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OPINION

PDP and Consequences of Sailing against the Wind in 2023

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By Majeed Dahiru

At a time when elements of the conservative northern political establishment in the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) appear to have resolved to shift presidential power to the South of Nigeria in 2023, the liberal northern politicians in the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) seem determined to retain power in the northern region beyond 2023.

Led by President Muhammadu Buhari, the conservative northern establishment, which has been in firm control of the politics of Nigeria’s largest democratic demography since 2015, when the APC came to power, may have come to the realisation that it cannot hold on to power after eight years without severe consequences for the unity and continuous existence of Nigeria.

From all indications, as seen in the near absence of northern presidential aspirants on its platform, the President Buhari-led APC has clearly settled for a Nigerian president of southern origin, beginning from 2023 when Nigerians will go to the polls to vote for a new president.

On the other hand, the PDP, with its strongest political support base in the South and minority areas of the North (the Middle Belt), and which is expected to be the most willing to pick its presidential candidate from the region, is looking towards the North for its presidential redemption.

Clearly unprepared for a Southern presidency, the PDP is hoping to opportunistically inherit the massive votes of Northern Nigeria by fielding a candidate from the region at a time the APC is looking South. In the thinking of many a PDP stalwart from the South, the interest of the party should be to win the next presidential election by any means possible and not be concerned by the morality of zoning for the purpose of equity, justice and unity.

Having been defeated twice in the 2015 and 2019 presidential elections by the APC, which was heavily enamoured on both occasions by the massive votes of Nigeria’s largest voting bloc in the Muslim North, some PDP stalwarts from the South, like members of a defeated army whose officers and men are suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder, have surrendered to the political supremacy of Northern Nigeria.

In their consideration, an average Muslim Northerner is incapable of making rational political decisions without being influenced by ethno-geographic and religious sentiments, which makes it impossible for a Southerner to defeat a Northerner in any presidential contest in Buhari’s Nigeria. And for the PDP to win back the presidency of Nigeria in 2023, the candidate has to be Northern and Muslim. Even when there are clear indications that the political establishment in the region has reached a decision to cede power to the South in 2023, some PDP pundits have expressed doubt about the sincerity of this purpose, given the fact that Northern Nigeria holds the knife (power) and the yam (patronage) and can decide to keep both.

Whilst it is true that the North has the knife and yam in Buhari’s Nigeria, yet much as it may want to keep both, it is in the long-term interest of the region to relinquish power to the South as a last ditch effort to salvage whatever is left of Nigeria’s national unity and cooperate coexistence. Whereas the North wants power, still its needs the unity of the Nigerian state for its regional self-enlightened interest.

Relying on this impression of the political invincibility of the Muslim North, a legion of presidential aspirants from the region have been straddling the lengths and breadths of Nigeria and making a case for “winnability” over the morality of zoning, as the PDP prepares for the 2023 presidential election. However, the widespread clamour for power shift to the South by leaders of the region across ethnic, religious and partisan divides, as contained in the Asaba Declaration of the 17 Southern governors in May 2021; a position that has been adopted by the leadership of ethnic nationalities in the region and the seeming willingness of the APC to field a Southern candidate in the 2023 presidential election, has made the PDP find itself in a state of flux, amidst a raging controversy over zoning.

Whilst it is true that the North has the knife and yam in Buhari’s Nigeria, yet much as it may want to keep both, it is in the long-term interest of the region to relinquish power to the South as a last ditch effort to salvage whatever is left of Nigeria’s national unity and cooperate coexistence. Whereas the North wants power, still its needs the unity of the Nigerian state for its regional self-enlightened interest. Having failed to improve the socio-economic condition of the region and leaving it, by the end of his eight year rule, a terrorised, war thorn, poverty stricken dungeon of insecurity, President Buhari, despite his crass sectionalism, failed to wean Northern Nigeria off revenue dependency from oil minerals and tax revenues from the South.

It is the monthly allocation from crude oil revenues to the 19 states and 419 local governments of the North that is used to fund the elaborate and flamboyant Emirate system in the region. Just as the monthly allocation is also used to sustain the rich lifestyles of the political elite and their Ulama collaborators, whose duty is to put a stamp of religious authority on their divine right to rule over the people. Most importantly, for a region that is ravaged on all sides by terrorist groups, Northern Nigeria may fall to the combined armies of Boko Haram and killer herdsmen in the event of a prolonged disruption of oil production by militant agitators in the oil producing states of the South, resulting in the inability of government to fund security operations.

Aware of this stark reality, in addition to a deeply polarised polity along the North/South and Muslim/Christian divides, the North may have taken a painful decision to cede power to a trusted ally and friend from the South, who has the capacity to heal a fractured Nigeria by not elevating the interest of his region over those of the others. It may have been provoked, abused and maligned but the North is not ready for a divorce from the Southern lady of means. And this is why no Northern presidential candidate of any party is likely to make much impact in the North, as most of the votes in the region will be mobilised for a preferred Southern candidate in the 2023 presidential election.

For a multi-ethnic and religious country like Nigeria, the principles of zoning and rotation of political leadership positions amongst the constituent peoples and regions, which has been in place since its independence in 1960 as a means of ensuring justice, inclusivity, peace and unity, is affirmed in section 14[3] of the 1999 Constitution…

For a multi-ethnic and religious country like Nigeria, the principles of zoning and rotation of political leadership positions amongst the constituent peoples and regions, which has been in place since its independence in 1960 as a means of ensuring justice, inclusivity, peace and unity, is affirmed in section 14[3] of the 1999 Constitution, which states that; “The COMPOSITION of the Government of the Federation or any of its agencies and the conduct of its affairs SHALL be carried out in such a manner as to reflect the federal character of Nigeria and the need to promote national unity, and also to command national loyalty, thereby ensuring that there shall be no predominance of persons from a few States or from a few ethnic or other sectional groups in that Government or in any of its agencies.” It is in furtherance of this constitutional provision that a political convention was evolved to rotate the office of the president between the pre-amalgamation (1914) territories of Northern and Southern Nigeria every after two terms of eight years each.

That the PDP may not sail against the strong wind of the presidency that is blowing South, will be for the party to field a Southern candidate as its candidate in the 2023 presidential election. For the PDP, the 2023 presidential election is not just about “winnability” but actually survival. While the APC is dominant in the North and the PDP’s strongest support base is in the South, the move by the APC to field a Southern candidate in the 2023 presidential election will torpedo the PDP from the region, if the party fields a Northern candidate. And if the PDP goes ahead to sail against the wind in 2023 by fielding a Northern candidate, the ship of the party will capsize, sink into oblivion, as the party will lose in the North and in the South to the APC and go into extinction in post Buhari Nigeria.

• Dahiru, a public affairs analyst, wrote from Abuja and can be reached through dahirumajeed@gmail.com.

FEATURES

Victor Okoli: The Young Nigerian Tech Founder Building Digital Bridge Between Africa and America

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Victor Chukwunonso Okoli, founder of Vnox Technology Inc. (USA) and Vnox Limited (Nigeria), is steadily emerging as one of the most promising new voices in global travel-tech. His mission is clear: bridge the technological gap between Africa and the United States, redefine global travel systems, and empower a new generation of skilled youths through innovation-driven opportunities.

In a statement issued in Onitsha, Anambra State, by Vnox Limited (Nigeria), the company emphasized Okoli’s growing influence as a Nigerian international graduate student contributing meaningfully to U.

S. innovation. His rising travel-technology platform, FlyVnox, currently valued at an estimated $1.
7 million, is positioning itself as a competitive player in the global travel ecosystem.

Okoli explained that Vnox Technology was founded to “train, empower more youths, create global employment opportunities, and drive business growth through our coming B2B portal inside the FlyVnox app.” The platform’s new B2B system aims to support travel agencies, entrepreneurs, and businesses across Africa and the diaspora—giving them access to modern tools, previously inaccessible technologies, and global opportunities.

Several young men and women are already employed under the expanding Vnox group, with more expected to join as the brand grows internationally.

Born and raised in Eastern Nigeria, Okoli’s early life exposed him to the realities and frustrations faced by international travelers and diaspora communities. After moving to the United States for graduate studies, he transformed those experiences into a bold technological vision—building systems that connect continents and create seamless mobility for users worldwide.

At the center of that vision is the FlyVnox app, a modern airline-ticketing platform built with global users in mind. Combining American engineering precision with African mobility realities, FlyVnox offers international flight search, multi-currency support, secure payments, transparent pricing, and a clean, intuitive interface.

Beyond FlyVnox, Okoli has built a growing tech ecosystem under Vnox Technology Inc., which oversees several innovative ventures, including: Vnox TravelTech Solutions LLC (FlyVnox App), VnoxPay (fintech), VnoxShop / Zyrlia (e-commerce)

VnoxID / Nexora (digital identity and smart business card solutions)

Vnox Limited (Nigeria) anchors African operations, media services, and talent development—ensuring the brand remains rooted in its home continent even as it grows globally.

Okoli’s work has broad significance for both Africa and the United States. He represents the powerful impact of immigrant entrepreneurship on global competitiveness—creating new jobs, driving innovation, strengthening U.S.–Africa commercial ties, and contributing to the development of practical, scalable technologies.

The statement concludes that Vnox Technology is a brand to watch. As FlyVnox gains international traction and the Vnox group expands its footprint, Victor Okoli stands as a symbol of a rising generation: African-born, globally minded, and building technologies that connect and serve the world.

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OPINION

Insecurity in Nigeria: Any Remedy?

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By Sunday Ayami

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation and largest economy, in Africa continues to face complex security challenges. These issues threaten national stability, economic growth, and the wellbeing of its citizens. The security landscape is shaped by a combination of terrorism, banditry, separatist agitations, communal conflicts, and organized crime.

The Boko Haram insurgency, active since 2009, remains a significant threat, mainly in Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa states.

Although the group has suffered territorial losses, its splinter faction, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), remains potent. Frequent attacks target both civilians and security personnel.
The humanitarian crisis continues, with millions displaced and persistent food insecurity.

 Armed bandit groups operate extensively in Zamfara, Kaduna, Katsina, Niger, and Sokoto states. These groups engage in mass abductions, cattle rustling, and extortion. Kidnappings for ransom have become commonplace, affecting schoolchildren, commuters, and even local officials. The government has launched multiple military operations, but violence persists.

Competition over land and water resources between sedentary farmers and nomadic herders has intensified, especially in Benue, Plateau, and Nasarawa states. These clashes often escalate along ethnic and religious lines, resulting in hundreds of deaths and displacement.

 Although major militant activities in the Niger Delta have subsided since the 2016/17 resurgence, oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and environmental degradation continue to undermine the economy and fuel local grievances.

The Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) continue to agitate for independence, often clashing with security forces. Their armed wing, the Eastern Security Network (ESN), has been implicated in attacks on government facilities and security checkpoints. The region continues to experience periodic unrest and enforced sit-at-home orders.

Urban centers grapple with armed robbery, cult violence, and organized crimes, while piracy and maritime crime remain concerns in the Gulf of Guinea, threatening maritime trade.

The Nigerian government has adopted a multi-pronged approach to tackle security issues, including: Multiple campaigns such as “Operation Hadin Kai” in the Northeast and “Operation Whirl Punch” in the North-central target insurgent and criminal groups. Attempts at police reform and increased funding for security agencies have been implemented with mixed results.Efforts to negotiate with some groups or offer amnesty, particularly in the Niger Delta. Partner within ECOWAS and with Western countries enhance intelligence sharing and maritime security operations.

Despite these efforts, challenges remain: underfunding, corruption, interagency rivalry, inadequate equipment, and low public trust hamper effectiveness.

Over 3 million internally displaced persons (IDP).

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OPINION

When Does a Nation Die?

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By Chidi Amuta

Recent trends in our national life have forced Nigerians to abandon the virtue of incurable optimism and unconditional hope in the nation as a perpetual reality. It used to be that in all circumstances, Nigerians would never believe that the nation is under any terminal threat.

But in recent times, the percentage of Nigerians awaiting the imminent collapse of the nation has now far outnumbered the minority still hoping that the country will survive its present travails.
It seems that we are fast approaching that slippery joint where it is hard to find any believers in the survival and meaning of Nigeria. Instead, throughout the length and breadth of this vast land, a new and unhappy consensus has emerged: Nigeria is dying!

The usual refrain of “God is in control” or “This, too, shall pass” in difficult times has given way to a silent indignation and resignation.

A silent poor woman who used to be a trader in trivia at the roadside has nothing left to sell and no money to buy what she needs. She raises her open palms skywards in speechless supplication as tears stream down her cheeks. She has become for me an embodiment of the tragedy of the times in which we now live. 

By a curious irony with a tinge of tragicomedy, the Tinubu government is trumpeting ‘hope’ as its most important offering. The regime has adopted what it calls “the Renewed Hope Agenda” as its mantra and unique caption of the -mandate of this presidency. In a note of tragic irony bordering on self -deprecation and mockery, each appearance of the President at a public forum (including gatherings of judges!), a new regime anthem titled “On Your Mandate, We shall stand” has become informally mandatory. It sometimes precedes the old resurrected National Anthem. It sounds more like a comic choir rented to laugh at a nation in the throes of death.

Suddenly, we seem to have arrived at this unhappy consensus: Nigeria is dying! This existential admission of the imminent death of our nation is the unfolding legacy of our endangered democracy. Our elections lack credibility or popular following. In recent elections in Ondo, Edo and Anambra states, the consistent average voter turnout has been below 35%. People register to vote but find nothing worth voting for. They are taking stock of previous years of this ritual of voting and find nothing cheery. They just stay home instead of being counted as part of the statistics of deceit and betrayal.

As it turns out, the greater percentage of this miserable recent turnout are even transactional votes. On the election days, partisan buyers and sellers of votes mount point of sale checkpoints at most polling booths. Your voters’ card entitles you to a miserable cash handout: N2000-N5000. T could be higher depending on the cash power of the contestants. The votes that show up at INEC’s voter machines represent the balance sheet of total sales and purchases made at all the polling stations at the election.

Other aspects of our democracy are equally in disarray. The party system is shattered. The ruling party has become a power monopoly intent on swallowing other parties. The major opposition party, the PDP, has a resident destabilizer with a single mandate: to kill the party and ensure that it is its carcass that walks into the next general election. The rest of the opposition platform has been frightened into disarray by sundry agents of the state and party in power. The various alliances and rumours of alliances are merely scare crows manipulated by agents of the ruling party.

In itself, the ruling party is saddled with hand -picked officials who make no distinction between the party as an institution of democracy and the government in power or indeed between the political party and the state. A democracy in which there is no distinction between the party in power and the party in government leads to a degrading usurpation of the state by the political elite of the ruling party. A factional elite cannot govern a state without wholly appropriating the machinery of the state to its individual and collective advantage. State capture is complete when the leading lights of the ruling hegemonic party become also the leading lights of the nation. The likes of Wike, Umahi and Akpabio become the faces of the nation. These constantly nattering Nabobs of current power negativity have been elevated to the status of arbiters of values for the nation. They brandish their wealth and false identities to frighten ordinary citizens.

In itself, the business of governance under Mr. Tinubu has become a humdrum ritual of boring reflexes. Great national happenings are marked by high school grade routine statements from the pinnacle of power. No actions are initiated.   Once a presidential pronouncement is signed off, the leadership moves on to await the next tragic checkpoint. The life of the nation progresses from one tragedy as preparation for the next. No action plan follows the train of tragedies and failures. Just move on in the hope that tomorrow will be a better day, without bad news and disheartening occurrences. But bad news has become our new normal.

Whatever happens to the nation, one sector never sleeps. Politics of anyhow and anything remains in business. Politicians keep decamping from other parties or no parties to the ruling party in droves. No need to state why people are decamping.   The parties they are coming from or the one they are migrating to stand for nothing. No ideology. No core beliefs. Nothing. And in any case, there are no consequences for changing parties like filthy underpants. So the beat goes on: breakfast in Labour Party. Lunch in PDP. Dinner in APC. Even those in the ruling party either as cabinet members or legislators do nothing in particular to justify their large charges on the public treasury. In return for doing practically nothing, a bunch of jobless politicians earn an entitlement to costly SUVs, free housing, large entourages of domestic and official minions and vast troves of cash in all currencies as kickbacks and contractors’ gift packs. There is delight in chasing off road users with limitless motorcades of official nonentities escorted by authorized state hooligans in uniform.

While politicians luxuriate in plenty, the daily life of our citizenry is mirred in want and penury. Recent policy measures have further eroded the living standards of the ordinary Nigerian. An endless litany of taxes, levies and tolls has rendered every item of living cost unaffordable. Prices of everything ranging from gasoline to cooking gas, school fees to transport fares, basic medication to hospital bills and building materials have shot through the roof. Even if these were elements of economic management, nothing has been put in place to indicate that the state has a compassionate aspect. Instead, there is an unhidden hand of cruelty in new policies. A few days ago, the government expressed an intention to impose a 15% surcharge on the already astronomical prices of gasoline. Only the fear of mass protests as in Kenya, Tanzania and Algeria frightened the government into pulling back on this tax on an existing tax regime on gasoline! 

While the public keeps expecting the government of the day to alleviate mass suffering, the very essence of our national existence is eroded by the day. The most elementary obligation of the state, the protection of life and property, is everywhere in peril. People are now dying daily on an industrial scale. Terrorists, jihadists, bandits, gangsters, casual criminals compete with each other as to how many they kill, abduct, dispossess or cause to disappear.

Those paid by the state to protect the rest of us look on in indifference or manifest the most embarrassing incompetence in the discharge of the duties. At best, none performing or delinquent security officials are fired in droves with no explanations to the public. The other day, the DSS sacked over 100 officers with no public explanation. These hounds have been unleashed into the amorphous public space to heighten an insecurity that has defied decades of tepid government effort. These are officers who are trained in weapon handling and other skills that they will easily deploy to increase our insecurity.

A state that cannot guarantee basic security of life and limbs of citizens has of course failed to protect and guarantee its territorial integrity. Nigerians no longer know where Nigeria stops and bandit territory begins. Every other forest, savannah stretch and unoccupied building in Nigeria is now an ungoverned space literally owned and inhabited by non- state actors. The possession of arms and weapons of war used to be the exclusive preserve of the state. Guns and uniforms used to frighten ordinary people off government. Not anymore. Now, the most sophisticated weapons of war are in the hands of terrorists, bandits and sundry criminals. The most garish uniforms are now worn by non-state organized squads. Jihadists in rags now outgun our best kitted military units. Literally, the Nigerian state has been outgunned by the forces of those that do not wish us well and the government of the day looks on in sheepish incompetence. In some states, elected governors’ stage ‘peace’ meetings with bandit leaders and their armed cohorts while the police and military provide “security” in full view of television cameras. So, whose nation is this anyway?

Only recently, a symbolic drama was staged on the streets of Abuja. In a motor park -like encounter, FCT minister, Nyesom Wike was engaged by a mid -level Naval officer in an encounter over landed property. Instructively, the military high command sided unanimously with the naval officer. In this symbolic scuffle between the military and political wings of the ruling elite, the military asserted itself stiffly as a contender in the game of political supremacy. In an atmosphere where a rumoured coup is being investigated, wise politicians have since sided with the military in this land grab encounter. Wike, a noisy political jackal with scant common sense has been stripped naked and left sulking alone.

The justice system is not left out of the hopelessness. Even in cases where the law is challenged to defend and protect the rights of individuals or track and punish violators of the law, the Nigerian judiciary has been consistently wanting. Judges deliver judgments to fit their bills. Material appeasement of the highest echelons of the judiciary in the form of cash, automobiles, free houses and unaccounted vacations have blurred the boundaries between justice and injustice. The rights of citizens now have a price tag.

The agencies of public accountability only exist to hound those whom the state does not like. The police arrests and detains those it adjudges state adversaries while authorized criminals roam and wax freely. Public protest against misrule and injustice is rewarded with tear gas and bullets and prolonged incarceration without charges or trial. A nation in which the Accountant General can steal most of the funds in the treasury without setting off any audit alarm is at best a rogues’ piggy bank guarded by squads of pick pockets.

Our general perception in the world outside our borders has tumbled to an all-time low. From being the voice of African strength, we have degenerated to a sorry state. Our foreign policy exertions have sunk to a diplomacy of the beggarly. Imagine the recent Threat by Donald Trump in the days of Murtala Mohammed and Obasanjo either as military leader or elected president.

Against the foregoing backdrop, citizen loyalty and confidence in the state has dropped to near zero.  The common man in the streets who used to be proud of his nation in spite of its faults has withdrawn to his or her tent. People are more concerned about surviving to the next day than bother about the niceties of national survival and community. At best, people are now cursing and abusing Nigeria. Many now wish they were never born here. Our passport and identity have become badges of shame abroad. Most significantly, a nation that used to believe that God will ultimately rescue the nation has lost that last anchor of hope in divine provenance and providence. Citizens have begun to doubt the efficacy of divine solution that will save the nation as it is today.

While a general disillusionment has eroded hope and confidence in the nation, the government of the day cannot find the courage to compare itself to any of its predecessors. But governments do not exist in isolation. They derive their credibility from fitting themselves into a historical spectrum provided by their predecessors.

It is not for us to pronounce judgment on the Tinubu government in terms of its record of performance. From the return of democracy in 1999 to the present, citizens can now pick and choose when they last had a good meal, affordable life or peace of mind from insecurity.  We miss Obasanjo’s banking reforms and liberalization of the stock market. We miss his initiative in opening up the telecommunications market. We miss the introduction of debit and credit cards and cashless platforms in the economy. We miss the Jonathan era before he found himself in the midst of Boko Haram. Looking back now, who will not prefer the Naira at 175 to the dollar and multiple access to credit for consumption and business? Or a bag of cement at a little over N2,000? Even Buhari’s N400-N500 to the dollar cannot be compared to today’s hellish N1,500 to the dollar. Or gasoline at N185 a liter compared to today’s N1,000 average for a liter at the pump.

Obasanjo was feared as a strong willed warrior, respected as a nationalist elder statesman and accepted by all as a detribalized national leader. Yar’dua was admired as a man of Spartan discipline and honest patriotism. Jonathan never pretended to be what he is not. He said he would not make too many promises for fear of failing to deliver on any. Buhari was a patent ethnicist, religious fanatic and unrepentant autocrat but he would rather borrow to keep his rusty government going than impose further suffering on the ordinary people.

Against the record of his predecessors since 1999, Tinubu will bear the burden of self -assessment at the end of his remaining two years. Put simply, Tinubu will judge Tinubu. Whether his eventual assessment will be confirmed or repudiated by the electoral outcome of the 2027 election is a puzzle that Nigerian democracy will have to unravel in the years ahead.

The questions are simple: Will Nigerians renew the mandate of a leader who is subjecting them to such harrowing hardship? Will the majority of Nigerians vote again for a party that has been responsible for such ruinous misrule of the nation for over a decade? 

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