OPINION
Tinubu’s Bitter Pills, Nigeria and the Ides of May 29
By Eddy Ochigbo
The maxim that in politics, there are no permanent friends or enemies – only permanent interests – was re-enforced on Wednesday, May 3, 2023 in Port Harcourt the Rivers state capital, at the inauguration of Rumuokwuta/Rumuola Flyover Bridge, when a smiling president-elect, Bola Amed Tinubu sat side by side with out-going governor of the state, Nyesome Wike.
Wike, a top notcher of the People’s Democratic Party and at some point widely acclaimed to be the sole financier of the PDP – the leading opposition party – is now hobnobbing and dancing with the leader of the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC).
The question on the lips of bewildered Nigerians is: has Wike, who once described the APC as cancerous, cross-carpeted to the APC? Whether or not Wike’s political game plan would fetch him his heart desire in the murky waters of the current political dispensation remains to be seen. But Wike’s present romance with APC is a matter for another day.The bone of contention in this piece is the social contract between president-elect, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who is expected to take to the turf as President Buhari’s successor come May 29, 2023. And given the enormous and gargantuan tasks before the incoming administration to restore the confidence of Nigerians by retrieving the country from the woods, following the damage done by the outgoing administration, Tinubu’s victory is extremely unenviable.
With a rising debt stock which has increasingly become a huge burden on Nigeria in the face of dwindling revenue and the unsustainable subsidy payments, the incoming administration must adopt measures to increase the country’s revenue, tackle corruption and perhaps borrow from cheaper sources to cushion Nigeria’s debt portfolio.
Recent statistics reveal poor performance and mounting government costs, making it evident that Nigeria is going through unprecedented debt crisis. Therefore, apart from other daunting challenges bedeviling the country, the huge debt remains the biggest task before the incoming government. The Buhari administration which came with the mantra of fighting corruption, reviving the economy and fighting insecurity, unfortunately, did the opposite, taking the country down the drain into bankruptcy.
The results of this negative trend is that the country is now home to about 133 million multidimensionally poor people, 37.7per cent of the citizens are unemployed as at 2022. This is estimated to rise further to 40.6 per cent in 2023, with nearly 25 million Nigerians said to be at risk of hunger between June and August of 2023. This is compounded by the rising public debt of N46.25 trillion and according to the Debt Management Office (DMO) by the time the incoming administration is sworn-in, a whooping N77 trillion debt will be awaiting it.
Worse still, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that debt servicing may gulp 100 per cent of the federal government’s revenue by 2026 if the government fails to implement adequate measures to improve revenue generation and provide critical infrastructure and amenities like healthcare services, education, power, roads and security, otherwise revenue will keep shrinking.
Another regrettable trend, is Nigeria’s fraudulent leadership recruitment process, the anti-climax of which was the 2023 general elections especially the Adamawa gubernatorial supplementary election. There is no better word to describe the treasonable action of the Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC), Hudu Yunusa Ari, accompanied by senior security officers, and the unfortunate and dramatic acceptance speech by the candidate of the All Progressive Congress APC, Senator Aisha Dahiru Binani, other than a failed civilian coup d’etat. Outside the nagging varied manifestation of insecurity across the country, this can be ranked among the top threats to our wobbling democracy since the beginning of the fourth republic.
This is a coup d’etat for the single reason that a group of non-state and state actors conspired to go against section 1, sub-section 2, of the 1999 Constitution and the provision of the 2022 Election Act to capture power with the cover of high ranking security officers. To give this in proper context, it is a coup d’etat – “a seizure and removal of a government and its powers”. Typically, it is an illegal seizure of power by a political faction.
This reminds us of the dark days of our political history, which was littered with both successful and failed military coup d’etat, not without the active connivance of civilian politicians and foreign backers. The first coup d’etat in Nigeria was in January, 1966, followed by a counter coup in July 1966, others were in 1975, 1983, 1985 and 1993. In between there were two failed coups in 1976 and 1990 and a number of high profile serving and former military officers at different times were arrested and imprisoned for alleged coup plotting. To this end, Nigeria is yet to recover from the post traumatic impact of the coup d’etas and the resultant authoritarian rule that followed.
The difference this time around is that the failed coup d’etat in the supplementary gubernatorial elections in Adamawa was led by civil politicians with the backing of uniform men. This goes to show that our politicians have learnt a lot in the art and science of coup d’etat from their military friends. Except for the unpretentious way the machiavellian drama in Adamawa played out, it is safe to say that since the return of democracy, the politicians have been carrying out coup de tats through rigging. They have always employed extra-legal means to usurp the electorate’s right of choice and mandate by conniving with electoral and security officials and using violence, vote-buying, ballot box snatching and stuffing among others.
The inordinate ambition of many of politicians has turned elections into a do or die affair. They have instituted a system which has made elections a zerosome game, with the winner taking all, while the loser is left to scavenge till the next election. Greedy politicians have reduced governance to personal interest rather than public service. And as long as governance remains a private enterprise for primitive accumulation of wealth and dividends only reaped by families, friends, aides and associates to the detriment of the mandate givers, so long will the country continue to grope in the dark.This has unfortunately provided the motivation for heightened desperation to capture power at all cost, including killing innocent persons.
In recognition that the process that brought many of them to office lack legitimacy, they feel no obligation to consult or be accountable to the electorate in the governance process. No wonder, we have a lot of wealthy men without any productive enterprise contributing to the economy, except that they serve as fronts to elected and appointed public officials in siphoning public funds mostly through inflated contracts, backdoor deals and money laundering.
The embattled REC who plotted a failed coup in Adamawa, could not have attempted to go against the constitution arrogantly without the backing from above as senior security officers accompanied him to the scene, thereby making mockery of the legacy of those who sacrificed their lives for the enthronement of democracy in the country. Even now, it is not enough to arrest the REC, but to demonstrate to Nigerians that the failed coup d’etat was not an elite conspiracy by actors in government. Backers of such show of shame must be immediately fished out and prosecuted.
It is commendable that the incumbent governor and Governor-elect, of Adamawa State, Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri, has publicly stated that he will push for the prosecution of the REC, since the foiled coup happened under his jurisdiction. However, this must go beyond political rhetorics. This heinous crime against the Nigerian people and assault on the constitution should not be swept under the carpet, like many others before it.
Nigerians must realize that there is a correlation between how a leader emerges and the quality or otherwise of governance he or she will deliver. A leader that usurps the people’s mandate will see himself as an emperor that the people should serve. Introduction of more technology, reforms or amendment of the Electoral Act will not be enough to sanitize our electoral process. Therefore, declaring election rigging a treasonable felony will be a major deterrent to desperate politicians.
Equally important is the need to drastically reduce the cost of governance, improve fiscal transparency and accountability as well as public monitoring of the procurement process. This will remove the incentive that feeds the desperation for the political elite to capture power.
Given Nigeria’s current woes and with barely a month to the inauguration of a new administration, a good number of Nigerians and keen watchers have expressed apprehension about what lies ahead. These fears owe much to the troubling economic crisis facing the country, exacerbated by high rate of unemployment and rising cost of living.
Yet, the planned removal of fuel subsidy looms large. However, supporters and sympathizers of the president-elect argue that there is nothing to fear because according to them, the President-elect Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu possesses the magic wand to turn things around, given his antecedents in Lagos as a two-term governor. Posterity would indeed hold this man of the moment, Tinubu, in high esteem if he reverses the dwindling fortunes of Nigeria and give the suffering masses a renewed hope and a meaning.
By Mukhtar Ya’u Madobi
As Nigeria continues to battle worsening security challenges — ranging from banditry and kidnapping to terrorism, insurgency, and communal violence — citizens across the country are increasingly embracing grassroots security measures and calls for self-defence.
These challenges are not confined to the North. In the South, militancy, piracy, secessionist agitations, cultism, and cybercrimes further complicate the nation’s fragile security landscape. Speaking at the maiden annual lecture of the National Association of the Institute for Security Studies, themed “Mobilising Stakeholders to Curb Insecurity in Nigeria: A Practical Approach,” the Director-General of the State Security Service (SSS), Oluwatosin Ajayi, stressed the need for communities to take greater responsibility for their own security. He cited examples where local populations had historically repelled insurgents and urged communities to work closely with security agencies to counter threats such as terrorism, banditry, and kidnapping.Ajayi noted that it is unrealistic to expect security agencies to protect every citizen across Nigeria’s expansive territory. He argued that communities must serve as the first line of defence, and that empowering them would enhance grassroots resilience, while reducing over-reliance on federal forces.Echoing this position, former Chief of Defence Staff, General TY Danjuma (rtd), recently renewed his longstanding call for Nigerians to rise in self-defence against non-state actors. Reacting to fresh waves of violence in Plateau, Benue, and other states, Danjuma insisted that citizens can no longer afford to remain passive while bandits and terrorists wreak havoc.“The warning I gave years ago remains valid. Nigerians must rise and defend themselves. The government alone cannot protect us,” he said.This message of self-defence has increasingly resonated across vulnerable communities, reflecting the harsh reality of an overstretched security system that leaves millions exposed. The roots of the crisis lie in decades of state neglect, porous borders, weak intelligence systems, and economic exclusion.In the North-West, states such as Zamfara, Katsina, and Kaduna are under the siege of bandits, who raid villages, rustle livestock, extort ransoms, and impose levies. In the North-Central region, particularly Plateau and Benue states, farmer-herder conflicts have morphed into sustained ethno-religious violence. The South-East contends with secessionist violence linked to IPOB/ESN elements, who often target security infrastructure. Meanwhile, the South-West and South-South struggle with cultism, ritual killings, and piracy.One chilling episode was the abduction of more than 280 schoolchildren in Kuriga, Kaduna State, in March 2024. Although the children were eventually rescued, the incident laid bare the glaring weaknesses in Nigeria’s security infrastructure and left the community traumatised.Faced with these realities, several states have begun taking their destinies into their hands. In April, the Kano State Government passed the Security Neighbourhood Watch Law to create a legal framework for community-led security efforts. Katsina has trained local vigilantes through its Community Watch Corps, while in Zamfara, Governor Dauda Lawal launched the Community Protection Guards (CPG), a controversial but welcomed initiative in rural areas long neglected by formal forces.In the North-East, the Civilian Joint Task Force (CJTF) continues to support military efforts against Boko Haram, leveraging local knowledge and swift response capabilities. The Amotekun Corps in the South-West, headquartered in Ondo State, has addressed critical security gaps in the region, earning both criticism and praise. Similarly, the South-East’s Ebube Agu and joint regional outfits in the South-South emerged from the growing public distrust in the federal government’s ability to guarantee safety.However, the growing wave of self-defence and vigilante initiatives raises ethical, legal, and practical concerns. Nigeria’s Firearms Act prohibits civilians from bearing arms without a licence. Without a clear regulatory framework, arming civilians risks escalating violence, enabling political thuggery, and creating new security threats under the guise of protection.These dangers are not hypothetical. In Edo State’s Uromi community, vigilantes wrongfully accused 16 Northern hunters of being kidnappers and burnt them alive. In July 2022, Ebube Agu operatives reportedly killed 14 unarmed wedding guests in Otulu, Imo State. Other vigilante groups in the region have been implicated in extrajudicial killings and abuses. A Daily Trust investigation in April revealed that vigilante groups killed at least 68 people in three months, with many more subjected to torture, harassment, or unlawful detention.These developments have prompted the House of Representatives Committee on Army to call for the regulation, oversight, and training of vigilante groups. The Uromi killings, in particular, triggered national outrage and renewed demands for accountability.Responding to these concerns, Major General Chris Olukolade (rtd), chairman of the Centre for Crisis Communication, acknowledged General Danjuma’s fears but cautioned against unregulated civilian self-defence. He warned that unless communities are engaged within a structured and legal framework, insecurity may only worsen. According to him, civilians should not be armed unless integrated into formal security systems with clear guidelines.Against this backdrop, community policing has emerged as a more sustainable and coordinated alternative. Under the leadership of the Inspector General of Police, pilot schemes have been launched across several states. These involve recruiting and training locals for surveillance, intelligence gathering, and early intervention, followed by their integration into existing police structures.Lagos, Ekiti, and Kano States have all recorded notable progress. In Kano, the Hisbah Corps, initially tasked with moral enforcement, has been reoriented to contribute to broader urban security. In Lagos, the Neighbourhood Safety Corps plays a vital role in gathering intelligence and issuing early warnings.Nonetheless, community policing faces serious limitations. Funding shortfalls, inter-agency rivalries, and a lack of coordination continue to undermine its effectiveness. A major stumbling block is the constitutional contradiction where state governors are designated as chief security officers but lack control over federal police operations within their jurisdictions.Solving Nigeria’s security crisis requires a comprehensive strategy that addresses institutional, legal, and socio-economic issues. First, the constitution must be amended to empower state and community policing structures with defined jurisdictions and robust oversight. Second, vigilante and self-defence groups must be trained, regulated, and integrated into the formal security architecture to avoid becoming a threat themselves. Third, intelligence gathering should begin at the grassroots, where community members are often the first to notice early warning signs. Fourth, addressing the root causes of insecurity — such as unemployment, poverty, and youth disenfranchisement — through investments in education, job creation, and social empowerment is essential. Lastly, traditional and religious leaders must be given formal roles in mediation, peacebuilding, and community-based conflict resolution, given their influence and trust within local populations.Nigeria’s security challenges demand more than rhetoric and reactive responses. While the instinct to defend oneself is natural in the face of government failure, unregulated self-defence is a risky and unsustainable path. The lasting solution lies in creating a decentralised, community-driven security model rooted in legality, ethics, and shared responsibility.As communities across the country face mounting threats, the question is no longer whether to adopt localised security strategies — but how best to coordinate, empower, and regulate them before chaos becomes the norm.Mukhtar Ya’u Madobi is a research fellow at the Centre for Crisis Communication. He can be reached via ymukhtar944@gmail.com.
By Tunde Akanni
It’s been traumatic for my entire family since that video started making the rounds. I sneaked a slight view… It’s our trial. It’s my trial. Oloyede is genuine. He is most sincere. He is modestly so, as well. For us, however, Allah knows best.
I was with a trader in the afternoon of what I considered a dark Wednesday, the 14th of May. “Se bi won ni JAMB o get mo bayi…”. I had to cut in immediately. Which JAMB? “Madam, that’s one person I will vouch, and vouch for…zero tolerance for corruption. Absolutely responsible with a high level of consciousness for the good of others. If certain things went wrong at JAMB, I agree it’s his responsibility to carry all pleasant and other burdens but just know that the bad side of the operations may as well be sabotage. I have absolute trust in that man. Ask my own colleagues about me, but Oloyede is my own hero, somebody I have known for more than 40 years…”This is by no means a reductionist disposition to the tragedy induced by the so-called computer glitch. May the Almighty God in His infinite mercy console the parents of the candidate reported to have committed suicide. May God strengthen them to survive this gloomy phase of their lives and sustain them to reap bountiful compensation that will endure in their lives. It’s hard, so hard to pull tragedies of this magnitude. I personally feel for these parents.The said computer glitch, may we never fall victim to it. Those who work for big organisations requiring a large layout of ICT operations know what I’m talking about. Rather than being ‘solutional’, IT facilities can be unimaginably problematic sometimes, yet indispensable in this civilisational dispensation. This is not doubting deliberate sabotage, as may have happened in the case of JAMB. I’ve been part of Oloyede’s JAMB journey to attest to his commitment to offer his best for the otherwise sinking board.Far from being cosmetically exhibitionist, the Oloyede-led JAMB team, led by the Education minister, Tunji Alausa, went round the critical facilities of JAMB during the just concluded examination. Alausa saw, firsthand, like never before elsewhere in this country, how far JAMB had gone in its strive for transparency and the real-time monitoring of the conduct of examinations nationwide. Alausa, beyond being in awe, sought to make the JAMB effect spread immediately to other examination bodies.No be dem say, same day, the WAEC team came to JAMB and made it into the situation room, which was my own duty post. The NECO team followed suit afterwards, both duly led around by the sturdy lead IT consultant who’s been reliably there from Oloyede’s assumption of duty, Damilola Bamiro. Far richer, given that they charge more for their exams, the duo of WAEC and NECO were suddenly mandated to understudy the examination sector leader in Africa that JAMB has become over time.The staff of both WAEC and NECO suddenly had to undertake a professional excursion led through all the real time monitoring screens and other digital facilities. It was obvious they marvelled at what they saw, revealing a functional leader-subordinate synergy manifest with trendy output that the world can see and learn from.But that may even seem like the tip of the iceberg of the output of the hard work and commitment of the nation’s foremost icon of integrity in public service. A series of far more seemingly serious strides had been accomplished by Oloyede at JAMB. As a focused scholar, he keeps ensuring that every bit of the experience of the Board is treasured as worthy data to guide future actions and even subjects for further research.Not even the agencies dedicated to emergency matters in Nigeria could have been as prompt as the Oloyede management on this ugly glitch saga. Once the complainants began ventilating into the public space, JAMB rose to the challenge without any predictably traditional arrogant stance of government is always right. I was aware that a particularly strident public critic and a former students’ leader at Obafemi Awolowo University, Adeola Soetan commended the spokesperson for JAMB for the excellent handling of public complaints.Promptly, an independent team of investigators was set up to unravel the mystery leading to the rather depressing situation that now confronts us. The team, drawn from assorted but technically relevant constituencies, has found out that no fewer than 165 centres of over 800 examination centres nationwide were affected.Obviously well prepared for whatever the outcome may turn out to be, he braced up to the challenge to embrace the surrender value to tell it to the world as it is. This trial is for all of us who believe and trust Oloyede. I am in this group. So much so that his public cry infected me…It was a patriot’s cry for his beloved country. Like me, a former Law don at LASU, Dr Kilani wasn’t any less affected as demonstrated in a quick note to me: “I write to associate myself with the pain, sorrow and emotion of our own Professor Oloyede. I could not hold my tears seeing him cry. May Almighty Allah see him through. May we all not be put to shame…”But then came a soothing message from Gbade Osunsoko, my cousin: “…He will come out of this much stronger because Nigerians will trust him far better than a number of our leaders.. A man that makes mistakes happens under him and takes responsibility – it’s a big deal in Nigeria.”With Oloyede, young Nigerians with challenges regarding sight are no longer left to moan their fate endlessly, with adequate provision for their inclusion in the UTME. How many of our public facilities are this inclusion conscious as stipulated by SDGs? How come a legacy built through almost a decade at the very best cost ever possible will be made to crumble when the game changer leader remains ever modest? JAMB has steadily risen through thick and thin to accomplish its tasks to the admiration of stakeholders, nationally and internationally, under Oloyede. Both NNPC and the Nigeria Police, being beneficiaries, can attest to the current competence of JAMB. How many other numerous stakeholders nationwide never deemed to have any relevance to JAMB before Oloyede but have since become critical, if not indispensable players?But why does this sudden saddening encounter threaten our joy of service without blemish? Why this unforeseen truncation of a good story, so intentional, coming from Africa? Whodunnit? Surely the truth shall come out for the world to perceive and assess and get to appreciate the efforts and the quantum of commitment appropriated to the JAMB excellence project driven by Oloyede.One cannot but be deeply concerned. Before the very eyes of a few of us carefully selected to give support from our respective professional perspectives from the very beginning, Professor Oloyede’s concern for genuine growth and development was real. It is still real and increasingly so, as a matter of fact. Indeed, inimitable. It shall be well.Tunde Akanni is a professor of Journalism and Development Communications at the Lagos State University, LASU. Follow him on X:@AkintundeAkanni
By Kator Ifyalem
Democracy, often hailed as the cornerstone of modern governance, is a system that empowers citizens to participate in the decision-making processes that shape their lives. However, the mere existence of elections is not enough to ensure a fair, just, and prosperous society.
Without robust institutions, the rule of law, and ingrained values, democracy can become a hollow shell, susceptible to corruption, manipulation, and eventual collapse. At its core, democracy is built on the principle that power resides with the people. This power is exercised through fair elections, where citizens choose representatives to govern on their behalf. The effectiveness of this system relies heavily on the strength of supporting institutions, adherence to the rule of law, and shared values that guide societal behaviour.Institutions serve as the backbone of a democratic society, translating the will of the people into action. These include governmental bodies such as the legislature, executive, and judiciary, as well as independent organizations like electoral commissions, anti-corruption agencies, and human rights commissions. These institutions provide checks and balances, ensuring that no single entity or individual can accumulate too much power. They create a framework for accountability, transparency, and effective governance.An independent judiciary is crucial for upholding the constitution and protecting individual rights. Without it, laws can be manipulated or ignored by those in power, leading to tyranny. Similarly, a free and independent media acts as a watchdog, informing citizens and holding those in power accountable. When media institutions are weakened or controlled by vested interests, the flow of information is compromised, and citizens are unable to make informed decisions.The rule of law is another critical component of a functioning democracy. It ensures that all citizens, regardless of their status or position, are subject to the same laws and legal processes. This principle is fundamental to creating a fair and just society where everyone’s rights are protected. A robust legal framework, consistently and fairly enforced, provides the predictability and security necessary for social and economic development. It protects property rights, enforces contracts, and creates an environment conducive to investment and growth.Moreover, the rule of law is essential for protecting minority rights and preventing the tyranny of the majority. In a true democracy, the rights of all citizens must be respected, even if they are not part of the ruling majority. This protection is enshrined in laws and enforced through effective legal institutions.Values form the third pillar of an effective democracy. These shared beliefs and principles guide societal behaviour and inform policy-making. Democratic values include respect for human rights, tolerance of diversity, commitment to justice, and belief in the equality of all citizens. When these values are deeply ingrained, they act as a safeguard against authoritarian tendencies and help preserve the integrity of democratic institutions.For instance, a healthy democracy can be likened to a three-legged stool, where institutions, the rule of law, and democratic values form the legs. Just as a stool cannot stand stably without all three legs being strong and balanced, a democracy cannot function effectively if any of these elements is weak or missing. In Nigeria’s case, we’ve seen how weaknesses in one area, such as institutional challenges in election management, can put stress on the other legs, requiring the judiciary (rule of law) and civil society (democratic values) to bear more weight to maintain stability.Education plays a crucial role in instilling these values. A well-informed citizenry, aware of their rights and responsibilities, is better equipped to participate meaningfully in the democratic process. Civic education programs that teach the principles of democracy, the importance of institutions, and the value of the rule of law are essential for creating engaged and responsible citizens.The interplay between institutions, the rule of law, and values creates a self-reinforcing cycle that strengthens democracy. However, this cycle can also work in reverse. Weak institutions often lead to a breakdown in the rule of law, eroding democratic values and further weakening the system. This negative spiral will ultimately lead to the collapse of governance, even if the outward trappings of democracy remain.To prevent this decline, concerted effort is required on multiple fronts. Institutional capacity must be built and maintained through adequate funding, training, and support. The rule of law must be consistently enforced, with mechanisms in place to address corruption and abuse of power. This requires not only strong legal frameworks but also a commitment to their implementation.International cooperation also plays a role in strengthening democracy. Countries learn from each other’s experiences, share best practices, and provide support for development. However, it’s crucial to recognize that democracy cannot be imposed from outside; it must be nurtured from within.True democracy requires more than just the act of voting; it demands a comprehensive system of governance that respects the rights of all citizens, upholds justice, and promotes the common good. Strengthening these fundamental pillars (institutions, the rule of law, and values), is crucial in building more resilient, effective, and truly representative democracies that serve the needs of all citizens and contribute to global stability and prosperity. Where does Nigeria as a nation stand on this scale?
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