Economy
IMF Slashes Global Growth Forecast from 3.4% to 2.8%in 2023
By Tony Obiechina, Abuja
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said yesterday that the rising debt levels among countries are currently limiting their ability to respond to new economic challenges.
This is just as the Fund sketched a bleak picture of what is in store for the global economy, estimating that growth will slow more than expected this year.
The IMF said the “anemic outlook” reflects the higher interest rates needed to bring down persistent inflation, the deterioration of financial conditions amid banking turmoil, the war in Ukraine and growing geo-economic fragmentation.
The IMF Director of Research Department, Pierre-Oliver Gourinchas said these while releasing the World Economic Outlook report.
Nigeria’s total public debt as at December 31, 2022, consisting of the domestic and external debt stocks of the Federal Government and the 36 State Governments and the Federal Capital Territory rose to N46.25trn or $103.11bn.
The total public debt to Gross Domestic Product ratio for December 31, 2022, was 23.20 per cent and indicates a slight increase from the figure for December 31, 2022, at 22.47 per cent
The ratio of 23.20 per cent is still within the 40 per cent limit self-imposed by Nigeria, the 55 per cent limit recommended by the World Bank/international Monetary Fund, and, the 70 per cent limit recommended by the Economic Community of West African States.
The IMF Director said that the global economy would witness a decline in global growth rate from 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.8 percent in 2023.
He said commodity prices that rose sharply following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have moderated, but the war continues, and geo-political tensions are high.
According to the Fund, infectious COVID-19 strains caused widespread outbreaks last year, but economies that were hit hard such as China appear to be recovering, easing supply-chain disruptions
“Debt levels remain high, limiting the ability of fiscal policymakers to respond to new challenges. Commodity prices that rose sharply following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have moderated, but the war continues, and geo-political tensions are high.
“Infectious COVID-19 strains caused widespread outbreaks last year, but economies that were hit hard—most notably China—appear to be recovering, easing supply-chain disruptions.
“Despite the fillips from lower food and energy prices and improved supply-chain functioning, risks are firmly to the downside with the increased uncertainty from the recent financial sector turmoil.
“The baseline forecast, which assumes that the recent financial sector stresses are contained, is for growth to fall from 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.8 percent in 2023, before rising slowly and settling at 3.0 percent five years out––the lowest medium-term forecast in decades.
“Advanced economies are expected to see an especially pronounced growth slowdown, from 2.7 percent in 2022 to 1.3 percent in 2023. In a plausible alternative scenario with further financial sector stress, global growth declines to about 2.5 percent in 2023––the weakest growth since the global downturn of 2001, barring the initial COVID-19 crisis in 2020 and during the global financial crisis in 2009––with advanced economy growth falling below one percent.
“The anemic outlook reflects the tight policy stances needed to bring down inflation, the fallout from the recent deterioration in financial conditions, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and growing geo-economic fragmentation,” he said.
The IMF projected in the Report that global headline inflation will drop from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 7.0 percent in 2023 on the back of lower commodity prices, but underlying core inflation is likely to decline more slowly.
“Inflation’s return to target is unlikely before 2025 in most cases. Once inflation rates are back to targets, deeper structural drivers will likely reduce interest rates toward their pre-pandemic levels
“Risks to the outlook are heavily skewed to the downside, with the chances of a hard landing having risen sharply,” it added.
The Report stated further that financial sector stress could amplify and contagion could take hold, weakening the real economy through a sharp deterioration in financing conditions and compelling central banks to reconsider their policy paths.
It added that pockets of sovereign debt distress could, in the context of higher borrowing costs and lower growth, spread and become more systemic.
In its recommendations in the Report, the IMF called for simultaneous, massive and synchronous tightening of monetary policy by most central banks, adding that this should start to bear fruit, with inflation moving back toward its targets.
“More than ever, policymakers will need a steady hand and clear communication. The appropriate course of action is contingent on the state of the financial system. As long as the latter remains reasonably stable, as it is now, monetary policy should stay firmly focused on bringing inflation down.
“A silver lining is that the banking turmoil will help slow aggregate activity as banks curtail lending in the face of rising funding costs and of the need to act more prudently. In and of itself, this should partially mitigate the need for further monetary policy tightening.
“But any expectation that central banks will abandon the fight against inflation would have the opposite effect: lowering yields, supporting activity beyond what is warranted, and complicating the task of central banks.”
Economy
Imo records over $1m from non-oil exports in 2025 – NEPC
The Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) says exporters in Imo generated a total of 1,244,095 dollars as proceeds from export trade in 2025.
The Imo Coordinator of the council, Mr Anthony Ajuruchi, disclosed this during a follow-up engagement with cocoa farmers in the state on Thursday in Owerri.
50 cocoa farmers and exporters in Imo received 30 cocoa seedlings each in 2025 as part of interventions to boost production for export.
Ajuruchi said the amount was derived from proceeds of both formal and informal export transactions carried out by the farmers within the 2025 fiscal year.
He commended the Executive Director of NEPC, Mrs Nonye Ayeni, and the management team for their support and commitment to the growth of the export market in Imo and across the country.
According to him, the council recorded notable achievements in 2025, including the organisation of capacity-building programmes on non-oil export, product packaging and labelling.
“In addition to our interventions for cashew farmers, we conducted trainings on product development and adaptation, export contracts, market penetration, product certification and export documentation procedures.
“We also trained about 600 exporters and small and medium-scale enterprises,” he said.
Ajuruchi said the engagement with the cocoa farmers was aimed at obtaining feedback and brainstorming on strategies to increase production and export volume in 2026.
One of the beneficiaries, Mrs Sophia Orji, said the cocoa seedlings she received were doing well and had started fruiting after 17 months.
Another farmer, Mrs Mary Okeke, said her cocoa plants were thriving and appealed to NEPC to extend similar support to farmers during the rainy season.
Also speaking, Mr Canice Nze, Director of Produce in the Imo Ministry of Trade, Commerce and Investment, urged the farmers to register with the ministry to enable them benefit from cooperative structures and access possible government grants. (NAN)
Economy
NCC, CBN Approve Refund Framework for Failed Airtime and Data Transactions
By David Torough, Abuja
In line with the consumer-focused objectives of the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the two regulators have drawn up a framework to address consumer complaints arising from unsuccessful airtime and data transactions during network downtimes, system glitches, or human input errors.
The framework is the outcome of several months of engagements involving the NCC, the CBN, Mobile Network Operators (MNOs), Value Added Service (VAS) providers, Deposit Money Banks (DMBs), and other relevant stakeholders.
According to the NCC, these engagements were prompted by a rising incidence of failed airtime and data purchases, where subscribers were debited without receiving value and experienced delays in resolution.
“The Framework represents a unified position by both the telecommunications and financial sectors on addressing such complaints. It identifies and tackles the root causes of failed airtime and data transactions, including instances where bank accounts are debited without successful delivery of services. It also prescribes an enforceable Service Level Agreement (SLA) for MNOs and DMBs, clearly outlining the roles and responsibilities of each stakeholder in the transaction and resolution process,” a statement by Head of Public Affairs of NCC, Nnen Ukoha said.
Under the new framework, where a purchaser is debited but fails to receive value for airtime or data—whether the failure occurs at the bank level or with an NCC licensee—the purchaser is entitled to a refund within 30 seconds, except in circumstances where the transaction remains pending, of which the refund can take up to 24 hours.
The framework further mandates operators to notify consumers via SMS of the success or failure of every transaction. It also addresses erroneous recharges to ported lines, incorrect airtime or data purchases, and instances where transactions are made to the wrong phone number.
Director of Consumer Affairs at the NCC, Mrs. Freda Bruce-Bennett in a comment on the development said the framework also establishes a Central Monitoring Dashboard to be jointly hosted by the NCC and the CBN. According to her, the dashboard will enable both regulators to monitor failures, the responsible party, refunds, and track SLA breaches in real time.
“Failed top-ups rank among the top three consumer complaints, and in line with our commitment to addressing these priority issues, we were determined to resolve it within the shortest possible time,” she said.
“We are grateful to all stakeholders—particularly the Central Bank of Nigeria and its leadership—for their tireless commitment to resolving this issue and arriving at this framework, and for ensuring that consumers of telecommunications services receive full value for their purchases.
“So far, pending the approval of management of both regulators on the framework, MNOs and banks have collectively made refunds of over N10 billion to customers for failed transactions” she explained .
Mrs. Bruce-Bennett further noted that implementation of the framework is expected to commence on March 1, 2026, once the two regulators have made final approvals, and technical integration by all MNOs, VAS providers and DMBs is concluded.
Business News
Budget Office Defends Tax Reform Acts, Seeks Due Process
By Tony Obiechina, Abuja
The Budget Office of the Federation has reaffirmed the integrity of Nigeria’s newly enacted Tax Reform Acts, cautioning against what it described as governance by speculation and unverified claims following allegations of post-passage alterations.
In a statement on Wednesday, the Budget Office said it had taken note of concerns raised by the Minority Caucus of the House of Representatives, stressing that the sanctity of the law is central to constitutional democracy and not a mere procedural formality.
According to the Office, any suggestion that a law could be altered after debate, passage, authentication, and presidential assent without due process would strike at the core of the Republic and undermine citizens’ right to be governed by transparent and stable laws.
However, it warned that democratic integrity is also endangered by the careless amplification of unverified claims. “A nation cannot be governed by insinuation or sustained on circulating documents of uncertain origin,” the statement noted, adding that public confidence, once shaken by speculation, is often difficult to restore.
The Budget Office emphasized that both government and citizens share a common interest in truth, clarity, and due process, noting that public finance depends heavily on trust in the legality and clarity of fiscal laws. It welcomed the decision of the National Assembly to investigate the allegations, describing institutional inquiry, not conjecture as the appropriate response to claims of illegality.
On public access to the law, the Office agreed that Nigerians and the business community are entitled to clear and authoritative texts of all laws they are required to obey. It clarified, however, that the authenticity of legislation is determined by certified legislative records and official publication processes, not by informal or viral reproductions.
The statement also underscored the importance of separation of powers, warning that claims suggesting Nigeria is being governed by “fake laws,” if not backed by established facts, risk eroding confidence in democratic institutions.
At the same time, it stressed that legislative scrutiny should not be dismissed by the executive, noting that oversight is a constitutional duty, not an act of hostility.
From a fiscal perspective, the Budget Office said legal certainty is essential for revenue projections, macroeconomic stability, budget credibility, and investor confidence. While it is not the custodian of legislative records, it maintained that uncertainty around operative tax provisions directly affects economic planning.
To restore confidence, the Office proposed a set of measures, including the publication of verified reference texts in a single public repository, orderly access to Certified True Copies for stakeholders, clear public explanations where discrepancies are alleged, and strict alignment of all implementing regulations with authenticated legal texts.
Addressing calls for suspension of the tax reforms, the Budget Office cautioned against allowing prudence to slide into paralysis. It argued that properly implemented tax reform is necessary to reduce dependence on borrowing and inflationary financing, while easing indirect burdens on vulnerable citizens.
“Where clarification is required, it must be provided; where correction is required, it must be effected; where investigation is required, it must proceed,” the statement said, adding that governance and reform should not be stalled by unresolved conjecture.
The Office concluded by describing taxation as a democratic covenant that binds citizens and the state, insisting that compliance depends on transparency and trust. It called on political actors to protect institutions as much as positions, urging citizens and businesses to rely on verified sources and resist the spread of unauthenticated information.
The statement was signed by Tanimu Yakubu, Director-General of the Budget Office of the Federation, who reaffirmed the agency’s commitment to fiscal transparency, institutional integrity, and reforms that advance national prosperity while safeguarding citizens’ rights.


