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Forex Supply-Demand Will Determine Rate in 2020-Rewane

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By Tony Obiechina

Renowned Economist and member of the Presidential Advisory Committee, Bismarck Rewane has said that the supply-demand dynamics would determine the exchange rate movement in January this year.


Rewane, who is the Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company (FDC) Limited said this at the weekend in a digest produce by FDC for Unity Bank.

He analyses that, “in the interim, lackluster demand from corporates is yet to fully resume and decelerating foreign exchange demand from manufacturers and traders for raw materials imports and inventory build- up will likely offset the expected increase in the demand for foreign exchange for international school fees payment”.


But last year, within the last two weeks of December, the naira traded within the range of N360/$ – N363/$. The currency began the period trading at N363/$, appreciated to N360/$ on December 17, before it reversed its gains to close at N362/$ on December 30.
The currency appreciated against both the pound and euro in the parallel market during the period. It gained 1.05% against the pound to close at N472/£ and 0.75 per cent against the euro to close at N395/€ on December 30.
During the year, the naira traded within the range of N359/$ – N364/$ in the parallel market. The naira appreciated up to N359/$ in the parallel market on October 16 before it depreciated to N364/$, its lowest value in the year on January 24.
At the interbank market, the naira depreciated marginally by 0.02 per cent to close at N307/$ from N306.95/$ on December 16. Similarly, the currency depreciated by 0.35 per cent at the IEFX window to close at N364.66/$ from N363.39/$ at the beginning of the period. Total turnover in the IEFX window increased by 3.36 per cent from $2.98 billion in the first half of December to $3.08 billion in the second half of the month.
Gross external reserves declined by 0.97 per cent ($38 million) to $38.68 billion on December 27 from $39.06 billion at the beginning of the period. On December 19, reserves dipped below $39 billion for the first time since April 2018. The sustained decline in external reserves led to a reduction in Nigeria’s import cover to 9.63 months at the end of the review period. In 2019, external reserves peaked at $45.18bn on June 11 45.18bn before declining steadily to $38.68 billion on December 30. The YTD loss in external reserves currently stands at $4.44 billion.

Business News

Budget Office Defends Tax Reform Acts, Seeks Due Process

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By Tony Obiechina, Abuja 

The Budget Office of the Federation has reaffirmed the integrity of Nigeria’s newly enacted Tax Reform Acts, cautioning against what it described as governance by speculation and unverified claims following allegations of post-passage alterations.

In a statement on Wednesday, the Budget Office said it had taken note of concerns raised by the Minority Caucus of the House of Representatives, stressing that the sanctity of the law is central to constitutional democracy and not a mere procedural formality.

According to the Office, any suggestion that a law could be altered after debate, passage, authentication, and presidential assent without due process would strike at the core of the Republic and undermine citizens’ right to be governed by transparent and stable laws.

However, it warned that democratic integrity is also endangered by the careless amplification of unverified claims. “A nation cannot be governed by insinuation or sustained on circulating documents of uncertain origin,” the statement noted, adding that public confidence, once shaken by speculation, is often difficult to restore.

The Budget Office emphasized that both government and citizens share a common interest in truth, clarity, and due process, noting that public finance depends heavily on trust in the legality and clarity of fiscal laws. It welcomed the decision of the National Assembly to investigate the allegations, describing institutional inquiry, not conjecture as the appropriate response to claims of illegality.

On public access to the law, the Office agreed that Nigerians and the business community are entitled to clear and authoritative texts of all laws they are required to obey. It clarified, however, that the authenticity of legislation is determined by certified legislative records and official publication processes, not by informal or viral reproductions.

The statement also underscored the importance of separation of powers, warning that claims suggesting Nigeria is being governed by “fake laws,” if not backed by established facts, risk eroding confidence in democratic institutions.

 At the same time, it stressed that legislative scrutiny should not be dismissed by the executive, noting that oversight is a constitutional duty, not an act of hostility.

From a fiscal perspective, the Budget Office said legal certainty is essential for revenue projections, macroeconomic stability, budget credibility, and investor confidence. While it is not the custodian of legislative records, it maintained that uncertainty around operative tax provisions directly affects economic planning.

To restore confidence, the Office proposed a set of measures, including the publication of verified reference texts in a single public repository, orderly access to Certified True Copies for stakeholders, clear public explanations where discrepancies are alleged, and strict alignment of all implementing regulations with authenticated legal texts.

Addressing calls for suspension of the tax reforms, the Budget Office cautioned against allowing prudence to slide into paralysis. It argued that properly implemented tax reform is necessary to reduce dependence on borrowing and inflationary financing, while easing indirect burdens on vulnerable citizens.

“Where clarification is required, it must be provided; where correction is required, it must be effected; where investigation is required, it must proceed,” the statement said, adding that governance and reform should not be stalled by unresolved conjecture.

The Office concluded by describing taxation as a democratic covenant that binds citizens and the state, insisting that compliance depends on transparency and trust. It called on political actors to protect institutions as much as positions, urging citizens and businesses to rely on verified sources and resist the spread of unauthenticated information.

The statement was signed by Tanimu Yakubu, Director-General of the Budget Office of the Federation, who reaffirmed the agency’s commitment to fiscal transparency, institutional integrity, and reforms that advance national prosperity while safeguarding citizens’ rights.

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Tinubu Congratulates Dangote on World Bank Appointment

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By Jennifer Enuma, Abuja

President Bola Tinubu has congratulated Alhaji Aliko Dangote, the President of Dangote Group, on his appointment to the World Bank’s Private Sector Investment Lab, a body tasked with promoting investment and job creation in emerging economies.

In a statement by Special Adviser on Media and Publicity, Bayo Onanauga, the President described the appointment as apt, given Dangote’s rich private sector experience, strategic investments, and many employment opportunities created through his Dangote Group.

The Dangote Group became one of Africa’s leading conglomerates through innovation and continuous investment.

Dangote Group’s business interests span cement, fertiliser, salt, sugar, oil, and gas. However, the $20 billion Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals remains Africa’s most daring project and most significant single private investment.

“President Tinubu urges Dangote to bring to bear on the World Bank appointment his transformative ideas and initiatives to impact the emerging markets across the world fully” the statement said.

The World Bank announced Dangote’s appointment on Wednesday, as part of a broader expansion of its Private Sector Investment Lab. The lab now enters a new phase aimed at scaling up solutions to attract private capital and create jobs in the developing world.

The CEO of Bayer AG, Bill Anderson, the Chair of Bharti Enterprises, Sunil Bharti Mittal, and the President and CEO of Hyatt Hotels Corporation, Mark Hoplamazian, are on the Private Sector Investment Lab with Dangote.

The World Bank said the expanded membership brings together business leaders with proven track records in generating employment in developing economies, supporting the Bank’s focus on job creation as a central pillar of global development.

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Business Analysis

Nigeria Customs Generates over N1.75trn Revenue in 2025

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By Joel Oladele, Abuja

The Nigeria Customs Service (NSC) has generated an impressive N1,751,502,252,298.05 in revenue during the first quarter of 2025.

The Comptroller-General (CG) of the Service, Bashir Adeniyi, disclosed this yesterday, during a press briefing in Abuja.

According to Adeniyi, the achievement not only surpasses the quarterly target but also marks a substantial increase compared to the same period last year, reflecting the effectiveness of recent reforms and the dedication of customs officers across the nation.

“This first quarter of 2025 has seen our officers working tirelessly at borders and ports across the nation.

I’m proud to report we’ve made real progress on multiple fronts—from increasing revenue collections to intercepting dangerous shipments,” Adeniyi stated.

He attributed this success to the reforms initiated under President Bola Tinubu’s administration and the guidance of the Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Olawale Edun.

The CG noted that the revenue collection for Q1 2025 exceeded the quarterly benchmark of N1,645,000,000,000.00 by N106.5 billion, achieving 106.47% of the target. This performance represents a remarkable 29.96% increase compared to the N1,347,705,251,658.31 collected in Q1 2024.

Adeniyi highlighted the month-by-month growth, noting that January’s collection of N647,880,245,243.67 surpassed its target by 18.12%, while February and March also showed positive trends.

 “I’m pleased to report the Service’s revenue collection for Q1 2025 totaled N1,751,502,252,298.05.

“Against our annual target of N6,580,000,000,000.00, the first quarter’s proportional benchmark stood at N1,645,000,000,000.00. I’m proud to announce we’ve exceeded this target by N106.5 billion, achieving 106.47% of our quarterly projection. This outstanding performance represents a substantial 29.96% increase  compared  to  the  same  period  in  2024,  where  we  collected N1,347,705,251,658.31.

“Our month-by-month analysis reveals even more encouraging details of this growth trajectory,” Adeniyi said.

In addition to revenue collection, Adeniyi said the NCS maintained robust anti-smuggling operations, recording 298 seizures with a total Duty Paid Value (DPV) of ₦7,698,557,347.67.

He stated that rice was the most seized commodity, with 135,474 bags intercepted, followed by petroleum products and narcotics.

“From rice to wildlife, these seizures show our targeted approach,” Adeniyi remarked, noting the NCS’s commitment to combating smuggling and protecting national revenue.

Adeniyi also highlighted key initiatives, including the expansion of the B’Odogwu customs clearance platform and the launch of the Authorized Economic Operators Programme, which aims to streamline processes for compliant businesses. The NCS’s Corporate Social Responsibility Programme, “Customs Cares,” was also launched, focusing on education, health, and environmental sustainability.

Despite these achievements, the CG noted that the NCS faced challenges, including exchange rate volatility and non-compliance issues. Adeniyi acknowledged the need for ongoing adaptation and collaboration with stakeholders to address these challenges effectively.

Looking ahead, the NCS aims to continue its modernization efforts and enhance service delivery, ensuring that it remains a critical institution in Nigeria’s economic and security landscape.

“Results speak louder than plans; faster clearances through B’Odogwu, trusted traders in the AEO program, and measurable food price relief from our exemptions. We’ll keep scaling what works,” he concluded.

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