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Ukraine Conflict Causing Huge Volatility in Energy Market -OPEC

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The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has stated that the ongoing war by Russia in Ukraine was causing huge volatility for the global energy market. Mr Mohammad Barkindo, OPEC Secretary-General, made the assertion while speaking at the virtual 62nd Meeting of the Joint Technical Committee (JTC) on Wednesday.

Barkindo noted that there were implications and possible far-reaching consequences of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

He said: “As highlighted at our last meeting, the conflict has compounded the uncertainties related to the pandemic.

“It has heralded in further economic volatility, elevated risk premiums for oil, as well as many other essential commodities, given that both the Russian Federation and Ukraine are key global exporters, including of essential agricultural goods.

 “From the oil market perspective, however, what is clear is that Russia’s oil and other liquids exports of more than seven million barrels per day cannot be made up from elsewhere. The spare capacity just does not exist.”

According to him, its potential loss, through either sanctions or voluntary actions, is clearly rippling through energy markets. “The crises we face are causing huge volatility, with daily price swings of more than $5 per barrel occurring on 13 occasions across March and April,” Barkindo said.

He also recalled that April 2020 was the darkest and most sudden downturn in the history of the oil industry due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Barkindo said April 2020 saw global oil demand drop by more than 20mbpd with industries and businesses shuttered-in and populations locked down.

“None of us will ever forget April 20, 2020. On that day, the price of NYMEX WTI in the futures market plunged by 56 dollars/b to minus-37.6 dollars/b, the first ever drop into negative territory. “The markets were reacting to the situation with an unheralded bearish ferocity.

“It was a visceral moment for us all. I do not think any of us here ever envisaged a moment where sellers were literally paying buyers!

“However, the uncontrolled chaos over the month was also met by a landmark decision from OPEC and non-OPEC countries in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) on April 12,” Barkindo said.

He said the move was key to rescuing the industry from the precipice on which it stood, and in turn, assist with the resuscitation of the global economy. Barkindo said what recent events and developments imply was the continuing shift among policymakers to better understanding what was required in the energy transition.

He said: “It is not about moving from one energy to another; it is about utilising all available energies and understanding the energy security dimension of our future to enable the necessary investments.

“This was clearly highlighted last month by U.S. investment bank, JP Morgan in its first annual energy outlook. “It said the world needs to find 1.3 trillion dollars of incremental investment by 2030 to boost all types of energy output and infrastructure from renewables to oil and gas to avoid an energy crunch.

“What we are seeing is a wake-up call to all stakeholders. We need to ensure there is a clear pathway for all energy investments.” Sustained investment in oil is required if we are to expand production and ensure adequate spare capacity, a vital cog in the oil market landscape.” (NAN)

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President Yoon Banned from Leaving South Korea

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The South Korean Government ordered an overseas travel ban on President Yoon Suk Yeol.The South Korean news agency Yonhap reported on Monday that the travel ban is due to the ongoing investigation into Yoon, which involves suspicion of high treason.Yoon unexpectedly imposed martial law on his country last Tuesday night, but hours later, after massive political resistance, he repealed the order.

On Saturday evening, a motion by the opposition to impeach the president in parliament failed.
However, public pressure against the 63-year-old continues. (dpa/NAN)

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Israel Threatens to Expand War if Hezbollah Truce Collapses

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Israel threatened on Tuesday to return to war in Lebanon if its truce with Hezbollah collapses and said this time its attacks would go deeper and target the Lebanese state itself, after the deadliest day since the ceasefire was agreed last week.

In its strongest threat since the truce was agreed to end 14 months of war with Hezbollah, Israel said it would hold Lebanon responsible for failing to disarm militants who violated the truce.

“If we return to war we will act strongly, we will go deeper, and the most important thing they need to know: that there will be no longer be an exemption for the state of Lebanon,” Defence Minister Israel Katz said.

“If until now we separated the state of Lebanon from Hezbollah… it will no longer be (like this),” he said during a visit to the northern border area.

Despite last week’s truce, Israeli forces have continued strikes in southern Lebanon against what they say are Hezbollah fighters ignoring the agreement to halt attacks and withdraw beyond the Litani River, about 30 km (18 miles) from the frontier.

On Monday, Hezbollah shelled an Israeli military post, while Lebanese authorities said at least 12 people were killed in Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon.

Katz called the Hezbollah attack “the first test” and described Israel’s strikes as a strong response.

The Beirut government must “authorise the Lebanese army to enforce their part, to keep Hezbollah away beyond the Litani, and to dismantle all the infrastructure,” Katz said.

“If they don’t do it and this whole agreement collapses then the reality will be very clear.”

Top Lebanese officials urged Washington and Paris to press Israel to uphold the ceasefire, after dozens of military operations on Lebanese soil that Beirut has deemed violations, two senior Lebanese political sources told Reuters on Tuesday.

The sources said caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, a close Hezbollah ally who negotiated the deal on behalf of Lebanon, spoke to officials at the White House and French presidency late on Monday.

Mikati, quoted by the Lebanese news agency, said that diplomatic communications had intensified since Monday to stop Israeli violations of the ceasefire.

He also said a recruitment drive was under way by the Lebanese army to strengthen its presence in the south.

U.S. State Department spokesperson Matt Miller told reporters on Monday that the ceasefire “is holding” and that the U.S. had “anticipated that there might be violations”.

Neither the French presidency nor the foreign ministry were immediately available to comment.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot spoke to his Israeli counterpart Gideon Saar on Monday, saying both sides should adhere to the ceasefire.

The truce came into effect on Nov. 27 and prohibits Israel from conducting offensive military operations in Lebanon, while requiring Lebanon to prevent armed groups including Hezbollah from launching attacks on Israel.

It gives Israeli troops 60 days to withdraw from south Lebanon.

A mission chaired by the United States is tasked with monitoring, verifying, and helping enforce the truce, but it has yet to begin work.

Berri on Monday called on the mission to “urgently” ensure Israel halts its breaches, saying Beirut had logged at least 54 Israeli violations of the ceasefire so far.

Israel has said its continued activity in Lebanon is aimed at enforcing the ceasefire.

Lebanon’s Mikati met in Beirut on Monday with U.S. General Jasper Jeffers, who will chair the monitoring committee.

Two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters that France’s representative to the committee, General Guillaume Ponchin, would arrive in Beirut on Wednesday and that the committee would hold its first meeting on Thursday.

“There is an urgency to finalise the mechanism, otherwise it will be too late,” the source said, referring to Israel’s gradual intensification of strikes even with the truce in place. (Reuters/NAN)

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Starmer Rules out Re-running UK Election as Petition Gets Signatures

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 British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has ruled out calling another general election, but said he is “not surprised” some people who did not support his party, Labour, might want a second poll.

A petition on Parliament’s website calling for another election has now been signed by more than two million people.

“I would like there to be another general election,” it reads.

“I believe the current Labour Government have gone back on the promises they laid out in the lead-up to the last election.

Asked about the petition on ITV’s “This Morning” programme on Monday, Starmer said: “Look, I remind myself that very many people didn’t vote Labour at the last election.

“I’m not surprised that many of them want a re-run. That isn’t how our system works.

“There will be plenty of people who didn’t want us in the first place.

“So, what my focus is on is the decisions that I have to make every day.”

He characterized decisions taken so far by his government as “tough but fair.”

Starmer and his ministers have faced a particularly strong backlash for limiting winter fuel payments to only the poorest pensioners.

Farmers have also protested over changes to inheritance tax which they claim could affect the future of their businesses.

As he marks five months as prime minister, Starmer acknowledged the job has been difficult, but added: “I wouldn’t swap a single day in opposition for a day in power.

“It’s much better to be in power to do things, rather than the frustration, as I found it, in opposition for all of those long years where we were just able to say what we would do.”

The petition calling for another general election is open for signatures until May 2025.

While the vast majority of those signing it are from the UK, it has also gained support from other countries.

More than 1,200 people from the U.S. have added their names to it, with similar a number from France doing the same.

American signatories may have been made aware of the petition by Elon Musk, the businessman and ally of President-elect Donald Trump.

He shared the petition on X, the social media site he owns formerly known as Twitter, claiming “the people of Britain have had enough of a tyrannical police state”.

Starmer’s office sought to avoid being drawn into a war of words with Mr Musk.

The prime minister’s official spokesman added Starmer was “focused on the issues that matter most to the British people.”

Although it has garnered media attention and millions of signatures, it is far from the largest petition received through the Parliament website, or the one which has seen the most rapid take-up.

In 2019, some 6.1 million people signed a petition calling for the revocation of Article 50 and for the United Kingdom to remain in the European Union, four million of whom did so in 48 hours.

The second most-signed petition gained 4.1 million signatures.

The 2016 petition called for a second referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union following the Brexit vote.

Because the election petition has received 10,000 signatures, ministers will issue a response to it.

MPs may consider it further in a Westminster Hall debate because it has been signed by more than 100,000 people, although this is not guaranteed.

A petition which has successfully made it to debate is one calling for social media companies to ban under 16-year-olds from their platforms after it received more than 110,00 signatures.

Another calling for the law around school term-time holidays to be relaxed, which received 250,000 signatures, was due for debate on Monday afternoon.

Michael Westwood, the man who started the petition, has confirmed he voted Conservative at the summer election.

But he told Talk TV he did not know if this would be the case again, adding: “One thing’s for certain, I wouldn’t be voting Labour.”

Among those sharing the petition online was retired actor Sir Michael Caine, who has been critical of Labour governments in the past. (PA Media/dpa/NAN)

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