Oil & Gas
Nigeria Tops W’Africa’s Crude Refining as Other Countries Stage Competition
Nigeria is expanding its crude refining footprint in the face of apparent asset acquisition and development by other countries in West Africa.
West Africa is developing into a regional refining and trading hub, backed by state authorities which aims to achieve greater refined product self-sufficiency and export capacity.
The extent of further change in 2026 will be defined by the fortunes of existing and fledgling refining projects, including Nigeria’s 650,000 barrels a at (b/d)Dangote and a clutch of smaller plants.
The Dangote refinery continues to upend regional and global refined product markets, reducing west Africa’s reliance on imports. Since Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) also called petrol production began at the refinery in September 2024, Nigeria the region’s largest petrol importer has seen net petrol imports steadily fall to a historic low of 40,000 b/d in September this year, from 332,000 b/d just a year earlier, Kpler data show.
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s net middle distillate exports hit a record 145,000 b/d in July, up from 82,000 b/d on the year, and the country has broadly been a net exporter of these products since May 2024, according to Argus media.
As a result, Nigeria and West Africa as a whole are pulling on considerably less gasoline and middle distillates such as petrol and jet fuel.
Year-to-date, the region spanning Mauritania to Angola has seen petrol imports drop by a quarter on the year to 337,000 b/d, while jet imports have collapsed to 4,000 b/d, both the lowest since at least 2016 when Kpler records began. West African petrol imports have fallen to a five-year low of 162,000 b/d.
Dangote has inarguably transformed regional oil product market dynamics, having proven robust through multiple bouts of maintenance works, and there is room for it to capture more of the domestic petrol market in the year ahead.
The same cannot be said for Nigerian state-owned NNPC’s refining assets.
The company restarted a 60,000 b/d section of the 210,000 b/d Port Harcourt refinery late in 2024 only to shut it again in May this year, while the 125,000 b/d Warri plant restarted in December 2024 before going offline the following month.
This underscores the challenges of modernizing or rehabilitating long-mothballed facilities along the West African coast.
Refiners in other West African countries are expanding their offerings to regional consumers, further eroding market share previously claimed by European traders.
Angola’s 30,000 b/d Cabinda refinery is up and running producing mainly petrol and jet fuel for the domestic market from its first phase.
This is likely to curb Angolan middle distillate import demand, with the refinery a 90:10 joint venture between UK-based Gemcorp and state-owned Sonangol — meeting 10 per cent of domestic demand.
Cabinda’s second phase will add gasoline production, but not until around 2028.
Angola imported 20,000 b/d of petrol in January-August, according to Kpler, around 40,000 b/d of diesel and gasoil, and negligible amounts of jet fuel.
In Ghana, the 45,000 b/d Tema Oil Refinery (TOR) continues works to restore nameplate capacity.
The privately-owned 120,000 b/d Sentuo Oil Refinery and the country’s smaller Platon and Akwaaba modular refineries operate sporadically. TOR’s return may be a surprise for 2026, with the operator reporting in October that turnaround activities were taking place “aimed at preparing the refinery for a safe and efficient restart”.
The refinery’s prospects look stronger than those of Ghana’s Petroleum Hub Development Corporation (PDHC), which appears to have postponed construction of the first three planned 300,000 b/d refineries since John Mahama returned to power in January for a non-consecutive second term.
The PDHC delays highlight the long lead times typical for large-scale refining projects. Dangote itself took nearly a decade to move from its first loan agreement to eventual start-up.
Other projects announced this year are unlikely to advance in 2026, making operating or near-complete refineries in Nigeria, Angola and Ghana critical for the region’s push towards a bigger role in the downstream market.
Oil & Gas
Over 2,000 PhD Candidates Jostle for PTDF Overseas Scholarship
The Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF) has commenced the second phase of interviews for the 2026/2027 PhD award under its Overseas Scholarship Scheme (OSS), targeting 2,102 PhD applicants across Nigeria.
Speaking during the screening on Monday in Abuja, Dr.
Bello Mustapha, Deputy General Manager, Education and Training, PTDF said the ongoing exercise followed the completion of MSc interviews conducted in four centres nationwide.According to him, Abuja accounts for 912 candidates, scheduled for interviews over a five-day period, out of the 2,102 shortlisted nationwide.
Mustapha said the selection process followed the Federal Character principle, ensuring that candidates compete within their respective states, with top-performing applicants emerging based on merit.
He said the number of successful candidates to be awarded scholarships would depend strictly on budgetary provisions, with final decisions to be made by PTDF management after the interview process.
The PTDF official also disclosed that while the UK remains a destination for MSc scholars, the Fund has domesticated its PhD programme through a split-site arrangement involving partner universities, with candidates spending part of their study period abroad.
“Other countries participating in the scheme include Malaysia, Germany and France.
“The fund received over 30,000 applications for both MSc and PhD programmes, from which about 5,800 candidates were shortlisted for interviews,’’ he said.
The delegation from the Federal Character Commission (FCC) was on ground to monitor the ongoing PTDF 2026/2027 Scholarship selection for fairness
During the monitoring visit, the State Coordinator of the commission, John Uchara, accompanied by the Commissioner representing Benue State, Prof. Eugene Aleba, lauded PTDF for demonstrating compliance with federal character principles in the ongoing exercise.
Uchara said the commission’s presence was to ensure transparency, equity, and balance in the process, noting that the oversight was necessary to address concerns about marginalisation and imbalance in national opportunities.
“The exercise is open to candidates from all states of the federation, reinforcing inclusiveness in the selection process.
“Our duty is to ensure that what is being done here reflects the federal character principles, to avoid complaints from any part of Nigeria.
“From what we have seen, there is serious compliance with the principles. However, the final assessment will be based on the overall intake and how well it reflects national balance,” he said.
The FCC official, while reaffirming its commitment for continuous monitoring to ensure fairness and transparency, urged PTDF to consider expanding the scope of the programme to accommodate more qualified applicants.
A panelist at the ongoing interviews, Prof. Bashir Aliyu, from Modibbo Adama University, Yola, described the quality of candidates as highly impressive, noting that the process was progressing smoothly and transparently.
“We have started the interviews very well, and the exercise is progressing smoothly with candidates demonstrating strong academic and research potential.
“The panel focuses primarily on assessing the overall quality of candidates, including their academic background, research capacity, and the relevance of their proposed PhD work to national development.
“We look at their first degree, their master’s performance, their ability, and the quality of the work they present, especially in terms of innovation, potential for patenting, and usefulness to the country,” he explained.
He said while preliminary screening such as verification of academic records and credentials had already been conducted by PTDF, the panel’s role was to evaluate the strength and originality of candidates’ PhD proposals, as well as their professional conduct and research experience.
On the integrity of the process, Aliyu disclosed that PTDF has put in place robust verification mechanisms, including document authentication and checks on publications, to ensure only credible candidates are selected.
Tanko Fwadwabea, a Chemical Engineer, said his proposed PhD research focused on process simulation for blue hydrogen production, with the goal of adding value to Nigeria’s vast natural gas resources while reducing carbon emissions.
He expressed optimism that the scholarship opportunity would enable him to realise his research ambitions and contribute meaningfully to Nigeria’s energy future.
A returning candidate, Cornelia Collins-Onoha, a geosciences-based researcher while expressing optimism said her proposed PhD study focused on the spread and persistence of antimicrobial-resistant genes in aquatic environments, particularly in communities affected by oil pollution.
“I was here in 2025 but didn’t make the final list. However, I remain hopeful that this time around it will work out. This year, the process is prompter and more structured,” she said.
Collins-Onoha expressed confidence that her research and determination would contribute meaningfully to both environmental sustainability and public health in Nigeria.
Oil & Gas
Analysts Warn Brent Crude Price Could Surge To $200 A Barrel
Analysts have warned of significant crude oil price hikes which would further erode global economic prospects.
Top grade Brent crude could surge to $200 a barrel if the Iran conflict drags on through the end of June and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to shipping traffic, Macquarie strategists warned in a note.
These fears were echoed by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who warned at an energy conference in Cairo that supply disruptions and rising prices could push oil above $200 per barrel, calling such projections realistic rather than exaggerated.
Egypt, which maintains close ties with the U.
S. and Gulf states, has condemned Iran’s attacks on Gulf Arab nations and is actively supporting diplomatic efforts to prevent a broader regional conflict.Macquarie laid out two scenarios for the oil market. In the more likely case, assigned a 60 per cent probability, the war winds down soon, prices fall relatively quickly from current levels near $108 a barrel, and the economic damage remains contained.
But in the second scenario, which Macquarie puts at a 40 per cent chance, the disruption proves far more durable, with consequences the strategists describe as historically unprecedented.
“With the global economy much less oil-intensive than 50 years ago, we would not be surprised if that would require historically high real prices ($200) for a time,” strategists led by Peter Taylor said in the note.
The scale of the supply disruption is already striking. With the Strait of Hormuz mostly closed, Macquarie estimates around 13% of global oil production will be shut in by end of March, a hit already larger than the peak seen in either of the 1970s oil shocks or the first two Gulf Wars. In 2025, the world consumed almost 105 million barrels per day of oil and products.
Emergency stockpiles held by IEA members over 1.2 billion barrels would provide some buffer, but the strategists note these can only be released slowly. Some countries in Asia are already facing physical shortages of diesel and jet fuel.
“If the Strait were to stay closed for an extended period, prices would need to move high enough to destroy an historically large amount of global oil demand,” the strategists wrote.
Should prices reach $200, the team projects that talk would quickly turn to global recession, with growth slowing by around one percentage point relative to 2025. Central banks would face a stagflationary environment with weak growth alongside elevated inflation with echoes of the 1970s.
In the U.S., the Fed would be confronted with near-zero or negative employment growth alongside rising prices, according to Macquarie.
That said, the strategists suspect a full global recession could be narrowly avoided, partly because governments would likely step in to subsidize energy costs, as several already have. Japan and Italy have already moved in that direction.
Overall, Macquarie’s base case remains a relatively swift resolution. With around 15% of global oil supply at risk of being held back indefinitely, the economic incentive to reach a deal is enormous.
“It is that reality that underpins our view that a deal must eventually be made,” the strategists said.
Oil & Gas
Sri Lanka Issues Fuel, Energy Conservation Guidelines amid Mideast Tensions
Sri Lanka has issued guidelines to government institutions on the prudent use of fuel and energy amid possible disruptions to fuel imports caused by escalating tensions in the Middle East.
The Office of the Commissioner General of Essential Services issued the guidelines to ministry secretaries, provincial and district secretaries, and heads of government and statutory institutions and called for measures to reduce fuel and electricity consumption across the public sector.
Officials have been advised to avoid using individual vehicles to commute to work and instead use public transport or group transport whenever possible, according to the office.
Government institutions have also been instructed to prepare daily transport plans to reduce the number of vehicles used for field duties.
The guidelines set out steps to conserve electricity and energy, including maximising natural lighting, reducing the use of air conditioning by relying more on electric fans, and limiting elevator use by encouraging people to take the stairs.
Local government authorities have been directed to switch off street lights during unnecessary hours and temporarily turn off street lighting in non-high-security areas as a precautionary measure, the office said.
The guidelines further encourage heads of institutions to allow staff to work remotely where technological facilities are available instead of requiring physical attendance.
The office urged all public officials to act responsibly, set an example for the public, and extend maximum support to national energy conservation and security efforts.

