By Isah Aliyu Chiroma

In a move that has sent clear ripples across Nigeria’s financial landscape, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has taken the bold step of resetting the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 23 percent.

This significant decision, reached at the MPC’s 307th meeting on September 21 and 22, 2026, is not just a technical adjustment, but a profound statement of intent, a recalibration designed to reinforce the primacy and effectiveness of monetary policy in steering the nation’s economic direction.

The MPC’s action to reset the Monetary Policy Rate and recalibrate the Standing Facilities Corridor (+50/-300 basis points) around the MPR marks a strategic operational realignment, aimed at enhancing the transmission of monetary policy throughout the economy.

While the Committee was clear that this recalibration does not constitute a shift in the overall monetary policy stance, it is an unmistakable signal of the CBN’s resolve to strengthen its policy toolkit and support Nigeria’s transition towards an inflation-targeting framework.

For years, the effectiveness of Nigeria’s monetary policy transmission had been challenged by a divergence between the MPR and prevailing market rates. This disconnect weakened the capacity of the CBN to influence market outcomes, dulled the signaling power of the MPR, and threatened the credibility of monetary policy as a whole.

The Committee’s decision to reset the MPR, therefore, is a bold acknowledgement of these challenges and a determined effort to restore the MPR as the anchor of the country’s monetary policy framework.

The timing of this move is as significant as the decision itself. The MPC cited a host of positive macroeconomic indicators that provided the necessary “headroom” for this operational reset. Among these is the steady moderation in inflation, headline inflation slowed to 15.39 percent in August 2026, marking three consecutive months of decline, and food inflation fell to 19.57 percent.

On a broader scale, the 12-month moving average for headline inflation has declined for twenty consecutive months, a testament to the sustained easing of underlying price pressures.

Alongside this, Nigeria’s external sector has shown robust improvement. The balance of payments recorded a surplus of US$3.51 billion in Q2 2026, up from US$2.38 billion in the first quarter, and the current account surplus surged by nearly 68 percent.

These trends have been bolstered by strengthening external reserves, which stood at US$55.25 billion as of mid-September enough to finance over 11 months of imports, the highest level in 18 years.

Real GDP growth has also accelerated, reaching 4.43 percent in Q2 2026, up from 3.89 percent in the previous quarter. Both the oil and non-oil sectors have contributed to this growth, with the non-oil sector expanding by over 4 percent, driven by information and communications technology, agriculture, real estate, and trade. Importantly, the banking sector has strengthened further following the successful recapitalisation programme, enhancing the sector’s resilience and capacity to finance long-term projects.

The recalibration of the MPR also comes at a time of improved policy coordination. The Committee welcomed the recent Memorandum of Understanding between the Federal Government and the CBN on fiscal-monetary coordination, providing a structured framework for policy harmonisation and the pursuit of low and stable inflation.

Measures such as the Presidential Initiative on National Affordable CNG Transit Programme are expected to further support the disinflation process by reducing transportation costs a major input in Nigeria’s price structure.

Investor confidence has been buoyed by these positive developments, as reflected in a strengthening naira, robust external reserves, and improving macroeconomic fundamentals. The MPC’s bold action serves to reinforce this confidence, signaling to both domestic and international stakeholders that the CBN is proactively addressing structural impediments to policy effectiveness.

The MPC’s decision takes place against the backdrop of a challenging global environment. While global growth is projected to slow to 3.0 percent in 2026 due to Middle East conflict, persistent trade uncertainty, and elevated energy prices, Nigeria’s economy has demonstrated increasing resilience.

Domestic output growth is set to remain robust, supported by improved oil production, expanding agriculture, and positive business sentiment as indicated by a rising Purchasing Managers’ Index.

Risks to global inflation remain, with supply chain disruptions, commodity price volatility, and geopolitical tensions posing upside risks. However, the MPC remains confident that Nigeria’s policy environment and recent operational adjustments will help buffer the domestic economy against external shocks.

The recalibration of the MPR and policy corridor is not a one-off event but part of a broader commitment to data-dependent policymaking. The MPC has pledged to closely monitor the effectiveness of these adjustments, ensuring that they deliver the intended outcome of reinforcing monetary policy transmission.

Future decisions, the Committee assures, will remain grounded in empirical evidence and responsive to evolving macroeconomic realities.

This strategic decision to reset the Monetary Policy Rate is a bold and necessary step one that acknowledges both the progress made and the challenges that remain. By realigning its operational framework, the CBN is taking decisive action to fortify the credibility of monetary policy, enhance its effectiveness, and position Nigeria’s economy for sustained growth and stability.

As the dust settles, what is clear is that the CBN has not merely changed a number; it has charted a new, confident course for Nigeria’s economic future.

By Chido Onumah

The Federal Government is strengthening the connection between national security and food security through the AgriShield Initiative, led by the National Counter Terrorism Centre in the Office of the National Security Adviser, in partnership with TAG International.

The Borno State pilot focuses on a concern that reaches every Nigerian household: farmers must be able to reach their land, cultivate it and bring in the harvest without fear. By explaining the protection being provided and bringing community concerns into government planning, AgriShield supports agricultural recovery, safer livelihoods and a more secure national food supply.

AgriShield is a creative campaign under the NCTC strategic communication programme for counter-terrorism and countering violent extremism. Its central message, “Our Presence is Your Peace,” translates security from operational statistics into everyday outcomes.

For a farming family, security means an open road to the farm, crops tended through the season and produce reaching the market. The campaign measures progress by threats removed, harvests secured and ordinary life restored.

This approach is grounded in research. Between June and July, a baseline survey covered 1,409 residents in 18 wards across Maiduguri Metropolitan Council, Jere and Mafa Local Government Areas. Only 17 per cent of respondents were aware of any local action to counter violent extremism, and only about one-third of that group could identify a security-related intervention. Awareness of the NCTC itself was about two per cent. Yet 86 per cent expressed strong interest in information about how government protects them. The findings point to a serious visibility gap: substantial work is being done, but too little of it is understood by the communities it is meant to serve.

The survey also showed why food security provides the right frame for engagement. Unemployment concerned 81 per cent of respondents, the cost of living 70 per cent and food insecurity 57 per cent, while terrorism was named by 29 per cent. About 83 per cent rejected extremist groups and the harm they cause. Government therefore need not convince these communities that violent extremism is destructive. It must demonstrate a credible alternative built around protection, livelihoods, visible delivery and hope, particularly for young people vulnerable to recruitment, irregular migration, drugs and despair.

AgriShield will run initially from October to December in Maiduguri Metropolitan Council, Jere and Mafa. It will combine radio programmes, community town halls, locally performed drama, recorded testimony from farmers and frontline officers, and carefully selected national media content. Four radio stations will carry 24 talk shows and 80 jingle slots in Hausa and Kanuri. Six town hall meetings, two in each local government area, will enable farmers, traditional and religious leaders, young people, women and security representatives to discuss practical concerns directly. An endline survey in December will return to the same wards to measure changes in awareness, trust and public understanding.

The channel mix reflects local evidence. Radio reaches 67 per cent of respondents and is the single most trusted source for 41 per cent. Community and religious leaders form the next most trusted category, while Facebook and TikTok are important for people under 30. AgriShield will therefore use radio for broad reach, credible local voices for trust and short-form digital content for younger audiences. It will also incorporate SMS and telephone engagement so that subsistence farmers are not excluded by limited internet access. Communication will remain two-way: questions and criticism from communities will inform weekly editorial decisions and subsequent messages.

A major strength of the initiative is the breadth of federal institutions that have committed their capabilities to it. At the first inter-agency coordination meeting convened by the NCTC-ONSA on 17 September, the Nigeria Police Force offered its state commands and public-relations network; Defence Headquarters offered its strategic communication structures, monthly briefings, Armed Forces Radio and service platforms; and the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps brought its Agro-Rangers mandate and field presence for the protection of farmers. The State Security Service committed intelligence support and early warning, while the Nigeria Immigration Service highlighted the cross-border dimensions of recruitment and youth migration.

The Federal Radio Corporation of Nigeria offered its nationwide broadcast capacity in more than 25 Nigerian languages. The National Orientation Agency placed its 818 structures and over 4,000 personnel at the service of community mobilisation, dialogue, drama and local-language outreach. The Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution offered state-level peace structures, trained dispute-resolution stakeholders and an early-warning volunteer network. NIRSAL Plc also committed institutional support. These bodies join the NCTC-ONSA in an emerging whole-of-government platform that connects security operations, agricultural resilience, public information, community participation and conflict prevention.

The pilot also relies on partners with strong local knowledge. The Network of Civil Society Organisations in Borno State, which brings together about 200 organisations, will support mobilisation and community delivery. Its grassroots reach complements the NCTC’s continuing engagement with the Partnership Against Violent Extremism network. TAG International provides technical partnership in research, campaign design, content support, monitoring and evaluation. The initiative is also enabled by the Federal Government’s partnership with the United Kingdom Government in strengthening strategic communication, community resilience and counter-terrorism cooperation.

Inter-agency cooperation is itself part of the message. Communities often interpret contradictory statements or isolated agency publicity as evidence of disorganisation. AgriShield establishes a common message platform, nominated communication focal points and a single NCTC clearing house. Operational claims will be verified by the responsible agency before publication, and sensitive information will be escalated through agreed channels. Agencies will appear together at community engagements and amplify verified campaign material through their existing platforms. This arrangement preserves accuracy, protects operations and allows citizens to see a coordinated Federal Government response.

The safeguards are equally important. The campaign will communicate verified operations and results without disclosing itineraries, compromising intelligence or exposing farmers and community messengers to retaliation. Planning will take account of possible extremist backlash, and field engagements will be limited to accessible locations agreed with the responsible security agencies. Local voices will be selected with care because formal gatekeepers are not equally trusted in every ward. Above all, the campaign will avoid exaggerated claims. Public confidence grows when official communication is accurate, timely and matched by visible action on the ground.

AgriShield reflects the Federal Government’s understanding that food security cannot be separated from human security. Military, intelligence and law-enforcement operations create the protective space; agricultural and financial institutions support production; communicators make verified progress visible; and civil society ensures that policy hears the people it affects. Each element reinforces the others. Farmers who feel protected are more likely to return to their fields. Communities that receive credible information are better placed to resist rumours, cooperate with authorities and report threats. Safe cultivation and harvests, in turn, strengthen livelihoods and reduce the economic pressures that violent groups exploit.

Through the NCTC-ONSA, TAG International, participating federal agencies, civil society and local leaders, AgriShield places the farmer at the centre of the national security conversation. The initiative recognises that every safely cultivated field contributes to stability and every protected harvest strengthens Nigeria’s food supply. That is the standard by which the campaign should be judged: credible information, responsive institutions, safer communities and more Nigerians able to produce food without surrendering their land or future to fear.

Chido Onumah is special adviser to the National Security Adviser on Strategic Communication and Civil Society Liaison.

By Uche Igwe

An interesting trend is going on in Nigeria in the name of democracy. Many observers have noticed it, but analysts and activists have either dismissed it or have not taken sufficient notice of it.

It is pervasive, progressive, and at times subtle. The outcome of the 2027 elections has been taken as a fait accompli. Almost all government agencies are acting as if they are under instructions to protect the ruling party’s interests and clamp down on the opposition.

This is why a section of the citizenry is said to be quickly resorting to hopelessness and losing faith in their democracy.

Almost everyone believes that their votes will not count. They have lost complete trust and confidence in their institutions – be they police, electoral institutions, anti-corruption agencies, and even the judiciary. The phenomenon is akin to what is known as state capture.

State capture is a deeper, more systemic form of corruption in which a narrow group of political elites or private-interest groups manipulates a nation’s laws, policies, and institutions to serve its own interests, rather than the public’s. Yet this phenomenon is not new in Africa or unique to the continent.

A classic case was South Africa under former President Jacob Zuma, when he had an infamous relationship with the Gupta family. It also happened in Zambia under late former President Edgar Lungu and is currently happening in Uganda under President Yoweri Museveni.

Nigeria has recently witnessed features synonymous with captured states, including the corrosion of democratic structures, the dismantling of checks and balances, including judicial independence, and the auctioning of the parliament.

The Nigerian National Assembly under Senate President Akpabio has become an enabler of executive recklessness, rather than providing any form of resistance or scrutiny. Agents of the ruling party have connived with the judiciary to disrupt opposition political structures and poison the democratic space.

Anti-corruption processes have been consistently weaponised, targeting key opposition figures and fuelling widespread distrust, apathy, disillusionment, and anger. These narrow interest groups invade the institutions and processes that make public policy to consolidate and entrench their hold on political power.

A wave of political violence is spreading in a calculated attempt to instil fear among the citizens. During the just-concluded elections in Osun State, 29 persons were allegedly murdered. Recently, a prominent social media influencer known for criticising the government, Ibrahim Khalil, was killed at his residence in Gaida Quarters in Kano State.

There are clear similarities between what is happening in Uganda and the unfolding developments in Nigeria. In 2025, Uganda’s military chief and son of President Yoweri Museveni, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, reportedly threatened to castrate and behead opposition leader Bobi Wine. Members of Nigeria’s ruling party have continued to threaten members of the public as the elections approach.

Sainna Buba, a serving commissioner in Borno State, reportedly threatened to cut off the fingers of those who do not vote for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the state. Danjuma Shekwolo, chairman of Kuje Area Council in the Federal Capital Territory, warned residents to either vote for the ruling APC or leave the council.

A wave of political violence is spreading in a calculated attempt to instil fear among the citizens. During the just-concluded elections in Osun State, 29 persons were allegedly murdered. Recently, a prominent social media influencer known for criticising the government, Ibrahim Khalil, was killed at his residence in Gaida Quarters in Kano State.

State capture manifests as a collision between narrow political and economic interest groups, leading to a skewed distribution of economic power, while giving captors an advantage in shaping power dynamics.

Elections become hollow rituals, reforms are cosmetic, and citizens find themselves living in states that look like democracies on paper but which actually function like cartels.

State captors divert resources away from citizens, distort economic decision-making, weaken public services, increase inequality, undermine the rule of law, weaken accountability, and erode public trust. These state captors deploy the resources they accumulate to buy votes and compromise electoral officers and security agencies during elections. 

Captors and their agents invest heavily in the media. By owning several media platforms, often through proxies, they seek to control narratives, promote favourable propaganda and suppress dissenting voices. They sponsor civil society groups who masquerade as activists, while acting as appendages that promote the views of these entrenched private interests.

State capture in Nigeria includes an interesting component worthy of attention. Captors and their agents invest heavily in the media. By owning several media platforms, often through proxies, they seek to control narratives, promote favourable propaganda and suppress dissenting voices.

They sponsor civil society groups who masquerade as activists, while acting as appendages that promote the views of these entrenched private interests. The central aim of these captors is to conspire with collaborators inside and outside the government to redirect state resources to serve their own interests – to gain control of political order.

State capture is the enemy of clean government and democracy itself. In Lagos State today, the long-standing oligarchic influence of the Tinubu political machinery controls public revenue generation through state institutions and diverse patronage networks.

His supporters often claim that he is coming to Abuja to replicate what he did in Lagos at the national level. After three years in office, the cancer of state capture is already eating deep into the tissues of our national life. The 2027 elections offer citizens an opportunity to either disrupt the ongoing invasion or prepare to hand over the soul of our nation to a parasitic club of private interests.

Uche Igwe is a political economy analyst based in Abuja. He can be reached at ucheigwe@gmail.com