By David Torough, Abuja

Fuel prices across Nigeria have surged close to the N1,000 per litre mark, triggering concern among motorists and businesses, as regulators attribute the development to market forces while energy experts warn that global tensions could push prices even higher.

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) said fluctuations in the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), popularly known as petrol, were the result of supply and demand dynamics under the country’s fully deregulated downstream petroleum sector.

Speaking in Abuja, the authority’s spokesperson, George Ene-Ita, said variations in fuel prices across retail outlets were not due to regulatory interference but reflected prevailing market conditions.

According to him, Nigeria has been operating a fully deregulated petroleum products market since the inception of the current administration, allowing market forces to determine pricing.

“Pump price vagaries are purely as a result of market dynamics,” Ene-Ita said, adding that deregulation was designed to encourage competition, efficiency and increased investment in the downstream oil and gas sector.

Across several cities, petrol prices have risen sharply in recent days. While the product previously sold between about N875 and N880 per litre in some locations, independent marketers now sell it for between N960 and N1,000 per litre or more. Stations operated by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) have also adjusted prices to around N960 per litre in many outlets.

In Lagos, checks showed prices ranging between about N1,005 and N1,040 per litre at different filling stations, with motorists scrambling to secure supplies amid fears of further increases.

Energy experts say the rising prices are largely driven by developments in the global oil market, particularly the recent surge in crude oil prices linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, said the cost of crude oil remains the most critical factor influencing petrol prices.

He explained that global crude prices had jumped from about 65 dollars per barrel to nearly 92 dollars within a short period, raising the cost of refined petroleum products worldwide.

Yusuf noted that even domestic refineries were affected because crude oil used for refining was typically priced at international market benchmarks.

He added that although the Dangote Refinery is located in Nigeria, a significant portion of the crude it processes is sourced externally, making it vulnerable to global price volatility.

“About 70 per cent or more of the crude used by the refinery is sourced externally,” he said.

Despite the rising prices, Yusuf said the refinery had improved Nigeria’s energy security by stabilising supply and reducing the likelihood of the fuel shortages and long queues that once plagued the country.

“If we did not have the Dangote Refinery, the situation would likely have been much worse. Petrol could be selling for about N1,500 per litre or more,” he said.

Similarly, energy policy expert Prof. Ken Ife said Africa’s heavy dependence on imported petroleum products continued to expose the continent to global price shocks.

He said Nigeria currently had about 445,000 barrels of crude allocated for domestic refining but stressed that local refineries still required more consistent crude supply to operate at optimal capacity.

The National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), Dr Billy Gillis-Harry, also warned that escalating tensions around the strategic Strait of Hormuz were pushing global petroleum prices upward.

He explained that the maritime corridor accounts for nearly 30 per cent of global crude shipments and that persistent attacks and hostilities in the region pose significant risks to global energy supply chains.

According to him, before the crisis escalated petrol sold at about N774 per litre, but prices have since climbed to between N950 and N970 per litre, while diesel has risen sharply from about N950 to nearly N1,400 per litre.

He warned that if geopolitical tensions persist, petrol prices could approach N1,500 per litre while diesel may exceed N2,000 per litre, with severe implications for transportation, manufacturing and inflation.

Economic analyst Dr Chijioke Ekechukwu urged the Federal Government to mitigate the impact by supplying crude oil to local refineries at subsidised rates.

He said such a policy would allow refineries to produce and sell petroleum products locally at relatively stable prices while the country continues exporting crude oil at international market rates.

Ekechukwu also called for stricter enforcement of domestic crude supply obligations and tighter border controls to curb the smuggling of refined petroleum products to neighbouring countries.

According to him, strengthening local refining and safeguarding domestic supply will help shield Nigerian consumers from sudden price shocks in the global energy market.

Experts agree that until global oil prices stabilise and geopolitical tensions ease, Nigerians may have to contend with continued volatility in fuel prices.

Escalating conflict in the Middle East poses a direct threat to around 14 million barrels per day, or 32% of global seaborne crude oil, that flows through the Strait of Hormuz. For oil products, any Strait of Hormuz disruption would impact 16% of the global products trade, with severe consequences for LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) and naphtha.

Any disruption to tanker transits through the strait would cripple the global trade of oil and oil products.

Strait of Hormuz transit volumes are about 1.5 million barrels per day (b/d) for LPG and 1.2 million b/d for naphtha. Naphtha flows to East Asian crackers are particularly exposed, with more than 37% of those global seaborne volumes transiting the strait.

LPG markets are already tight following last week’s outage at Saudi Aramco’s Juaymah facility. This poses a specific threat to India, which relies heavily on Middle Eastern LPG for residential use. Replacing these short-haul cargoes with longer voyages of LPG from the US would present a severe logistical challenge for countries in Asia.

For middle distillates, diesel flows through the strait are roughly double those of jet fuel. But jet is more vulnerable in terms of overall market share. European jet kerosene buyers are particularly sensitive, as more than half of the continent’s jet fuel imports sail through this strait. In the event of sustained disruption, Europe would need to pivot to alternative suppliers such as India, South Korea, the US, and even Nigeria’s new Dangote refinery.

A similar dynamic also applies to diesel due to Europe’s sanctions on oil products from Russia. As Europe pulls more non-Russian barrels of diesel from the global pool, African buyers may increasingly turn to Russian diesel to fill their gap. Russian refinery throughput fell to 5.15 million barrels per day (b/d) during the first 18 days of February 2026 due to continued Ukrainian drone attacks. Russian refined product exports declined by 270,000b/d over the same period, led by lower fuel oil and diesel exports.

The Women in Energy Network (WIEN) has called for urgent structural reforms in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry to remove systemic barriers limiting women’s participation across workforce, leadership, and enterprise ownership.

According to the Network, women account for 18.

2 per cent of Nigeria’s energy workforce and 25. 6 per cent of leadership roles and that despite over 35,000 companies active on the JQS platform, less than 2 per cent are women-owned.

They also informed that women represent only 17 per cent of current STEM enrolments, signaling a constrained future technical pipeline.

The Network noted that a US$40 million Women in Energy Fund, supported through the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB) and the Nigerian Export-Import Bank (NEXIM), remains underutilized not due to lack of capable women-owned businesses, but due to limited access to bankable contract opportunities.

The WIEN explained that the current procurement structure effectively requires companies to demonstrate asset ownership and technical capacity before accessing contracts — creating a circular constraint for emerging firms:

“This is not a social issue. It is a structural and strategic issue,” the Network emphasized. “Nigeria cannot achieve its energy security objectives while half of its population remains underutilized.”

WIEN also highlighted the need for stronger representation of women at board level, noting that governance diversity improves capital allocation, risk oversight, and long-term sector resilience.

In addition, the Network stressed the urgency of strengthening the STEM pipeline for young women through targeted internships, mentorship programs, and industry-backed exposure initiatives.

WIEN reaffirmed that Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) in Nigeria’s energy sector is not tokenism or entitlement, but a strategic imperative tied to capital formation, competitiveness, and long-term energy security.