Business Analysis
Nigeria’s Economy: The Path to Prosperity
By Kingsley Moghalu
It is a given that the incoming Federal Government of Nigeria will have to decisively tackle the macroeconomic challenges of a fraudulent and wasteful petrol subsidy regime; our debt, revenue and resource allocation crisis; and a broken foreign exchange regime, in order to get our economy back on track.
Nigeria cannot become a wealthy, prosperous country without first becoming a nation with a shared sense of national identity and unity of purpose, even in our diversity. Development begins in the mind. When people agree on a common goal of prosperity, based on an inclusive sense of national identity, shared values, justice and equality before the law, they can collectively put their shoulders to the wheel and push in unison. This characteristic, sometimes described as “social cohesion”, can have a transformative impact in terms of productivity. Because our country has been fractured along ethnic and religious lines of primordial identity, our politics reflects this fractionalisation. Electoral outcomes create “Governments of Nigeria” that frequently (mis)manage the economy, not for purposes of real wealth creation, but for that of advancing group vested interests of class, ethnicity, religion, or partisan political affiliation. In essence, then, what passes for economic management has become mostly a “rewards” system for chosen cronies of multiple hues. A national economy managed in this manner, rather than on the basis of technocratic competence, cannot create the wealth of nations.
Moreover, the matter of constitutional reform back to real federalism has foundational implications for Nigeria’s chances at economic prosperity. The recent constitutional amendments signed into law by President Muhammadu Buhari, including giving states powers over electricity generation, transmission and distribution, as well as to establish railway services, are a pointer to the potentially positive impact on our economy of an even more foundational constitutional restructuring of Nigeria. Such restructuring will also address questions of nationhood, equity and justice, creating a more durable foundation for development.
Political will to embark on necessary reforms to reverse state capture by vested interests requires the self-confidence and courage of elected political leaders. While it might be assumed that such political will can only come from a political leadership that emerges from “outside the system”, there is nothing that decrees — especially given the existential crisis of the Nigerian state and its economy — that it cannot exist, even if imperfectly, in a leadership that has emerged from “within”. Whatever its provenance, such political will depends largely on the decisiveness of an elected political leader, and is essential for our national economic progress because of the challenge of state capture.
Perhaps the most tricky problem of economic policymaking in Nigeria is that of knowledge gaps. I use the word “tricky” advisedly, and based on both insight and experience. Most Nigerian political leaders have university degrees and Nigeria has thousands of brilliant economists, yet we have a suboptimal economy. This reality is due not just to the two big issues of a weak sense of nationhood and absent political will, but just as important, a frequent lack of fundamental understanding of economics and its relationship with the other social sciences, law, and technology to create a productive economy.
The first problem is that, even within the economics profession itself, there often is an emphasis on the technical and the mathematical, with little appreciation and application of a sound knowledge of economic philosophy and political economy as the necessary foundations of economic development and wealth creation. All successful economies are based on some sort of philosophical foundation or the other. The internal dynamics – and sometimes contradictions – of these philosophical leanings matter for economic policy, as do their differences. This, then, requires a certain amount of intellectual interrogation, a level of comfort with ideas and concepts, and their application to everyday economic policy challenges. Alas, this is only too rarely a habit of economic policymaking in Nigeria.
Let me illustrate this: Most Nigerians today believe in profit-oriented, market activity. We are dynamic and entrepreneurial. We are therefore mainly capitalist in persuasion, at least to varying degrees. But, you see, capitalism is a philosophy. If we fail to understand this, as we often do, we will copy capitalist societies who understand this, and then fail to create wealth for 200 million Nigerians the way these societies have done for their citizens. The wealth of a few and the poverty of many are the natural outcomes, because we are “doing” but without first thinking deeply. According to the Nigerian Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC), 99.4% of Nigerians who are banked have less than N500,000 in their bank accounts. From this we can see why, for the average Nigerian, an “alat” hitting his or her “acant” is a truly big deal.
In order for capitalism to create wealth, we must come to a clear, pragmatic understanding of the right balance between the state and the marketplace (this leans too much in favour of the state in Nigeria, thus distorting the economy), the essential bedrocks of successful capitalist economies (strong property rights as opposed to state ownership of land, an important factor of economic production, under the Land Use Act, an innovation-driven economy, and capital), as well as the four kinds of capitalism – entrepreneurial capitalism that is dominant in the United States, welfare capitalism that is practised in Europe, crony capitalism that is dominant in Russia and Nigeria, and “state capitalism”, an unlikely but functioning oxymoron that has been invented and practised in China over the past 40 years.
Another example: We are fixated on economic GDP growth. “The Nigerian Economy Will Grow by X % in 2023” is a frequent headline of economic news. But we have taken our eyes off the ball: Such growth must be inclusive. To be precise, this means it must be broad-based across sectors and anchored on a steadily increasing productivity of labour.
This misunderstanding takes us away from a more important focus on overcoming poverty with skilled human capital, jobs, and increasing GDP per capita. Nigeria’s GDP per capita is $2,000, and its average between 1960 and 2021 was $1,867.70. Comparisons with Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Brazil and South Korea will make you weep, and I don’t want you to cry. Our economic policymaking, going forward, must understand the distinctions and the three stage-linkages between human development (literacy, water, health, skilled human capital), economic growth, and structural economic transformation. Economic growth without real human development is not just unsustainable. It will not be able to yield structural economic transformation. The latter means a shift from subsistence agriculture, commodities and mineral resources as a share of the GDP, to value-added manufacturing and export as an increasing part of GDP. This cannot happen without “productive knowledge” (PK), or skills. This means that educational system reform must become the number one priority for our medium/long term economic progress.
We were once tipsy with the “Africa Rising” myth, when the continent had not yet become an industrially productive economic powerhouse, with a significant share of world trade (only 3% today) and foreign direct investment (5%). Ten years ago, I argued in my book Emerging Africa: How the Global Economy’s ‘Last Frontier’ Can Prosper and Matter against the conventional wisdom that Africa was rising. The continent, I asserted, was simply emerging from the shadows, and setting out an agenda for its possible rise. “Rising” was more accurately applicable to Rising Asia – China, India, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, etc. Looking back now, I take no pleasure in having been proved right.
I would recommend two (in my view) critical executive education programmes for political leaders and economic managers in Nigeria (federal and state levels). The first is “Leading Economic Growth”, taught at Harvard Kennedy School by Professor Ricardo Haussmann and his colleagues. This course provides important knowledge and perspective on how to actually diversify an economy and achieve “economic complexity”. The second is “Macroeconomic and Financial Sector Management”, taught at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Institute.
And then we have the matter of institutions. Without strong, independent institutions to uphold accountability and the Rule of Law, and to regulate the economy to create a level playing field for market players, a national economy cannot prosper. Institutions need to be independent, precisely so that they can work for the citizens and the economy broadly, and not for cabals or for partisan political interests. Where the latter is the case, the economy suffers because it weakens investor confidence, reduces both foreign and local investment, and promotes capital flight. But the truth is that institutions also cannot be strong, especially in an economy such as ours, without strong, competent individuals leading them.
These are the big issues as I see them, along with the immediate crisis of the petrol subsidy, irresponsible and untransparent borrowing, and a dysfunctional forex regime, all of which need to end as soon as possible, in order to stop the economic bleeding of our country. Alongside these reforms, however, we must also engage the heavy lifts – the even bigger work that must also proceed apace – of national consensus building and constitutional reform for greater national stability and prosperity. Nigeria can be the next China – on its own terms. The foundation can be laid over the next four years.
Kingsley Moghalu, a former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, is the CEO of Sogato Strategies LLC, a global investment advisory firm, and President of the Institute for Governance and Economic Transformation (IGET), a public policy think tank.
By Joel Oladele, Abuja
The Nigeria Customs Service (NSC) has generated an impressive N1,751,502,252,298.05 in revenue during the first quarter of 2025.
The Comptroller-General (CG) of the Service, Bashir Adeniyi, disclosed this yesterday, during a press briefing in Abuja.
According to Adeniyi, the achievement not only surpasses the quarterly target but also marks a substantial increase compared to the same period last year, reflecting the effectiveness of recent reforms and the dedication of customs officers across the nation.
“This first quarter of 2025 has seen our officers working tirelessly at borders and ports across the nation.
I’m proud to report we’ve made real progress on multiple fronts—from increasing revenue collections to intercepting dangerous shipments,” Adeniyi stated.He attributed this success to the reforms initiated under President Bola Tinubu’s administration and the guidance of the Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Olawale Edun.
The CG noted that the revenue collection for Q1 2025 exceeded the quarterly benchmark of N1,645,000,000,000.00 by N106.5 billion, achieving 106.47% of the target. This performance represents a remarkable 29.96% increase compared to the N1,347,705,251,658.31 collected in Q1 2024.
Adeniyi highlighted the month-by-month growth, noting that January’s collection of N647,880,245,243.67 surpassed its target by 18.12%, while February and March also showed positive trends.
“I’m pleased to report the Service’s revenue collection for Q1 2025 totaled N1,751,502,252,298.05.
“Against our annual target of N6,580,000,000,000.00, the first quarter’s proportional benchmark stood at N1,645,000,000,000.00. I’m proud to announce we’ve exceeded this target by N106.5 billion, achieving 106.47% of our quarterly projection. This outstanding performance represents a substantial 29.96% increase compared to the same period in 2024, where we collected N1,347,705,251,658.31.
“Our month-by-month analysis reveals even more encouraging details of this growth trajectory,” Adeniyi said.
In addition to revenue collection, Adeniyi said the NCS maintained robust anti-smuggling operations, recording 298 seizures with a total Duty Paid Value (DPV) of ₦7,698,557,347.67.
He stated that rice was the most seized commodity, with 135,474 bags intercepted, followed by petroleum products and narcotics.
“From rice to wildlife, these seizures show our targeted approach,” Adeniyi remarked, noting the NCS’s commitment to combating smuggling and protecting national revenue.
Adeniyi also highlighted key initiatives, including the expansion of the B’Odogwu customs clearance platform and the launch of the Authorized Economic Operators Programme, which aims to streamline processes for compliant businesses. The NCS’s Corporate Social Responsibility Programme, “Customs Cares,” was also launched, focusing on education, health, and environmental sustainability.
Despite these achievements, the CG noted that the NCS faced challenges, including exchange rate volatility and non-compliance issues. Adeniyi acknowledged the need for ongoing adaptation and collaboration with stakeholders to address these challenges effectively.
Looking ahead, the NCS aims to continue its modernization efforts and enhance service delivery, ensuring that it remains a critical institution in Nigeria’s economic and security landscape.
“Results speak louder than plans; faster clearances through B’Odogwu, trusted traders in the AEO program, and measurable food price relief from our exemptions. We’ll keep scaling what works,” he concluded.
 |
By Tony Obiechina Abuja
The Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority (NSIA) yesterday disclosed that its net assets grew from N156bn in 2013 to N4.35 trillion in 2024.
Similarly, the Authority has remained profitable for 12 consecutive years, leading to cumulative retained earnings of N3.
74 trillion in 2024.Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of NSIA, Aminu Umar- Sadiq made these disclosures at a media engagement in Abuja, highlighting its audited financial results for the 2024 fiscal year.
According to him, the results underscored the resilience of the authority’s investment strategy and the strength of its earnings, driven by a well-diversified revenue base and robust risk management practices, despite a challenging global macroeconomic and geopolitical environment.
Total operating profits, excluding share of profits from associates and Joint Venture (JV) entities, increased from N1.17 trillion in 2023 to N1.86 trillion in 2024, driven by the strong performance of
NSIA’s diversified investment portfolio, infrastructure assets, gains from foreign exchange movements, and derivative valuations.
In addition, Total Comprehensive Income (TCI), inclusive of share of profits from associates and JV entities, reached N1.89 trillion in 2024, reflecting a 59 per cent increase from N1.18 trillion in 2023.
Core TCI (excluding foreign exchange and derivative valuation gains) rose by 148 per cent to N407.9 billion in 2024 compared to N164.7 billion in 2023, supported by robust returns on financial assets measured at fair value through profit and loss, including collateralised securities, private equity, hedge funds, and Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).
Umar-Sadiq said the authority’s outstanding financial performance in 2024 reflected the “strength of our strategic vision, disciplined execution and unwavering commitment to sustainable socio-economic advancement.”
He said, “By leveraging innovation, strategic partnerships and sound risk management, we have not only delivered strong returns but also created value for our stakeholders
“As we move forward, we remain focused on driving economic transformation, expanding opportunities, scaling transformative impact and ensuring long-term prosperity for current and future generations of Nigerians.”
The CEO reaffirmed the authority’s commitment to managing the country’s SWF, and delivering the mandates enshrined in the NSIA Act.
He said NSIA remained poised to continually create long-term value for its stakeholders by delivering excellent risk-adjusted financial results, developing a healthy and well-diversified portfolio of assets and large-scale infrastructure projects, and enhancing the desired social outcomes.
He noted that NSIA was committed to its mandate of prudent management and investment of Nigeria’s sovereign wealth.
“In adherence to its Establishment Act, NSIA prioritises transparency, disclosure, and effective communication with all stakeholders and counterparties,” he said.
He pointed out that in the year under review, a new board, led by Olusegun Ogunsanya as Chairman, was appointed by President Bola Tinubu, in accordance with the provisions of the NSIA Act.
The new board will provide strategic direction and oversight, in addition to playing a pivotal role in critical decision making.
He remarked that under the guidance of the Board, the Authority will retain focus on its primary mandate of creating shared value for all stakeholders based on its continued adoption of corporate governance practices.
“NSIA prides itself an investment institution of the federation established to manage funds in excess of budgeted oil revenues and its mission is to play a pivotal role in driving sustained economic development for the benefit of all Nigerians through building a savings base for the Nigerian people, enhancing the development of the county’s infrastructure, and providing stabilisation support in times of economic misadventure,” he added.
By Cletus Akwaya
Call it Dangote Republic and you would not be wrong, for that is what it means in real sense.
The ultra-modern Dangote Refinery and Petrochemical complex located at the Lekki Free Trade Zone in Lagos is the World’s Engineering wonder.
A guided tour for top Media executives in the country by the President, Dangote Industries Group himself, Alhaji Aliko Dangote on July 14, provided a rare privilege and opportunity to appreciate the project that has emerged as the World’s largest single train petroleum refinery.
Dangote, the Kano-born business mogul and Africa’s richest man, whose vision for the industrial transformation of Nigeria led to the initiation of this project is certainly a fulfilled person, having accomplished such a gargantuan task in the spelt of just about 10 years.
The refinery, which is built and equipped with the latest technology in the industry. It is a behemoth sitting on a huge land space of 2, 735 hectares, approximately seven times, the size of Victoria Island, the octane section of Lagos, which has become the abode for the very rich in the nation’s commercial nerve – centre over the decades.
The land was provided by the Lagos state government after the payment of $100million dollars by the Dangote Group as cost of the land.
The edifice didn’t come easy as the engineers had to reclaim 65million cubic metres of sand through dredging of the Atlantic coastline to pave way for the construction of the refinery and its accompanying facilities especially the Jetty.
The Dangote refinery is not a stand-alone project as it has a coterie of associated industries and infrastructure making it a self-reliant complex.
For instance, the company has a fully developed port (jetty)for maritime operations for both in-take of crude and discharge of refined products. This perfectly compliments the huge pipeline network that lands into the Atlantic for intake of crude and loading of refined products to ships. Its Jetty, which stretches 9KM into the international waters in the Atlantic Ocean and 12.5 KM from the refinery is perhaps one of the most modern in the world built with sand piles that shield the final landing points from the violent oceanic waves, thus providing for safety and stability of ships, barges and oil tankers.
The complex is accessed by 200KM network of concrete under-lay and well asphalted road network to ease vehicular traffic. The refinery has its dedicated steam and power generation system with standby units to adequately support operations of the various plants in the complex.
It has successfully completed a 435 MW power generating plant for its operations. The power generated from this plant surpasses the entire distribution capacity of Ibadan Electricity Distribution company, which supplies electricity to five states of the Federation including Oyo, Osun, Ondo, Ekiti and Kwara.
The Dangote refinery with a capacity of 650,000 bpd of crude oil is designed to handle the crude from many of the African countries, the Middle East and the US light crude. Its petrochemical plant is designed to produce 77 different high-performance grades of polypropylene, which is the major raw material for numerous industries and other refineries. With a huge refining capacity, Alhaji Dangote said the products from the refinery company would easily meet 100 per cent the needs of Nigeria’s demand for gasoline, diesel, Petrol and Aviation Jet with 56 per cent surplus for export, from which the company projects to earn a princely $25billion per annum from 2025.
The company has facility to load 2,900 trucks with its various products in a day by land and millions of litres of products through the waters depending on where the orders come from. The $25million projected revenue in 2025 could translate to a huge relieve for the nation in dire need of foreign earnings to shore-up the value of the nation’s currency.
The associated industry, the Dangote Fertilizers Limited also situated in the complex utilises the raw materials from petrochemicals to produce different varieties of fertilzers especially Urea, NPK and Amonia grades of fertilizers. Apart from the local market, Dangote is already exporting its fertilizers to other countries including Mexico, a testament to its high quality that meets world standards.
This feta, the President of Dangote industries explained was possible because of the high quality, the company has opted to pursue. In between the refinery and the fertilizers complex lies a 50,000 housing estate, which provided accommodation for the construction workers at the time of construction especially during the COVID-19 lockdowns of 2020, when workers remained encamped on the project site to continue with the work.
What stands out the Dangote Refinery is perhaps not in its sheer size and capacity but in the fact that it is perhaps the only of such projects whose Engineering, Procurement and construction(EPC) was done directly by the company without engaging the world renowned refinery constriction companies like Technip Bechtel (USA)Technip (France)Aker Solutions (Norway)Chiyoda Corporation (Japan)SNC-Lavalin Group (Canada)J. Ray McDermott (USA)JGC Corporation (Japan)Hyundai Heavy Industries (South Korea)Foster Wheeler (USA) and Daelim Industrial Company (South Korea)
“The design of the refinery was handled by dozens of Engineers and technical experts assembled in India and Houston, Texas, USA to execute engineering designs of the refinery,” said Edwin Kumar, the Executive vice President, Oil and Gas for the Dangote Group who midwifed the birth of the refinery complex.
“We didn’t give out contracts to anybody, we bought every single bolt and equipment ourselves and had it shipped into the country,” Dangote explained to his guests.
Part of the equipment imported into the country was the procurement of over 3,000 cranes to handle the evacuation of huge consignments of machinery from the wharf and for subsequent installation at the construction site. The cranes have become an unusual assemblage of such equipment to be found in one place on the African continent.
If there was any doubt that Alhaji Aliko Dangote is Africa’s richest man, the successful completion of the refinery and petrochemical complex at the cost of about $20billion has further confirmed his status as Africa’s leading businessman and entrepreneur.
However, Dangote does not really accept that he is the richest man on the continent,
“When you are rich, you accumulate cash, but when you wealthy, you create wealth” he told the top Media executives on tour of the huge project, explaining that he would rather prefer to be referred to as a “Wealthy man.”
And consistent with his business philosophy, Dangote hinted of plans to list the refinery on the Nation’s stock exchange by the first quarter of 2025. His vision is to avail the public of 20 per cent of the shares so as to ensure participation by Nigerians and even international portfolio investors.
The refinery company and the entire of Dangote Group at the moment provides direct employment to about 20,000 Nigerians and much indirect jobs to Nigerians, making it the highest employer of labour outside the government.
Most interestingly, the highly technical operations of Dangote refinery is operated by over 70 per cent of local manpower who work in the refinery control, centre, the numerous production and quality control laboratories among others. Some of the staff who explained their tasks to the visiting media executives said they were graduates of Engineering and allied disciplines recruited mostly from Nigerian universities and trained in various institutions abroad for periods ranging from sixth months – one year to master refinery operations. Through this strategy, Dangote has ensured transfer of technology to thousands of Nigerian youths.
“We don’t know where they come from as long as they are Nigerians and if they decide to leave and join international oil companies for better job opportunities, we have no problem with that,” Dangote responded to a question on the strategy to retain the technical manpower for stability of the refinery’s operations.
The Dangote Refinery is a Republic of some kind, at least an economic or industrial Republic.
But the man who presides over this ‘industrial empire’, Alhaji Dangote says his only ambition is to boot the nation’s economy and ensure netter life for Nigerians.
“When you import any product into Nigeria, you are importing poverty and exporting our jobs to those countries from where you are importing” Dangote said adding “this is why I want economic nationalism in Nigeria.”
Dangote’s vision even goes beyond Nigeria as he has cement factories and other business concerns in about 13 African countries including Ghana, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda, etc. This signifies his continent-wide dream to transform Africa’s economies.
There has been attempts by some international oil companies to frustrate the successful take-off of the refinery, through over pricing and in some instances outright denial of crude supplies for processing. This made Dangote to commence importation of crude from the US. However, the cheering news that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) has finally approved a supply arrangement has raised hopes that full operations will commence and that the long-awaited Dangote oil products will reach consumers around the country from August.
At last, the Dangote Group may have achieved its objective to serve as the elixir to Nigeria’s industrialisation effort. This is perhaps the greatest legacy of Africa’s richest man to his country of birth.
Bayelsa PDP Approves Salary Increment for Party Officials
ShareFrom Mike Tayese, Yenagoa In a major shift of position, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in Bayelsa State has approved...
Benue Killings: Group Petitions IGP, Demands Urgent Federal Intervention
ShareClaims 300 Lives Lost in Recent Coordinated Attacks across Five LGAs Agatu Council Boss Confirms Killing of District Head by...
Miss Valdeen N. Pierre Honored with Humanitarian Award at the 2025 National Humanitarian Summit
ShareIn a remarkable celebration of humanitarian service and strategic collaboration, Miss Valdeen Pierre , Country Director – United State ;...
32-year-old in Court For Allegedly Robbing Man of N4.5m iPhones
ShareThe police in Lagos on Friday arraigned a 32-year-old businessman, Wilfred Ochie, who allegedly robbed a man of two iPhones...
Methodist Archbishop, Igwe Condemns Spate of Insecurity, Killings in Nigeria
ShareBy, Godwin Okeh Abakaliki The Archdiocesan Bishop of Methodist Church, Archdiocese of Ebonyi, His Grace Most Rev. Chikwendu Ogan Igwe...
Police Nab 78 Suspects, Recover Weapons, Drugs in Kano
ShareThe Kano State Police Command on Friday, said it arrested 78 suspects and recovered a substantial quantity of weapons, illicit...
EEDC Set To Disconnect Indebted Customers
ShareThe Enugu Electricity Distribution Company (EEDC) has called on its customers to pay their energy bill or risk disconnection from...
Sanwo-Olu Inaugurates Custodian Accident and Emergency Centre, Epe
Share Gov. Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos on Friday inaugurated the state’s newly-constructed Custodian Accident and Emergency Centre at Epe, describing...
3 Men in Court Over Alleged ₦25m Maize Farm Theft, Damage
ShareThree men were arraigned before an Iyaganku Chief Magistrates’ Court in Ibadan on Friday over alleged theft and destruction of...
China Aims For Stable Vatican Relations Under Pope Leo XIV
Share China on Friday congratulated the newly elected Pope Leo XIV and expressed hope for a “steady” improvement in relations with...
Arabic
Chinese (Simplified)
Dutch
English
French
German
Italian
Portuguese
Russian
Spanish