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Russia-Ukraine War has Damaged Global Economy- Okonjo-Iweala

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The Director General, World Trade Organisation (WTO), Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, says the damage of the Russia-Ukraine war on the global economy is at a critical point.Okonjo-Iweala said this on Tuesday at a press conference at the WTO headquarters in Geneva.

She also said the impact of the war would be felt around the world, especially in underdeveloped countries, adding that it has created immense human suffering.

“The war in Ukraine has created immense human suffering.
It has also damaged the global economy at a critical juncture. Its impact will be felt around the world, particularly in low-income countries, where food accounts for a large fraction of household spending,” Okonjo-Iweala said.

“Smaller supplies and higher food prices mean that the world’s poor could be forced to do without. This must not be allowed to happen. This is not the time to turn inward. “In a crisis, more trade is needed to ensure stable, equitable access to necessities.

Restricting trade will threaten the well-being of families and businesses and make the task of building a durable economic recovery from COVID-19.”She further advised governments and multilateral organisations to work together to facilitate trade at a time of sharp inflationary pressures on essential supplies and growing pressures on supply chains.

“History teaches us that dividing the world economy into rival blocs and turning our backs on the poorest countries leads neither to prosperity nor to peace. The WTO can play a pivotal role by providing a forum where countries can discuss their differences without resorting to force, and it deserves to be supported in that mission,” she said.

The WTO DG said world GDP at market exchange rates is expected to grow by 2.8 per cent in 2022, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous forecast of 4.1 per cent. “Growth should pick up to 3.2 per cent in 2023, close to the average rate of 3.0 per cent between 2010 and 2019,” she added.

“Output in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region-which excludes Ukraine-pis expected to see a sharp 7.9 per cent drop, leading to a 12.0 per cent contraction in the region’s imports. “However, exports should increase by nearly five per cent as other countries continue to rely on Russian energy. “If the situation were to change, we might see stronger export volume growth in other fuel producing regions.”

She added that WTO has projected that merchandise trade volume growth this year could be as low as 0.5 per cent or as high as 5.5 per cent. “Risks to the forecast are mixed and difficult to assess objectively,” WTO added. “There is some upside potential if the war in Ukraine ends sooner than expected, but substantial downside risks could emerge if fighting persists for a long time or if the conflict escalates.”

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Trump’s Historic Peace Deal for DR Congo Shattered after Rebels Seize Key City

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US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said Rwanda’s actions in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo are “a clear violation of” the peace deal brokered by Donald Trump last week.

In a post on X, he said the US would “take action to ensure promises made to the President are kept”, without going into details.

Trump hailed the deal signed with great fanfare in Washington between DR Congo’s President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame as “historic” and “a great day for Africa, great day for the world”.

But the M23 rebel group said it has “fully liberated” the key city of Uvira in an offensive the US and European powers say is backed by Rwanda.

UN experts have previously accused it of having “de facto control” of the rebel force’s operations.

Rwanda denies the allegations, however, its presence in Washington was a tacit acknowledgment of its influence over the M23.

The rebels were not signatories to Trump’s deal – and have been taking part in a parallel peace process led by Qatar, a US ally.

The latest fighting risks further escalating an already deeply complex conflict.

Prof Jason Stearns, a Canada-based political scientist who specialises in the region, said that the view in M23 circles was that “they need more leverage in the negotiations”, while the feeling in the Rwandan government is that Tshisekedi cannot be trusted.

He added that the assault on Uvira, in South Kivu province, “flies in the face of all the negotiations that are under way”.

The M23’s new offensive in South Kivu started a few days before Kagame and Tshisekedi flew to Washington last week to ratify the agreement first hammered out in June.

Bram Verelst, a Burundi-based researcher with the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) think-tank, said the assault appeared to be an attempt to force Burundi to withdraw the troops it had in eastern DR Congo backing the army against the rebel forces and Rwanda.

He pointed out that Uvira – which lies just 27km (17 miles) from Burundi’s capital, Bujumbura, on the northern tip of Lake Tanganyika – was of strategic importance because of the presence of at least 10,000 Burundian troops in South Kivu.

Yale Ford, an Africa Analyst for the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, pointed out that Uvira, which had a population of about 700,000, was the DR Congo government’s last major foothold and military hub in South Kivu.

He added that the M23 was now likely to establish a parallel administration in the city, and use its military gains “as a bargaining chip in peace talks”.

As for the DR Congo government, it has not acknowledged its latest military setback, but says that the “gravity of the situation is compounded by the now proven risk of regional conflagration”.

Burundi has been a natural ally of DR Congo for years because of its enmity with Rwanda.

Both accuse the other of backing rebel groups seeking to overthrow their respective governments.

The neighbours share a similar language and ethnic make-up – with Tutsi and Hutu communities often vying for power – and both have suffered terrible ethnic-based massacres.

But unlike Rwanda, which is headed by a Tutsi president, the majority Hutus are in power in Burundi.

Burundi’s government fears that if the M23 cements its presence in South Kivu, it would strengthen a Burundian rebel group called Red Tabara.

Based in South Kivu, it is mainly made up of Tutsis – and has attacked Burundi in the past.

In an apparent attempt to placate Burundi’s fears, the M23 said it had “no sights beyond our national borders”.

Burundi has shut its border with DR Congo, but, according to Mr Verelst, it is still allowing people to cross into its territory after carrying out security checks.

Aid agencies say that about 50,000 people have fled into Burundi in the past week.

Burundian troops – along with the Congolese army and allied militias – fought to block the rebel advance towards Uvira, but the city itself fell “without much fighting”, Verelst said.

The fall of Uvira would hit Burundi’s already struggling economy as the country has been suffering from a severe shortage of foreign currency and fuel, and had been heavily dependent on eastern DR Congo for both, he said.

The M23 began a major advance earlier this year when it captured Goma, the capital of North Kivu province, on the border with Rwanda.

At the time, South African troops were deployed to help DR Congo’s army, but they were forced to withdraw after the M23 seized the city in January.

Shortly afterwards the rebels captured the next big city in eastern DR Congo, Bukavu, capital of South Kivu.

The move on Uvira came after the rebels broke the defence lines of the DR Congo army, militias allied with it and Burundian troops.

Prof Stearns said the M23 was estimated to have more than 10,000 fighters, but there was likely to have been an “Influx” of Rwandan troops for the recent offensive to capture Uvira.

The US lays the blame for the recent fighting squarely on Rwanda.

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Five Arrested over Plot to Attack German Christmas Market

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Five men have been arrested in Germany suspected of being involved in a plot to drive a vehicle into people at a Christmas market.

Three Moroccans, an Egyptian and a Syrian were detained on Friday over the plan to target a market in the southern Bavarian state. Authorities said they suspected an “Islamist motive”.

Prosecutors said the Egyptian – a 56-year-old – was alleged to have “called for a vehicle attack… with the aim of killing or injuring as many people as possible”.

The Moroccans allegedly agreed to carry out the attack.

Officials in Germany have been on high alert after previous attacks at Christmas markets, including in Magdeburg last December that killed six people.

Authorities did not say when the planned attack was supposed to take place or which market was the target, though said they believed it to be one in the Dingolfing-Landau area, north east of Munich.

German newspaper Bild reported the Egyptian man was an imam at a mosque in the area.

Police said the Moroccan men – aged 30, 28 and 22 – were arrested accused of having agreed to commit murder, while the Syrian man, a 37-year-old, was accused of encouraging the suspects “in their decision to commit the crime”.

The five suspects appeared before a magistrate on Saturday and remain in custody.

Joachim Herrmann, Bavaria’s state interior minister, told Bild the “excellent cooperation between our security services” had helped to prevent “a potentially Islamist-motivated attack”.

Christmas markets are popular festive attractions throughout Germany, frequently attracting large crowds and significant tourism.

Security at events has been increased in recent years, since an attack in Berlin in 2016 when a man drove a lorry into a market crowd, killing 12 people.

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Nightclub Fire in India’s Goa Kills 25 People

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A fire at a popular nightclub in India’s coastal region of Goa has killed 25 people, local officials say.

Police believe a gas cylinder exploded in the kitchen of the Birch nightclub, located near a popular beach. The venue was packed with revellers who had come to hear a Bollywood DJ.

Four people from the same Delhi family and 21 staff were among the victims, Goa police said, adding that most had died of suffocation.

The nightclub’s manager has been arrested and an arrest warrant for the owner has been issued.

Goa is a former Portuguese colony on the Arabian Sea. Its nightlife, sandy beaches, and resorts attract millions of tourists annually.

Eyewitnesses said of scenes of panic in the bustling nightlife area.

One eyewitness said that it was a usual Saturday night and holidaymakers were enjoying themselves.

He said: “I was outside the club when I heard screams, I didn’t initially understand what was going on.

“In a bit, it became clear that a massive fire had broken out. The scenes were just horrific.”

Though the main entrance is wide, the crossing on the small lake leading to the main structure is narrow and that made it difficult for firefighters to reach the spot.

Local police chief Alok Kumar said the fire had been concentrated in the kitchen area on the ground floor.

Goa’s Chief Minister Pramod Sawant told journalists three people had died from burn injuries, while others died of suffocation.

Six people are in a stable condition in hospital.

A chef who works at a nearby venue said he knew some of the workers at the Birch club.

“People from all over the country and also from Nepal work in different clubs in Goa,” he said.

“I am really worried for some people who I knew at the club. Their phones are off.”

On Sunday emergency teams were combing through the charred wreckage.

An inquiry into the cause of the fire has been launched, the chief minister said.

“Those found responsible will face most stringent action under the law – any negligence will be dealt with firmly,” Dr Sawant said.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi called the Goa fire “deeply saddening” in a post on social media.

About 5.5 million tourists visited Goa in the first half of the year, government data showed, with 270,000 coming from abroad.

Some opposition politicians said that stricter regulations were needed to avoid such tragedies.

They alleged that newer clubs are opening too frequently and the government needs to ensure they are safe for people to visit.

India has seen a number of deadly fires at entertainment venues in recent years.

A fire at a three-storey building killed 17 in the southern city of Hyderabad in May, while a hotel blaze in north-east Kolkata left 15 dead a month earlier.

Last year, 24 died at an amusement park arcade in the western state of Gujarat after visitors were trapped inside. An official review later found poor safety standards contributed to the death toll.

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