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Nigeria’s Fading Economic Prospects

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By Dele Sobowale


Late British Prime Minister, Harold Wilson, 1916-1995, was the first to pronounce that “a week in politics is a long time.
That was long before the world became a smaller global village on account of the internet.

Today, any significant event occurring in any nation on earth is known all over the world within minutes.

The major international networks – Aljazeera, BBC and CNN – were broadcasting the news of the murder of Deborah in Sokoto less than three hours after the mob murder occurred.

Nobody needs to be told the image of Nigeria painted by that incident; especially, when it was placed side by side with the report of another attack on the Catholic Bishop’ s Court in the same city.

Federal Government officials who had done a good job convincing the US authorities that Christians were not under siege in Nigeria now watched helplessly as their work was being undone in less than six weeks.


A year is also now a long time in the economic prospects of any country. Decisions made or not made; investments made or not made today in any economy will have repercussions for the people for years to come – for good or ill. The mayhem in Sokoto serves as an appropriate point of departure for the discussion of our country’s economic prospects. Nigerians might not realize it, that incident could not have occurred at a worse time for us.


Globally, the Russia-Ukraine war is already causing a lot of economic re-alignment of business partners and investment/divestment decisions. It is now certain that most of Europe will reduce its trade with Russia and turn their attention to other oil and gas producers. The only oil and gas producer that might not benefit from the economic reversal of alliances is Nigeria. Investors moving away from Russia would not be so rash as to head for a nation experiencing heightened insecurity as Nigeria has become.


Furthermore, many of the long term agreements will be signed within the next one year. Three factors stand against our country right now; and none will disappear in less than a year.


First, we have an out-going government which nevertheless has until May 29, 2023 to go. Investors almost never deal with lame duck governments where long term projects are concerned. Deals would have been completed with other nations by the time a new Nigerian government takes over.

Second, to the best of my knowledge, the Buhari administration has not established a study group to look into the worldwide consequences of the war; how it will affect us and to advise the FG on how our country will escape being a major victim of the Putin War.

Third, Nigerians and our leaders appear not to be concerned about the gradual descent into economic anarchy, such as Sri Lanka is experiencing, which will make the other causes of unrest worse nationally. The announcement made by some Elder statesmen to the effect that there might be no Election in 2023 contains economic dimensions which nobody is addressing. Let me point to one example of opportunity which might be eluding us.


Nigeria Air as Metaphor for Lost Opportunities


“Procrastination is the grave in which opportunity is buried.” Brewer Stock
An Expression of Interest public announcement was published a few days ago by the Federal Ministry of Aviation with regard to the national flag carrier. As an unrepentant advocate of a national carrier, who watched helplessly as time ran out on the project, it was obvious to me that no foreigner would consider the investment now.

Even the most interested would rather wait to deal with a new government – if that government is still keen on Nigeria Air. The thousands of jobs that would have been created, the foreign exchange earned and the skills acquisition are now probably lost for good; or delayed much longer. The Buhari government has also missed out on leaving a legacy. We all lose.


Mismanaged Oil and Gas Resources


“Saudi ARAMCOM becomes world’s most valuable company; worth $2.42 trn.”
When both CNN and BBC reported this feat on the same day, I was happy for the Saudis and sorry for my country Nigeria. Saudi Arabia, despite being the largest exporter of crude oil in the world, has managed to achieve three objectives which have eluded Nigeria since oil was discovered in the two countries.

One, it very quickly ensured that its oil sector was insulated from nepotism which accompanies all political systems – from feudalism to autocracy and democracy. Corruption was minimized and severely punished. Only the brightest and the best people served to manage its divinely provided “golden egg”. Nobody will ever be allowed to crack it; not to talk of breaking it.


By contrast, Nigeria’s NNPC has been a national disgrace. At one time the Nigerian Minister of Petroleum Products was a School Certificate holder; in a country where there were already several world class petroleum engineers. Furthermore, the organization, right from the start, had been a cesspool of corruption. Successive Nigerian leaders and their cabals had treated the NNPC as their own Automatic Teller Machine, ATM. It remains that way till today.


I recently printed out the Auditor General’s report for 2019; which is the latest available. NNPC was, by far, the most indicted government agency. It had the worst record among all the Ministries, Departments and Agencies, MDAs of government. And, its Directors acted with impunity. Undoubtedly, given the history of NNPC, if Nigeria had been blessed with the Saudi’s oil reserves, we might still be languishing in poverty today. As it is, NNPC will never become the most valuable company even in Africa – given the people in charge.


Two, Saudi has ensured that oil is not only produced and exported to the limit permitted by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, they have installed enough refining capacity to supply all the needs of the people. By contrast, Nigeria now is unable to meet its own quota – on account of few operational rigs and crude oil theft. More disturbingly, we now import every single drop of finished petroleum products. And now, we pay more to import finished goods than what we earn from exports.


Three, in addition to finished petroleum products, Saudi Arabia is supplied with all the other derivatives from crude refining which Nigeria must buy. We have achieved these awful results by allowing something which an American friend and observer called “lunatic” to happen. We have allowed four refineries owned by the NNPC to stay idle for years. They contribute nothing; they guzzle billions.


I know you have heard or read most of these before. But, what you might not have read or heard before is what makes the economic future of Nigeria so bleak; as long as we continue to place our golden egg in the hands of leaders such as we have now. The same American friend who invests in oil and gas disclosed to me that no foreigner will ever build a refinery in Nigeria as long as we continue to demonstrate to them that we don’t want one. We prefer to import. The implications of that statement are grave. Without realizing it, Nigeria will be faced with a monopoly when the Dangote Refinery is completed. But, we all know that any monopoly, however benevolent, can never work in the public interest. That is the verdict of history; which we ignore at our peril.


Obviously, we have messed up our opportunity with crude oil and the way all our governments since Gowon have managed it. Buhari will leave NNPC next year worse than he found it because he and the managers of the sector have no clue regarding what to do next. The next generation of Nigerians will also join this generation as citizens of an oil producing nation living in abject poverty.
This nonsense cannot continue much longer. Mark my words.
Sobowale is an economist, newspaper columnist and public affairs commentator.

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BBNaija: But What Are We Showing The Society?

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By Idris Rufai

Big Brother Naija, popularly known as BBNaija, has become one of Nigeria’s most watched and discussed reality television programmes. Over the years, the show has attracted millions of viewers with its entertainment, competitions, relationships, parties and large cash prizes.

However, as the programme enters another season under the theme “Show Ya Sef”(Show Yourself), season 11, one question continues to bother me: What exactly are we showing ourselves, and more importantly, what are we showing the next generation?

As a young Nigerian and a student of Mass Communication, I believe entertainment should not be separated completely from responsibility.

The media has enormous power to influence the way people think, behave and perceive society. Therefore, programmes with millions of viewers should be examined not only from the perspective of entertainment but also from the perspective of their possible influence on society.

I first took time to watch BBNaija in 2020. When Olamilekan “Laycon” Agbeleshe emerged as the winner.At the time, I was curious about what attracted so many people to the programme. I initially expected a reality show that would combine entertainment with education, character development, talent discovery and positive contributions to society. However, after watching the programme on several occasions, I found myself asking what lasting values some aspects of the show were passing to viewers, particularly young people.

My concern is not that entertainment itself is wrong. People need entertainment, relaxation and programmes that allow them to escape from the pressures of everyday life. My concern is the type of entertainment being presented and the values that may be communicated through it.

One of the areas that raises concern for me is the manner in which some housemates present themselves during night and pool parties. Certain forms of dressing, dancing and other displays may be considered normal entertainment by some viewers, but others may see them as inconsistent with the moral and cultural standards expected in many Nigerian communities.

Nigeria is a country with diverse cultures, traditions and moral values. We are Africans, and our cultural heritage has historically placed importance on values such as dignity, respect, modesty and responsible behaviour. Therefore, while our media industry should evolve with changing times, it should also consider the cultural environment in which its programmes are being consumed.

The issue becomes even more important when we consider children and teenagers. Today, children can easily access smartphones, laptops and social media platforms from their homes. They do not necessarily need to sit in front of a television to encounter content from programmes such as BBNaija. Clips from reality shows can quickly circulate across social media platforms and reach children who may not even be old enough to understand the context surrounding what they are watching.

Young people are impressionable. What they repeatedly see can influence what they eventually consider normal, acceptable or desirable. This is why media regulatory bodies have a responsibility to consider the possible consequences of the content they put before the public.

Some viewers may argue that BBNaija is simply entertainment and that nobody is forced to watch it. That argument deserves consideration. Adults have the right to choose the programmes they watch. However, when a programme has such a large influence on popular culture, its producers should also recognise that its impact can extend beyond the individual viewer.

There is also the question of what happens after the show. The winner receives a substantial financial reward and other prizes, while contestants gain popularity and social media influence. But beyond the money, fame and entertainment, what positive legacy does the programme leave for society?

Could reality television in Nigeria do more to promote entrepreneurship, education, creativity, leadership, talent development, community service and responsible citizenship? Could contestants be challenged to develop businesses, solve community problems, promote Nigerian culture or participate in educational and social initiatives while still providing the entertainment audiences enjoy?

I believe it is possible.This is not a call for the complete cancellation of BBNaija or other reality television programmes. Rather, it is a call for responsible entertainment. The Nigerian entertainment industry is capable of producing programmes that are exciting and commercially successful while still promoting values that contribute positively to society.

Regulatory bodies also have an important role to play. They should continue to ensure that broadcast content complies with established broadcasting standards and protects vulnerable audiences, particularly children, also have a role in guiding children on what they watch and helping them understand the difference between entertainment and acceptable real life behaviour.

As we embrace modern entertainment, we should not allow the pursuit of ratings, popularity, money and fame to completely overshadow our cultural and moral responsibilities.

The theme “Show Yourself” therefore gives us an opportunity to ask a deeper question: What kind of self are we encouraging young Nigerians to show?

Are we showing creativity, intelligence, entrepreneurship, leadership, talent and cultural pride? Or are we increasingly celebrating behaviour simply because it attracts attention?

BBNaija has the platform and influence to do more. Its millions of viewers represent an enormous opportunity to entertain while also inspiring, educating and empowering young people.

We should not reject entertainment, but we should demand better entertainment.

We should not reject modern culture, but we should preserve the values that define us.

And above all, as we tell young people to “show yourself,” we must also ask them, and those who create the content they consume, what exactly are we showing the next generation?.

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Reconsidering The Rash Dismantling of Nigeria’s 6-3-3-4 System

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From one policy flip-flop to another, the Federal Government of Nigeria has scrapped the 6-3-3-4 system of education, which it introduced with fanfare over four decades ago. In its place is now a linear 12-year schooling from primary to the end of secondary education.

Under the old arrangement, six years were for primary schooling, three years for junior secondary school, another three years for senior secondary schooling, and a minimum of four years of university education.

The Minister of Education, Tunji Alausa, on 1 July, said the transition from JSS 3 to SSS 1 presented a quagmire to the country.

“We have 20 million dropouts from primary school to Junior Secondary School. Where are the students? We found out that we have 80,000 public primaries and about 15,000 Junior Secondary schools. That is a ratio of one-to-eight,” he stated.

Education is a public asset, whose overhaul – when it becomes imperative – requires a broad and rigorous debate in the best interest of society. But the Nigerian government failed to do so; just as it recently did in the restructuring of the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) scheme, which sparked strong public criticism.

Education is still on the Concurrent Legislative List in the 1999 Constitution, as amended, depicting the shared responsibility of the federal and state governments for it. Besides, the private sector is heavily involved in all its levels.

The discarded 6-3-3-4 arrangement was introduced in 1982, following its formulation in 1977, after a serious national discourse. The school curriculum was changed and tailored to pre-career paths and labour demands. This was evident in the introduction of technical and business subjects like Technical Drawing, Computer Science, Fishery and Animal Husbandry.

Also, Marketing, Horticulture, Introductory Technology, Creative Arts, Entrepreneurship, Data Processing and Interior Decoration, which competed for students’ interests alongside the core subjects of Mathematics, Physics, Chemistry, Biology, Geography, Fine Arts, Agricultural science, Government, English language and English Literature.

In 2025, the Federal Ministry of Education and the Nigerian Educational Research and Development Council (NERDC) sensed an overload of the classroom with subjects and decided on reducing them. Therefore, the JSS classes had their subjects reduced to 12, from 18; while subjects in the SSS classes were slashed from 20 to 9.

The idea behind Junior and Senior Secondary Schools was for the system to fish out pupils with less cognitive abilities in academics.

These set of pupils, unable to continue with senior secondary schooling, were to be guided through counselling towards the acquisition of vocational skills, according to their abilities. Passing the JSS level was a prerequisite for transiting to the SSS level.

For Mr Alausa to lay the blame for Nigeria’s 20 million out-of-school students at the feet of the failure of the 6-3-3-4 system is to be disingenuous and economical with the truth. The fact is that the high level of insecurity, especially in the northern part of the country, dearth of teachers, dilapidated school infrastructure, poverty and cultural practices that encourage the early marriages of girls before the age of 18, significantly contribute to and sustain the anomaly.

Data published by the ICIR recently showed that 26 schools were attacked by insurgents and kidnappers between April 2024 and May 2026, resulting in the kidnap of 2,416 students for ransom. Inside the Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camps in Borno, Benue, Plateau and other states, are children of school age. Some traumatised Chibok school girls, abducted in 2014, vowed after their rescue never to go back to school. Other victims with the same harrowing experience in other places, have developed a similar aversion to schooling mindset.

It is not surprising “that three out of four children at the basic education level cannot read or understand an age-appropriate text by the age of 10”, as the minister lamented. Many states in Nigeria also don’t accord education the priority it deserves.

This is evident in the ₦97.88 billion Universal Basic Education Commission (UBEC) funds laying idle, as of 18 March, 2026, as states refused to apply for them towards revamping their basic education systems. This would require the states to provide their own 50 per cent counterpart funding to qualify for the funds. Only 21 states have been able to access these funds till date.

As a result, UNESCO warns that “Nigeria risks a “generational catastrophe” if foundational investments are not made in education in the country. This is the core of the problem. Many state governments have refused to invest sufficiently in the educational sector.

The former Executive Secretary of UBEC, Hamid Bobboyi, during a 2024 workshop with the Private Sector Advisory Group, said that out of 694,078 teachers required, only 499,202 were available, thus leaving a deficit of 194,876 teachers in our basic schools across the country. To save the schools from total closure, Parents Teachers Association (PTA) in most host communities now resort to hiring and paying teachers.

In some cases, classes One and Two are merged for a teacher to handle. Many of the pupils try to learn sitting on the bare floor, while the teachers themselves have no writing tables. These absurdities are not acceptable, amid thousands of jobless NCE holders and graduates across the country.

According to a stakeholder, “Right now, the problem of primary and post-primary education in Nigeria is not restructuring, it is the provision of a better learning environment, laboratories, infrastructure, and qualified teachers, among others.”

The minister needs to be told in simple terms that the 6-3-3-4 system, in itself, did not fail. Only the government did with its inadequate financing and implementation of the system. With the absence of technical equipment, workshops, electricity, and trained teachers/other personnel required for its implementation, it could be argued that the system never really took off.

A policy somersault like this was why History was removed as a subject from the school curriculum, until recently when the public clamour for its return became impossible to ignore.

Also, the government almost fell into a considerable blunder with last week’s increase of WASC and NECO registration fees to ₦50,000, without consultations. Political expediency must have informed the quick retraction of that decision, at least for now.

All matters educational are apparently too sensitive to be left in the hands of politicians alone. Government should desist from policies that have not been properly thought through, which have the capacity to set the country back in a major way, particularly in terms of powering its future. In order to attain the desired outcomes, education requires serious, sustained investments, not cosmetic restructuring.

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When Murder Allegations Trail a Public Official: The Case for Temporary Recusal

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By Isaac Asabor

Public office is built on one indispensable currency: trust. The authority exercised by elected and appointed officials derives not from personal privilege but from the confidence reposed in them by the people.

It is for this reason that whenever a public official becomes the subject of a grave criminal allegation, particularly one as weighty as murder, the question should not merely be whether they are guilty or innocent.
Rather, the more immediate question should be whether they can continue to discharge the responsibilities of office without compromising public confidence in the institution they represent.

In recent times, allegations linking public office holders to violent crimes, including murder, have generated widespread public outrage in Nigeria. Whether such allegations ultimately result in conviction or acquittal is a matter for the courts. Yet the ethical and moral burden they place on public office is immediate. When an official remains in office while battling allegations of involvement in the unlawful taking of human life, the credibility of governance itself comes under scrutiny.

This is why temporary recusal should be regarded not as an admission of guilt but as an honourable demonstration of respect for due process and the sanctity of public institutions.

Unlike allegations of administrative misconduct, murder accusations strike at the very foundation of a person’s moral authority to govern. Society rightly expects those entrusted with public power to uphold the law, protect lives and inspire confidence. When they themselves become subjects of investigations or prosecutions relating to homicide, continuing to wield state authority inevitably creates a perception of conflict between personal interest and public duty.

This is especially true in Nigeria, where public confidence in institutions is already fragile. The continued occupation of office by an official facing such grave allegations creates an unavoidable impression that political influence may be deployed to frustrate investigations, intimidate witnesses, manipulate evidence or interfere with the administration of justice. Even where none of these occur, the perception alone is damaging enough.

Supporters of embattled officials often invoke the constitutional principle that every accused person is presumed innocent until proven guilty. They are correct, but only within the context of criminal adjudication. The presumption of innocence is a legal safeguard against wrongful conviction; it is not an ethical licence to continue exercising public authority under circumstances that erode public trust.

Temporary recusal does not negate constitutional rights. It neither convicts nor punishes the accused. Rather, it protects both the integrity of the office and the fairness of the judicial process. Indeed, stepping aside may even strengthen public confidence that investigations and prosecutions will proceed without undue influence.

The distinction between legal innocence and political accountability is one many democracies have long embraced. Across numerous established democracies, ministers and senior officials voluntarily resign or temporarily relinquish office over allegations that are significantly less severe than murder. They do so not because they are legally compelled to, but because they recognize that public confidence is as important as legal vindication.

Nigeria, unfortunately, has struggled to cultivate this culture of accountability. Public officials often remain in office despite facing serious criminal allegations, while insisting that only a final conviction can justify their exit. Such reasoning misunderstands the nature of democratic governance.

An official accused of murder occupies a uniquely sensitive position. Such an individual may still possess enormous political influence, command loyal subordinates and retain access to state resources. These realities, whether actually exploited or not, naturally fuel public suspicion regarding the impartiality of ongoing investigations.

The situation becomes even more troubling where enforcement agencies fall within the administrative influence of the government law or where political relationships create perceptions of undue interference. In such circumstances, remaining in office risks undermining both the actual and perceived independence of the justice system.

Equally important is the practical reality that defending oneself against a murder allegation is an all-consuming undertaking. Court appearances, consultations with legal counsel, media scrutiny and political pressure inevitably divert attention from governance. Decisions that ought to be guided solely by public interest may become coloured by considerations of personal legal survival.

Government suffers when its leaders become preoccupied with defending themselves against allegations carrying the possibility of life imprisonment or even capital punishment under applicable laws. Ministries, agencies and public institutions cannot function optimally when those at the helm are simultaneously engaged in high-stakes criminal defence.

Some argue that requiring temporary recusal whenever murder allegations arise could encourage politically motivated accusations intended to force officials from office. This concern deserves careful consideration, but it is not an argument against recusal itself. Rather, it underscores the need for a clear threshold.

Temporary recusal should not be triggered by rumours, social media speculation or frivolous petitions. It should become appropriate only where allegations have progressed beyond mere accusation to formal criminal investigation, arraignment, or prosecution supported by credible evidence presented before a competent court. Such a standard protects both the rights of the accused and the integrity of public institutions.

The distinction is crucial. Democracy cannot permit malicious accusations to become political weapons. At the same time, it cannot permit holders of public office to remain insulated from ethical accountability simply because criminal proceedings have not yet concluded.

Leadership demands more than legal compliance; it requires moral judgment. History remembers not only those who were acquitted or convicted but also those who understood when the dignity of office required personal sacrifice.

Temporary recusal should therefore be viewed as an act of statesmanship rather than weakness. It communicates confidence in the judicial process. It assures citizens that no individual is greater than the institution they serve. Most importantly, it preserves the credibility of the government while allowing justice to take its course without unnecessary distractions or allegations of interference.

Nigeria’s democratic journey depends not merely on stronger laws but on stronger conventions. Constitutional provisions alone cannot produce accountable governance. Political culture must evolve to embrace the principle that preserving public trust sometimes requires personal sacrifice.

When murder allegations trail a public official, the stakes extend beyond the fate of one individual. They concern the credibility of public institutions, the confidence of citizens and the integrity of democratic governance itself.

Stepping aside temporarily is therefore not a declaration of guilt. It is a declaration that the office belongs to the people, not its occupant.

A public official who voluntarily recused themselves while the law takes its course demonstrates confidence in both their innocence and the justice system. By contrast, one who clings to office despite the cloud of a grave criminal allegation risks conveying an altogether different message, that preserving personal power is more important than preserving public trust.

Ultimately, democracy asks its leaders to be custodians, not owners, of public authority. Temporary recusal in the face of credible murder allegations is one of the clearest expressions of that custodianship. It protects institutions, reassures citizens and reinforces the timeless principle that while no one is above the law, neither should anyone be above the ethical responsibilities that accompany public office.

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