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Analysis

Message From South Africa

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By Jude Opara


Recently, the people of South Africa rekindled their xenophobic attacks on African nationals especially Nigerians living in their country. In the latest push which perhaps is the most brutal saw the killing of three people and targeted destruction and looting of businesses of the immigrants.

Suffice it to add that this is not the first time the extrajudicial killing of foreigners in South Africa is happening.

In fact records show that in the past 10 months, about 127 Nigerians have been murdered either by the South African police or the mob at the slightest excuse.

We have heard of a number of accusations why the rising xenophobic attacks; some of them are as curious as they are confusing.

Some of the South Africans claim that the foreigners have taken over their jobs and even their women.

When that was not plausible enough, they resorted to blaming the immigrants especially Nigerians of drug peddling and other violent crimes like armed robbery.

The real issue is that there is a failure of governance in South Africa and the political class tacitly gave a veiled support to the xenophobic attacks mainly carried out by the black youths who are the worst hit by the rising economic downturn.  

During his campaign, President Cyril Ramophasa was telling his black audience that foreigners have taken over their jobs and that he will not continue to allow it if elected president and now he has been elected and the crisis is rising. Also the South African police chief told a press conference that in some parts of their country, 80% of the residents are foreigners and that they will not allow that to be.

The Zulu king, Goodwill Swelithini once described the black immigrants as lice who should be left in the sun to die off. These are some of the official actions and pronouncements that fuel the suspicion that the South African government is in full support of what they are doing.

Recall that after the first round of the well planned attacks on September 1, Nigeria began some hurried diplomatic stunts to end the crisis and part of it was to summon the South African ambassador to Nigeria. He defended his country by telling the Foreign Affairs Minister; Geoffrey Onyeama that what happened was not a xenophobic attacks but criminality.

The South African Foreign Minister, Ms Naledi Pander further gave credence to the conspiracy theory when she said they will not accede to the request of Nigeria to fully compensate the victims of these attacks. Rather she was audacious to claim that the attacks were due to the alleged crimes by Nigerians.

Now the truth is that South Africa has a criminal justice system, which means that if anybody including the foreigner commits a crime, he or she should be arrested and charged to court and whatever the court rules, so be it. There is no way the self-help approach of South Africa can pass the test of civilization.

Just as the world was hoping that the madness will stop, the South Africans still carried out another round of xenophobic attack which resulted to the death of one person with five others injured.

Now what happened to Nigerians in my view is a lesson that should help us to take a second look at our style of doing things in Nigeria. First of all, Nigeria must review her foreign policy which we usually pride that is focused on Africa.

Nigeria invested heavily to liberate South Africa from the firm clutch of the minority whites who used a heavy hand to hold the country down for so many years. But unfortunately, Nigeria never had any discussion with the South Africans of what should be in there for the country after the fall of the apartheid regime.

Most of those killing Nigerians in their country may not have been born at that time and may think that their country got their freedom on a platter of gold, hence their erroneous belief that those who are there have only decided to identify with them now that their economy is thriving.

Recall that the late South African foremost nationalist, Nelson Mandela while serving as president of his country personally encouraged black Africans especially Nigerians to come and live in his country.

Mandela had a broad view of Africa which he saw as a united gathering of black people. This is why he saw a free South Africa as a rainbow nation hence his open invitation to African people from all walks of life to come and reside in the nation.

But the seeming failure of successive South African leaders after Mandela resulted in their passing the buck to the immigrants that they have taken their jobs. We have read and heard that the South Africans especially their men do not have the zeal to struggle like most other immigrants and over time, when they begin to progress envy will begin to set in.

However, what happened in South Africa should be a clear message to us as a people that we are not doing the right thing. There is no way we can continue to do the same things over and over and still expect different results.

Also if somebody is intended in going to say Lagos from Abuja but eventually he finds himself in Jos, the reasonable thing to do is to turn and return to the road leading to Lagos. It will be foolhardy for the person to continue on the obvious wrong route simply because he has gone far.

From all indications, Nigeria has derailed from the path that she was supposed to follow, the path of old that engendered growth and prosperity, the path that encouraged healthy and virile competition among the component units of the country.

It is obvious that the seeming unitary system of government we are running today has done more harm than any good to the country and the earlier we brave it and return the country to what it used to be, the better for everybody.

Unfortunately, some people believe that the skewed system is favourable to them but the truth is that he who holds another down to the ground is equally holding himself because he has to remain at the same point to ensure that his captive stays down.

Whether we call it restructuring, true federalism or confederation, the truth remains that while it may not be a one drug that cures every ailment, it will go a long way in resolving most of the problems that have combined to make Nigeria a laughing stock in the comity of nations.

Again it must be stressed that most of the arguments against restructuring the country is coming from those who believe that they will lose out in such a system. Ironically, God in creating every nation endowed on them whatever they will use to survive. So the fear that some sections of the country will not thrive in a restructured Nigeria is a huge fallacy.

Why Nigeria appears to be stagnant is because there is no real attachment among the different segments of the country and the result is that tribalism and nepotism have become the order of the day, even in government circles. Hardly does anybody get anything on merit and the result is a country where things appear to be working upside down.

When a country is run like we are doing in Nigeria, the result is that there will be no cohesion and often times most of the best brains are forced out of the country.

While nobody is endorsing going to another man’s country to engage in criminalities, it must be stated that most of the Nigerian youths who are today involved in some of these nefarious activities were forced to do so after so many years of graduation from universities because they had nobody to support them get meaningful employment.

Another outcome of the unbalanced system is that most people especially in government circles have resorted to unbridled looting and siphoning of public funds.

Unfortunately when they loot these funds that should have been used to develop the country, they will take it abroad to buy houses and other such properties they may not even need.

What usually fuels this type of mindless stealing of public funds is because everybody sees it as a national cake that is there for the taken, nobody really cares about how to make the money because every month, states come to Abuja to share funds largely from the sale of petroleum resources.

Unfortunately, Nigerians will continue to break barriers to migrate to other countries unless we accept the bitter truth and begin a concerted effort to build a country where equity and justice will be the watch word, anything to the contrary will only produce more embarrassing situations for the country.

Analysis

The APC Beyond Buhari, By Chidi Amuta

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The APC was birthed out of Mr. Buhari’s resilient appetite for presidential power. Its victory in the 2015 presidential election satisfied that hunger and lavishly fed it for eight years. His victory then was a product of both his northern regional cultic followership and a nationwide rejection of Mr.

Jonathan’s bumbling presidency. Eight years afterwards, Buhari’s appetite for apex power has been fulfilled, richly rewarded and arguably squandered in terms of a credible legacy.
His pet nativist hegemony project came full cycle and even overreached itself. With a largely expired national relevance, Buhari has since gathered his belongings and returned to the pastoral anonymity of his native Daura.

Looking back, the coalition of parties that gave birth to the APC was an inconvenient marriage of political convenience. There was nothing in common among them. There was a pseudo social democratic CAN. There was an ultra conservative CPC literally owned by Buhari himself. There was also a nationalist right wing ANPP, and an ethno nationalist APGA. To complete the picture was a renegade and opportunistic centrist NPDP made up of a faction of governors who broke off from Jonathan’s PDP .

The cardinal objective was to cobble together a workable electoral  coalition to wrest power from the PDP after 16 monotonous years. The idea of a multiparty coalition eventually gave way to the even better idea of a single opposition party. A unified party was required to win an election if the hegemony of the PDP was to be toppled. The nation was hungry for a change from the PDP whatever the name of a viable and credible opposition.

Mr. Buhari facilitated and galvanized the marriage. He provided the amalgamation with a presidential mascot albeit one with a national name recognition and leadership mythology. He also came dressed in an untested mythic garb of leadership prowess, governance prudence, barrack discipline and a reasonable level of personal integrity and austerity. Above all, he had managed over the years to build up a huge cultic following among the northern mob of rough uneducated and unemployed youth and regional power fanatics. Part of the motor park fable around Mr. Buhari was the infantile notion that once elected president, he would jail all the corrupt former government officials, recover the ill- gotten wealth and redistribute same among the poor masses. His political salesmen required no better set of unique selling points.

Thus was born the APC, a party tailored more towards wresting power from an effete incumbent than for the effective governance of a country in desperate need for responsible leadership.  Given the tenacity of African power incumbents, the APC was more honed for the task of contesting the outcome of the 2015 presidential election possibly up to the Supreme Court. It spared little time rehearsing a governance nad leadership model for the nation. “Anything but Jonathan” was the slogan in town!

But when the results tumbled in mostly in favour of the APC and Mr. Jonathan conceded defeat to Mr. Buhari, it was an overrated and unprepared APC that had to set up a government and ascend the pinnacle of national power. Victory came as a rude surprise with power as an unanticipated burden. Time has passed. Buhari has fulfilled his long standing ambition of wearing the toga of President and gone home after completing two terms of eight wasted years . It is now time for the party to take stock of its stewardship and contemplate its future as a ruling party.

APC

With the benefit of hindsight, the emergence of the APC reinforced Nigeria’s historic tendency towards a credible two party architecture as previously recognized by the military administration of General Ibrahim Babangida. To that extent, the emergence and electoral victory of the APC as and when they occurred was a positive political outcome, one which promised a great dividend for Nigeria’s democracy and future political party architecture. The new party came to power on the wave of expectations greater than its capacity and preparedness. Even then, having successfully hounded the PDP out of power at the national level, the APC had two tasks. First, it had to develop into a party with a national membership spread, credible internal democratic structure and a definable ideology to anchor its policies on. It had a mandate to rule and to govern more creditably than the party it ousted. But beyond its logo and Buhari as electoral mascot, there was nothing substantial about the APC.

Regrettably, however, the APC has not grown beyond the logic of its incoherent origins. It has turned out to be just merely a ballot paper alternative to the PDP. After close to a decade in existence, it has no ideological identity, no policy coherence, no record of sensible governance at the federal level and state levels. Admittedly, an isolated number of APC ruled states (Kaduna and Lagos especially) have managed to show signs of some progressive policy direction and arguably a bit of good governance. But the party has hardly tried to galvanize an effective grassroots membership to consolidate over eight years of power dominance at the center.

From the very top, the APC remains an embarrassing ideological proposition and oddity. I doubt that from Mr. Tinubu to the most mundane foot soldiers out there, that  word ideology ever comes up even in casual conversations. I doubt that most of the party faithful have ever bothered about the meaning of the word “ideology”! But as a political organization, we need to dress up the APC and its leading lights in some ideological garb in order to make sense of their quarrels or at least give the party a reason to exist. As my friend George F. Will would insist, “We can dignify …disputes among small persons of little learning by connecting them with great debates about fundamental things.”

Let us therefore confront the ideological curiosity of the APC. Here is a so- called  ‘progressive’ party led by an unabashed arch- conservative in the person of former president Buhari and now a bucaneer social democrat in the person of Mr. Bola Tinubu. This is one of the greatest ironies of recent political theory and history. Ordinarily, progressivism indicates a bias for social democracy in its dynamic context. It should signal a commitment to continuous social and economic democracy and change along progressive lines. Progressivism is decidedly partisan on the side of the masses while acknowledging the entrepreneurial class as an engine of growth and wealth creation. Instead, Nigeria’s “progressives” are a loose collection of free wheeling brief case capitalists, commission agents, primitive accumulators and racketeers in every imaginable merchandize.

The party previously led by the diehard conservative Buhari is now under the wings of Bola Tinubu. He may be sympathetic towards the plight of the masses  in whose name he is mouthing incoherent policies while they bear the early brunt of his IMF-style policies. Buahri was a confused advocate of Medieval economic fundamentalism of controls and over regulation of nearly everything from domiciliation of government bank accounts to the distribution of fertilizers to peasants.

In spite of its abysmal performance in government for over eight years, the APC predictably “captured” power in the still contentious February 2023 presidential elections.  Mr. Bola Tinubu, Buhari’s effective political ‘God Father’ is now incumbent president. He has accordingly, moved to rejig the leadership of the party to serve his own power ends. He has quickly hand picked a new party Chairman in the person of the former dollar-hugging Kano governor, Mr. Ganduje . He has also ousted Mr. Omisore as party Secretary.

A preliminary view of the political calculus of the party going forward indicates an entrenchment of interest in the basic regional and sectarian equations that handed power to Mr. Tinubu. The initial changes in the leadership architecture of the party indicate a reinforcement of the South-West, North East and North Western  power base of the party. There also seems to be an incremental confidence in the effectiveness of a predominantly Muslim orientation of the  party leadership. This much can be gleaned from the initial skirmishes around the party headquarters .

In spite of its victory and electoral majority in the number of governorships and a clear parliamentary majority after the 2023 elections, however, Mr. Tinubu now recognizes that he cannot take the pre eminence of the APC for granted. He needs to strengthen the party in order to govern and also maintain a basic continuity of political authority. He cannot easily forget so easily that the pre-eminence of the party in the present political spectacle remains tenuous. The party was substantially challenged at the February 2023 election as may become more evident when the tribunal and court challenges of the outcome are concluded.  A 36% voter score of less than 8 million votes out of less than 20 million total votes cast at the presidential election out of a registered voter population of 80 million plus cannot give a ruling party comfort.

In addition, between the two opposition parties – the PDP and the Labour Party- there is enough groundswell of popular support  especially Mr. Peter Obi’s Obidients to keep the APC awake for the foreseeable future. As things stand, the APC still has an existential challenge: how does it survive in and of itself as a political party? How will it persist as a ruling party in and of itself given its regional incoherence?  Above all, how will it survive as a strategic national institution of democratic stability if its existence is dogged by far reaching but latent regional and sectarian under currents?

Even now on the eve of Mr. Tinubu’s first 100 days in office, there is a palpable fear that the future of the party is headed into turbulent clouds. A few prominent party faithful have resigned in protest to the recent leadership changes. Of course, the party could somehow tinker its way through this initial immediate post election patronage  and pork barrel stretch of the new administration. Mr. Tinubu can expect to enjoy some party solidarity and superficial unity in these honeymoon days of anticipation of patronage and appointments by party people.

Beyond the appointment of ministers, there are still numerous boards of federal parastatals, ambassadorial positions and sundry sweetheart contracts to be dispensed. But when that is over, it will be clear that the majority of party members will have been left out in the cold. They may go shopping for other party umbrellas well ahead of the next election season.

In spite of the present appearance of camaraderie, the APC cannot hide its  many headaches and underlying troubles. But in whichever direction we look, the party is threatened by internal contradictions and gaping cracks that lie deep in its very found The APC was born out of a private political ambition. It prevailed for 8 years only because it won the presidential election in 2015 against a leaderless former ruling party. Having repeated that feat in 2023 in spite of its dismal performance in government under Mr. Buhari, it is only likely to survive in power if it can transform itself from an African “Big Man” party to a broad based grassroots party. Otherwise, the future political landscape of Nigeria belongs squarely to youth based populist movements like Peter Obi’s Labour Party and its Obidients or others in that mould.  The real terminal danger for the APC is in the future fights among its many ambitious contenders for Mr. Tinubu’s throne if he falters. The even greater danger to the hegemony of the APC lies in the massive discontent of the youth followership of its opponent parties.

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Analysis

The Deceptive Tactics of IPOB

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By Emeka Jerome

All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near –Sun Tzu

In the words of the revered war strategist Sun Tzu, deception is a critical component of war execution.

Echoing Sun Tzu’s teachings, the proscribed Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) has refined the craft of deception, using a tapestry of falsehoods to advance and achieve their objectives.
This treatise will highlight how the group has continually employed deception as a weapon of war to deceive gullible members, keep the public attracted to them and deepen its presence in the south east.
No doubt, IPOB’s ascent to prominence was founded upon a bedrock of deception right from its inception. Spearheaded by Nnamdi Kanu, the emergence of IPOB was an outgrowth of the supposedly reformed Movement for the Actualization of the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB), a pro-secessionist group that had already seen its power wane and was known for its cunning activities and propensity for violence. Although IPOB came into being in 2012, Kanu had already garnered a significant following due to his inflammatory broadcasts on Radio Biafra, a responsibility he had taken on as a member of MASSOB. Recognising that the decline of MASSOB could spell the end of his influence, Kanu, aiming to secure both relevance and financial gain, intensified his facade of advocating for Biafra’s freedom.

He accomplished this by spreading propaganda against the Nigerian Government and fostering optimism among the susceptible members of the public. By rebranding and emerging as a new entity, IPOB projected an image of a fresh movement seeking self-determination while carefully avoiding associations with MASSOB’s past activities. His strategy worked because in no time, Kanu assumed command over the sphere of IPOB’s operations, rapidly ascending to its helm.

When IPOB started its brand of agitation, it was cheered on. Nnamdi Kanu became an overnight messiah. The poor vulnerable uneducated market apprentices became his ardent followers. He exploited them. Kanu adequately deployed his expertise of Radio Biafra to deceive. By broadcasting incendiary messages and misinformation, he manipulated emotions and perceptions of the public to IPOB’s advantage.

The false narratives he propagated about the Nigerian Government’s actions and intentions fuelled anger and frustration among his followers. The use of hate speech and derogatory language against Government, portraying them as oppressors and enemies of the people painted a one-sided narrative of victimhood which generated sympathy for their cause, making it difficult for their followers to critically assess the situation. By leveraging international media attention, IPOB amplified their narrative on a global scale. Sensationalized headlines and stories about their activities played into their strategy, allowing them to maintain the façade of a legitimate movement fighting for self-determination while downplaying or omitting their more radical actions.

The group while orchestrating actions that provoked responses from the Nigerian Government, created martyrs and gained international sympathy. Most of their tactics aimed to paint IPOB as a peaceful movement unjustly oppressed by a hostile government, thus diverting attention from their own aggressive activities. Ironical!

Unsurprisingly, Igbo diaspora across Europe and America began to join IPOB. Politicians back home were consulting its leader, Kanu. His house became a Mecca of sorts. Kanu got emboldened and then, combative. He became proud and dictatorial. His words were feared. He aspired by every means to be like Ojukwu, famed for his lionic roars.

Kanu had disciples. Within this newfound position, Kanu artfully manipulated the collective sentiment, leveraging deception to foment hostility towards the government under the guise of championing the elusive cause of Biafran freedom. His financial resources began to significantly swell in different hard currencies. He skillfully garnered financial support from both the rich and the poor under the ploy of rallying donations to fuel the secessionist agenda. Simultaneously, as his personal coffers grew richer, he persistently peddled false hope to his followers, deceitfully and heartlessly portraying himself as their champion in the struggle. Kanu became bolder and went ahead to establish a military Wing, the Eastern Security Network (ESN).

Operating ostensibly to counter Fulani herdsmen in the South East or so we were told, the ESN initiated a series of assaults designed to stoke the flames of ethnic conflict and destabilise the nation. Paradoxically, the reported activities of Fulani herdsmen have notably diminished, however IPOB’s actions in the region has remained persistent. 

In what initially appeared to be a child’s play in the beginning, soon transformed the South East into a breeding ground for violence, marked by a surge in assassinations, bloodshed, intimidation and various forms of mayhem. Security agencies sent to the zone to restore order became targets for annihilation. The group’s orchestrations have, indeed, in the spirit of Sun Tzu’s teachings, harnessed deception’s formidable power to its advantage. Recognising that Kanu, a Nigerian based in London and his group held the potential to plunge the country into anarchy if left unchecked, the Nigerian government took proactive steps. It proscribed the group and went a step further by extraditing Kanu back to Nigeria.

This was to ensure he faced charges for the chaos and destabilization he allegedly caused in the Southeastern region. In response, the group members protested and began issuing out senseless sit-at-home orders every Monday. Doom awaited whoever dared to come out on days meant for the so called sit-at home. Even school children were not spared.

The young and old met same fate. For each day sit at home order was enforced, millions of naira was lost. Trading, economic, educational activities were halted. The sick does not dare to go to the hospital. Regardless of the protests voiced by the local inhabitants, IPOB ruthlessly dealt with anyone who dared to defy their directives, ironically targeting the very individuals they professed to champion and liberate. Deception at the highest core! For the people, the snake they nurtured in their bosom has now turned around to bite them. 

With Kanu now in custody and facing legal proceedings, his disciple Simon Ekpa, in faraway Finland, capitalized on his mentor’s influence to achieve his own rise to prominence. Recognising the opportune moment for him to also cash out, Ekpa launched a deadlier faction called the Autopilot and afterwards the Biafra Government in Exile. He continues to give false sense of hope to liberate Biafrans while using them to swim in millions. Same as his mentor, it has now become unmistakably clear that IPOB’s motivations are primarily driven by financial gain. Under the pretext of calling for the release of Kanu, he dishes out orders to for sit-at-home, organises fundraising frequently with the false and deceptive narrative of using the money to fund ESN.

How laughable. Ekpa became more vicious. The South East is currently in a mess. Sit-at-home orders stretches for weeks with zero considerations of how it negatively affects the poor residents. Meanwhile the person issuing out the directive is doing so from the comfort of his home abroad. 

IPOB’s skillful use of deception as a strategic weapon of war becomes even more apparent when considering recent developments. They are now attempting to distance themselves from the autopilot faction of IPOB led by Simon Ekpa. IPOB is doing double speak. At one instance, it wants to distance itself from Sit-at home. At the other, it states that though it started it, Simon Ekpa is not implementing it its own way. But at least, it was Kanu and IPOB that started it. They are in agreement.

While they vehemently deny that the Eastern Security Network (ESN) engages in combative and violent activities, this assertion contradicts the evidence provided by the numerous arrests made and the ongoing campaigns carried out by the military and other security agencies. As the number of arrests increases, IPOB intensifies its efforts to disassociate itself from these individuals, seemingly attempting to detach their image from these actions.

Yet, in ironic twist, they continue to advocate for the release of these very individuals they claim not to be affiliated with. The contradictory stance of denying membership while concurrently issuing press releases about the detention of their members raises questions about the veracity of their claims. It is as if they are performing a delicate balancing act, trying to maintain an image of innocence while supporting those apprehended. 

Furthermore, Simon Ekpa’s frequent calls for a sit-at-home protest have created a conundrum for the group. In light of the public’s skepticism and widespread condemnation, they appear to be shifting blame onto Ekpa’s faction, using this as an opportunity to once again deceive the public into believing that they are the virtuous side. But it is evident as daylight that in a larger context, IPOB’s insistence on non-violence stands in stark contrast to past actions. During the EndSARS protests, Nnamdi Kanu’s directive to his followers to burn down Lagos demonstrated their potential for incitement. T

he ensuing chaos and destruction following this directive were widely observed. Their claims of nonviolence also clash with their association with the Ambazonian secessionist group in Cameroon, an entity known for its aggressive tactics.

The inconsistency is further highlighted by their clashes with the Army and Police in the South East. These confrontations raise questions about their true intentions and undermine their assertions of nonviolence.

In the face of these complex and often contradictory actions, IPOB’s manipulation of information and narratives emerges as a deliberate and sophisticated strategy to shape public perception, rally support and maintain a facade of innocence even as evidence points to a different reality.

Another strategy being deployed by IPOB is the sustained misleading narrative that all rival factions other than its own are sponsored by the Federal Government or its agencies. This claim is distorted and contradicts the evident struggle for supremacy between Kanu and Ekpa. It is important to note that Kanu broke away from MASSOB. Ekpa is only traversing a similar path. Why then is Kanu angry and propagating falsehood for the purpose of deception? At the moment, the times are not good for the IPOB. It is in dire straits and fight of its life. It is in a big struggle as its days are numbered. Sooner than later, like its predecessor Biafra-Republic-agitation-associations, will become extinct and go into oblivion. This is not a false prophesy. It is a matter of time.

Again, like the South East elite and governments, IPOB has got a wild cat for a pet and it turned to feed on it. All is not well with Kanu and IPOB. They have both crumbled and crawling. There is fire on the mountain and IPOB is in disarray. It is struggling. Kanu is in detention. His IPOB is in shatters. Disorganised.

Only vultures have surrounded him. Everything is wrong. There is leadership tussle. IPOB has broken into factions. There is Simon Ekpa autopilot. There is Chika Edozien Directorate of State (DOS). IPOB is in a big fight over its finances. Kanu’ s younger brothers want to control it. In Germany, Italy, London, France among others IPOB huge funds is at the heart of a fight. Some accounts have been blocked. Others are objects of litigation. Kanu is worried. He is losing control. There is a bigger fight among Kanu’s legal team.

No cohesion. Some feel entitled. There’s contest over who is the lead counsel. Some lawyers who never had addresses or any profitable ventures have found rest in IPOB. Some who couldn’t have won the simplest civil cases in a customary court are cashing out on IPOB and fleecing Kanu. Poor him. 

While IPOB burns, Southeast also burns. Eastern Security Network, unknown gunmen, kidnappers, hostage takers, warlords, combatants, killers, marauders, blood suckers, violent vigilantes have taken over the region. Only a reign of terror is visible. IPOB is helpless. Simon Ekpa, from far away Finland is fueling the crisis. Violently forced sit-at-home order is enforced by those IPOB struggles to deny are not its members.

In the absence of Kanu, Ekpa has tried to mimic him in voice, attitude and carriage. The kill-them-order, has accentuated. Ekpa tries to outdo Kanu. Ironically, Kanu is in denial. He and IPOB are desperately denying that Ekpa isn’t their member or working for them.

A time was when Kanu publicly called for attacks on Nigerian Soldiers and other law enforcement agents including the police. Kanu called for violent attack of fulani herdsmen. He called many Igbo politicians names. He called them Efulefu. What has Ekpa done differently? IPOB is just intelligent by half. Now, the organisation and Kanu want Monday sit-at-home cancelled but used for Economic Empowerment Day (EED) and call/march for his unconditional release. Any difference? Whether as sit-at-home or EED or call for Kanu’s release, is it not the same? Double speak!

The new plan is even more dangerous. It will bring Kanu’s faction of IPOB into confrontation with Ekpa’s. Then blood will flow. A bird that leaves the ground and perches on the anthill is still on the ground. This is an Igbo adage. Kanu claims IPOB is not responsible for the dastardly acts in the South East. But he has not denied tasking ESN to be bloody. Even now, he tries to deploy the ESN for certain accomplishments. Initially, we were told ESN was fighting Fulani herdsmen. But is that still true? We were told it was about Buhari. Is he still there?

There is another angle we are ignoring. Kanu has never denied not to have committed most of the things he is accused of. His very dull infantile defence is that he did that in the UK, a jurisdiction not covered by Nigeria. Fact is that Kanu and his cohorts have injured the South East, Ndigbo and humanity. History will not judge him right.

He may pontificate and grandstand. He may look for scapegoats and point accusing fingers to “innocent” persons and places. He has destroyed his homeland. He has destroyed Igbo culture, value and ethical discipline. Igboland is in ruins, the type never suffered during the civil war. While IPOB thinks or believes that its tactics are superb and impregnable, they are rather self-destructive. The tactics have not only impeded peace in the South East but inhibited the resolution of the crisis and perhaps, encouraged the continued incarceration of Kanu.

At the end, Ndigbo will understand the essence of the current agitation. They will understand that it is a complete ruse. It is a manipulative deception; a heist organised by some negatively ambitious young men who, in their desire to be rich, started a variant of 419/Yahoo Yahoo. It worked for them. They got the money and attention of the vulnerable. They used intimidation, harassment and fear mongering to actualise their aim.

The bone of contention among IPOB leaders is about how to keep and share the booty. The one behind the bars wants to maintain a control from detention. The money is so huge to be left in the hands of others. Kanu is voracious for money. IPOB is rich and the funds cannot just be left like that. The agitation is no longer about Biafra or Ndigbo. It is about Money, Women and Power. It is an ego fight among select narcissists.

The IPOB leaders do not want the Igbo followers to know this. It will not be good for their narrative and end goal. It will deflate the deceptive tactics. Keeping the propaganda and fake news alive is the best they can do. The deceptions work, at least, for now. But the lies will definitely die someday. There is a short span of life for lies and deceit. Sooner than later, light and knowledge will come upon Ndigbo. May that day come. And quickly too.

Emeka Jerome, writes in from Umuahia, Abia State.

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Analysis

Atiku and the PDP Rebuild Project

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By Tunde Olusunle

Two high-powered meetings within a space of eight days by the prime political opposition the Peoples’ Democratic Party, (PDP), is signal to the urgency with which the party intends to rediscover itself. After 16 years at the helm in governance, the PDP has been the odd outsider in the nation’s politics into the ninth year now.

If it was a Tsunami by the former opposition party, the All Progressives Congress, (APC) the way it shooed aside the PDP from the all-important presidential contest in 2015, the presidential elections of 2019 and 2023 have left more to be desired.
Local and international observers have been unanimous in denouncing the serial shams clothed in the improbable garbs of transparent, fair, credible and acceptable polls.
Litigations have been filed and heard by the Presidential Elections Petitions Tribunal, (PEPT).

The sitting government has publicly betrayed its apprehensions about the possible outcome of the proceedings which on the strength of evidence weighs heavily against it. It envisages that a rerun election could be in the offing. But the APC will prefer such a match up between its candidate and President, Bola Tinubu, and the runner-up as choreographed by the Independent National Electoral Commission, (INEC), the charismatic former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. The APC desires the exclusion of the second runner up in the February electoral contest Peter Obi of the Labour Party, (LP), in the event of a rerun. This is even as Nigerians hope that the judiciary will be unbiased, forthright, firm in the dispensation of justice.

After being upended at the Saturday February 25, 2023 presidential election, the PDP is attempting to pick the pieces of its organic frameworks. A meeting of the national leadership of the party early June with its parliamentarians-delegate in Bauchi at the time, has been promptly followed by two interactions in Abuja. Saturday July 29 and Saturday August 5, 2023 respectively, top level meetings were held in Abuja the nation’s capital. The earlier meeting might have been described as a “family meeting” having been convened and hosted by one of the pioneering fathers of the PDP, Tom Ikimi. Informal as it would have been described, the meeting commanded the attendance of Atiku; Ifeanyi Okowa (his running mate) and Iyorchia Ayu (former national chairman of the party). Former governors on the platform of the party notably Babangida Aliyu, (Niger); Aminu Tambuwal, (Sokoto) and Ibrahim Shekarau, (Kano), attended the meeting. 

While it is true that the number of PDP governors in the various Government Houses across the land has wilted with the 2015 onslaught of the APC, the party still boasts of at least a third of the total number of state chief executives. Umaru Fintiri, (Adamawa); Bala Mohammed, (Bauchi); Sheriff Oborevworo, (Delta); Godwin Obaseki, (Edo); Ademola Adeleke, (Osun); Caleb Mutfwang, (Plateau); Dauda Lawal, (Zamfara), attended July 29 impromptu meeting. It was intended to be a precursor to the meeting of the National Working Committee, (NWC) of the party scheduled for Monday July 31, 2023. The party needed to reassure its supporters that it was capable of a rebound. 

Ahead of the meeting, there were speculations about the possible prescription of sanctions against some erring members of the party. Top on the list of such insubordinate PDP leaders are Nyesom Wike, Okezie Ikpeazu, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, Samuel Ortom, (former governors of Rivers, Abia, Enugu and Benue), as well as Seyi Makinde of Oyo State. With Wike as rallying point, all five former governors constituted themselves into renegades against Atiku’s presidential  ticket. They coined the sobriquet *G-5,* meaning “Group of Five,” as collective label. The animus stemmed from Wike’s loss to Atiku at the PDP presidential primary in 2022 and Atiku’s non-adoption of Wike as running mate. Curiously, at least one of the quartet of these Wike governor-allies received a whooping nine-digit financial lifeline from the characteristically benevolent Atiku back in 2015, when it mattered most. He needed that infusion for the critical last push to electoral victory. It was not a loan from Atiku. Wike and company thereafter demanded the ouster of Ayu as National Chairman of the party for a southern replacement to ensure. This they said was  to ensure North – South balance between the party’s presidential flagbearer and its national chair. 

Ikpeazu, Ugwuanyi and Ortom very instructively, lost their contests to go rendezvous in the federal parliament the newfound nestling grounds for former state governors. It was a real-life reenactment of the exhortation about being restrained in hurling stones into the marketplace so as not to unwittingly inflict injuries on one’s own. Two of them, Ikpeazu and Ortom, sadly also lost the opportunity to install candidates of their own parties as their successors. Alex Otti of the LP and Hyacinth Alia of the APC won the governorship election in Abia and Benue states. Typical of post-election triumphalism against opponents in our parts, Otti and Alia have been undoing almost all that were emplaced by their predecessors, preferring militaristic rhetoric and actions. Ortom has had a date with the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, (EFCC), at the instigation of his successor. Makinde won reelection, while Wike was listed by Tinubu as a minister designate. 

Saturday August 5, 2023, governors of the party met again with the PDP presidential candidate and the leadership of the party. It was a fuller, more robust parley. Atiku and Okowa were joined by Duoye Diri, (Bayelsa); Peter Mbah, (Enugu); Kefas Agbu, (Taraba), who didn’t attend the earlier meeting. Chairman of the PDP Governors’ Forum, Bauchi’s Bala Mohammed led Fintiri, Oborevwori, Adeleke, Lawal who all attended the earlier engagement. Kingsley Chinda, (Minority Leader of the House of Representatives); Damagum; Taofeek Arapaja, (Deputy National Chairman, South); and Dan Orbih, (National Chairman, South South) were present.

Samuel Anyanwu, (National Secretary); Umar Bature, (National Organising Secretary); Ahmed Yayari, (National Treasurer); Koshoedo Setoji, (Assistant National Treasurer) and Muhammed Kadade, (National Youth Leader), participated at the event. In like manner, Bello Gwarzo, (Zonal Chairman, North West); Dakas Shan, (Zonal Chairman, North Central); Ali Odefa, (Vice Chairman, South East); Woyengikwo Daniel, (National Financial Secretary); Debo Ologunagba, (National Publicity Secretary) and Okechukwu D.O, (Auditor), participated. The meeting was akin to calling out the “battalion commanders” in the military. They would in turn charge up their groundsmen. 

Bala Mohammed read out the communique issued at the end of the meeting which emphasised party discipline and zero tolerance for anti-party activities and sabotage in whatever form. Individuals and cliques within the party will not be allowed to undermine the unity of the party and its processes. The meeting committed to the sustenance of reconciliation processes en route to the stabilisation and repositioning of the party. According to the communique, unity and loyalty remain the core values of the PDP and will continually be rewarded. All 13 governors of the party unanimously restated support for the party’s presidential candidate Atiku and his running mate Ifeanyi Okowa as they seek to retrieve the stolen mandate of the party from the PEPT. They pledged to do everything lawful to achieve this. Governors as leaders of the party in their states resolved to work with their state chapters and the national secretariat to ensure good governance, transparency and accountability. The meeting saluted the party for empanelling campaign councils for the off-season gubernatorial elections in Bayelsa, Imo and Kogi states. It charged the structures to go all out for the victory of its candidates and the party. 

Against the backdrop of the bloated bureaucracy which will flow from the bogus numbers of ministers, advisers and similar aides appointed by the President, the PDP cautioned against the aggravation of the nation’s economic travails. At the last count, Tinubu has nominated 48 ministers 45 of whom have been cleared. He had earlier received approval for the appointment of 20 advisers. The President has equally operationalised his right to appoint aides at various levels which do not require recourse for parliamentary approval. The meeting equally enjoined the President who is also the chair of the Economic Community of West African States, (ECOWAS), to explore dialogue and diplomacy in the resolution of the political impasse in neighbouring Niger Republic. He should play down every thought of military engagement against the backdrop of our internal concerns and challenges. 

Much as he has opted for a quiet role in the ongoing rebuild and reengineering processes of the PDP, Atiku’s imprimatur is dominant in his chosen backstage role. He is easily one of Nigeria’s most seasoned and most insightful politicians around who is capped with almost four decades of cumulative experience in politics. He is a foundation member of the PDP who continues to mentor upcoming conscientious politicians who are focused on politics for popular service and not politics for personal aggrandisement. It is this disposition to politics which ensures that his abode is in constant motions, comings and goings, goings and comings, by admirers,  associates and mentees alike. Objective adjudication by the PEPT on the strength of empirical, unassailable facts and evidence will further strengthen Atiku’s hands in impacting democracy, moving herefrom.

*Tunde Olusunle, PhD, poet, journalist, scholar and author is a Member of the Nigerian Guild of Editors, (NGE)*

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