Oil & Gas
Analysts Warn Brent Crude Price Could Surge To $200 A Barrel
Analysts have warned of significant crude oil price hikes which would further erode global economic prospects.
Top grade Brent crude could surge to $200 a barrel if the Iran conflict drags on through the end of June and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to shipping traffic, Macquarie strategists warned in a note.
These fears were echoed by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who warned at an energy conference in Cairo that supply disruptions and rising prices could push oil above $200 per barrel, calling such projections realistic rather than exaggerated.
Egypt, which maintains close ties with the U.S. and Gulf states, has condemned Iran’s attacks on Gulf Arab nations and is actively supporting diplomatic efforts to prevent a broader regional conflict.
Macquarie laid out two scenarios for the oil market. In the more likely case, assigned a 60 per cent probability, the war winds down soon, prices fall relatively quickly from current levels near $108 a barrel, and the economic damage remains contained.
But in the second scenario, which Macquarie puts at a 40 per cent chance, the disruption proves far more durable, with consequences the strategists describe as historically unprecedented.
“With the global economy much less oil-intensive than 50 years ago, we would not be surprised if that would require historically high real prices ($200) for a time,” strategists led by Peter Taylor said in the note.
The scale of the supply disruption is already striking. With the Strait of Hormuz mostly closed, Macquarie estimates around 13% of global oil production will be shut in by end of March, a hit already larger than the peak seen in either of the 1970s oil shocks or the first two Gulf Wars. In 2025, the world consumed almost 105 million barrels per day of oil and products.
Emergency stockpiles held by IEA members over 1.2 billion barrels would provide some buffer, but the strategists note these can only be released slowly. Some countries in Asia are already facing physical shortages of diesel and jet fuel.
“If the Strait were to stay closed for an extended period, prices would need to move high enough to destroy an historically large amount of global oil demand,” the strategists wrote.
Should prices reach $200, the team projects that talk would quickly turn to global recession, with growth slowing by around one percentage point relative to 2025. Central banks would face a stagflationary environment with weak growth alongside elevated inflation with echoes of the 1970s.
In the U.S., the Fed would be confronted with near-zero or negative employment growth alongside rising prices, according to Macquarie.
That said, the strategists suspect a full global recession could be narrowly avoided, partly because governments would likely step in to subsidize energy costs, as several already have. Japan and Italy have already moved in that direction.
Overall, Macquarie’s base case remains a relatively swift resolution. With around 15% of global oil supply at risk of being held back indefinitely, the economic incentive to reach a deal is enormous.
“It is that reality that underpins our view that a deal must eventually be made,” the strategists said.
Oil & Gas
Chevron Says Competitive Local Capacity Devt to Define Nigeria’s Energy Future
The Managing Director of Chevron Nigeria Limited, Jim Swartz, has highlighted key areas that would sustain Nigeria’s energy transition growth pathway.
Swartz, is of the opinion that strong collaboration and partnership are key to sustain the country’s energy needs.
Speaking at the just-concluded 49th Nigerian Annual International Conference and Exhibition (NAICE) in Lagos, Swartz, said no one player can deliver the scale of projects required to achieve the goals set by the country alone.
He declared that Collaboration is essential because no single company, institution, or stakeholder can address the opportunities and challenges of the intersector alone.
And technology will remain a key driver of safer operations, stronger performance, and the future that we will deliver. For Nigeria, the opportunity is significant.The conference with the theme “Thriving in the Evolving Global Energy Landscape: Collaborative Growth and Resilience,” focused on how Nigeria can compete for capital and sustain production amid global volatility.
The managing director listed four pillars he believed are essential to define a resilient energy future.
These include continued investment, enabling long-term policies, competitive local capacity development, and strong partnerships.
He continued, “Building a resilient energy future requires continued investment, enabling policies that are resilient for the long-term, local capacity development that’s competitive and durable as well, and strong partnerships across governments, regulators, industry, and the technical community,”.
He said Chevron has invested in Nigeria for more than six decades, noting the company’s role in building the foundation of the industry and in developing technical capacity.
The firm therefore called for stronger collaboration across government, regulators and industry operators as the foundation for building a resilient oil and gas sector that can deliver growth, jobs and energy security for Nigeria.
BUSINESS
NNPC Saves $3.4bn, Contributes N19.5tn Revenue in One Year
By David Torough, Abuja
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) said it saved $3.4bn through contract restructuring and optimisation over the past year, while increasing its contribution to government revenue to N19.
5tn and boosting crude oil and gas production.Group Chief Executive Officer, Bayo Ojulari, disclosed the figures on Tuesday while presenting the company’s one-year performance scorecard at the opening of the 25th NOG Energy Week in Abuja.
According to Ojulari, the contract optimisation programme reduced operating costs by $3.
4bn without disrupting operations, strengthening commercial efficiency and improving the competitiveness of Nigeria’s oil and gas industry.The scorecard showed that crude oil production rose by six per cent year-on-year to 569.7 million barrels, while gas production increased by 8.1 per cent to 2,576 billion standard cubic feet. NNPC’s contribution to government revenue also climbed by 21.8 per cent to N19.5tn.
Ojulari said Nigeria’s crude oil production has reached about 1.71 million barrels per day, the highest level in five years, while NNPC Exploration and Production Limited achieved a record output of 365,000 barrels per day.
He said the company aims to increase crude oil production to two million barrels per day by 2027 and three million barrels per day by 2030. Gas production is projected to rise from 7.62 billion cubic feet per day this year to 10 billion cubic feet per day in 2027 and 12 billion cubic feet per day by 2030.
The NNPC boss also reported significant improvements in export infrastructure, noting that crude export terminals recorded an average 98 per cent recovery factor between April 2025 and May 2026. He added that major evacuation pipelines, including the Trans Niger, Trans Escravos, Trans Ramos, Trans Forcados and Oando-Brass lines, are operating at 100 per cent availability.
Ojulari further disclosed that NNPC maintained 100 per cent compliance with its Joint Venture cash-call obligations throughout 2025 and into June 2026, although some partners remained in default, increasing the company’s funding responsibilities.
On the commercial front, he said NNPC signed gas sale and purchase agreements covering 1.29 billion standard cubic feet per day for long-term LNG feed gas and 750 million standard cubic feet per day for domestic industrial gas supply to DFL FZE and Dangote Refinery. The agreements are expected to attract more than $20bn in investments, with seven additional transactions under negotiation.
He also highlighted governance reforms, including the resumption of monthly remittances to the Federation Account in July 2025, the restoration of monthly business performance reporting and the company’s first earnings call in November 2025.
Ojulari urged governments, investors, regulators and operators across Africa to strengthen collaboration, arguing that strategic partnerships would be critical to unlocking the continent’s energy potential and attracting greater investment.
Oil & Gas
OPEC Projects Slower Drop in Crude Consumption by Advanced Economies
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), has revised downward its 2026 global oil demand growth estimates, citing expected slower consumption growth in advanced economies, where collective demand will rise by only 100,000 barrels per day.
The cartel said it now expects global oil demand growth to reach 1.
2 million barrels per day in 2026, down from its previous forecast of 1. 4 million barrels per day, explaining that the revision would bring total global oil consumption to 106.3 million barrels per day.In Europe, oil demand will decline by 30,000 barrels per day as weaker economic activity weighs on consumption, OPEC, said in its monthly oil market report.
The OPEC also expects some Asian economies, particularly Japan, to record slower demand growth. The organization forecast Japanese oil consumption to fall by 80,000 barrels per day.
However, strong demand from major emerging economies partly offset these weaker signals.
The OPEC said China would add 250,000 barrels per day to global demand, supported by its petrochemical industry. The organization also forecast India to increase demand by 200,000 barrels per day, driven by infrastructure spending and growth in vehicle ownership. Overall, OPEC expects emerging economies and developing countries to contribute an additional 1.1 million barrels per day to global oil consumption in 2026.
The OPEC’s revision aligns with a broader reassessment of global oil demand expectations.
In its May 2026 report, the International Energy Agency projected a much sharper downturn. The agency forecast a contraction of 420,000 barrels per day in global oil demand for the full year rather than a slowdown in growth.
The gap between the two institutions now exceeds 1 million barrels per day, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the market outlook.
Both reports identified the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a major factor behind market instability. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, six Gulf countries collectively reduced production by 10.5 million barrels per day in April, marking what the agency described as an unprecedented contraction outside pandemic periods.
As supply shortages intensified, oil producers outside the Middle East moved to increase production to offset part of the missing volumes. Several African producers, including Nigeria, Libya and Angola, benefited from rising demand for Atlantic Basin crude among Asian and European buyers that lost access to Gulf oil supplies, according to the IEA.
However, not all African producers can fully capitalize on the opportunity. Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer and an OPEC member, nonetheless showed encouraging momentum. According to provisional data published on May 15 by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, the country increased oil production from 1.546 million barrels per day in March to 1.663 million barrels per day in April 2026.


