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Global Growth Slows to 2% in 2023 – World Bank

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The World Bank Group President, David Malpass says global growth is expected to be weak in 2023, slowing to two per cent from 3.1 per cent in 2022.

Malpass said this in his Opening address at the ongoing Spring Meetings 2023 Media Call, a copy of which was obtained by the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) on Monday.

He said several factors were weighing on the second-half outlook.

“Oil prices have jumped back above 80 dollars/barrel. The recent banking sector stress dampens activities and inflation pressures persist.

Malpass said the U.S. month-over-month core inflation had been rising over the last five months, saying there would be new data on Wednesday.

“If we look at developing countries excluding China, we expect a slowdown to about 3.1 per cent in 2023 from 4.1 per cent in 2022.

“The concern in our recent reports is that slow growth will persist for years for many developing countries, increasing the fiscal stress and debt problems.

“It is a combination of weak investment, higher interest rates, and relatively weak growth in the advanced economies.’’

He said the danger was acute due to inflation, currency depreciation, rising debt service costs, and the collapse of international reserves.

Malpass said the diversion of natural gas to Europe presented grave obstacles to developing country production of electricity, fertilizer, and food.

“These problems are severely constraining future growth and deepening inequality and fragility for developing countries.

“I travelled to West Africa in March, where we are working to provide support in the face of these problems.

“Looking at the big picture, I will mention two problems, first, the normalisation of interest rates after an artificial decade near zero.

He said this created problems in terms of the duration mismatch seen in the bank failures, liquidity shortages, and how to allocate the losses.

“The duration mismatch will take time to digest. With inflation persistent and the dollar weakening, the risk is that the losses will be allocated to those with lower incomes, including through inflation.’’

Malpass said the second major problem was that the available global capital was being absorbed by a narrow group of advanced economies that have extremely high government debt levels.

“I will call them sinkholes. To make matters worse, their populations are ageing rapidly and the peace dividend of the 1990s was used up.’’

He said he had advocated a range of new policies that would spur production to combat inflation and currency weakness.

“However, the likelihood is a long period of slow growth, asset reprising, and capital moving in the wrong direction.

“Moving toward a narrow group of governments and big corporations rather than to the small businesses and working capital that could add to global growth.’’

Malpass said two exceptions to the slowdown included China and India.

According to him, China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is rebounding to more than five per cent in 2023, with strong private investment.

“I note the stability of China’s currency and the countercyclical nature of its monetary policy. I was in China in December as they ended the lockdown.

“The government is encouraging growth in services, especially healthcare and tourism.’’

Malpass said India continued to be one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world.

“We are looking for growth of 6.3 per cent in their FY23/24. They will feel some effects from the global slowdown.

“I was there in February and think it will take capital market liberalisation for India to achieve their eight per cent growth goal.’’

NAN reports that the World Bank Group/International Monetary Fund 2023 Spring Meetings opened on Monday in Washington DCand would end on April 16. (NAN)

Economy

Customs Zone D Seizes Contraband Worth N110m

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The Nigeria Customs Service (NCS), Federal Operation Unit (FOU), Zone D, has seized smuggled goods worth over N110 million between April 20 till date.

The Comptroller of Customs, Abubakar Umar, said this at a news conference on Tuesday in Bauchi.

He listed the seized items to include 11,200 litres of petrol; 192 bales of second hand clothing, 140 cartons of pasta, 125 pairs of jungle boots, 47 bags of foreign parboiled rice and 9.

40 kilogramme of pangolin scales.

Umar said the items were seized through increased patrols, intelligence-led operations, and strengthened inter-agency collaboration.

The comptroller said the pangolin scales would be handed over to the National Environmental Standards and Regulations Enforcement Agency (NESREA) for appropriate action, while the seized petrol would be auctioned, and the proceeds remitted to the federation account.

He attributed the decrease in smuggling activities of wildlife, narcotics, and fuel to the dedication and professionalism displayed by the personnel in line with Sections 226 and 245 of the NCS Act 2023.

The comptroller enjoined traders to remain law abiding, adding the service would scale up sensitisation activities to combat smuggling.

“We remain resolute in securing the borders and contributing to Nigeria’s economic development,” he said.

The FOU Zone D comprises Adamawa; Taraba, Bauchi, Gombe, Borno, Yobe, Plateau, Benue and Nasarawa. (NAN)

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Economy

Trade Tensions: Global Economy Stands at Fragile Turning Point -UN

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The UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) has said that the global economy stands at a fragile turning point amid escalating trade tensions and growing policy uncertainties.UN DESA, in a report published on Thursday, stated that tariff-driven price pressures were adding to inflation risks, leaving trade-dependent economies particularly vulnerable.

It stated that higher tariffs and shifting trade policies were threatening to disrupt global supply chains, raise production costs, and delay key investment decisions – all of this weakening the prospects for global growth.
The economic slowdown is widespread, affecting both developed and developing economies around the world, according to the report.
For instance, in the United States, growth is projected to slow “significantly”, as higher tariffs and policy uncertainty are expected to weigh on private investment and consumer spending.Several major developing economies, including Brazil and Mexico, are also experiencing downward revisions in their growth forecasts.China’s economy is expected to grow by 4.6 per cent this year, down from 5.0 per cent in 2024. This slowdown reflects a weakening in consumer confidence, disruptions in export-driven manufacturing, and ongoing challenges in the Chinese property sector.By early 2025, inflation had exceeded pre-pandemic averages in two-thirds of countries worldwide, with more than 20 developing economies experiencing double-digit inflation rates.This comes despite global headline inflation easing between 2023 and 2024.Food inflation remained especially high in Africa, and in South and Western Asia, averaging above six per cent. This continues to hit low-income households hardest.Rising trade barriers and climate-related shocks are further driving up inflation, highlighting the urgent need for coordinated policies to stabilise prices and protect the most vulnerable populations.“The tariff shock risks hitting vulnerable developing countries hard,” Li Junhua, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, said in a statement.As central banks try to balance the need to control inflation with efforts to support weakening economies, many governments – particularly in developing countries – have limited fiscal space. This makes it more difficult for them to respond effectively to the economic slowdown.For many developing countries, this challenging economic outlook threatens efforts to create jobs, reduce poverty, and tackle inequality, the report underlines. (NAN)

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FG To Finalize N1.5trn Road Concession Project- Edun

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The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, says the Federal Government will soon finalise N1.5 trillion road concession project.

Edun made the statement during a meeting with some private sector investors in Abuja on Wednesday.

He said that the government was on the verge of finalising the landmark N1.

5 trillion road concession project, launched in 2021 under the Highway Development and Management Initiative (HDMI).

The minister said that the initiative aimed to involve private sector partners in the reconstruction and management of nine major highways across the country, spanning approximately 900 kilometers.

He said that the partners had almost completed all arrangements for the highways, which they would finance, rebuild, and maintain under 25-years concession agreements.

Edun said that the concessionaires were expected to recoup their investments through tolling fees.

“We met the concessionaires who have virtually concluded all the agreement arrangements for nine roads, nine major highways, which they are contracting to refinance the rebuilding of and to recover their funds from tolling fees under 25-year or so agreements.

“And we met them to iron out the remaining administrative obstacles for the kicking off construction of these roads,” he said.

Edun said that the substantial private sector investment would bridge budgetary gaps.

He added that it would also allow investors to undertake revenue-generating projects, leveraging their expertise and resources for long-term implementation and maintenance.

“Thereafter, it will be a question of signing the addendums and moving to the site.

“As you know, already the 125-kilometer Benin–Asaba Highway concession agreement has been signed. The addendum has been signed.

“All arrangements have been finalised, in fact, the ministry of works have handed over the road to the concessionaires.

“They have already started the preliminary arrangements for reconstruction of that road in place of a 10 lane highway.

“It is an investment, it’s a project and an initiative that will reduce the travel time between Benin and Asaba right up to the Niger Bridge,” the minister said.

Edun said that the Benin–Asaba Highway project, which has already commenced, is expected to reduce travel time between Benin and Asaba from four hours to one hour, significantly enhancing productivity and efficiency in the region.

He described the HDMI, launched in 2021, as a strategic programme by the federal government aimed at attracting private sector investment to improve Nigeria’s federal road network.

Edun said that the initiative seeks to address the challenges of inadequate funding and maintenance by leveraging Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) to develop and manage road infrastructure.

Under the HDMI, 12 highways were initially selected for concession, covering a total of 1,963 kilometers.

These roads include Benin–Asaba, Abuja–Lokoja, Kano–Katsina, Onitsha–Owerri–Aba, Shagamu–Benin, Abuja–Keffi–Akwanga, Kano–Shuari.

Others are Potiskum–Damaturu, Lokoja–Benin, Enugu–Port Harcourt, Ilorin–Jebba, Lagos–Ota–Abeokuta, and Lagos–Badagry–Seme roads.

The minister said that the initiative was projected to generate over 50,000 direct and 200,000 indirect jobs, contributing significantly to the country’s economic growth and development.

The Minister of Works, Engineer David Umahi who joined the meeting virtually reassured the private sector partners on the HDMI of the federal government commitment.

He said that everything possible would be done to resolve the contending issues, adding he will soon be back to address all pending issues.

One of the concessionaires, Mr Kola Karim, representing Shoreline, emphasised the need for right and enforceable documents stipulating the takeoff and handover dates, which would attract investors to invest their funds.

Other private sector partners also requested for the addendum to the original agreement to be signed that would enable toll sections of the completed highways while work was in progress on other sections.

They noted that each concessionaire has unique challenges that should be dealt with accordingly.

Also in the meeting were Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Abubakar Bagudu, and the Director General Infrastructure Concession and Regulatory Commission (ICRC), Dr Jobson Ewalefoh

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