BUSINESS
World Needs More Policy Ambition, Private Funds, Innovation to Meet Climate Goals
By Simon Black, Florence Jaumotte, and Prasad Ananthakrishnan
With each passing year, the stark reality of a hotter planet becomes clearer and the ensuing risks to the global economy intensify. But as the world is waking up to the scale of the climate crisis, geopolitical tensions and fragmentation risks are undermining our ability to coordinate global actions to solve this planetary problem.
Eight years on from the Paris Agreement, policies remain insufficient to stabilize temperatures and avoid the worst effects of climate change.
Collectively, we are not cutting emissions fast enough and are falling short on the needed investment, financing, and technology. The window is closing, but we still have time—just—to change our trajectory and leave a healthy, vibrant, and livable planet to the next generation.Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees to 2 degrees Celsius and reaching net zero by 2050 requires cutting carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases by 25 percent to 50 percent by 2030 compared with 2019. But, as our new analysis shows, the current global commitments reflected in nationally determined contributions would reduce emissions by just 11 percent by the end of this decade.
To make matters worse, current policies are not consistent with commitments, which means that the world is set to fall short of even that meager goal. Business-as-usual policies would see annual global emissions increase by 4 percent by 2030 and reach a cumulative level sufficient to breach the 1.5-degree target by 2035.
More ambition, stronger policies
To get back on track with the global climate goals, we need more ambition now. A fair approach is for countries to target cuts in emissions in line with per capita incomes.
For example, to keep within 2 degrees of warming, high, upper-middle, lower-middle, and low-income countries will need emissions reductions of 39 percent, 30 percent, 8 percent and 8 percent, respectively, by 2030. To stay below 1.5 degrees of warming would entail more drastic emissions cuts of 60 percent and 51 percent for high- and upper-middle income countries.
Ambition alone is not enough. We also need major policy changes to achieve these more ambitious targets. These would ideally be centered on a robust carbon price—rising to a global average of at least $85 per ton by 2030—to provide broad incentives to reduce carbon-intensive energy, shift to cleaner sources, and invest in green technologies.
A carbon price also generates more than enough budget revenues to support vulnerable groups. Around 20 percent of carbon pricing revenues can more than compensate the poorest 30 percent of households. This is in direct contrast to damaging fossil fuel subsidies, which have risen to a record $1.3 trillion annually in explicit fiscal costs alone. Countries must act to phase out such subsidies.
At a global level, cooperation is needed to help assuage fears that carbon pricing would hurt national economic competitiveness. Here, an agreement among large emitters could spur other countries to follow—such as a progressive deal between China, the European Union, India, and the United States. This would cover over 60 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions and send a strong signal to the rest of the world.
Boosting climate finance
The path to net zero by 2050 requires low-carbon investments to rise from $900 billion in 2020 to $5 trillion annually by 2030. Of this figure, emerging and developing countries (EMDEs) need $2 trillion annually, a fivefold increase from 2020. Even if advanced economies meet or somewhat exceed their promise to provide $100 billion a year, the bulk of the financing for these low-carbon investments will need to come from the private sector.
Our analysis shows that private sector share of climate finance must rise from 40 percent to 90 percent of the total in EMDEs by 2030. That means a broad mix of policies to overcome barriers such as foreign exchange and policy risks, underdeveloped capital markets, and too few investable projects.
For example, targeted economic policies and governance reforms can lower capital costs. Meanwhile, blended finance that combines private capital with public and donor funding—including from multilateral development banks—can bring down the risk profile of green projects. Think of first-loss capital, credit enhancements, or guarantees.
At the same time, global policies to increase transparency and comparability of projects, standardize taxonomies and strengthen climate-related disclosure requirements are vital in helping investors make low-carbon choices. Again, this highlights the importance of international cooperation.
Scaling up innovation
Of the 50 percent cut to emissions needed by 2030 to stay on track for the 1.5-degree target, more than 80 percent can be achieved from technologies available today. Getting to net-zero by 2050 will, however, require technologies that are still under development or yet to be invented.
Unfortunately, patent filings for low-carbon technology peaked at 10 percent of total filings in 2010 and have since declined. Worse, key technologies aren’t spreading fast enough to emerging and developing countries.
How can this trend be reversed? Recent IMF analysis shows climate policies—such as feed-in tariffs and emissions trading schemes—boost green innovation and investment flows, and help spread low carbon technology across borders. Moreover, in some countries, lowering trade barriers can accelerate imports of low carbon technologies by 20 percent to 30 percent. Yet again this points to the importance of cooperation: to avoid protectionist measures that would impede the broader spread of low-carbon technologies.
Helping countries meet goals
Wherever climate policy intersects with macroeconomic policy, the IMF is here to help. Our new Resilience and Sustainability Trust provides long-term financing on affordable terms to help vulnerable middle- and low-income countries cope with threats such as climate change. The $40 billion trust has already supported programs for 11 countries, with twice that number in the pipeline.
For our wider membership, we add a climate lens to our economic analysis, policy advice, capacity development and data provision. Why? Because macroeconomic and financial sector policies are critical to harnessing the opportunities of the green transition: for low-carbon, resilient growth, and jobs.
But no country can tackle climate change on its own. International cooperation is more important than ever. Only with concerted action, now, will we bequeath a healthy planet to our children and grandchildren.
From Ayinde Akintade, Osogbo
The National President of Association of Mobile Phone and Allied Products Traders of Nigeria (AMPAT), Hon. Musa Mamsa, has attributed the mobile phone and allied products sector as one of the strongest pillars of modern commerce, driving communication, digital trade, financial inclusion, and security.
Mamsa, who described the group as a crucial link to the sustainability of the digital economy, disclosed this in Osogbo during the inauguration of the Osun State Chapter executives of the association.
According to him, the group is not just contributing to the gross domestic product of the country but also a major employer of youths across the country.
He described the traders, technicians, distributors, and innovators in the sector as the major contributors to society.
“The mobile phone and allied products sector has become one of the strongest pillars of commerce in modern society. From communication to digital trade, from financial inclusion to security, mobile technology drives the engine of today’s world,” he said.
Mamsa commended the Osun Chapter for its resilience and unity despite past challenges, including the global pandemic.
He urged the newly inaugurated executives to uphold the association’s constitution, protect members’ welfare, work in harmony with government agencies, security institutions, and community leaders, and promote peace among traders.
Mamsa also appreciated the Osun State Government for supporting business communities and expressed readiness to partner with authorities to promote peace, economic development, and technological empowerment.
In his address, the newly inaugurated chairman, Oseni Taofeek, promised to place members’ welfare at the centre of his administration while strengthening unity and promoting growth within the association.
While thanking members of AMPAT for the opportunity to serve, Taofeek said, “We will tackle challenges, seize opportunities, and work tirelessly to promote trade and commerce.”
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By Tony Obiechina, Abuja
Nigeria’s total merchandise trade increased to N38.9 trillion in the third quarter of 2025, reflecting positive momentum in the nation’s import-export performance even in the face of global economic uncertainties.
The latest ‘Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics Q3 2025’ report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released on Thursday indicated that the Q3 merchandize trade value grew by 8.
71% year-on-year from the N35. 8 trillion recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024 but 2.36% rise compared to the N38.04 trillion value recorded in Q2, 2025.In the quarter under review, the trade data showed that exports accounted for 58.
59% of total trade with a value of N22.8 trillion, showing an increase of 11.08% over the N20.54 trillion value recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024, and by 0.28% compared to the N22.75 trillion value recorded in Q2, this yearAccording to the NBS, crude oil remained Nigeria’s dominant export commodity in Q3 2025, with a value of N12.81 trillion, representing 56.14% of total exports for Q3 2025.
The import-export trade reflected that non-crude oil exports totalled N10.01 trillion, accounting for 43.86% of total exports, and in this category, non-oil products contributed N2.9 trillion, or 13.14% of total exports.
A further analysis of the merchandize trade data in the quarter under review revealed that agricultural produce exports amounted to N786.62 billion, reflecting an 11.69% decline from N890.72 billion in Q3 2024 and a 37.39% drop compared to N1.26 trillion in Q2 2025, while Raw material exports were valued at N1.04 trillion, representing a 136.38% increase from N439.82 billion in Q3 2024 and a 26.83% rise compared to N819.72 billion recorded in the preceding quarter.
Also, Solid mineral exports amounted to N100.81 billion, showing a 29.75% increase from N77.70 billion in Q3 2024 and an additional 30.41% growth from N77.31 billion reported in the preceding quarter.
The data further showed that the value of manufactured goods exports stood at N978.53 billion, reflecting a 6.03% decline from N1.04 trillion in Q3 2024. However, compared to Q2 2025, the Q3 2025 value represented a 21.74% increase over the N803.81 billion recorded in the previous quarter.
The statistics agency reported that Exports of other oil products in Q3 2025 totalled N7.01 trillion, showing 51.72% rise from N4.62 trillion in Q3 2024, but dipping by 9.42% from the N7.74 trillion recorded in Q2 2025.
Overall, the exports data for Q3 2025 reflected a mixed performance across sectors, with strong gains in raw materials and solid minerals contrasting declines in agricultural exports and some oil-related categories.
On the import side, the data showed that Imports accounted for 41.41% of Nigeria’s total trade in the quarter under review, peaking at N16.12 trillion and representing 5.51% increase from the N15.28 trillion recorded in Q3 2024, and 5.47% rise compared to N15.29 trillion in the preceding quarter.
Despite the growth in imports, Nigeria maintained a positive merchandise trade balance in Q3 2025.
Specifically, the NBS reported that the nation’s trade surplus stood at N6.69 trillion, but represented 10.36% decline from the N7.46 trillion recorded in Q2 2025, due to the faster pace of import growth relative to exports.
On the merchandise trade based on the countries traded with, the NBS data showed that on the import side, China remained Nigeria’s leading trading partner in Q3 2025, followed by the United States, India, the United Arab Emirates, and Belgium.
According to the data, the most imported commodities during the quarter included petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals (crude), gas oil, premium motor spirit (petrol), durum wheat, and cane sugar intended for sugar refining.
On the export side, Nigeria’s top five trading partners were India, Spain, France, the Netherlands, and Italy. The major commodities exported to the countries during the quarter under review comprised crude oil, natural gas, other petroleum gases in a gaseous state, kerosene-type jet fuel, and urea, whether or not in aqueous solution.
Analysts believe that the trade surplus recorded by Nigeria during the quarter was reflective of the improving performance of the economy as the government continued to consolidate on the modest achievements of the nation’s monetary and fiscal policy reforms.
For instance, they maintained that the higher trade volumes pointed to improved production levels, stronger demand for Nigerian commodities, and greater activity at the ports while the increase in total exports demonstrated the resilience in the country’s main revenue-generating sectors.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has launched a major overhaul of the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund (ACGSF), unveiling a new strategic direction aimed at expanding credit access to smallholder farmers and accelerating national food security efforts.
Speaking in Abuja at the inauguration of the reconstituted ACGSF Board, CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, described the revamp as “a new dawn” for agricultural financing.
He said the initiative reflects the Federal Government’s renewed commitment to reposition agriculture as a driver of inclusive growth, rural development, and economic diversification.Cardoso noted that the ACGSF-established in 1977-remains one of the country’s most impactful development finance tools.
Yet, despite employing nearly two-thirds of Nigeria’s labour force and contributing over 20 per cent to GDP, the agric sector continues to receive less than five per cent of total bank credit. This structural mismatch, he said, has stunted the potential of millions of farmers for decades.The CBN governor stressed that the agricultural landscape has evolved far beyond subsistence farming, now governed by integrated value chains, technology, climate risks and a growing agritech ecosystem. In line with these realities, he said the Scheme must transform into a dynamic, data-driven institution capable of supporting modern agriculture.
He highlighted the 2019 amendment that expanded the Scheme’s share capital from N3 billion to N50 billion and broadened its operational scope. One of the notable enhancements, he added, is the inclusion of farmers’ representatives on the new Board-an “inclusive and strategic” move to ensure policies are grounded in real sector needs.
Cardoso emphasised that the central objective of the revamp is to unlock affordable credit for smallholders who account for 90 per cent of the nation’s agricultural output but remain underserved due to limited collateral, poor credit history and weak access to financial services.
He urged the Board, chaired by Dr. Olusegun Oshin, to design products tailored to women, youth and other underserved groups while leveraging fintechs, microfinance banks and cooperatives to deliver innovative lending models. He also called for the deployment of technology-from satellite imagery to digital dashboards-to track loan utilisation and ensure measurable impact.
Dr. Oshin welcomed the reforms and advocated further expansion of the Fund to meet the scale of investment required for meaningful sectoral transformation.
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