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Economy

Understanding The Oil Subsidy Quagmire

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By Madaki O. Ameh 

The subsidy regime is so shrouded in opaqueness that it is difficult to explain it intelligibly to anyone.

But simply put, the government alleged that for every litre of PMS purchased at the pump price of N195/litre which was the last operating pump price before the recent jerk up of the prices, the government was paying the importers of the product the difference between the cost of producing that one litre in the foreign refineries and all the related costs (shipping, margins, handling costs, taxes, etc.

) which makes up the landing cost, and the price that the end users have to pay for the product at the pump in different parts of the country.

In addition to that differential, there is also the cost of bridging, which is the cost of transportation of the product from the ports of discharge in Lagos and Port Harcourt, to far flung places, so that the products can be sold at the same price throughout the country.

A really idiotic policy I must say, but that has been in operation since 1975! That was the sole role of the Petroleum Equilization Fund (PEF), which has now been subsumed into the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Agency (NMDPRA) under the PIA.

No one seems to know how much PMS is consumed in Nigeria daily, so the figures keep fluctuating depending on who is in charge of the process at any point in time in NNPC and the other Regulatory Agencies.

And the fluctuations can be anything between 30 million litres a day to 100 million litres a day! Since a subsidy of at least N300/litre was claimed to exist on each litre of PMS, you can imagine the level of fraud if you multiply that figure by the total daily consumption claimed, and the actual daily consumption.

The more the fraudsters got greedy, the higher the alleged daily consumption on the basis of which subsidy was paid. And this went on for decades on end! 

Then, there is another dimension to it – DSDP program. The Direct Sales, Direct Purchase program was designed to be a swap, trade by barter scenario, where crude oil was swapped for the equivalent in PMS with foreign refineries (15 in the consortium) who were required to ship the finished products to Nigeria in exchange for the crude oil they got, since our refineries are always in a state of being perpetually turned around. This was introduced in 2017 and operated until a few weeks ago, when NNPC announced that they had scraped it .

In a transparent environment, there should be no claim of subsidy in this arrangement, because what you get in the quantity of PMS from the consortium is supposed to be equivalent to the value of crude oil shipped to the consortium under the swap arrangements.

Like all things Nigerian, NNPC still claims to have been paying subsidies (or making under recoveries) in respect of the same PMS, whereas there is supposed to be a zero impact in cash terms. Up till this moment, NNPC has not revealed who they have been paying this subsidy to, fuelling the outrage that a few people have been feeding fat on this fraud.

Another interesting dimension to all this is alleged smuggling of refined products across our ever porous borders. The government alleges that our subsidized PMS supplies all neighbouring countries because the Customs, Immigration and other security agencies at the borders cannot effectively checkmate the smugglers who sell the products at a high premium, and so stopping the subsidies would increase the domestic prices of the products and make smuggling unattractive. If there was ever an idiotic argument, this is certainly at the very top!

How do you punish an entire populace because of the ineffectiveness of your own security agencies paid with tax payers money and holding no one accountable? 

The full ramifications of this fraud cannot be unravelled without a wholesale, honest and transparent probe of the activities of NNPC and all the Regulatory Agencies associated with this, including CBN and Ministry of Finance.

Like all Nigerian probes, once the National Assembly gets involved, their sole interest is to plug into the drainpipe and scuttle the outcomes, and this has been happening since 2012 when the first such probe was launched during Jonathan’s regime. 

Chief Madaki O. Ameh, Managing Partner, BBH Consulting, writes from Abuja.

Economy

NGX: BUA Cement, Tier-1 Banks Shed N394bn from Market Cap

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Selloffs in BUA Cement and Tier-one banking stocks on Tuesday dragged the Nigerian Exchange Ltd. (NGX) market capitalisation down by N394 billion, a 0.66 per cent decline.

Specifically, the market capitalisation, which opened at N59.812 trillion, closed at N59.418 trillion.

Similarly, the All-Share Index dropped by 0.

66 per cent, shedding 651 points to close at 98,058.
07, compared to 98,708.
90 on Monday.

This dip also reduced the Year-to-Date (YTD) return to 31.14 per cent.

Market breadth was negative, with 32 losers declining and 26 gainers on the Exchange.

On the losers’ table, Cadbury Nigeria led by 9.89 per cent to close at N16.40 per share, while Northern Nigeria Flour Mill(NNFM) led the losers’ table by 10 per cent to close at N37.

40 per share.

However, analysis of the market activities showed trade turnover settled higher relative to the previous session, with the value of transactions up by 96.08 per cent.

A total of 399.32 million shares valued at N8.93 billion were exchanged in 9,547 deals, compared to 353.18 million shares valued at N4.55 billion transacted in 9,417 deals posted previously.

Meanwhile, UBA led the activity chart in volume and value with 90.41million shares worth N2.61 billion.(NAN)

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Economy

NGX: Analysts Predict Sustained Positive Trends as Investors Gain N836bn

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In the just concluded week, equity investors gained N836 billion or 1.41 per cent, week-on-week.

The Nigerian Exchange Ltd.(NGX) All-Share Index and Market Capitalisation appreciated by 1.41 per cent to close the week at 99,448.91 and N60.261 trillion respectively.

This is against 98,070.

28 and N59.425 trillion respectively posted in the previous week.

Similarly, all other indices finished higher, with the exception of NGX Consumer Goods and NGX Lotus II which depreciated by 0.

84, 1.19 per cent respectively, while the NGX ASeM index closed flat.

Fifty-eight equities appreciated in price during the week, higher than 33 equities in the previous week.

Eighteen equities depreciated in price lower than 43 in the previous week, while 76 equities remained unchanged, same as 76 recorded in the previous week.

On the gainers’ table, Eunisell Interlinked Plc, led 47 advanced equities by 20.69 per cent to close at N3.50 per share.

Also, Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc, led 17 declined equities on the losers’ table by 10.13 per cent to close at N31.50 per share.

A total turnover of 2.142 billion shares worth N85.946 billion in 41,217 deals was traded this week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to 1.447 billion shares valued at N73.889 billion that exchanged hands last week in 39,546 deals.

The Financial Services Industry, measured by volume led the activity chart with 1.176 billion shares valued at N23.739 billion traded in 19,570 deals; thus contributing 54.91 and 27.62 per cent to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively.

The Consumer Goods Industry followed with 366.923 million shares worth N4.672 billion in 4,004 deals.

Third place was the Oil and Gas Industry, with a turnover of 228.439 million shares worth N52.635 billion in 7,547 deals.

Trading in the top three equities, namely: United Bank for Africa Plc, Champion Breweries Plc and Japaul Gold and Ventures Plc measured by volume accounted for 828.822 million shares worth N12.319 billion in 5,080 deals.

This contributed 38.70 and 14.33 per cent to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively.

Reacting, analysts at Cowry Financial Market Research stated that the recent positive quarterly corporate earnings reports, further buoyed market sentiment.

The analysts noted that this was particular in the banking, industrial goods, and consumer goods sectors, delivering strong performances from key players.

They stated that the market sentiment also drove the benchmark index closer to the 100,000 points threshold.

“Notably, we think the current rally is likely to persist, though cautious profit-taking activities may create intermittent dips,” they said.

Looking ahead, the analysts predicted that the stock market was poised for further gains.

According to them, this is as investors look forward to the upcoming macroeconomic data releases and corporate earnings reports, which are anticipated to influence short-term trading dynamics.(NAN)

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Economy

Global Growth Remains Unchanged at 3.2%, as Inflation Recedes- IMF

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF),, says global growth is projected to remain unchanged at 3.2 per cent in 2024 and 2025, as Inflation recedes.

This is according to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update Report for October 2024: “Policy Pivot, Rising Threats,” released on Tuesday during the IMF/ World Bank Meetings in Washington D.

C.

The report said though the projection was in line with the July and April 2024 WEO, there had been notable revisions beneath the surface since the April WEO.

According to the report, some low-income and developing economies have seen sizable downside growth revisions, often tied to disruptions to production and shipping of commodities, especially oil, conflicts, civil unrest, and extreme weather events.

“These have been compensated for by upgrades to the forecast for emerging Asia, where surging demand for semiconductors and electronics, driven by significant investments in artificial intelligence has bolstered growth.”

It said in advanced economies, growth in the United States was strong, at 2.8 per cent in 2024 but will revert toward its potential in 2025.

The report said for advanced European economies, a modest growth rebound was expected in 2025, with output approaching potential.

For emerging markets and developing economies, it said the growth outlook was very stable around 4.2 per cent in 2024 and 2025, with continued robust performance from emerging Asia.

“Five years from now, global growth should reach 3.1 per cent, a mediocre performance compared with the prepandemic average.”

The report showed that there was global disinflation even though service price inflation persists in some countries.

“After peaking at 9.4 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2022, we now project headline inflation will fall to 3.5 per cent by the end of next year.

“ This is slightly below the average during the two decades before the pandemic.

“In most countries, inflation is now hovering close to central bank targets, paving the way for monetary easing across major central banks.”

The report said the return of inflation near central bank targets paved H the way for a policy triple pivot which would provide the much-needed macroeconomic breathing room, at a time when risks and challenges remain elevated.

“The first pivot on monetary policy is underway already. Since June, major central banks in advanced economies have started to cut policy rates, moving toward a neutral stance.

“This will support activity at a time when many advanced economies’ labor markets are showing signs of cooling, with rising unemployment rates.

‘Lower interest rates in major economies will ease the pressure on emerging market economies, with their currencies strengthening against the U. U. S dollar and financial conditions improving.

“This will help reduce imported inflation, allowing these countries to pursue their own disinflation path more easily.”

The report said the second pivot was on fiscal policy and would require countries to stabilise debt dynamics and rebuild much-needed fiscal buffers.

“The more credible and disciplined the fiscal adjustment, the more monetary policy can play a supporting role by easing policy rates while keeping inflation in check.

“The pace of adjustment should be tailored to country-specific circumstances.”

It said the third pivot and the hardest was towards growth-enhancing reforms.

The report said structural reforms were necessary to lift medium-term growth prospects, but support for the most vulnerable should be maintained

It said for reforms to be successful and socially accepted, there was a need to build trust between government and citizens.

“ Building trust between government and citizens, a two-way process throughout the policy design and the inclusion of proper compensation to offset potential harms, are essential features.

The report said that multilateral cooperation was needed more than ever to accelerate the green transition and to support debt-restructuring efforts. (NAN)

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