to reduce waiting times. Justice delayed is trust denied. Effective case tracking is crucial and must transparently present, in simple terms, the number of cases filed, the average processing time, and their outcomes. Establish service-level agreements for key stages — filing, arraignment, evidence disclosure, and trial scheduling — and provide quarterly performance reports. Give priority to corruption and violent crime cases by assigning specialist judges and setting strict time standards.Recognise that the social contract runs on evidence. The government seeks to expand the tax base. That will not happen at scale unless people see taxes turning into services and infrastructure in their neighbourhoods. Create a monthly “Money to Services” ledger that tracks, project by project, how revenue becomes outcomes — classrooms delivered, water schemes functioning, hospital wards equipped, roads drivable in the rainy season.Reform, of course, is not propaganda or a press release but a routine. To stay credible, it needs metrics. Publish a compact national scorecard each quarter: the share of citizens who “strongly trust” the police, Presidency, and federal government (and a target to raise this by a defined number of percentage points within 12–18 months).None of this will be painless. There will be resistance from those who benefit from the current equilibrium. There will be reform fatigue among citizens who have heard manypromises. There will be disinformation campaigns designed to muddy wins and amplify setbacks. And there will be economic shocks that test resolve. Mitigating these risks requires sequencing quick wins (especially in frontline services), protecting reform champions, and communicating with rhythm and candour.Trust, ultimately, is rational. People do not trust because they are told to; they trust because systems behave predictably and fairly. Nigerians have not lost their appetite for fairness — the values paradox of Chatham House clearly demonstrates this.What they have lost is the expectation that honesty is affordable. Rebuilding that expectation is the hard work ahead. It means reducing the cost of being honest and increasing the cost of being corrupt. It means moving from anti-corruption as theatre to integrity as infrastructure. It also requires a different posture from leadership — one that treats legitimacy not as inherited authority but as a renewable resource earned daily through conduct.If we can make taxes visibly become services, make justice measurably quicker and fairer, and make wrongdoing reliably expensive, trust will follow — not as sentiment, but as sense. That is the path out of cynicism: a state that performs in ways citizens can see, test, and believe.And when trust begins to return, it will return as something sturdier than optimism — confidence earned by institutions that work, without drama, in the ordinary rhythm of Nigerian life. The work ahead is to make integrity cheaper than impunity and service more rewarding than cynicism — so our institutions function not as fortresses of power, but as instruments of the common good.Dakuku Peterside, a public sector turnaround expert, public policy analyst and leadership coach, is the author of the forthcoming book, “Leading in a Storm”, a book on crisis leadership.
By Tochukwu Jimo Obi
The recent kidnapping of students and teachers in Oriire Local Government Area of Oyo State has once again exposed the frightening state of insecurity confronting Nigeria. Condemnations have continued to trail Friday’s bandits’ attack on three schools in the area, where an unspecified number of students and teachers were abducted, while two persons were reportedly killed.
The tragedy has left families devastated and communities gripped by fear, as another painful chapter is added to the growing list of violent attacks across the country.The attack, which occurred on May 16, saw armed bandits storm the community and abduct staff, students, and pupils from three schools; Community Grammar School, Baptist Nursery and Primary School, and L.
A. Primary School. Eyewitness accounts revealed that the attackers operated for hours without resistance, moving freely through the area while terrified residents watched helplessly. The incident has raised serious concerns about the safety of schools and the preparedness of security agencies to respond swiftly to emergencies.Worst of all, one of the teachers kidnapped during the attack was reportedly beheaded by the terrorists, a horrifying development that has deepened public outrage. Such brutality underscores the dangerous evolution of criminal activities in Nigeria, where terrorists and bandits now operate with alarming boldness and cruelty. The gruesome killing has further strengthened calls for urgent and decisive action from government authorities at all levels.
This unfortunate incident of school attacks is happening yet again despite repeated assurances from security agencies that schools across the country are safe. Nigerians have continued to hear promises of improved intelligence gathering, stronger patrols, and enhanced protection for vulnerable communities, yet attacks persist with devastating consequences. The contradiction between official assurances and the reality on the ground has weakened public confidence in the nation’s security architecture.
Another disturbing trend is that insecurity is rapidly spreading into the South-West region, an area once considered relatively safer compared to other parts of the country. Reports of Lakurawa terrorists and other armed groups establishing footholds in parts of the region have heightened fears that criminal networks are expanding their operations unchecked. The Oyo school kidnapping has therefore become more than a local tragedy; it is a warning sign that no region in Nigeria can afford to feel immune from terrorism and banditry.
Every now and then, government officials continue to assure citizens that security agencies are on top of the situation, yet many innocent people are still being killed and abducted with little or no arrests made afterward. More troubling is the fact that these attacks reportedly lasted for over two hours without any intervention from security operatives. This glaring security failure leaves Nigerians asking difficult but necessary questions about the nation’s emergency response capabilities.
How could terrorists, moving in large numbers on motorbikes, invade communities, abduct many people, and still escape without being tracked, stopped, or pursued effectively? What then are the military aircraft and advanced security equipment acquired with public funds meant for if they cannot be quickly deployed during emergencies? These are questions that citizens deserve answers to, especially as insecurity continues to consume lives and livelihoods across the country.
The Oyo incident has once again strengthened arguments for the establishment of state police across Nigeria. It is now obvious and evidently clear that the country’s centralized security structure requires urgent decentralization, similar to what operates in many secure nations around the world. State policing, if properly regulated and managed, could improve intelligence gathering, rapid response, and community-based security operations, particularly in rural areas that are often neglected under the current system.
It is no longer enough for leaders to merely condemn these attacks without taking concrete and sustained actions to secure the nation. President Bola Tinubu, as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, must urgently engage all stakeholders in the security sector, including international partners where necessary, to ensure that these terrorists are decisively defeated.
Government must also ensure that budgeted funds meant for security agencies, especially for the purchase of military hardware and equipment, are fully released and properly utilized. Beyond military action, authorities must intensify efforts to prevent the recruitment of vulnerable youths into criminal and terrorist groups. Nigerians are tired of mourning innocent victims. These killings must stop.
Tochukwu Jimo Obi, a concerned Nigerian writes from Obosi Anambra state.
By Fortune Abang
Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni, 81, sworn in for a seventh term after nearly four decades in power, has once again intensified debate over gerontocracy and political succession in Africa.
Museveni, who first assumed office in 1986, has now extended his rule into a fifth decade, making him one of the world’s longest-serving heads of state.
His latest mandate, expected to run until 2031, follows the January 2026 election in which he secured about 71.65 per cent of the vote, according to official results, defeating opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi, popularly known as Bobi Wine.
His continued stay in power has been enabled by key constitutional changes over time, including the removal of presidential term limits in 2005 and the abolition of the presidential age ceiling in 2017, reforms that effectively removed legal restrictions on tenure.
Across Africa, analysts say Uganda reflects a broader governance pattern in which long-serving leaders consolidate authority over extended periods.
Comparable examples often cited include Cameroon’s Paul Biya, in power since 1982, and Congo-Brazzaville’s Denis Sassou Nguesso, who first assumed office in 1979, both of whom have also presided over decades of uninterrupted or repeatedly renewed rule.
While Museveni’s supporters argue that his leadership has provided continuity and relative stability in a region frequently affected by conflict, critics say prolonged incumbency has gradually narrowed political competition and weakened institutional independence.
Uganda has maintained a degree of internal stability and played active roles in regional diplomacy and security operations in East and Central Africa.
Supporters point to these outcomes as evidence that long-term leadership can deliver policy continuity and state cohesion.
However, opposition voices and analysts argue that stability has come at a democratic cost, pointing to declining electoral competitiveness, constrained civic space and increasing centralisation of power around the executive.
The debate intensified after the removal of presidential term limits in 2005, followed by the scrapping of the age ceiling in 2017, which together removed two major constitutional barriers to leadership rotation.
These changes have been widely cited by governance analysts as pivotal in reshaping Uganda’s democratic structure.
In the January 2026 election, Museveni again defeated Bobi Wine, who garnered roughly 24.7 per cent of the vote, amid allegations from the opposition of irregularities and political repression during the electoral process.
Supporters of Museveni argue that his long rule has enabled economic transformation, infrastructure development and strengthened Uganda’s role in regional diplomacy.
Some regional leaders, including Burundi’s President Évariste Ndayishimiye, have previously described him as a stabilising figure in East Africa, crediting Uganda with supporting peace processes and regional cooperation.
Yet, critics argue that prolonged rule risks institutional stagnation, where governance structures become overly dependent on individual leadership rather than strong, independent institutions.
Analysts warn that this can weaken succession systems and limit democratic renewal.
A foreign policy analyst, speaking anonymously, said prolonged leadership can normalise “institutional dependence on individuals rather than systems,” arguing that such conditions undermine long-term democratic consolidation.
“No nation can sustainably develop when power remains concentrated in the same hands for decades while institutions fail to mature independently,” he said.
Beyond Uganda, Africa continues to record some of the world’s longest-serving leaders, reinforcing concerns about generational turnover in governance.
In several of these systems, electoral competition remains limited and constitutional reforms have often coincided with extended presidential tenure.
Foreign affairs commentator Collins Nweke argues that the central issue is not age itself, but accountability and leadership renewal, noting that political systems weaken when succession is delayed or constrained.
Other analysts emphasise the importance of civic awareness and institutional safeguards, particularly term limits, which they describe as critical tools for preventing excessive concentration of power.
A diplomat, also speaking on condition of anonymity, called for stronger electoral transparency mechanisms, including credible voter registration systems, independent election management bodies, and robust domestic and international observation frameworks.
An academic, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said stronger civic awareness could help societies resist unconstitutional tenure elongation.
“When citizens are politically informed and organised, sit-tight ambitions lose legitimacy and public support,” he said.
Museveni’s seventh term therefore reflects a wider continental tension between political continuity and democratic renewal, raising questions about whether African democracies are evolving toward stronger institutions or settling into prolonged cycles of personalised rule.
For supporters, his leadership represents stability in a volatile region.
For critics, it signals the entrenchment of gerontocracy and weakening democratic competition.
Between these positions lies a structural challenge that extends beyond Uganda; whether institutions in African states are strong enough to outlast individuals and guarantee orderly political succession. (NAN)
By Bart Nnaji
Africa’s energy journey is often portrayed as a stark choice between climate responsibility and development. In reality, the continent faces a more nuanced challenge: finding a fair, gradual energy transition that matches its unique needs and ambitions.
Technology and innovation can drive this change, helping secure affordable and sustainable energy for all.In the coming decades, Africa’s population is expected to soar to nearly 2.5 billion. Cities will grow. Industries will expand. Digital connections will multiply. The demand for energy will increase significantly.
Right now, expecting Africa to abandon fossil fuels overnight is neither realistic nor fair. In the near future, fossil fuels remain crucial for base power that is reliable, and affordable. In particular, natural gas is key transition fuel that will remain the base power solution for the next decade. Africa must not embrace renewable energy primarily when they have abundance of fossil fuel for their industrialization as other emerging and emerged nations have done. A just energy transition recognises these realities and seeks ways to build cleaner, more resilient systems over time.Technology as the Enabler of Africa’s Energy Future
Exciting new technologies are already reshaping Africa’s energy landscape:
Decentralised solutions, like mini-grids, off-grid solar, and batteries, bring electricity to places traditional grids can’t reach. By 2030, these distributed renewables could provide most new connections in underserved communities.
Smart grids and AI-driven management can reduce waste. They help utilities serve people better.
Modern batteries ensure that solar and wind energy can be delivered steadily, even when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing.
Decentralised approaches are essential to Africa’s path toward universal energy access. While technology is not a fix-all solution, it is a crucial enabler of efficiency, resilience, and affordability, shaping Africa’s energy future.
African entrepreneurs are leading much of this change. They’re developing solutions that meet local needs, such as pay-as-you-go solar, community-run mini-grids, and mobile payment platforms. These innovations don’t just bring power; they create jobs, build skills, and reap economic benefits for the continent.
But innovation alone isn’t enough. Investment is critical. According to the International Energy Agency, Africa needs about $90 billion annually to achieve a successful energy transition, but current funding falls short. Governments can help by setting clear, supportive policies that attract investment and make projects more affordable. Organisations like the African Development Bank say grid investment must rise dramatically, and clean energy spending should double by 2030 to keep up with growing demand.
From Energy Access to Economic and Human Impact
Reliable energy is more than just a technical necessity – it’s what fuels industrial growth. Picture the continent’s factories buzzing with activity, transport networks connecting people and goods, and data centres powering a vibrant digital economy.
Expanding decentralised solutions brings light to places that have been left in the dark for too long. It’s about giving children a place to study at night, helping clinics store vaccines safely, and empowering entrepreneurs to launch new businesses.
Of course, none of this works in isolation. Supportive policies, strong regulations, and partnerships between governments and private companies are essential. When African countries harmonise their rules and work together, they can create bigger markets. This draws even more investment and innovation.
Ultimately, Africa’s energy transition must be shaped by Africans themselves. The path forward is about collaboration, pragmatism, and investing in homegrown solutions. Africa’s mobile phone revolution showed the world how quickly the continent can leapfrog old systems. The same can happen with energy; by embracing flexible, tech-driven models that serve today’s and tomorrow’s needs.
Now is the time to come together to act boldly and invest in Africa’s energy future. By uniting efforts, we can turn potential into progress, ensuring resilient, inclusive, and sustainable energy for generations to come. Let’s power Africa’s future, together.
Prof. Bart O. Nnaji FAS, FA Eng. CON, NNOM – Founder/Chairman, Geometric Power Limited and former Nigerian Minister of Power
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