Oil & Gas
Analysts Warn Brent Crude Price Could Surge To $200 A Barrel
Analysts have warned of significant crude oil price hikes which would further erode global economic prospects.
Top grade Brent crude could surge to $200 a barrel if the Iran conflict drags on through the end of June and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to shipping traffic, Macquarie strategists warned in a note.
These fears were echoed by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who warned at an energy conference in Cairo that supply disruptions and rising prices could push oil above $200 per barrel, calling such projections realistic rather than exaggerated.
Egypt, which maintains close ties with the U.S. and Gulf states, has condemned Iran’s attacks on Gulf Arab nations and is actively supporting diplomatic efforts to prevent a broader regional conflict.
Macquarie laid out two scenarios for the oil market. In the more likely case, assigned a 60 per cent probability, the war winds down soon, prices fall relatively quickly from current levels near $108 a barrel, and the economic damage remains contained.
But in the second scenario, which Macquarie puts at a 40 per cent chance, the disruption proves far more durable, with consequences the strategists describe as historically unprecedented.
“With the global economy much less oil-intensive than 50 years ago, we would not be surprised if that would require historically high real prices ($200) for a time,” strategists led by Peter Taylor said in the note.
The scale of the supply disruption is already striking. With the Strait of Hormuz mostly closed, Macquarie estimates around 13% of global oil production will be shut in by end of March, a hit already larger than the peak seen in either of the 1970s oil shocks or the first two Gulf Wars. In 2025, the world consumed almost 105 million barrels per day of oil and products.
Emergency stockpiles held by IEA members over 1.2 billion barrels would provide some buffer, but the strategists note these can only be released slowly. Some countries in Asia are already facing physical shortages of diesel and jet fuel.
“If the Strait were to stay closed for an extended period, prices would need to move high enough to destroy an historically large amount of global oil demand,” the strategists wrote.
Should prices reach $200, the team projects that talk would quickly turn to global recession, with growth slowing by around one percentage point relative to 2025. Central banks would face a stagflationary environment with weak growth alongside elevated inflation with echoes of the 1970s.
In the U.S., the Fed would be confronted with near-zero or negative employment growth alongside rising prices, according to Macquarie.
That said, the strategists suspect a full global recession could be narrowly avoided, partly because governments would likely step in to subsidize energy costs, as several already have. Japan and Italy have already moved in that direction.
Overall, Macquarie’s base case remains a relatively swift resolution. With around 15% of global oil supply at risk of being held back indefinitely, the economic incentive to reach a deal is enormous.
“It is that reality that underpins our view that a deal must eventually be made,” the strategists said.
BUSINESS
NNPC Saves $3.4bn, Contributes N19.5tn Revenue in One Year
By David Torough, Abuja
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) said it saved $3.4bn through contract restructuring and optimisation over the past year, while increasing its contribution to government revenue to N19.
5tn and boosting crude oil and gas production.Group Chief Executive Officer, Bayo Ojulari, disclosed the figures on Tuesday while presenting the company’s one-year performance scorecard at the opening of the 25th NOG Energy Week in Abuja.
According to Ojulari, the contract optimisation programme reduced operating costs by $3.
4bn without disrupting operations, strengthening commercial efficiency and improving the competitiveness of Nigeria’s oil and gas industry.The scorecard showed that crude oil production rose by six per cent year-on-year to 569.7 million barrels, while gas production increased by 8.1 per cent to 2,576 billion standard cubic feet. NNPC’s contribution to government revenue also climbed by 21.8 per cent to N19.5tn.
Ojulari said Nigeria’s crude oil production has reached about 1.71 million barrels per day, the highest level in five years, while NNPC Exploration and Production Limited achieved a record output of 365,000 barrels per day.
He said the company aims to increase crude oil production to two million barrels per day by 2027 and three million barrels per day by 2030. Gas production is projected to rise from 7.62 billion cubic feet per day this year to 10 billion cubic feet per day in 2027 and 12 billion cubic feet per day by 2030.
The NNPC boss also reported significant improvements in export infrastructure, noting that crude export terminals recorded an average 98 per cent recovery factor between April 2025 and May 2026. He added that major evacuation pipelines, including the Trans Niger, Trans Escravos, Trans Ramos, Trans Forcados and Oando-Brass lines, are operating at 100 per cent availability.
Ojulari further disclosed that NNPC maintained 100 per cent compliance with its Joint Venture cash-call obligations throughout 2025 and into June 2026, although some partners remained in default, increasing the company’s funding responsibilities.
On the commercial front, he said NNPC signed gas sale and purchase agreements covering 1.29 billion standard cubic feet per day for long-term LNG feed gas and 750 million standard cubic feet per day for domestic industrial gas supply to DFL FZE and Dangote Refinery. The agreements are expected to attract more than $20bn in investments, with seven additional transactions under negotiation.
He also highlighted governance reforms, including the resumption of monthly remittances to the Federation Account in July 2025, the restoration of monthly business performance reporting and the company’s first earnings call in November 2025.
Ojulari urged governments, investors, regulators and operators across Africa to strengthen collaboration, arguing that strategic partnerships would be critical to unlocking the continent’s energy potential and attracting greater investment.
Oil & Gas
OPEC Projects Slower Drop in Crude Consumption by Advanced Economies
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), has revised downward its 2026 global oil demand growth estimates, citing expected slower consumption growth in advanced economies, where collective demand will rise by only 100,000 barrels per day.
The cartel said it now expects global oil demand growth to reach 1.
2 million barrels per day in 2026, down from its previous forecast of 1. 4 million barrels per day, explaining that the revision would bring total global oil consumption to 106.3 million barrels per day.In Europe, oil demand will decline by 30,000 barrels per day as weaker economic activity weighs on consumption, OPEC, said in its monthly oil market report.
The OPEC also expects some Asian economies, particularly Japan, to record slower demand growth. The organization forecast Japanese oil consumption to fall by 80,000 barrels per day.
However, strong demand from major emerging economies partly offset these weaker signals.
The OPEC said China would add 250,000 barrels per day to global demand, supported by its petrochemical industry. The organization also forecast India to increase demand by 200,000 barrels per day, driven by infrastructure spending and growth in vehicle ownership. Overall, OPEC expects emerging economies and developing countries to contribute an additional 1.1 million barrels per day to global oil consumption in 2026.
The OPEC’s revision aligns with a broader reassessment of global oil demand expectations.
In its May 2026 report, the International Energy Agency projected a much sharper downturn. The agency forecast a contraction of 420,000 barrels per day in global oil demand for the full year rather than a slowdown in growth.
The gap between the two institutions now exceeds 1 million barrels per day, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the market outlook.
Both reports identified the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a major factor behind market instability. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, six Gulf countries collectively reduced production by 10.5 million barrels per day in April, marking what the agency described as an unprecedented contraction outside pandemic periods.
As supply shortages intensified, oil producers outside the Middle East moved to increase production to offset part of the missing volumes. Several African producers, including Nigeria, Libya and Angola, benefited from rising demand for Atlantic Basin crude among Asian and European buyers that lost access to Gulf oil supplies, according to the IEA.
However, not all African producers can fully capitalize on the opportunity. Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer and an OPEC member, nonetheless showed encouraging momentum. According to provisional data published on May 15 by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, the country increased oil production from 1.546 million barrels per day in March to 1.663 million barrels per day in April 2026.
Oil & Gas
NCDMB Declares Nigerian Content Compliance Non-negotiable
The Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB) has reaffirmed that compliance with Nigerian Content regulations in the oil and gas industry remains non-negotiable.
The Executive Secretary of NCDMB, Felix Ogbe, stated this on Tuesday at the 2026 Nigerian Oil and Gas Midstream and Downstream Stakeholders Summit in Lagos.
Ogbe was represented by Austin Uzoka, Head of the Directorate of Planning, Research and Statistics.
He said the midstream and downstream sectors remained vital to Nigeria’s economic expansion, industrialisation and job creation efforts.
The summit focused on the theme, ‘Unlocking, Growing and Sustaining Nigerian Content Development in Nigeria’s Oil and Gas Midstream and Downstream Sectors.’
Ogbe described the gathering as a strategic platform for shaping the future direction of Nigeria’s energy industry and strengthening indigenous participation.
According to him, reforms, improved regulatory clarity and growing investor confidence are repositioning Nigeria as a leading oil and gas investment destination in Africa.
He noted that the Board, established under the Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry Content Development Act 2010, continued promoting local capacity development and technology transfer.
Ogbe added that the Board had also advanced employment opportunities for Nigerians across several segments of the oil and gas industry.
He said Nigerian companies had recorded significant achievements in upstream operations, particularly in exploration, drilling, engineering, fabrication and project management activities.
According to him, the next growth phase lies within the midstream and downstream sectors of the nation’s petroleum industry.
He identified gas processing, transportation infrastructure, storage facilities, LPG and CNG distribution, refining and petrochemical development as major investment opportunities.
Ogbe said Nigeria was gradually reducing dependence on imported refined petroleum products through increased local refining and processing capacity.
He described the Dangote Refinery as a strong symbol of Nigeria’s industrial ambition, energy independence and economic self-sufficiency.
Ogbe stated that modular refineries were equally opening fresh opportunities for indigenous participation, local investment and improved national energy security.
He also highlighted ongoing gas commercialisation projects as important drivers of industrialisation and value addition within the domestic economy.
The NCDMB boss specifically referenced the Nigeria LNG Train 7 project and the Federal Government’s Presidential Initiative on Compressed Natural Gas.
According to him, both initiatives would strengthen domestic gas utilisation and support broader industrial growth across the country.
While emphasising the Board’s regulatory responsibilities, Ogbe insisted that compliance with Nigerian Content requirements remained central to industry operations.
“Compliance remains non-negotiable, but it must also be practical, implementable and supportive of investment and business growth,” he said.
He urged policymakers, investors, operators and service providers to deepen collaboration in order to maximise opportunities within the sector.
Ogbe said stronger partnerships would help drive sustainable economic growth, industrial capacity and long-term competitiveness in Nigeria’s energy industry.
The two-day summit attracted major stakeholders from the oil and gas industry to discuss strategies for expanding local content development.
Participants also examined ways to strengthen industrial capacity and improve Nigeria’s competitiveness within the global energy market.


