By David Torough, Abuja

Fuel prices across Nigeria have surged close to the N1,000 per litre mark, triggering concern among motorists and businesses, as regulators attribute the development to market forces while energy experts warn that global tensions could push prices even higher.

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) said fluctuations in the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), popularly known as petrol, were the result of supply and demand dynamics under the country’s fully deregulated downstream petroleum sector.

Speaking in Abuja, the authority’s spokesperson, George Ene-Ita, said variations in fuel prices across retail outlets were not due to regulatory interference but reflected prevailing market conditions.

According to him, Nigeria has been operating a fully deregulated petroleum products market since the inception of the current administration, allowing market forces to determine pricing.

“Pump price vagaries are purely as a result of market dynamics,” Ene-Ita said, adding that deregulation was designed to encourage competition, efficiency and increased investment in the downstream oil and gas sector.

Across several cities, petrol prices have risen sharply in recent days. While the product previously sold between about N875 and N880 per litre in some locations, independent marketers now sell it for between N960 and N1,000 per litre or more. Stations operated by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) have also adjusted prices to around N960 per litre in many outlets.

In Lagos, checks showed prices ranging between about N1,005 and N1,040 per litre at different filling stations, with motorists scrambling to secure supplies amid fears of further increases.

Energy experts say the rising prices are largely driven by developments in the global oil market, particularly the recent surge in crude oil prices linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, said the cost of crude oil remains the most critical factor influencing petrol prices.

He explained that global crude prices had jumped from about 65 dollars per barrel to nearly 92 dollars within a short period, raising the cost of refined petroleum products worldwide.

Yusuf noted that even domestic refineries were affected because crude oil used for refining was typically priced at international market benchmarks.

He added that although the Dangote Refinery is located in Nigeria, a significant portion of the crude it processes is sourced externally, making it vulnerable to global price volatility.

“About 70 per cent or more of the crude used by the refinery is sourced externally,” he said.

Despite the rising prices, Yusuf said the refinery had improved Nigeria’s energy security by stabilising supply and reducing the likelihood of the fuel shortages and long queues that once plagued the country.

“If we did not have the Dangote Refinery, the situation would likely have been much worse. Petrol could be selling for about N1,500 per litre or more,” he said.

Similarly, energy policy expert Prof. Ken Ife said Africa’s heavy dependence on imported petroleum products continued to expose the continent to global price shocks.

He said Nigeria currently had about 445,000 barrels of crude allocated for domestic refining but stressed that local refineries still required more consistent crude supply to operate at optimal capacity.

The National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), Dr Billy Gillis-Harry, also warned that escalating tensions around the strategic Strait of Hormuz were pushing global petroleum prices upward.

He explained that the maritime corridor accounts for nearly 30 per cent of global crude shipments and that persistent attacks and hostilities in the region pose significant risks to global energy supply chains.

According to him, before the crisis escalated petrol sold at about N774 per litre, but prices have since climbed to between N950 and N970 per litre, while diesel has risen sharply from about N950 to nearly N1,400 per litre.

He warned that if geopolitical tensions persist, petrol prices could approach N1,500 per litre while diesel may exceed N2,000 per litre, with severe implications for transportation, manufacturing and inflation.

Economic analyst Dr Chijioke Ekechukwu urged the Federal Government to mitigate the impact by supplying crude oil to local refineries at subsidised rates.

He said such a policy would allow refineries to produce and sell petroleum products locally at relatively stable prices while the country continues exporting crude oil at international market rates.

Ekechukwu also called for stricter enforcement of domestic crude supply obligations and tighter border controls to curb the smuggling of refined petroleum products to neighbouring countries.

According to him, strengthening local refining and safeguarding domestic supply will help shield Nigerian consumers from sudden price shocks in the global energy market.

Experts agree that until global oil prices stabilise and geopolitical tensions ease, Nigerians may have to contend with continued volatility in fuel prices.

The Women in Energy Network (WIEN) has called for urgent structural reforms in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry to remove systemic barriers limiting women’s participation across workforce, leadership, and enterprise ownership.

According to the Network, women account for 18.

2 per cent of Nigeria’s energy workforce and 25. 6 per cent of leadership roles and that despite over 35,000 companies active on the JQS platform, less than 2 per cent are women-owned.

They also informed that women represent only 17 per cent of current STEM enrolments, signaling a constrained future technical pipeline.

The Network noted that a US$40 million Women in Energy Fund, supported through the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB) and the Nigerian Export-Import Bank (NEXIM), remains underutilized not due to lack of capable women-owned businesses, but due to limited access to bankable contract opportunities.

The WIEN explained that the current procurement structure effectively requires companies to demonstrate asset ownership and technical capacity before accessing contracts — creating a circular constraint for emerging firms:

“This is not a social issue. It is a structural and strategic issue,” the Network emphasized. “Nigeria cannot achieve its energy security objectives while half of its population remains underutilized.”

WIEN also highlighted the need for stronger representation of women at board level, noting that governance diversity improves capital allocation, risk oversight, and long-term sector resilience.

In addition, the Network stressed the urgency of strengthening the STEM pipeline for young women through targeted internships, mentorship programs, and industry-backed exposure initiatives.

WIEN reaffirmed that Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) in Nigeria’s energy sector is not tokenism or entitlement, but a strategic imperative tied to capital formation, competitiveness, and long-term energy security.

NIPCO Gas Limited and the NNPC Gas Marketing Limited are expanding gas infrastructure projects across the South Western part of Nigeria, aiming to boost industrial and commercial economic growth of the region.

Both parties have consolidated gas supply agreements that will further expand adoption of gas as alternative energy sources for commercial activities.

NIPCO Gas, the major driver of the energy supply chain has outlined an expansion strategy spanning pipeline infrastructure, city gas distribution networks and nationwide Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) rollout, positioning itself at the forefront of Nigeria’s domestic gas drive under the reform framework of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).

The Managing Director of the company, Nagendra Verma, while speaking in the ongoing projects across the South West and other parts of the country, described natural gas as central to energy security, industrial competitiveness and macroeconomic stability in the post-subsidy era.

He said Nigeria’s energy landscape is undergoing structural transformation driven by regulatory clarity introduced by the PIA and renewed government emphasis on domestic gas utilisation.

Verma, the improved governance framework and issuance of gas distribution licences have strengthened investor confidence across the oil and gas value chain, encouraging long-term infrastructure commitments.

With fuel subsidy removal and fiscal restructuring reshaping the downstream market, gas is increasingly being positioned as a stabilising alternative to imported fuels, reducing exposure to global price volatility while supporting manufacturing and commercial activity.

According to him, NIPCO Gas is constructing an 18-inch, 80-kilometre natural gas pipeline from Sagamu to Ibadan.

The project, scheduled for completion between June and July 2026, is expected to significantly boost gas availability to industries in Ogun and Oyo states as well as adjoining areas.

The MD noted that the infrastructure will reduce energy costs for manufacturers currently dependent on alternative fuels such as diesel and low-pour fuel oil, improve production efficiency and strengthen the competitiveness of Southwest industrial clusters.

Given the strategic importance of the pipeline to regional industrialisation and national energy security, NIPCO Gas called for sustained cooperation from federal and state authorities to ensure seamless delivery.

Beyond Ibadan, he said the company is extending gas distribution infrastructure from Sagamu to Abeokuta, also in Ogun State, as part of efforts to deepen gas penetration in the Southwest.

According to him, the Abeokuta expansion is expected to attract fresh manufacturing investments, enhance reliability of energy supply to existing businesses and strengthen internally generated revenue within the state. The project, he said, has received backing from the Ogun State Government, reflecting alignment between public policy and private sector infrastructure deploymentHe added NIPCO Gas has developed gas distribution infrastructure within the Lekki Free Trade Zone, reinforcing energy access for industries operating in the fast-growing economic corridor.

“The Lekki axis has emerged as a major hub for export-oriented and heavy industrial investments, and reliable gas supply is considered critical to sustaining operations, lowering production costs and maintaining competitiveness.

By strengthening energy reliability in the zone, the company said it is contributing to Lagos State’s position as a leading industrial and commercial centre”.

In alignment with the Federal Government’s clean energy and post-subsidy transport reform agenda, Verma said NIPCO Gas, in joint venture with NGML, is constructing 20 additional CNG stations across Nigeria.

“In addition, CNG mother stations located in Lekki and Ore are at advanced stages of completion. These facilities will function as primary compression and dispatch hubs, supplying daughter stations and industrial customers through a mother–daughter network model, particularly in areas not directly connected to pipeline infrastructure.

The nationwide rollout is strategically targeted at high-traffic urban centres and major transport corridors, improving accessibility and affordability of CNG for fleet operators, mass transit systems, commercial drivers and private vehicle owners,’’.

According to him, all facilities are being developed in compliance with Nigerian regulatory standards and international safety best practices.

Beyond fuel substitution, he stressed that the expansion is expected to stimulate job creation across construction, operations and ancillary mobility services, lower transportation costs, reduce carbon emissions and improve air quality in major cities.

The NIPCO Gas boss said its sustained investments in trunk pipelines, city gas networks and CNG infrastructure are designed to strengthen national energy security, promote domestic gas utilisation and support Nigeria’s broader economic diversification agenda.

The company emphasised that transparency and stakeholder engagement remain central to its operations, noting that collaboration with regulators, sub-national governments and the media will be critical in sustaining momentum within the gas sector.