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OPINION

Niger: The Lengthening Shadow of Miilitary Rule

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By Dan Agbese

It is bad news for Africa. Democracy is once again on the run from the gun. Military adventurers have shot their way into power in six sub-Saharan African countries in three years, between 2020 and 2023.

Mali (2020), Chad (2021), Guinea (2021), Burkina Faso (2022), Sudan (2021) and the latest, Mali, a couple of weeks ago as of this writing, changed agbada for khaki.
 

Five of these countries are in the Sahel region made up of nine countries, including Nigeria. The five countries are among the poorest in the world. No matter how poor an African country might be, it offers its leaders vast opportunities to bury their conscience in the sands of pretentious leadership and corruptly live off the little the country has to offer and corruptly impoverish it.

The lure of corruption is a strong pull on the continent. Power, acquired through the ballot box or the barrel of the gun, remains the shortest route to personal fortunes and wealth on the continent. Democracy be damned. Few men, if any, who saw that route ignored it and chose to live in the penury of missed opportunities.

Tobthink that we have not seen the last of military adventurers on the continent should worry the continent and its people beyond losing sleep at night. It is bad news for Africa, which for much of its life as a colonial outpost, has suffered and suffers from the ravages of external and internal imperialism. It is worse news for democracy because the retreat of democracy in obedience to the dictates of the gun denies the people the right to choose and institute governments of their choice, however flawed the conduct of elections might be. Democracy cannot take root, let alone grow, when it is frequently interrupted by ambitious military men whose gun casts menacing shadow on the continent. 

The regress to dictatorship anywhere on the continent is a regress to dictatorship everywhere on the continent. Seventy-one years ago, on July 23, 1952, the late Col Gamal Abdel Nasser and the Free Officers Movement in Egypt began the process that would eventually spread like an unruly cancer to the rest of Africa when they overthrew King Farouk. 

On June 18, 1953, Egypt ceased to be a monarchy and was declared a republic with Major-General Muhammad Naguib as the first president and prime minister of the republic. Nasser was appointed deputy premier and minister of the interior. He was the king maker and eventually became prime minister and chairman of the Revolutionary Command Council in 1954 and moved up two years later as president in 1956. 

He put off his uniform. But he and his fellow officers had told African soldiers what was possible with the barrel of the gun. They proved a bad example for the military in other African countries, beginning with the coup against President Sylvanus Olympio by Col Gnassingbe Eyadema on January 13, 1963. Many other African countries, including Nigeria, soon cottoned on to it and the sound of the boot crushing democracy and the shrill cry of a weeping democracy could be heard down the length and breadth of the continent.

Charges against the civilian regimes followed what became a well-oiled template parroted by the gun men each time they lock out democracy in a particular country. Corruption and poor governance are the first items on the template. They are the common afflictions among African leaders, past and present. The new men in Niger resorted to the same template and told the world they sacked the democratically elected government of President Mohamed Bazoun because it failed to meet the expectations of the people. The history of military rule in Africa tells a wretched story of the capacity of the military to rise above the venality and the plutocracy. Their history has consistently failed to prove that the unform turned the military rulers into poster children for good governance and incorruptibility. They too were felled by the same affliction they used as excuses to impose their will on the people with the ever present gun.

Then as now, the civilian leaders felt helpless. They could not fight back because they needed no one to tell them it was suicidal for them to take on the armed military men. More importantly, they took a do-noting refuge under the OAU charter that barred member nations from interfering in the affairs of fellow member nations. The clause increased the impotence of African leaders in taking such steps as might be necessary to help one another. 

I have not read the charter of the African Union, AU, the successor continental body to the OAU, but it appears it has eliminated that charter. Still, AU and the African leaders confine themselves to merely condemning the military adventurers in Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Chad and now Mali. Such verbal canes across the back of the military men are easily absorbed by their uniform.

AU and ECOWAS have given the Malian miliary leaders 14- and seven-day ultimatum respectively to retreat into their barracks and return Bazoun to power. The Malian strong men know only too well that the African leaders are following the convention to bark and that when the push comes to shove, they cannot bite. Neither AU nor ECOWAS has a standing army to take on the Malians. The defence chiefs of the rest of ECOWAS said they were getting ready to take them on. They should have established a reputation of intolerance to military rule since 2020 when the Malian soldiers sacked the elected government in that country. 

A military option should not be embarked upon lightly. All the options must be weighed to ensure that such action does not create more complicated problems than we have in the sub-region. This is as delicate as they come. Even if they can raise an army to be deployed to Niger, the African leaders would do better than think twice before taking them on. Nigeria has a long border with Mali. At least five states share borders with that country. A military operation will create enormous human and resource problems for our country with refugees seeking accommodation and protection here. Such a large number of refugees added to the thousands of internally displaced persons barely surviving in camps will buck the system.

No one should under-estimate the dilemma that African leaders face over Niger. If they get rid of the military there, the military rulers in Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Chad, and Sudan will not return to the barracks out of fright. African soldiers believe they have supervisory authorities over civilian regimes in every African country. They believe their right to truncate democracy is a duty imposed on them by their uniform. It is not.

Since no constitution in any African country recognises the assumed right of the military men to be judge and jury on the performance of a civilian regime, the gun confers faux legitimacy on military rule. A uniform is made of a piece of khaki cloth. The logic of military intervention that the uniform worn by one set of Africans makes them more competent, more patriotic, or less corrupt than the same Africans in agbada is patently flawed. Sadly, we have swallowed its hollowness and fed on military propaganda through the long cold days of military dictatorship in many African countries, including ours. It is, as Malcom X once said, always the ballot or the bullet. 

There is a moral dilemma here too. Nearly all the countries in the West African sub-region were at one time or another ruled by the military. The Nigerien military men may scoff at the moral sermon by the ECOWAS leaders who tell them that military rule in their country is wrong but was right in the immediate past of these countries and in the six countries where the khaki, not the agbada, holds sway.

ECOWAS leaders must think of a more creative approach to the menace of military intervention in the sub-region. Democracy under the shadow of the gun is democracy threatened by the gun. Perhaps, they need to revisit the diarchy prescription by the late Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe. More importantly, African leaders must strive to govern well and respect the rule of law and act in accordance with best practices in the democratic ethos. They must change their style of leadership by their conspicuous indulgence in corruption and open theft of the common wealth of the people, their egregious disdain for the rule of law and their sense of justice and fairness entangled in their vanity and venality as well religious and ethnic biases. 

These may not necessarily be antidotes against military intervention because ambitious military men will find excuses to resort to the gun, but they would be a step forward. The people will support their civilian leaders if they are not denied their rights, are justly and fairly treated by their civilian leaders. If they are not hungry and thus induced by their circumstances to pour out to the streets in praise of the soldiers, they may rise and confront the armed military men with clubs and stones and chase them out. 

OPINION

Oyo School Abductions: Time for Concrete Action Against Terrorism

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By Tochukwu Jimo Obi

The recent kidnapping of students and teachers in Oriire Local Government Area of Oyo State has once again exposed the frightening state of insecurity confronting Nigeria. Condemnations have continued to trail Friday’s bandits’ attack on three schools in the area, where an unspecified number of students and teachers were abducted, while two persons were reportedly killed.

The tragedy has left families devastated and communities gripped by fear, as another painful chapter is added to the growing list of violent attacks across the country.

The attack, which occurred on May 16, saw armed bandits storm the community and abduct staff, students, and pupils from three schools; Community Grammar School, Baptist Nursery and Primary School, and L.

A. Primary School. Eyewitness accounts revealed that the attackers operated for hours without resistance, moving freely through the area while terrified residents watched helplessly. The incident has raised serious concerns about the safety of schools and the preparedness of security agencies to respond swiftly to emergencies.

Worst of all, one of the teachers kidnapped during the attack was reportedly beheaded by the terrorists, a horrifying development that has deepened public outrage. Such brutality underscores the dangerous evolution of criminal activities in Nigeria, where terrorists and bandits now operate with alarming boldness and cruelty. The gruesome killing has further strengthened calls for urgent and decisive action from government authorities at all levels.

This unfortunate incident of school attacks is happening yet again despite repeated assurances from security agencies that schools across the country are safe. Nigerians have continued to hear promises of improved intelligence gathering, stronger patrols, and enhanced protection for vulnerable communities, yet attacks persist with devastating consequences. The contradiction between official assurances and the reality on the ground has weakened public confidence in the nation’s security architecture.

Another disturbing trend is that insecurity is rapidly spreading into the South-West region, an area once considered relatively safer compared to other parts of the country. Reports of Lakurawa terrorists and other armed groups establishing footholds in parts of the region have heightened fears that criminal networks are expanding their operations unchecked. The Oyo school kidnapping has therefore become more than a local tragedy; it is a warning sign that no region in Nigeria can afford to feel immune from terrorism and banditry.

Every now and then, government officials continue to assure citizens that security agencies are on top of the situation, yet many innocent people are still being killed and abducted with little or no arrests made afterward. More troubling is the fact that these attacks reportedly lasted for over two hours without any intervention from security operatives. This glaring security failure leaves Nigerians asking difficult but necessary questions about the nation’s emergency response capabilities.

How could terrorists, moving in large numbers on motorbikes, invade communities, abduct many people, and still escape without being tracked, stopped, or pursued effectively? What then are the military aircraft and advanced security equipment acquired with public funds meant for if they cannot be quickly deployed during emergencies? These are questions that citizens deserve answers to, especially as insecurity continues to consume lives and livelihoods across the country.

The Oyo incident has once again strengthened arguments for the establishment of state police across Nigeria. It is now obvious and evidently clear that the country’s centralized security structure requires urgent decentralization, similar to what operates in many secure nations around the world. State policing, if properly regulated and managed, could improve intelligence gathering, rapid response, and community-based security operations, particularly in rural areas that are often neglected under the current system.

It is no longer enough for leaders to merely condemn these attacks without taking concrete and sustained actions to secure the nation. President Bola Tinubu, as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, must urgently engage all stakeholders in the security sector, including international partners where necessary, to ensure that these terrorists are decisively defeated.

Government must also ensure that budgeted funds meant for security agencies, especially for the purchase of military hardware and equipment, are fully released and properly utilized. Beyond military action, authorities must intensify efforts to prevent the recruitment of vulnerable youths into criminal and terrorist groups. Nigerians are tired of mourning innocent victims. These killings must stop.

Tochukwu Jimo Obi, a concerned Nigerian writes from Obosi Anambra state.

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OPINION

Museveni’s Seventh Term and Africa’s Gerontocracy Debate

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By Fortune Abang

Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni, 81, sworn in for a seventh term after nearly four decades in power, has once again intensified debate over gerontocracy and political succession in Africa.

Museveni, who first assumed office in 1986, has now extended his rule into a fifth decade, making him one of the world’s longest-serving heads of state.

His latest mandate, expected to run until 2031, follows the January 2026 election in which he secured about 71.65 per cent of the vote, according to official results, defeating opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi, popularly known as Bobi Wine.

His continued stay in power has been enabled by key constitutional changes over time, including the removal of presidential term limits in 2005 and the abolition of the presidential age ceiling in 2017, reforms that effectively removed legal restrictions on tenure.

Across Africa, analysts say Uganda reflects a broader governance pattern in which long-serving leaders consolidate authority over extended periods.

Comparable examples often cited include Cameroon’s Paul Biya, in power since 1982, and Congo-Brazzaville’s Denis Sassou Nguesso, who first assumed office in 1979, both of whom have also presided over decades of uninterrupted or repeatedly renewed rule.

While Museveni’s supporters argue that his leadership has provided continuity and relative stability in a region frequently affected by conflict, critics say prolonged incumbency has gradually narrowed political competition and weakened institutional independence.

Uganda has maintained a degree of internal stability and played active roles in regional diplomacy and security operations in East and Central Africa.

Supporters point to these outcomes as evidence that long-term leadership can deliver policy continuity and state cohesion.

However, opposition voices and analysts argue that stability has come at a democratic cost, pointing to declining electoral competitiveness, constrained civic space and increasing centralisation of power around the executive.

The debate intensified after the removal of presidential term limits in 2005, followed by the scrapping of the age ceiling in 2017, which together removed two major constitutional barriers to leadership rotation.

These changes have been widely cited by governance analysts as pivotal in reshaping Uganda’s democratic structure.

In the January 2026 election, Museveni again defeated Bobi Wine, who garnered roughly 24.7 per cent of the vote, amid allegations from the opposition of irregularities and political repression during the electoral process.

Supporters of Museveni argue that his long rule has enabled economic transformation, infrastructure development and strengthened Uganda’s role in regional diplomacy.

Some regional leaders, including Burundi’s President Évariste Ndayishimiye, have previously described him as a stabilising figure in East Africa, crediting Uganda with supporting peace processes and regional cooperation.

Yet, critics argue that prolonged rule risks institutional stagnation, where governance structures become overly dependent on individual leadership rather than strong, independent institutions.

Analysts warn that this can weaken succession systems and limit democratic renewal.

A foreign policy analyst, speaking anonymously, said prolonged leadership can normalise “institutional dependence on individuals rather than systems,” arguing that such conditions undermine long-term democratic consolidation.

“No nation can sustainably develop when power remains concentrated in the same hands for decades while institutions fail to mature independently,” he said.

Beyond Uganda, Africa continues to record some of the world’s longest-serving leaders, reinforcing concerns about generational turnover in governance.

In several of these systems, electoral competition remains limited and constitutional reforms have often coincided with extended presidential tenure.

Foreign affairs commentator Collins Nweke argues that the central issue is not age itself, but accountability and leadership renewal, noting that political systems weaken when succession is delayed or constrained.

Other analysts emphasise the importance of civic awareness and institutional safeguards, particularly term limits, which they describe as critical tools for preventing excessive concentration of power.

A diplomat, also speaking on condition of anonymity, called for stronger electoral transparency mechanisms, including credible voter registration systems, independent election management bodies, and robust domestic and international observation frameworks.

An academic, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said stronger civic awareness could help societies resist unconstitutional tenure elongation.

“When citizens are politically informed and organised, sit-tight ambitions lose legitimacy and public support,” he said.

Museveni’s seventh term therefore reflects a wider continental tension between political continuity and democratic renewal, raising questions about whether African democracies are evolving toward stronger institutions or settling into prolonged cycles of personalised rule.

For supporters, his leadership represents stability in a volatile region.

For critics, it signals the entrenchment of gerontocracy and weakening democratic competition.

Between these positions lies a structural challenge that extends beyond Uganda; whether institutions in African states are strong enough to outlast individuals and guarantee orderly political succession. (NAN)

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OPINION

Driving Africa’s Fair Energy Transition through Technology and Innovation

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By Bart Nnaji

Africa’s energy journey is often portrayed as a stark choice between climate responsibility and development. In reality, the continent faces a more nuanced challenge: finding a fair, gradual energy transition that matches its unique needs and ambitions.

Technology and innovation can drive this change, helping secure affordable and sustainable energy for all.

In the coming decades, Africa’s population is expected to soar to nearly 2.5 billion. Cities will grow. Industries will expand. Digital connections will multiply. The demand for energy will increase significantly.

Right now, expecting Africa to abandon fossil fuels overnight is neither realistic nor fair. In the near future, fossil fuels remain crucial for base power that is reliable, and affordable. In particular, natural gas is key transition fuel that will remain the base power solution for the next decade. Africa must not embrace renewable energy primarily when they have abundance of fossil fuel for their industrialization as other emerging and emerged nations have done. A just energy transition recognises these realities and seeks ways to build cleaner, more resilient systems over time.

Technology as the Enabler of Africa’s Energy Future

Exciting new technologies are already reshaping Africa’s energy landscape:

Decentralised solutions, like mini-grids, off-grid solar, and batteries, bring electricity to places traditional grids can’t reach. By 2030, these distributed renewables could provide most new connections in underserved communities.

Smart grids and AI-driven management can reduce waste. They help utilities serve people better.

Modern batteries ensure that solar and wind energy can be delivered steadily, even when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing.

Decentralised approaches are essential to Africa’s path toward universal energy access. While technology is not a fix-all solution, it is a crucial enabler of efficiency, resilience, and affordability, shaping Africa’s energy future.

African entrepreneurs are leading much of this change. They’re developing solutions that meet local needs, such as pay-as-you-go solar, community-run mini-grids, and mobile payment platforms. These innovations don’t just bring power; they create jobs, build skills, and reap economic benefits for the continent.

But innovation alone isn’t enough. Investment is critical. According to the International Energy Agency, Africa needs about $90 billion annually to achieve a successful energy transition, but current funding falls short. Governments can help by setting clear, supportive policies that attract investment and make projects more affordable. Organisations like the African Development Bank say grid investment must rise dramatically, and clean energy spending should double by 2030 to keep up with growing demand.

From Energy Access to Economic and Human Impact

Reliable energy is more than just a technical necessity – it’s what fuels industrial growth. Picture the continent’s factories buzzing with activity, transport networks connecting people and goods, and data centres powering a vibrant digital economy.

Expanding decentralised solutions brings light to places that have been left in the dark for too long. It’s about giving children a place to study at night, helping clinics store vaccines safely, and empowering entrepreneurs to launch new businesses.

Of course, none of this works in isolation. Supportive policies, strong regulations, and partnerships between governments and private companies are essential. When African countries harmonise their rules and work together, they can create bigger markets. This draws even more investment and innovation.

Ultimately, Africa’s energy transition must be shaped by Africans themselves. The path forward is about collaboration, pragmatism, and investing in homegrown solutions. Africa’s mobile phone revolution showed the world how quickly the continent can leapfrog old systems. The same can happen with energy; by embracing flexible, tech-driven models that serve today’s and tomorrow’s needs.

Now is the time to come together to act boldly and invest in Africa’s energy future. By uniting efforts, we can turn potential into progress, ensuring resilient, inclusive, and sustainable energy for generations to come. Let’s power Africa’s future, together.

Prof. Bart O. Nnaji FAS, FA Eng. CON, NNOM – Founder/Chairman, Geometric Power Limited and former Nigerian Minister of Power

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