POLITICS
Soludo: A Post-Election Anambra
By Dakuku Peterside
At face value, the Anambra election 2021 is over, but the lessons have far broader implications that will endure. Beyond these lessons, of what is considered the most consequential election in 2021 is the management of the people’s expectations and the governor-elect’s ability to fix the jigsaw puzzle of the many contradictions that Anambra represents.
Let’s begin with the election, context and lessons learnt.
Anambra 2021 is an off-season election, and historically off-season elections are indicators of what to expect in preceding general elections. As Chidi Amuta had presented in his column elsewhere, Anambra is unique for many reasons and whatever happens in that state applies to other states in Nigeria, perhaps in different dimensions.First, the contest of the election was defined by the peculiarities of insecurity in the state where non-state actors are contesting for power and are enjoying semi legitimacy because of the apparent support they are getting from locals. IPOB’s persistent sit-at-home regime preceding the election caused a low turnout of voters, and contestants campaigned under a canopy of mortal fear of real danger. The fear of unknown gunmen pervaded the entire space.
Second, the government demonstrated its powers to provide security to citizens of Anambra to participate in democracy’s most important ritual of casting votes against the affront of IPOB and unknown gunmen who threatened to unleash mayhem in the state against candidates and citizens who planned to participate in the election. Whether the relative peace enjoyed by citizens is a function of the deployment of massive security or the effect of the suspension of the sit-at-home order by IPOB will be an exciting study.
Third, the historical peculiarities of Anambra state gubernatorial elections that have seen a series of pitched battles among unruly factions of desperate political hustlers, a high-level religious incursion into civil politics, a tale of high drama, crude machinations, and the deployment of violence, even “dark juju”, and cultic mindlessness. The governor’s power is the ultimate power in a state like Anambra, with more than the usual number of billionaires hustling to capture or possibly buy state power, not necessarily for the people’s good.
The November 6 and 9 elections came and passed with little sinister drama, as some pundits predicted. Anambra citizens defied all odds to heed the call to vote. Comparatively, INEC conducted a credible election by Nigerian standards and declared Chukwuma Soludo the governor-elect. INEC may indeed have fallen short of its benchmark, but yet Anambra 2021 represents hope. In the circumstance of logistics challenges and the pervading threat of local militia, the Nigerian security agencies deployed to Anambra in their thousands also did a fantastic job of providing security to the life and property of people and defying non-state actors who threatened to derail the electoral process. IPOB, in the last few days before the elections, called off the general sit-at-home in Anambra and other south-east states, thereby reducing the tension in the polity.
There are so many lessons to draw from this election by Nigeria and Nigerians. The first is that when the Nigerian state decides to protect its interest and citizens against non-state actors, it goes out of its way to do that. The sheer massive deployment of security agents and the bravery with which they protected lives and property during the election is worthy of note. Such attitude and courage are needed to combat banditry and kidnapping in various parts of the country. Although the ‘militarization’ of the election process is against democratic precepts, in this case, it was a welcome development.
The second lesson is the efficacy of technology deployment in election management. INEC showed great confidence in these technologies. Anambra elections allowed INEC the opportunity to test-run some of the recently added technology for conducting free and fair elections. Although a few glitches were recorded during the polls with the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), INEC has reassured Nigerians of the importance of using this technology and hope to use it effectively and efficiently in subsequent elections.
The third lesson is that all politics is local. The people know what they want, given the right environment, they can express their preference for the kind of leadership they believe can help them fix their challenges and achieve their aspirations. The people of Anambra have consistently shown a preference for accomplished professionals, technocrats or intellectuals, and this latest election follows that trend. We expect a new renaissance in politics where young intellectuals and people from the private sector would take up politics and have a realistic expectation to win if there is a level playing field for all. Soludo signifies this ideal. Other technocrats and citizens are watching to see how all of these play out and shape the future of politics in south-east Nigeria.
After November 9, Governor-elect Soludo will notice that a governor by appointment and another by-election are two different scenarios with no meeting point. The meaning of words and concepts are different and new realities will replace old ones. Pre-election truth will substantially differ from post-election truth. Intellectualizing governance and leadership are more straightforward than practicing it. A state with a relatively thriving economy based on industrialization and enterprise and massive potential for growth – a state of the likes of Azikiwe’s, Ekwueme’s, Ojukwu’s, and more recently, Peter Obi’s.
The people’s expectations of the governor-elect, Soludo, is very high. It is very high not only because he ran an eloquent campaign on ‘Solutions’ to Anambra problems and made several promises on how to tackle most of the problems bedevilling the growth of the state, but his pedigree as an intellectual, technocrat and one of the best minds Anambra produced in recent times imbued in people high hopes that he will perform well as a governor. The enormity of expectation is seen in the reactions of Nigerians, both home and abroad, to his election. Some are seeing him as the pivot of Nigeria’s turnaround to the path of progress on all fronts because they believe a man with a “good head” will run Anambra state, and in extension, other states will emulate Anambra in voting incredible candidates given how good Soludo will be as a governor.
During his campaign, he highlighted that he would improve education, increase local and foreign direct investment, increase internally generated revenue, provide about 130,000 jobs, and create 1,000 millionaires annually. It is one thing to inspire people to dream big, share a vision, and aspire to great heights, and another to design the “How” to bring the vision to life. The common assumption is that the people of Anambra voted for Soludo because he is a man of ideas, a proven technocrat and intellectual per excellence. I hope that these exceptional qualities that stand him out will manifest in his delivery of good governance.
There is no doubt that many are rooting for him to succeed, and he will enjoy the support of many in his bid to grow Anambra state. In his acceptance speech, he posits, “My role will be that of your chief servant, and I will work every minute of the day with you to make you profoundly proud. I will need the guidance, advice and contribution of everyone to succeed”. He will need to rally every citizen of Anambra to work with him to achieve these expectations.
I implore him to start — on time — to manage peoples’ expectations and be realistic about his potentials and limitations in providing solutions to the myriads of problems of Anambra people. He should always carry people along to understand his vision, agenda, strategy, and policies. This action is essential because rising expectations sometimes lead to increasing frustrations. Even when working hard and putting his best in leading Anambra, if people expect Eldorado and expect it pronto, whatever effort and accomplishments he may have made will be seen from a narrow prism.
Like him or loath him, Soludo is the governor-elect of Anambra state. And come March 2022, he will become the next executive governor of the state, barring any legal manoeuvrings. He is riding on great populism based on his antecedents and pedigree. This has brought huge expectations from most Nigerians, especially given that he symbolized the incursion into politics by technocrats and intellectuals who usually would rather stay aloof before now. He is a game-changer.
Whilst managing these huge expectations, he must develop a great strategy to accomplish great things in Anambra and make Igbos proud. He is the only governor from APGA, and he must think deeply about the future of the party and whether to expand and go national or remain local. He will be compared with his predecessors, and he must not pale in comparison. He must not fail. My advice to the governor-elect is “focus on the people! Power belongs to God and the people”.
POLITICS
Mbah Reaffirms Enugu’s Commitment to Trade, Investment, Industrial Growth
From Sylvia Udegbunam, Enugu
Enugu State Governor, Dr. Peter Mbah, has reaffirmed his administration’s commitment to creating an enabling environment for trade, investment and industrial development as part of efforts to accelerate economic growth and improve the wellbeing of residents.
Governor Mbah, represented by the Commissioner for Trade, Investment and Industry, Dr.
Sam Ogbu-Nwobodo, disclosed this at the Amadeo Business Summit 5.0 in Enugu.The five-day summit, themed “Sustaining Growth & Soaring,” brought together business leaders, entrepreneurs, professionals, government institutions and other stakeholders at the Amadeo Event Centre to explore strategies for sustainable business growth and economic development.
The Commissioner noted that the state government remained committed to promoting investment, supporting businesses and industries, improving the ease of doing business and creating favourable conditions for investors to thrive.
He described the private sector as a critical partner in driving sustainable economic development, generating employment and expanding opportunities for the people. He also assured investors that Enugu remained open to credible investments and strategic partnerships capable of strengthening the state’s productive base.
The Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Trade, Investment and Industry, Ifeanyi Onah deliverimh a goodwill message urged participants to apply the knowledge and insights gained at the summit to their respective fields and businesses, while encouraging them to participate in the next edition, Amadeo Business Summit 6.0, to sustain the exchange of ideas and strengthen business collaboration.
The summit featured sessions on business leadership, transformation, youth empowerment, skills development, entrepreneurship, real estate, finance and small and medium-sized enterprise development. The state government reiterated its commitment to supporting initiatives that promote trade, investment and industrial growth in line with Governor Mbah’s “Tomorrow Is Here” agenda.
POLITICS
2027: Tinubu ‘ll Deliver Prosperity If Re-elected, First Lady Assures
By Tambaya Julius, Abuja
The First Lady, Senator Oluremi Tinubu, has assured Nigerians that President Bola Tinubu will deliver on his promise to transform the country and usher in prosperity if re-elected for a second term in the 2027 general elections.
She gave the assurance in Lafia, Nasarawa State, during the grand rally of the North-Central Grassroots Mobilisation Network, organised to mobilise support for the re-election of President Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima.
The rally attracted a large turnout of APC supporters from across the North-Central geopolitical zone, alongside top party leaders, including the APC National Chairman, Prof.
Nentawe Yilwatda; Imo State Governor, Senator Hope Uzodimma; and other governors from the region.Speaking at the event, Mrs. Tinubu said the President’s Independence Day message, titled “From Reforms to Prosperity,” reflected the administration’s commitment to translating ongoing economic reforms into improved living conditions for Nigerians.
She said the economy was beginning to stabilise, while foreign exchange pressures were easing and investors were returning to the country.
“The Independence Day message of Mr President was titled ‘From Reforms to Prosperity’. Therefore, Mr President is saying that they are going to reform the sectors, but now is the time for prosperity, and we can see our economy is stabilising,” she said.
The First Lady also commended governors for their infrastructure development efforts, noting that their contributions were helping to advance the country’s development.
Mrs. Tinubu said the Federal Government was also intensifying efforts to address food insecurity and malnutrition, particularly among vulnerable groups, including children, pregnant women and breastfeeding mothers.
She explained that the administration’s food bank programme was designed to improve access to nutritious food and provide support for malnourished children to help them grow healthily.
“As you see now, we have just finished the food bank programme, where we are helping every child and mothers who are pregnant and also breastfeeding.
“This is to ensure that they can have more nutritious food, and also the children that are malnourished can get treatment and food to grow healthy,” she said.
She added that young people in schools were also benefiting from government support, urging party supporters to take the administration’s achievements and policies to their respective communities.
Mrs. Tinubu described President Tinubu as a bold leader willing to make difficult decisions in the interest of the country, expressing confidence in his ability to lead Nigeria towards prosperity.
She urged residents of the North-Central region to convince voters that the country could achieve better outcomes if President Tinubu and Vice President Shettima secured another term.
The First Lady further said the administration was committed to building a stronger economy, safer communities and a greater Nigeria.
She called on the electorate to support the APC at all levels in the 2027 general elections, arguing that continuity would help sustain the government’s policies and development agenda.
“Therefore, vote for continuity, vote for capacity, vote for prosperity, vote for the re-election of Mr President and all the candidates of APC from top to bottom,” she added.
Other speakers at the rally also urged Nigerians to vote for President Tinubu and APC candidates in the 2027 elections, describing continued support for the party as an opportunity to sustain the administration’s programmes and development plans.
POLITICS
Atiku’s Production Subsidy: Has politics overtaken economics?
By Kayode Oladele
Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, former Vice President of Nigeria and presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress, (ADC), has returned to the centre of Nigeria’s economic debate with a proposal that deserves careful scrutiny.
In his Independence Day policy statement, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar promised Nigerians what he described as a capped and budgeted production subsidy tied to verified petrol refined in Nigeria.
Imported petrol, he said, would not qualify. The subsidy would support domestic refining, its costs and beneficiaries would be disclosed and independently audited and the benefit would be expected to reach Nigerians through lower pump prices.On the surface, the proposition is attractive, particularly at a time when Nigerians are understandably concerned about transportation costs and their effect on virtually every aspect of daily life. However, once the attractive packaging is removed, Atiku’s proposal raises a very familiar economic question.
If the government deliberately reduces the cost of producing petrol so that it can be sold more cheaply, who pays the difference? The answer is the Nigerian public.
Atiku has insisted that his proposal is different from the old subsidy arrangement and that distinction should be acknowledged. The previous system was largely associated with subsidising imported petrol. Atiku proposes instead to support domestic production, with the subsidy tied to verified locally refined fuel. However, moving the subsidy from importation to production does not make its cost disappear. It merely changes the point at which public resources enter the petroleum value chain.
If crude that could otherwise be sold at its economic value is supplied to qualifying refineries at a discount, the difference represents an opportunity cost to the Federation. Atiku himself has acknowledged this. The relevant question, therefore, is not whether the subsidy has a cost.
It plainly does. The questions are how much it will cost, how long it will last, where the resources will come from and whether the expected reduction will actually reach the Nigerian standing at the petrol pump.
This is where the proposal becomes far less straightforward than its political appeal suggests.
Atiku says the subsidy will be capped. What is the cap? He says it will be budgeted. What is the proposed annual budget? What volume of locally refined petrol will qualify? What will be the subsidy per barrel or litre? What happens if international crude prices rise substantially or the exchange rate moves sharply? What is the maximum financial exposure of the Federation? How will qualifying production be verified? Most importantly, what enforceable mechanism will guarantee that the financial benefit given to producers is passed through the distribution chain to the consumer? These are questions of elementary public finance.
The APC Presidential Campaign Council has already asked Atiku to disclose the proposed subsidy rate, annual expenditure ceiling, eligible volume, funding source and safeguards against diversion, smuggling and fraudulent claims. Those are legitimate questions.
If Atiku believes the assumptions being advanced by the APC are wrong, he should provide his own figures. Nigerians need more than the promise that petrol will become cheaper. They deserve to see the arithmetic behind that promise. Anyone asking Nigerians to entrust him with the management of their economic resources should be prepared to put numbers behind his policies.
There is also the legal and regulatory question. Atiku’s running mate, Rotimi Amaechi, has now said that an Atiku administration would seek an amendment to the Petroleum Industry Act if the existing law prevents the proposed production subsidy from being implemented.
That statement is significant because it confirms that the relationship between the proposal and the present petroleum regulatory framework is not an imaginary concern raised by political opponents. It is a matter that Atiku’s own ticket may require legislative action.
This brings us to an even more fundamental issue. Nigeria has travelled the subsidy road before. For years, enormous public resources were committed to keeping petrol prices artificially low. The arrangement became a major burden on public finances and was associated with smuggling, abuse and distorted economic incentives. Resources that could otherwise have been available for roads, schools, hospitals, security, power and other public purposes were committed to sustaining the system.
It is therefore striking that Atiku, who has long presented himself as an advocate of market reform and previously supported subsidy removal, now proposes another subsidy as part of his answer to Nigeria’s economic difficulties.
The mechanism may be different and fairness requires us to acknowledge that difference. However, Nigerians are still entitled to ask what has changed in his economic thinking and why an intervention he once regarded as unsustainable has returned, albeit in a redesigned form, to the centre of his petroleum policy. Politics should not erase institutional memory.
The contrast with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s reform direction should also be properly understood. The choice is not between subsidising petrol and simply abandoning Nigerians to high transportation costs.
Tinubu’s alternative is to move government intervention away from permanently subsidising every litre of petrol consumed and towards changing the underlying economics of transportation through alternative fuels, domestic refining, infrastructure and competition. That distinction, in
My opinion is fundamental.
Under the old subsidy arrangement, the government attempted to make petrol cheaper by absorbing part of its cost. As consumption increased and international prices and the exchange rate moved, the potential burden on the treasury also increased. Tinubu’s alternative seeks to reduce Nigeria’s dependence on petrol itself.
This is the thinking behind the expansion of Compressed Natural Gas and electric mobility. Nigeria is richly endowed with natural gas. Rather than continue depending overwhelmingly on petrol and diesel for road transportation, the government is seeking to use more of that domestic resource to power vehicles while developing electric transportation and mass transit.
The principle is straightforward. If commuters can move more cheaply using CNG or electric transportation, the government does not have to subsidise every litre of petrol consumed in Nigeria in order to reduce transportation costs. If commercial transport operators increasingly move from petrol to domestically available gas, Nigeria can progressively reduce the vulnerability of transportation costs to international petroleum prices and foreign exchange pressures.
The Federal Government reported in September that more than 120,000 vehicles had been converted to CNG, with more than 400 certified conversion centres and over 90 CNG refuelling stations operating across the country. The government has also reported lower fares on some routes served by CNG and electric public transportation.
These are government reported figures and they must ultimately be measured against what Nigerians actually experience across the country. The important point is the direction of policy. The objective is to create alternatives to petrol rather than make the treasury permanently responsible for reducing the price of petrol.
Domestic refining is another essential part of the alternative. For decades, Nigeria lived with the contradiction of being a major producer of crude oil while depending heavily on imported refined petroleum products. A more sustainable petroleum economy should refine more of what Nigerians consume at home while encouraging sufficient competition among refiners, distributors and retailers.
Competition matters because deregulation without competition can leave consumers exposed to concentrated market power. The ultimate objective should therefore be a market with adequate domestic refining capacity, multiple suppliers, alternative fuels and efficient distribution so that competition increasingly influences prices rather than an open ended commitment from the public treasury.
This is where the difference between Atiku’s proposal and Tinubu’s approach becomes clear. Atiku proposes using public resources to reduce the production cost of locally refined petrol in the expectation that the benefit will reach consumers through lower pump prices. Tinubu’s approach is to maintain market based petrol pricing while expanding domestic refining and developing alternatives to petrol, particularly CNG and electric transportation.
Put simply, Atiku proposes another government subsidy to make petrol cheaper. Tinubu’s reform seeks progressively to make Nigerians less dependent on petrol. That is a fundamental policy distinction.
Atiku is entitled to present his alternative to Nigerians. However, he must also submit that alternative to the discipline of numbers. Saying that a subsidy will be capped does not tell us the cap. Saying it will be budgeted does not tell us the budget. Saying it will be transparent does not tell us the annual fiscal exposure. Saying that consumers will benefit does not explain how the government will guarantee that the benefit reaches them.
These details matter because Nigeria cannot afford economic policy built around promises whose costs become clear only after implementation.
President Tinubu took the difficult decision to confront a subsidy system that had become a serious burden on the public treasury. The transition has created pressures for Nigerians and the government must acknowledge and respond to them. The answer, however, should be to make the reforms work better, deepen domestic refining, accelerate CNG infrastructure, expand electric and mass transportation, encourage genuine competition and strengthen the productive economy until Nigerians increasingly feel the benefits.
There is nothing wrong with questioning Tinubu’s reforms. Indeed, Nigerians should question them and demand results. However, questioning the speed or effectiveness of reform is different from concluding that the country should once again commit public resources to suppressing the effective price of petrol.
Atiku says his own subsidy will be different. Then let him show Nigerians precisely how different it will be. Let him state the proposed subsidy rate, the eligible volume, the annual ceiling, the source of funding, the expected duration and the mechanism for ensuring that the benefit reaches consumers. Let Nigerians see the figures and judge the proposal on its actual economic consequences rather than its immediate political attractiveness. That, in my view, is where the debate should be.
Nigeria cannot permanently subsidise its way out of structural economic problems. There will always be political pressure to postpone difficult decisions. There will always be an election around the corner. There will always be an attractive argument for making an expensive commodity cheaper through government intervention. However, somebody ultimately pays the bill. Therefore, before Nigerians are asked to embrace another subsidy arrangement, Atiku should tell them exactly what that bill will be.
Giving an old economic instrument a new design does not remove its cost. Nigeria has travelled the subsidy road before and knows the dangers that can accompany it. The more sustainable course is to confront the weaknesses in the present reforms, accelerate the alternatives, expand domestic production and competition and make those reforms work for ordinary Nigerians rather than return the public treasury to the endless business of paying the difference at the petrol pump.
Kayode Oladele is a Nigeria -US Attorney, former member of the House of Representatives and former Chairman of the House Committee on Financial Crimes.


