Connect with us

OPINION

Inflation and Trust in the Naira

Published

on

Share

By Uddin Ifeanyi

About a week ago, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the inflation figures for last month. According to our official bean counters, “In July 2025, the headline inflation rate eased to 21.88% relative to the June 2025 headline inflation rate of 22.

22%.”Expectedly, there was much backslapping within government circles where the need to point to evidence of the correctness of the current government’s reform trajectory continues to do battle with (what remains of) the opposition’s constant reminder that on account of the Tinubu government’s policies, poverty currently sashays down the country’s main streets and scavenges its alleys, far more assuredly than it has done in a long while.
As usual, the devil is in the description. And the details of the latest inflation figures is more striking than the fact that, as the Financial Derivatives Company Limited put it, in its commentary on the NBS’s numbers, “Core inflation is currently above the 91-day secondary market T/bills rate of 15%. This signifies a negative rate of return”.The arithmetic of negative real interest rates is not Space X-class. The implications for the economy, much more so. First the arithmetic. The real interest rate is what is left after you back inflation out from the nominal risk-free rate. And the immediate effect of a negative value is that money lent or saved in safe assets actually loses purchasing power over time.In the 10 years to the end of Mr Godwin Ifeanyichukwu Emefiele’s tenure as governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, we witnessed Nigeria’s most egregious example of macroeconomic policy predicated on interest rates lower than the levels at which the market would have balanced the domestic demand for and supply of money.Also known as “financial repression”, the Central Bank advertised its policies as necessary for providing fillip to local entrepreneurs. But when you include the rapacity with which the bank monetised the Federal Government’s deficit, the only cost that was held down by that monetary policy environment was that of government borrowing.And this is as it should be. Economic literature predicts that in a negative real interest rate environment, the government benefits because high inflation reduces the real burden of its debt. Ideally, private borrowers should benefit also. But this only happens if they can borrow at nominal rates below inflation, since they repay with money that is “cheaper” in real terms.Simply put, debt becomes “cheaper” to repay since repayments are worth less in real purchasing power. However, with government’s bulimia for borrowing unleashed, much of what the below-market money rates does is to crowd out private sector credit in favour of government-type borrowing.That is not all. For so long as the CBN is “behind the curve”, in its fight against inflation, the following categories of economic actors will suffer. People who keep their money in bank deposits or government securities. These will watch their purchasing power eroded.Put this way, negative real interest rates are a tax on domestic savers (especially pensioners or those on fixed incomes) that transfers wealth to borrowers and governments. We could take our chance on the government’s more efficient use of the borrowed monies.However, this wealth transfer incentivises a further set of perverse (at least, for the economy’s medium- to longterm outlook) responses.Investors seek riskier assets (stocks, real estate, speculative ventures) in search of positive real returns. And this, as may already be the case in the real estate industry, can fuel asset bubbles if the risk-taking gets excessive.Over the last decade or so, we have seen domestic investors, especially at the retail level, shift into dollar holdings and bitcoins to protect the value of their savings. Capital flight and the naira’s weakness are a continuing vulnerability.In managing monetary conditions of this sort, the central bank faces an obvious dilemma. Leave things as they are, and watch the economy continue its slow-motion reversal, one consequence of elevated capital misallocation risk. Or raise rates above inflation. And risk fiscal stress, following a rise in government’s domestic debt service costs. Followed by a recession.The point that we need keep in mind, here, is that whatever decisions one makes in an economy, there are always costs to be borne. The goal, then, is to ensure that the benefits of policy mixes exceed their costs.By far the bigger problem, though, is that the CBN’s ability to function properly, by anchoring inflation expectations, for instance, is stymied if people expect the accommodative monetary policy to continue. An inflationary spiral — inflation expectations rise, leading to demands for higher wages and prices, which then fuel a new round of rising prices — is but one risk. In the end, once Nigerians no longer believe holding naira assets can preserve value, confidence in the CBN evanesces.Uddin Ifeanyi, journalist manqué and retired civil servant, can be reached @IfeanyiUddin.

OPINION

The David Mark and Atiku Abubakar ADC Protest: A Recycling of Bourgeoisie Metamorphosis

Published

on

Share

By Uji Wilfred

Right from the foundations of the Independence struggle that led to self-rule, political party formations in Nigeria were crafted majorly for the capture of political power through periodic elections.

Political Parties never had ideological foundations that defined the boundaries of political recruitment and participation.

Political parties in their formation, leadership structure and ownership, belonged more to the ruling oligarchs than the people or the masses.

In the First Republic, political parties had little ideological bent, framed along regional and ethnic sentiments, but little of rallying the entire nation along in a unified polity.

In the general elections of 1954 – 1956, each of the ruling political party, the Northern People’s Congress, the Action Group and the National Council of Nigerian Citizens emerged as regional parties in terms of the demographic voting pattern as well as the control of political seats.

The First Republic suffered from a contradiction of centripetal and centrifugal forces within the framework of the tripartite system which eventually led to the collapse of that republic.

Political parties as well as the leadership recruitment reflected a regional and ethnic bias more than the need for the national integration of Nigeria.

Decamping across political lines, irrespective of ideological leanings, were the basic norms of the First Republic with political parties splitting out from the major political party. Formation of new political parties to fragment the dominant hold of ruling political parties were common political vices of the political class at that time. For example, Chief Akintola, despite the ideological soundness of the Action Group, splitted up the party with the formation of a new political party.

Chief Akintola’s desire was fired more by ambition than the issues of ideology and national interest.

In Northern Nigeria, the ruling Northern People’s Congress waged a war of suppression and dominance against other minority political parties with strong ideological bent that inspired minority ethnic nationalism.

The NPC through its slogan of One North, One Destiny, suppressed minority political parties such as the United Middle Belt Congress led by Joseph Tarkaa.

The point is that Nigeria from her foundations inherited a political culture where political parties have weak ideological roots as well as party and leadership recruitment.

Since 1999, Nigeria has witnessed the recycling of bourgeoisie Political Party Formation and leadership recruitment through a process of metamorphosis that defiles ideological lines and national interest.

Political participation and leadership recruitment has been centered on the urgent need to capture power at the center using political parties owned by a few powerful oligarchs.

The People’s Democratic Party in its formation and foundation was a fraternity of past and serving military generals and their civilian equivalent.

The PDP since its inception has been led by past military officers like David Mark and Atiku Abubakar, the civilian equivalent of the military.

The dream of the PDP led by these retired military generals under the leadership of former President Olusegun Obasanjo was the enthronement of Africa’s biggest political party that was to last for a century.

As good as the dream of the party was, the PDP, like the experience of the First and Second Republics lacked deep ideological roots that defined the boundaries of political recruitment and participation.

The triumph of the People’s Democratic Party forced the rival All People’s Party and the Action Congress of Nigeria into a state of collapse and submission leading up to the bourgeoisie metamorphosis that resulted to the formation of the All Progressive Congress on the eve of 2015 with the sole objective to unseat President Good luck Jonathan.

The APC was a metamorphosis and amalgamation of opposition parties including some dissenting faction of the PDP to reclaim the so called birth right of the far right North in Nigeria to produce the President of Nigeria.

Political recruitment and leadership struggle in Nigeria has never been defined by ideological needs to salvage or emancipate Nigeria as a nation. Political struggle has always been a recycling of that section of the bourgeoisie, through a process of metamorphosis, whose objective is to capture political power at the center.

The present protest and political struggle by the African Democratic Congress, the faction led by David Mark and Atiku Abubakar, is a recycling of bourgeoisie metamorphosis not too different from the experience of 2015.

At best, the David Mark and Atiku Abubakar led protest represents that desperate struggle entrenched in the thinking of the Far Right of Far Northern Nigeria, that political leadership resides in the ancestral birth right of the aristocratic ruling political class of the North.

David Mark and Atiku Abubakar perhaps are suffering from a dementia that has made them forget that they were the agents that destroyed the foundations of democracy in Nigeria through the sacking of former President Good luck Jonathan of the People’s Democratic Party.

These men formed the All Progressive Congress and wrestled power from a democratic government exploiting the dynamics of national security and developmental challenges.

In 2015, Nigerians believed their opinions and through the ballot removed Good luck Jonathan.

However, since then, has Nigeria fared better under the APC that was enthroned by oligarchs leading in the present protest under the auspices of the ADC.

Perhaps, David Mark and Atiku Abubakar may assume that Nigeria suffers from a collective dementia that has forgotten the past so soon.

There is an adage that says, he who comes to justice and equity must come with clean hands. The same forces that enthroned bad governance in Nigeria factored in the APC, through a metamorphosis, want to rebirth another Nigeria through the ADC.

In ideological terms, this does not make sense, the ADC Protest is the same old thing of old wine in a new wine bottle.

If Nigeria must experience a change, let it come through some revolutionary medium that will not exploit the people’s trust and betray them once in power.

Over the past decades, the betrayal of public trust, exploiting the innocence of the people, perhaps the naivety of the people, is what we have seen and experienced through the circles of bourgeoisie metamorphosis and political leadership recruitment.

Continue Reading

OPINION

Where the Politicians Got it Wrong

Published

on

Share

By Raphael Atuu

Benue State, fondly referred to as the “Food Basket of the Nation,” was created on February 3, 1976, by the military administration, carved out of the old Plateau State. From its inception, the state was administered by a succession of military administrators, followed by civilian governors in Nigeria’s evolving political landscape.

Over the decades, leadership passed through several hands each leaving varying degrees of impact on the state’s trajectory.

In its early years, Benue was widely regarded as a peaceful and united society. Communities coexisted in harmony, bound by shared values, cultural pride, and a strong sense of collective identity.

The economy was largely driven by agriculture, with fertile lands producing yams, rice, cassava, and other staple crops. Institutions like the Benue Cement Company also contributed to economic activity and employment.

In those days, the government was distant from the daily struggle of the average citizen. Few people concerned themselves with the affairs of Government House. Wealth and dignity were derived from hard work, farming, trading, and craftsmanship not political patronage.

The people spoke with one voice, celebrated their traditions with pride, and upheld communal respect as a guiding principle.

However, the return of democracy in 1999 marked a significant turning point, one that would reshape the state’s social and political fabric in ways few anticipated.

With democratic governance came new opportunities, but also new challenges. Politics gradually became the most attractive path to wealth and influence.

For many, Government House transformed from a symbol of public service into a gateway to personal enrichment.

The perception of politics shifted from service to self-interest.

As political competition intensified, unity began to erode. Divisions along ethnic, local government, and party lines deepened. The once cohesive voice of the Benue people became fragmented, often drowned in partisan conflicts and power struggles.

Perhaps more troubling was the subtle transformation in societal values.

 The Benue man, once admired for courage, resilience, and industry, began though not universally to exhibit tendencies toward dependency and political loyalty over merit.

Sycophancy started to replace integrity, and the dignity of labor was gradually overshadowed by the allure of quick gains through political connections.

Elected officials rose to positions of authority and influence, becoming key decision-makers in society.

 Yet, for many citizens, the dividends of democracy remained elusive. Infrastructure development lagged, agricultural potential remained underutilized, and poverty persisted despite abundant natural resources.

The irony is striking: a state so richly endowed, yet struggling to translate its potential into tangible progress.

Beyond economics, insecurity and communal clashes in recent years have further strained the social fabric.

 The peace that once defined Benue has been challenged, forcing many communities to confront displacement and uncertainty.

While these issues are complex and multifaceted, the role of political leadership in addressing or failing to address them cannot be ignored.

So, where did the politicians get it wrong?

They lost sight of the essence of leadership service to the people. Governance became more about control than development, more about personal gain than collective good.

 Long term planning gave way to short term political calculations. Investments in agriculture, which should have remained the backbone of the state’s economy, were neglected in favor of less sustainable ventures.

Moreover, the failure to foster unity and inclusive governance widened the gap between leaders and the led. Politics became a tool for division rather than a platform for progress.

Yet, all hope is not lost.

Benue still possesses immense potential, fertile land, vibrant culture, and resilient people, what is needed is a return to the values that once defined the state: hard work, unity, integrity, and community driven development.

 Leadership must be reimagined, not as an avenue for wealth, but as a responsibility to uplift the people.

The story of Benue State is not just one of decline it is also one of possibility.

 With the right vision, commitment, and collective will, the state can reclaim its place as a model of peace, productivity, and progress.

The question remains: will its leaders and its people rise to the occasion?

If you want, I can.

Continue Reading

OPINION

Nigeria Not Collapsing, Recalibrating Unsustainable System

Published

on

Share

By Tanimu Yakubu

Nigeria is not collapsing; it is confronting long-avoided economic realities. The current hardship, though undeniable, reflects a deliberate process of correcting structural imbalances that have persisted for years. Distress is evident, but it must not be mistaken for systemic failure.

Countries in true economic collapse do not unify exchange rates, rebuild external reserves, regain access to international capital markets, or improve fiscal performance.

Nigeria, despite significant pressures, is making measurable progress across these indicators.

Ending a Distorted Economic Order

For years, Nigeria operated under an economic framework that projected stability while masking deep inefficiencies.

Artificially suppressed fuel prices, multiple exchange rate windows, and expansionary fiscal practices incentivized arbitrage over productivity.

These distortions disproportionately benefited a narrow segment of the population while imposing hidden costs on the broader economy.

Their removal has revealed the true cost structure of the system. While this transition has triggered inflationary pressures, it has also restored policy transparency and enhanced the credibility of economic management.

Strengthening the Fiscal Base

Recent fiscal data indicates a strengthening foundation. Distributable revenues to the Federation Account have risen by over 40 percent following subsidy removal, reflecting improved remittance discipline and reduced leakages.

Nigeria’s public debt remains below 30 percent of GDP, a relatively moderate level compared to peer emerging markets, according to the International Monetary Fund. Meanwhile, external reserves have surpassed $40 billion, based on figures from the Central Bank of Nigeria.

At the subnational level, increased fiscal inflows are enabling more consistent salary payments, with some states introducing inflation adjustments, an indication of gradually expanding fiscal space.

Inflation: A Transitional Challenge

Inflation remains the most immediate and visible consequence of ongoing reforms. It is being driven by exchange rate adjustments, energy price corrections, and longstanding supply-side constraints.

Global experience suggests that such inflationary spikes are often temporary when reforms are sustained. The greater risk lies not in reform itself, but in policy inconsistency or reversal.

Interpreting the Present Moment

Public frustration is both expected and understandable. Nigerians are justified in demanding tangible improvements in living standards. However, it is important to distinguish between short-term hardship and systemic collapse.

Nigeria’s institutional framework remains intact, fiscal capacity is improving, and macroeconomic reforms are actively progressing. This phase represents adjustment, not disintegration.

From Stabilisation to Impact

The next phase of reform must translate macroeconomic gains into measurable improvements in citizens’ welfare.

Strategic investments in healthcare, education, and targeted social protection will be essential to sustaining public confidence.

Ultimately, the credibility of these reforms will be judged not by policy intent, but by their impact on everyday life.

Conclusion: The Imperative of Consistency

Nigeria has long recognised its economic challenges; what has often been lacking is sustained policy execution. The greatest threat at this juncture is not reform fatigue, but reform reversal.

Abandoning the current course would erode credibility, deter investment, and reintroduce the very distortions that hindered growth.

This moment demands patience, discipline, and resolve. Nigeria is not collapsing, it is undertaking a necessary correction and laying the foundation for a more resilient economic future.

Tanimu Yakubu is DG, Budget Office of the Federation.

Continue Reading

Advertisement

Top Stories

Metro24 minutes ago

President Tinubu commissions 60 megawatts gas turbine, other projects in bayelsa

ShareFrom Mike Tayese, Yenagoa The much awaited 60 megawatts Gas Turbine embarked upon by the administration of Governor Douye Diri...

NEWS26 minutes ago

Ijaw Traditional Rulers, elders suspend INC elections

Share The National Conference of Ijaw Traditional Rulers and Elders (N-CITRE-INC) has suspended the Ijaw National Congress (INC) elections till...

NEWS40 minutes ago

Experts Advocate Digital Economy, Governance Reforms as Pathway to Inclusive Growth

ShareBy David Torough, Abuja Stakeholders at the 2026 Academic Staff Union of Polytechnics (ASUP) International Conference in Bida have called...

NEWS48 minutes ago

Digital Economy, Good Governance Key to Unlocking Inclusive Growth in Developing Nations — Expert

ShareBy David Torough, Abuja At the 2026 Academic Staff Union of Polytechnics (ASUP) National Conference held at the Federal Polytechnic...

Metro1 day ago

UNILAG Alumni awards scholarship to 28 indigent students

ShareBy Laide Akinboade, Abuja The University of Lagos Alumni Association, Federal Capital Territory (FCT), chapter on Thursday, awarded scholarship to...

NEWS1 day ago

JAMB Releases 2026 UTME Examination Slips for Candidates

ShareThe Joint Admissions and Matriculation Board (JAMB) has announced that candidates who registered for the 2026 Unified Tertiary Matriculation Examination (UTME) can now print...

SPORTS1 day ago

Lobi Stars Target Promotion to NPFL in 2026/2027 Season

ShareThe Chairman of Lobi Stars Football Club of Makurdi, Simon Ikya, said the club’s sole target is to gain promotion...

Foreign News1 day ago

Gambia Appoints British Barrister to Prosecute Gruesome Jammeh-era Crimes

ShareBritish barrister Martin Hackett has been appointed as The Gambia’s first special prosecutor to try those responsible for human rights abuses carried out...

NEWS1 day ago

Court Frees Terror Victim, Jails another 10 Years

ShareJustice Peter Lifu of the Federal High Court, Abuja, on Thursday, sentenced a Boko Haram victim, Ali Kolo, to nine years’ imprisonment...

Metro1 day ago

Lassa Fever Deaths Rise in Nigeria —NCDC

ShareThe Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (NCDC), said Lassa fever fatalities have risen sharply in 2026, in spite of a decline in...