OPINION
Why Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger Exit from ECOWAS is no BREXIT
By Olu Jacobs
Comparisons are being made between the sudden exit of the military juntas of
Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger from the Economic Community of West African
States, ECOWAS, and Britain’s 31 st January 2020 official exit of Britain from the
European Union.
On the surface, similarities can be found with Brexit, to wit: some small nation
with a fraction of the GDP of the entire group leaves a Community of equals and
forfeits all the advantages of the economies of scale inherent in a single market
where there is unhindered intra-Community movement of goods and services,
unencumbered by law or tariffs.
As the pretext for leaving, the errant countries accused the Union of promoting
unpleasant polices, policies which were in fact part of the fundamentally practices
of the body and core mandate of the group, and entrenched in its rules of
procedure and which has sustained the Union throughout the 40 or so odd years
of its existence
As a consequence of leaving a group which exerts stronger bargaining power as a
block, the decampees runs the risk of losing out on the group’s negotiating
power and may no longer enjoy free trade with the rest Member
States
But here the comparison ends. The UK at least held a
referendum where its people voted to leave the EU. The trio of
Capt. Ibrahim Traoré, Col. Assimi Goita, and Brig. Gen. Abdourahamane Tiani,
did not bother with such niceties. Having come to power through the force of
arms, they were under no obligation to inform their people, much less seek their
views, before the pompous announcement penultimate weekend that, “taking all
their responsibilities in the face of history and responding to the expectations,
concerns, and aspirations of their populations, decide in complete sovereignty on
the immediate withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger from the Economic
Community of West African States.”
Moreover, Britain was not buffeted by terrorists on the verge of overrunning the
country when it left the EU, nor did it need any help with its security
architecture. On the contrary, it was the most powerful military force in the
union at the time with a strong economy. Still, leaving the EU against popular
expectations shook the global markets and caused the British pound to fall to
its lowest level against the dollar in 30 years. The following day, Prime
Minister David Cameron resigned, and economists suggest that Brexit may
have irreversibly harmed the British economy despite its development level
and reduced its real per capita income, in the long term.
One can therefore imagine the implication for Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger
which together belonged to the ten poorest countries in the world, abandoning
the $702bn economy that ECOWAS represents. These three are not only
landlocked nations bedeviled by the twin plagues of recurring drought and
terrorism, they are moreover hounded by sanctions, substantial populations of
internally displaced persons who are near famine and a losing battle with ISIS-
Sahel and other violent groups.
Burkina Faso for instance is ranked the fourth worst terrorist plagued nation in the
world after Afghanistan, Iraq, and Somalia. It had 597 violent attacks across 10 of its
13 regions in 2022 leading to thousands of deaths and an estimated 1.6 million of its
population internally displaced. Mali‘s 4500 miles of porous borders with seven
neighboring countries has seen similar armed attacks, abductions, car jackings, IEDs,
vehicle-borne IEDs, rocket attacks, targeted assassinations, and armed imposed
blockades and ambushes. With their security services overwhelmed, they can hardly
cope as ISIS-Sahel, formerly known as ISIS-GS, and the al-Qa’ida-affiliated JNIM
operate indiscriminately.
A recent report ( Pls attribute) described this part of the Sahel as “the epicenter of
terrorism globally accounting for 43 percent of terrorism deaths in 2022, more than
South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa combined.”
These are compounded by pervasive poverty, battles over decreasing resources,
mass displacement of people as a result of climate change and refugee problems
caused by ubiquitous violence which have collectively transformed the area into the
epicentre of terrorism . Yet although General Tiani said the reason for his coup was
to check the scourge of terror, the truth was that by 2022, his Niger, which the year
before had the largest increase in terrorism deaths had already turned a corner.
President Bazoum was winning the war on terror so much so that 90 percent of
deaths from extremist groups in the Sahel in 2022 occurred in Burkina Faso and Mali
which were, ironically led by military juntas.
The Niger coup therefore was more likely to worsen rather than reduce the scourge
of terrorism, as history has shown, which was one reason ECOWAS was set against
it and took the drastic measures to impose sanctions and invoke the protocol that
allows it to use force if necessary to dislodge an un democratic government. Another
reason, apart from the need to halt the domino effect of this putsch on neighboring
countries, was because Niger had turned into a bastion of democracy in the Sahel, a
bulwark against Russian and jihadist movement and proof of the success of western
alliance. With the coup the nation lost all aids and military assistance. The EU
foreign policy chief Josep Borrell promptly announced the “immediate
cessation of budget support” and suspension of “all cooperation actions in
the domain of security,” which translated means its allocation of EUR 500
million for improving governance, education, and sustainable growth in the
country, it’s 27 million-euro military training mission (EUMPM) in Niger in
addition to around 1,500 Barkhane troops stationed in the country, has
come to an end with “immediate cessation of budget support” and
suspension of “all cooperation actions in the domain of security.”
France which has provided the country with around EUR 120 million
in development aid in 2022 also suspended all development and budget
support, and the US which had two military drone bases and over 1,000
troops deployed in Niger, and had just announced $150 million in direct
assistance also suspended its security cooperation with Nigerien forces.
For a nation which the World Bank estimates has about 10 million of its
people, or around 40 percent of the population, emershed in extreme
poverty, the lowest Human Development Index (HDI) worldwide and
battling acute water scarcity and food insecurity and high population
growth, there is little doubt that Niger needs all the help it can get from
ECOWAS. In total, the country, like the rest two, relies on close to USD 2
billion a year in official development assistance of which ECOWAS provides
a sizable part and more importantly access to the huge regional market.
Economic sanctions led to the closure of the bustling border between Niger and
Nigeria, halting roughly $1.3 billion worth of annual trade. The United States goods
exports alone to ECOWAS in 2022 were $6.7 billion, and its imports from
ECOWAS totaled $9.4 billion in 2022, up 38.8 percent ($2.6 billion) from 2021.
This is the market that the three nations will forfeit. According to a report, Guinea’s
2008 coup and Mali’s coup had erased a combined $12 billion to $13.5 billion from
their economies over five years, which represented 76% of Guinea’s 2008 gross
domestic product and almost half of Mali’s 2012 GDP.
The real goal of ECOWAS is to promote economic cooperation among member
states in order to raise living standards and promote economic development. The
regional group has also worked hard to address security issues by developing a
peacekeeping force for conflicts in the region. The three juntas claimed they were
taking their 75m people out of the bloc because it has not helped them fight
terrorism. That is clearly not true. For instance, ECOWAS sent thousands of
soldiers to help Mali in 2013 when a jihadist onslaught almost overran it. ECOWAS
members were in fact the leading troop contributors to a UN peacekeeping mission
there until the junta sacked it last year.
Now we come to the real real reason why the three coupists announced on Sunday 28th January
that they were taking their countries out of the regional body. Clearly it is to escape the pressure
been mounted by ECOWAS to return their nations to democracy. Mali and Burkina Faso were
already set to hold elections this year as promised ECOWAS, and Niger is under pressure to
produce a short transition timeline for civil rule.
Lashed by hunger, terror and civil strife the economies of Mali, Niger and Burkina
Faso are stunted by what has been called a “multi-dimensional crisis where insecurity,
humanitarian need, rapid urbanization of the country and the drastic effects of
climate change—impacting access to food and water, which fuel intercommunal
conflict, all converge.”
The earlier they return to the embrace of ECOWAS, the better. As a matter of fact,
the West African regional body remains Africa’s most successful example of
integration and economic, political and security cooperation. People’s free movement
throughout the region, underpinned by the visa-free system and a common passport,
is one of ECOWAS’ key achievements benefitting the region’s citizens. For landlocked
countries such as Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger especially, the Customs Union
facilitates imports through the application of a single common external tariff.
For almost 50 years, ECOWAS’ rules and operating methods have shaped
governance in its Member States.
In effect, the withdrawal of these countries which together account for 15% of
ECOWAS’ population, but nearly half its surface area is some blow to the regional
body and potentially a disaster for the three landlocked countries. However, it is
important for the reputation and the overall well-being of ECOWAS that the
countries return to the fold.
At the extraordinary Session of Ministerial Mediation and Security Council meeting,
which held Thursday to discuss this and the situation in Senegal where the president
had suddenly postponed elections, ECOWAS Commission President, Alieu Touray
said, “If there is a time for ECOWAS to stay together, this is the time … There is no
challenge that ECOWAS cannot overcome.”
ECOWAS has always insisted that the modalities of their withdrawal are
irregular, that such sudden departures are impossible to implement, and do not
comply with ECOWAS’ governing treaty which stipulates one year formal notification
during which states asking to leave must respect their commitments to the bloc.
Critics say the current situation presents an opportunity for ECOWAS to review its
frameworks, policies and practices to make the organisation more consistent and
effective and responsive to the development needs of the constituent States.
While doing that, it might not be a bad idea to create conditions for the return of
the three countries to the regional bloc either.
OPINION
Time to Reconsider our Ties with Israel
By Femi Fani-Kayode
In an article titled “Is Nigeria fuelling Israel’s genocide against Palestinians?”, which was published in Businessday on 30th October, one Suraya Dadoo, who wrote in from South Africa, opened his contribution by quoting our Honourable Minister of Foreign Affairs, my friend and brother, Ambassador Yusuf Tuggar, who he attributed the following words to.
“There is no justification for the carnage that is going on in Gaza… the complete disregard for the proportionality of force that is being meted out on innocent civilians.
This carnage is completely out of hand and totally unacceptable. There is no way to explain the double standards; it has to stop.”He went further by quoting our nation’s number two citizen, Vice President Kashim Shettima’s words at the UN General Assembly (UNGA) in September, where he said the following:
Both the Minister and the Vice President have done us proud with their courageous words and bold stand and it is a reflection of the fact that the Tinubu administration represents the thinking and has expressed the sentiments of the overwhelming majority of Nigerians and have opted to tread the right path when it comes to the tragic events in Gaza and the pitiful plight of the Palestinian people.
Dadoo went further by writing the following, “The Nigerian government has consistently condemned Israel’s military occupation of Palestine and has been particularly outspoken against Israel since October 7. Historically, Nigeria has been a strong supporter of the Palestinian struggle for liberation, and Nigeria was central in efforts to ensure that Israel was not granted observer status at the African Union (AU). According to sources who were at the October 2021 meeting of the AU executive council attended by Africa’s foreign ministers in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, Nigeria’s then Foreign Minister Geoffrey Onyeama took the lead in objecting to Israel’s accreditation and urged other member states to do the same.”
Again, this is comforting but he follows it by getting to the crux of his essay and the heart of the matter by dropping the following clanger: “While the Nigerian government has strongly condemned Israel’s military onslaught on Gaza it also stands accused of fuelling the Israeli war machine that had already killed, at the time of writing, more than 40,000 Palestinians through direct violence and bombing.”
To substantiate his point he wrote, “According to a recently released report titled “Behind the Barrel: New Insights into the Countries and Companies Behind Israel’s Fuel Supply,” Nigeria accounts for 9 percent of the total crude oil supplied to Israel between October 21, 2023, and July 12, 2024. Researchers analysed satellite imagery, ship positions, shipping logs, commodity trade flows, information from port authorities, and financial and media reports to track 65 oil and fuel shipments to Israel in that period.”
He concludes by alleging that,”Over 133 kilotons of Nigerian crude were delivered to Israel from Chevron, Eni, Exxon, Shell, and TotalEnergies. Gabonese crude accounted for 22 percent, and the Republic of the Congo supplied 6 percent, but it is Nigeria’s contribution that has raised eyebrows given the country’s vocal criticism of Israel.”
Dodoo’s allegation, if proven to be true, is deeply troubling and needs to be taken very seriously indeed lest we leave ourselves open to his grave charge of complicity in the genocide that is being unleashed on Gaza by the Zionists.
The matter can be resolved by simply banning all crude oil shipments from Nigeria to Israel.
I hereby call on our President, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, to do precisely that and take an even stronger stance against the Zionists by banning all arms purchases from them and terminating any military and/or intelligence advice or services that the Israelis are offering or providing us with.
If he could find the courage to implement a number of bold and much needed fiscal, economic and constitutional reforms and policies such as the removal of the oil subsidy, the floating of the naira, the establishment of autonomy for the local government areas, the implementation of the students loan fund, the numerous tax reforms and most important of all the refusal to go to war against Niger Republic despite the enormous pressure that the Western powers, led by France and the United States of America, put on him to do so earlier this year, he can certainly muster the same will to kick the Zionists out of Nigeria, nullify their pervasive influence in our country and sub-region and sever all trade, economic and diplomatic ties and relations with them.
General Yakubu Gowon, our revered former Head of State, did this in 1973 when he was in power and as Chairman of the then OAU (AU) in order to punish the Jewish State for its attack on the Palestinians during the Yom Kippur War.
For a number of years before then and specifically during our three year civil war, Gowon had viewed Israel with much distrust and suspicion given the covert support it gave to the Biafran secessionists and its complicity in the attempt to dismember and break up our beloved country.
However the straw did not break the camel’s back until 1973 after which the final break took place and diplomatic relations between our two countries were not restored until September 1992 by the then Head of State, General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida.
I am constrained to say that now is the time to break diplomatic ties with Israel again.
This is the right and proper thing to do in the light of its insatiable compulsion and appetite for mass murder, ethnic cleansing, crimes against humanity, war crimes and genocide and given its insane and psychotic disposition for murdering helpless and defenceless women and children and for killing babies.
Again, this is the right and proper thing to do given the fact that it has not only illegally occupied the land of the Palestinian people for over 76 years and slaughtered and incarcerated millions of the people but has also unleashed what can best be described as the second holocaust against it over the last one year, killing over 60,000 in Gaza alone and thousands more in the West Bank, Lebanon and Syria!
If the world could go to war with Nazi Germany in 1936 as a consequence of the first holocaust, every civilised nation ought to, at the very least, be able to break diplomatic ties with Zionist Israel as a consequence of the second.
Morality, decency and justice demands no less and those nations that insist on applauding the atrocities of the Jewish State and selling weapons of mass destruction to it are not only complicit in its war crimes but are also from the pit of hell and in the service of shaitan.
The Holy Bible says there can be no fellowship between light and darkness. It says we must either choose God or Belial.
It also compels us to resist evil and to fight for the weak, the poor, the vulnerable and the oppressed.
The Holy Quran does the same and is emphatic on the importance of justice for all and support for the less privileged and the vulnerable.
Nigeria can and must NEVER be seen to be complicit in the bestial barbarity that is going on in Gaza or to have relations with the beasts that have relentlessly unleashed it.
Though we have many challenges, ours is a nation of decent, God-fearing, just and right-thinking people who have a long history of standing for the oppressed all over Africa and contributing to the efforts of numerous liberation struggles.
Let us prove to the world once again that that is who and what we are by openly and loudly challenging the barbarity, lunacy and thuggery of the State of Israel at the International Court of Justice, the International Criminal Court, the United Nations, the African Union and all other relevant fora and calling it out for its continuous violations of international law, its disdain for an international rules-based system and its racist, fascist and ethnocentric disposition.
Let us expose its contempt for humanity and human life, its total and complete adoption, espousal and implementation of apartheid as a fundamental principle and cardinal policy in its system of government and its religious fanaticism and proselytising bigotry.
Let us vigorously and aggressively resist its hatred for Arabs and Africans, appalling treatment of Christians and Muslims, rejection of the two-state solution, desire to ethnically cleanse, wipe out and totally eradicate and eliminate the Palestinian race, its intention to establish a ‘Greater Israel’ whose borders would stretch from Egypt to Iran and its heinous crimes and unspeakable atrocities in Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon.
These are concrete and cogent steps that we as a people and nation can take to contribute our quota to the collective fight against the tyranny and oppression of the Zionists and I believe that we are still big and strong enough to take them.
May God guide and protect us in this noble endeavour and may history and posterity be kind to us.
OPINION
Rivers Crisis: How Fubara Can Resolve Stalemate without Firing Shot
By Ehichioya Ezomon
Rivers State Governor Siminalayi Fubara’s made the world to believe that his predecessor and Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, Chief Nyesom Wike, is the architect and purveyor of the political crisis in the state. He’s used every opportune moment to drum this narrative for the consumption of a sympathetic public.
Fubara struck a similar cord lately, at the heat of the contentious and bloody October 5, 2024, local government council election that’s resisted and boycotted by the Wike faction of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) in the state.
Appearing on a Channels Television’s ‘Politics Today’ on Monday, October 7, Fubara advised Wike to let go of his grip on the Rivers polity, “for the sake of the good people of Rivers State, and the love that you (Wike) have always professed for the state.
”On the alleged breach of a “gentleman’s agreement” he’d entered into with Wike to secure his “anointing and endorsement” as the PDP candidate for the March 18, 2023, governorship, Fubara said he’d kept all “understanding” with Wike, and lounged into his talking point of how he’d repeatedly knelt down for Wike for peace to reign in Rivers.
“There is nothing I have not done on this earth for peace to reign. I can tell you the number of times I have knelt to beg (Wike) that, let’s allow this issue to go. I have done everything,” Fubara said, even as continuously states, “I will not worship any human being but God” – indicating alleged Wike’s demand he (Fubara) should worship him, a charge Wike’s denied.
Fubara says he appreciates the fact that Wike played a pivotal role in his governorship, but that it’s God that used Wike as a vessel to fulfil His purpose, and so, only God deserves his (Fubara’s) worship, and not any human. He echoed this sentiment on May 16, 2024, during the inauguration of Egbeda internal roads, in Emohua local government area of Rivers.
Fubara said: “God can do anything He wants to do when He wants to do it. It is only for us to realise that God will not come down from Heaven but will pass through one man or woman to achieve His purpose. So, for that reason, when we act, we act as humans; human vessels that God has used, and not seeing yourself as God.
“I want to say this clearly, that we appreciate the role our leaders, most especially the immediate past governor (Wike) played. But that is not enough for me to worship a human being. I can’t do that.”
However, on May 11, 2024, in Ogu-Bolo, Rivers State, at a grand reception in honour of Chief George Thompson Sekibo for his 20 years of public service, Wike said he isn’t God, and as such, had never demanded that anybody should worship him. “Nobody can worship man. All of us believe that it is only God we will worship. (But) as politicians, we appreciate people who have helped us,” Wike said.
Asked on the Channels TV’s programme what his message to Wike would be if they met, Fubara said: “I’ll tell him that it has gotten to a point where he needs to let go. We need peace in this state. You don’t necessarily need to win all the fights; at times, you just let go for the sake of the good people of Rivers State and the love that you have always professed for the state.”
Noting that “election periods are over and it’s time for governance,” Fubara urged Wike to give peace a chance. “What I am appealing is: Everyone should sheathe their swords. Even to the Minister, my oga (my boss), there is no need to destroy this state. When it comes to the election period, you can fight and do whatever but now is the time for governance. We need all the support,” Fubara said.
“He (Wike) once ruled this state and the state was an envy of every other state. Another person (Fubara) is there now, (and) what we need is the support. After four years or eight years, who knows? I will also leave and someone else will take over. That should be the spirit. Fubara will leave tomorrow. Who knows who is going to come? It might be through him or another person but we need to secure the state.”
But does Fubara really desire peace in Rivers State? It doesn’t seem so! Otherwise, he should quit the baiting, the insulting, the denigrating, the rhetoric, and the labelling of Wike as “the enemy of Rivers State” – all done by Fubara to curry sympathy and secure the approval of the gaming public. You can’t be talking peace and at the same time be fanning the embers of war!
Fubara can stoop to conquer by embracing genuine reconciliation with Wike. For instance, what stops the governor from telling those beating the drums of war for him that, “Enough is enough, I’m going to make peace with Wike for the sake of Rivers State and its people?”
This may not work due to the personal and partisan differences among the former governors and the incumbent. For example, Odili aligns with Fubara and alienates Amaechi and Wike; Amaechi’s sours on Odili, Wike and Fubara; Wike’s beef with Odili, Amaechi and Fubara; and Fubara and Wike are on a war path.
In such a scenario, who’ll call for the “sit-at-table” peace meeting? President Bola Tinubu would’ve fitted the bill, but he literally burnt his fingers the last time he attempted a truce between Fubara and Wike. The agreement, witnessed and signed by Odili, Fubara and Wike, among others, collapsed almost immediately it’s hashed out, with Fubara, who initially said the agreement “wasn’t a death sentence,” turning round to lebel it as political and not constitutional.
So, here’s a simple approach that’ll not only put Wike on his back foot, and induce him to return to the basic, but also push him to his wit’s end! Fubara should select some of the elders and leaders of the divide in Rivers, including the former governors, and inform Wike that he’s coming with a delegation on an agreed date, to fully reconcile with him. The ball will then be centrally placed in Wike’s court to either accept or refuse Fubara’s expressed desire for armistice between them.
Fubara’s offer of peace should be widely publicised in the media – different from his claimed behind-the-scences kneeling down to beg Wike – for maximum pressure and effect on Wike, and it’ll be well and good if the overture comes through! If doesn’t – in the event that Wike declines the invitation to reconcile, his current and intended political antics will be exposed as being the real masquerade behind the political turmoil in Rivers State, and Fubara will be vindicated at last.
All told, the “feat” Fubara achieved with the conduct of the local government council election hasn’t guaranteed a win over the war with Wike. Instead, he’s merely won the battle – a pyrrhic victory of some sorts – while the war remains. It’s still a dicey situation in which “a child doesn’t know when sleep takes food from their mouth” – depicting the futility of the “clever person” attempting to hold on to something that’s slipping away from them.
Fubara strives strenuously to exonerate himself from the crisis he’s helped engineer and sustain for a year now. That Rivers is going through the grinding mill is because of the governor’s failure to use tact and diplomacy in handling and dealing with Wike’s alleged overbearing influence on his government.
Agreed that Wike – amid strong opposition and resistance from even political leaders from Fubara’s homestead – worked on the recommendation of some Rivers leaders, and took Fubara from the civil service to the Government House, for which Fubara should be grateful, and accord Wike the respect he deserves within the ambit of personal relationship and official conduct.
Reciprocally, Wike should give Fubara the space to freely run his government, and not breath down his neck, as doing so portrays him as a “godfather” that exerts maximum loyalty from and punishment on their surrogates. That’s what Wike’s become, and as especially sold by Fubara to the public, which views the governor as the underdog, and backs his duel with Wike in the supremacy contest to control the political structure, power and resources of Rivers State.
But in his quest to crush and humiliate Wike over his appetite for “godfatherism,” Fubara’s committed numerous unforced errors, as he listens and tries to satisfy his supporters, who pressure him to man up and “show Wike that you’re the Governor of Rivers State.” It’s time Fubara ditched their selfish advice, and chart a different course that’ll genuinely ensure peace and security in Rivers!
Ezomon, Journalist and Media Consultant, writes from Lagos, Nigeria.
OPINION
Humphrey Nwosu as Compass for Electoral Reforms
By Taiwo Adisa
One of the major actors in the June 12, 1993 election debacle, Professor Humphrey Nwosu, breathed his last on Thursday, October 24, in the United States of America, at the age of 83. He had served as the Chairman of the National Election Commission (NEC), now the Independent National Electoral Commission, between 1989 and 1993, his tenure terminated by the fiendish exchanges occasioned by the savage annulment of the election.
Professor Nwosu was a Professor of Political Science who was named the Chairman of the electoral body by former military leader General Ibrahim Babangida in circumstances similar to how former President Goodluck Jonathan named Professor Attahiru Jega into that same position on June 8, 2020.
Both IBB and Jonathan had previously not met with the men they named as the nation’s chief electoral officers. Nwosu served creditably, even though the military denied the nation the fruits of his service as NEC Chairman.
While in office, he was the executor of Babangida’s transition as it galloped from one bumpy end to another. The man was, however, determined to get something out of the assignment. He showed he was in office and in power in his determination to improvise a model into practical life mechanically.
He left no one in doubt that he was out to give back to the country of his birth from the pool of the political theories he had read and taught in the university. Working in the shadows of Babangida’s Political Bureau Report, which was the foundation of the regime’s unwinding transition programme, Nwosu applied his theoretical craft and modelled the Option A4 (Open Ballot System) and the Modified Open Ballot System.
With IBB’s regime having adopted a two-party system, it seemed a perfect fit for the elections and the results turned in at different intervals to the satisfaction of Nigerians. There was the local government election, state elections and then the National Assembly elections. At a stage, the nation was treated to a Diarchy, with a full-fledged National Assembly making laws for a military ruler. Everything looked set for the June 12, 1993, presidential poll, which was to crown a tedious transition programme that started in 1986.
Nwosu was upbeat that the law was on his side, despite the serpentine spirit donned by the infamous Association for Better Nigeria (ABN) of Senator Arthur Nzeribe and Abimbola Davies, lurking. Nwosu was prevented from announcing the presidential election in full, as the regime cited a midnight judgment secured by the ABN. Even at that, the whole nation was merely awaiting the official confirmation of what they already knew, Chief MKO Abiola, candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) had defeated Alhaji Bashir Tofa of the National Republican Convention (NRC).
It was an election globally confirmed as the freest and fairest in the nation’s history but the Babangida junta denied Nwosu the accolades, it denied Chief Abiola the chance to savour his victory and drew back the hands of Nigeria’s democratic clock.
For years, Nwosu kept mute on the circumstances that surrounded the testy period of the annulled election but in June 2008, he spoke to TheNEWS magazine, just ahead of the public presentation of the book that chronicled his public service experience. He first told the magazine that he had a sense of history when the appointment fell on his lap and that he believed there was a need to produce a practical situation from the theories.
He said: “I felt I had to do my best to this nation to also convince the person who appointed me that I could do my best for Nigeria and satisfy my conscience and my constituency-the university community. You know, when members of the academic community are given a public assignment; people say they’re just talking theory and that you have to blend theory with practice.”
He described the June 12, 1993 election as a special moment in the nation’s history and said: “So you’ll find that June 12 as a movement was indeed the day Nigerians opted for a democratic political order. They didn’t care, and the parties cut across ethnic, state, and regional boundaries. And Nigerians were highly mobilized and they expressed their choices freely without interference. There was no stuffing of ballot boxes, and there was no manipulation, intimidation, or harassment. Nigerians came out as a body, just like people in the United States and Britain, and voted freely. No intimidation, no one lost his life anywhere, it was God-ordained.”
Indeed, the annulment of the election, which was announced by Babangida on June 23, 1993, was like a prison sentence for Nigeria’s democratic process. Alarm bells rang across the nation. There were threats of war. Many died. Many got maimed and countless went missing as protests engulfed the nation. The nation was on tenterhooks for years. With Nigeria on the brink of disintegration, power changed hands quickly.
General Sani Abacha replaced the Ernest Shonekan contraption left by a “stepping aside” General Babangida. He initially dangled the carrot before the political class but later unleashed his iron-fisted fangs. He battled the pro-democracy agitators with crude despotism. MKO Abiola, who had declared himself president, was arrested, and his wife Kudirat was killed, just as many top pro-democracy campaigners.
No doubt, the aftermath of the annulled June 12 was a broken regime and a fractured nation, culminating in the birth of a wobbling democracy. Democracy in its true form, having been dented with hefty blows in the series of leadership change from Babangida to Shonekan to Sani Abacha, whose death in 1998 paved the way for General Abdulsalami Abubakar to midwife the current Republic within eleven months.
As stated by Nwosu above, most of the kudos for the turnout of the June 12 election were largely due to his modelling efforts. He fashioned out Option A4, which ushered in the freest poll in the annals of Nigeria’s elections. In the interview published by The NEWS, Nwosu justified the decision by the Babangida administration to adopt a two-party structure and declared that a multi-party system would not yield the desired democratic objectives. He said that mushroom political parties cannot defend democracy as they would not be able to muster the structure across the country.
With what we have seen in recent years, Nwosu was right. Though the late Chief Gani Fawehinmi, SAN, had fought for the democratisation of the political party registration process, the fact remains that the multiplicity of parties may not necessarily serve the democratic cause. These days, many political parties are there for political jobs. They either withdraw in favour of the highest bidder a few days before the election, or they are the first to address the media to endorse the outcome of elections, all for a fee.
Incidentally, Prof Nwosu had recognised such shenanigans long before his demise and had equally recommended a revisit of his electoral models. He told TheNEWS: “I feel we should revisit the electoral reforms, modified open ballot system and option A4. We should go back to the two-party structure. We may even allow a third party for those who feel they cannot be accommodated in the two.
You could see in the days of SDP and NRC that you can have integrated parties that look to value consensus, parties that raise national consciousness, parties that have spread all over the country, and parties that cut across ethnic, and religious groupings. I am seriously addressing this issue because I believe in it, and I think that some Nigerians believe in it.”
In this era of troubled elections, I believe that Nwosu’s models should be revisited. His Option A4 should serve as our electoral compass going forward. The modified system and all that Nwosu brought to the table needed to be re-examined by the National Assembly, such that they could give the nation an electoral law that would work for all.