BUSINESS
World Needs More Policy Ambition, Private Funds, Innovation to Meet Climate Goals
By Simon Black, Florence Jaumotte, and Prasad Ananthakrishnan
With each passing year, the stark reality of a hotter planet becomes clearer and the ensuing risks to the global economy intensify. But as the world is waking up to the scale of the climate crisis, geopolitical tensions and fragmentation risks are undermining our ability to coordinate global actions to solve this planetary problem.
Eight years on from the Paris Agreement, policies remain insufficient to stabilize temperatures and avoid the worst effects of climate change.
Collectively, we are not cutting emissions fast enough and are falling short on the needed investment, financing, and technology. The window is closing, but we still have time—just—to change our trajectory and leave a healthy, vibrant, and livable planet to the next generation.Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees to 2 degrees Celsius and reaching net zero by 2050 requires cutting carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases by 25 percent to 50 percent by 2030 compared with 2019. But, as our new analysis shows, the current global commitments reflected in nationally determined contributions would reduce emissions by just 11 percent by the end of this decade.
To make matters worse, current policies are not consistent with commitments, which means that the world is set to fall short of even that meager goal. Business-as-usual policies would see annual global emissions increase by 4 percent by 2030 and reach a cumulative level sufficient to breach the 1.5-degree target by 2035.
More ambition, stronger policies
To get back on track with the global climate goals, we need more ambition now. A fair approach is for countries to target cuts in emissions in line with per capita incomes.
For example, to keep within 2 degrees of warming, high, upper-middle, lower-middle, and low-income countries will need emissions reductions of 39 percent, 30 percent, 8 percent and 8 percent, respectively, by 2030. To stay below 1.5 degrees of warming would entail more drastic emissions cuts of 60 percent and 51 percent for high- and upper-middle income countries.
Ambition alone is not enough. We also need major policy changes to achieve these more ambitious targets. These would ideally be centered on a robust carbon price—rising to a global average of at least $85 per ton by 2030—to provide broad incentives to reduce carbon-intensive energy, shift to cleaner sources, and invest in green technologies.
A carbon price also generates more than enough budget revenues to support vulnerable groups. Around 20 percent of carbon pricing revenues can more than compensate the poorest 30 percent of households. This is in direct contrast to damaging fossil fuel subsidies, which have risen to a record $1.3 trillion annually in explicit fiscal costs alone. Countries must act to phase out such subsidies.
At a global level, cooperation is needed to help assuage fears that carbon pricing would hurt national economic competitiveness. Here, an agreement among large emitters could spur other countries to follow—such as a progressive deal between China, the European Union, India, and the United States. This would cover over 60 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions and send a strong signal to the rest of the world.
Boosting climate finance
The path to net zero by 2050 requires low-carbon investments to rise from $900 billion in 2020 to $5 trillion annually by 2030. Of this figure, emerging and developing countries (EMDEs) need $2 trillion annually, a fivefold increase from 2020. Even if advanced economies meet or somewhat exceed their promise to provide $100 billion a year, the bulk of the financing for these low-carbon investments will need to come from the private sector.
Our analysis shows that private sector share of climate finance must rise from 40 percent to 90 percent of the total in EMDEs by 2030. That means a broad mix of policies to overcome barriers such as foreign exchange and policy risks, underdeveloped capital markets, and too few investable projects.
For example, targeted economic policies and governance reforms can lower capital costs. Meanwhile, blended finance that combines private capital with public and donor funding—including from multilateral development banks—can bring down the risk profile of green projects. Think of first-loss capital, credit enhancements, or guarantees.
At the same time, global policies to increase transparency and comparability of projects, standardize taxonomies and strengthen climate-related disclosure requirements are vital in helping investors make low-carbon choices. Again, this highlights the importance of international cooperation.
Scaling up innovation
Of the 50 percent cut to emissions needed by 2030 to stay on track for the 1.5-degree target, more than 80 percent can be achieved from technologies available today. Getting to net-zero by 2050 will, however, require technologies that are still under development or yet to be invented.
Unfortunately, patent filings for low-carbon technology peaked at 10 percent of total filings in 2010 and have since declined. Worse, key technologies aren’t spreading fast enough to emerging and developing countries.
How can this trend be reversed? Recent IMF analysis shows climate policies—such as feed-in tariffs and emissions trading schemes—boost green innovation and investment flows, and help spread low carbon technology across borders. Moreover, in some countries, lowering trade barriers can accelerate imports of low carbon technologies by 20 percent to 30 percent. Yet again this points to the importance of cooperation: to avoid protectionist measures that would impede the broader spread of low-carbon technologies.
Helping countries meet goals
Wherever climate policy intersects with macroeconomic policy, the IMF is here to help. Our new Resilience and Sustainability Trust provides long-term financing on affordable terms to help vulnerable middle- and low-income countries cope with threats such as climate change. The $40 billion trust has already supported programs for 11 countries, with twice that number in the pipeline.
For our wider membership, we add a climate lens to our economic analysis, policy advice, capacity development and data provision. Why? Because macroeconomic and financial sector policies are critical to harnessing the opportunities of the green transition: for low-carbon, resilient growth, and jobs.
But no country can tackle climate change on its own. International cooperation is more important than ever. Only with concerted action, now, will we bequeath a healthy planet to our children and grandchildren.
BUSINESS
Finance Ministry Blames NNPCL for Failure to Answer $3b, $722m NEITI Queries
By Eze Okechukwu, Abuja
The Federal Ministry of Finance has heaped blames on the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) over its inability to answer queries raised against it in the 2021 to 2023 Oil and Gas Sector Audit report by the Nigeria Extractive Industry Transparency Initiative (NEITI), saying the Oil Company could not make available the necessary financial records it would have used to respond to the queries.
Declaring this yesterday during an interrogation by the Senate Committee on Public Accounts at the National Assembly following several financial infractions raised against the Ministry in the NEITI audit findings, the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry, Raymond Omachi said that if the Nigeria National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) had availed them the documents, he would have been in a better position to answer the questions with ease.
However, one of the infractions contained in the report was the pre – export financing for $3billion loan taken in 2012 to settle subsidy payment which according to NEITI, the recovery of the loan from monthly Federation revenue proceeds under pre -export financing and project eagle agreement remained unclear.
Another query raised against the Ministry by NEITI was that “In 2021, the sum of $722.6 million was paid to NNPC by Nigeria Liquified Natural Gas (NLNG) as dividend and interest earned by the federation but was neither remitted to the federation account nor properly accounted for.
In the report also, NEITI observed that in 2021 none of the refineries was operational despite N200 billion spent on them. The ministry couldn’t answer it and couldn’t also give a clean bill to the $221.283million overhead costs incurred by NAPIMS in 2021.
In his response to the queries , the Permanent Secretary said the Ministry was not directly involved in all the dealings or transactions and that the agencies involved, particularly the NNPCL has refused to cooperate with it in terms of accurate records.
“We don’t have direct involvement in all the issues raised and required provision of financial records from the affected agencies, particularly NNPCL, NUPRC etc but we couldn’t get them.
“In resolving the financial issues, we have engaged a reputable external audit firm; Arthur Andersen LLP, to carry out a forensic audit on all the transactions for the required reconciliation “, he said.
But the Committee chaired by Senator Ibrahim Hassan Dankwabo (Gombe North) took him up on when the report on the forensic audit would be ready after extending it twice; 6 months to one year but he insisted that NNPCL and NUPRC should be made to be at the same session with Ministry of Finance over the issues, to enable all parties chart a common cause in relation to the issue.
“I know you have enormous powers that you can use to compel these agencies to appear before us. We are having challenges bringing them to the table so that we can resolve these issues.
“We in the Federal Ministry of Finance are ready to come and sit with them here, so that you can hear directly from them and obtain the necessary explanations and clarifications”, he stated.
But the Chairman of the Committee told the permanent secretary to arrange the meeting with the affected agencies as issues involved are not only being followed in Nigeria but internationally.
“I will like you to review the internal report and arrange a meeting involving the Ministry of Finance, the NUPRC, NNPC and any other agency whose participation is necessary to resolve the issues we have raised.
“As you are aware, these issues are being followed by the international community. They are not matters confined to Nigeria; they are in the public domain and are being monitored by people across the world.
“Therefore, if there are records or issues that need to be clarified and properly put in order, we should do so in the interest of our country. All of us have no other country except Nigeria”, he said.
BUSINESS
Nigeria’s Oil Production Drops 4 Per Cent in July – NUPRC
Nigeria’s crude oil production fell by four per cent month-on-month in July, but the country still met its Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries quota for the third consecutive month, latest data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission has shown.
The commission’s latest production figures showed that Nigeria pumped an average of 1.
505 million barrels per day of crude oil in July, slightly above its OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day.When condensate production of about 170,000 barrels per day is included, the country’s total crude and condensate output stood at 1.
67 million barrels per day during the month.The July performance, however, represented a decline from the 1.735 million barrels per day recorded in June, translating to a reduction of about 65,000 barrels per day, or 3.75 per cent.
The NUPRC disclosed the figures in a statement issued on Wednesday by its Head of Media and Corporate Communications, Eniola Akinkuotu.
The statement read, “Nigeria has for the third consecutive month met and exceeded its OPEC quota of 1.5mbpd. In the month of July 2026, Nigeria produced 1.505mbpd of crude oil and 0.17mbpd of condensate, bringing the combined daily production to 1.67mbpd.
“Although Nigeria met its OPEC quota in the month of July, the statistics show that on a month-on-month basis, production fell by 4 per cent.”
According to the commission, daily combined crude and condensate production fluctuated between a low of 1.57 million barrels per day and a peak of 1.78 million barrels per day in July.
“Daily average production was 1.67 million barrels per day, comprising both crude oil (1.505 million bopd) and condensate (0.17mbpd),” the commission said.
Despite the July decline, Nigeria has maintained crude production above its 1.5mbpd OPEC quota for three consecutive months.
The country’s combined crude and condensate production has increased since the beginning of the year, according to NUPRC’s month-on-month data.
Production stood at 1.459 million barrels per day in January, before rising to 1.483mbpd in February. It subsequently increased to 1.564mbpd in March, 1.663mbpd in April, 1.701mbpd in May and 1.735mbpd in June.
July therefore marked the first monthly decline after the steady increase recorded in the first half of the year.
Compared with January, however, July’s combined production of 1.67mbpd was about 211,000 barrels per day, or 14.5 per cent, higher.
The NUPRC attributed the July decline principally to operational challenges at the Erha and Akpo fields, which affected production during the month.
“These disruptions constrained production volumes and contributed significantly to the overall reduction in national crude oil output,” the commission said.
It added that production activities at other oil-producing assets remained relatively stable despite the disruptions.
“Despite the challenges encountered, production operations across other producing assets remained relatively stable, with operators implementing measures aimed at maintaining production efficiency and minimising the impact of operational constraints,” the regulator said.
It said routine production and crude evacuation activities were also largely sustained across the industry.
The commission added that operators and other stakeholders were working to resolve the affected production facilities and restore lost capacity.
“Industry stakeholders remain focused on addressing the identified operational issues, restoring affected production capacity and strengthening asset reliability to support improved performance in subsequent months,” it said.
The breakdown of production by terminals and streams showed that Forcados Terminal recorded an average output of 322.34kbpd in July, making it the largest producing stream listed by the commission.
It was followed by Bonny Terminal, which recorded 303.72kbpd.
Qua Iboe Terminal ranked third, with average production of 158.02kbpd of crude oil and condensates, while Escravos Oil Terminal recorded 131.41kbpd.
The Bonga stream ranked fifth among the leading producing terminals, with an average of 100.23kbpd of crude oil.
The Federal Government and NUPRC have identified increased crude oil production as important to government revenue, foreign exchange earnings and investment in the upstream sector.
Oil & Gas
Chevron Says Competitive Local Capacity Devt to Define Nigeria’s Energy Future
The Managing Director of Chevron Nigeria Limited, Jim Swartz, has highlighted key areas that would sustain Nigeria’s energy transition growth pathway.
Swartz, is of the opinion that strong collaboration and partnership are key to sustain the country’s energy needs.
Speaking at the just-concluded 49th Nigerian Annual International Conference and Exhibition (NAICE) in Lagos, Swartz, said no one player can deliver the scale of projects required to achieve the goals set by the country alone.
He declared that Collaboration is essential because no single company, institution, or stakeholder can address the opportunities and challenges of the intersector alone.
And technology will remain a key driver of safer operations, stronger performance, and the future that we will deliver. For Nigeria, the opportunity is significant.The conference with the theme “Thriving in the Evolving Global Energy Landscape: Collaborative Growth and Resilience,” focused on how Nigeria can compete for capital and sustain production amid global volatility.
The managing director listed four pillars he believed are essential to define a resilient energy future.
These include continued investment, enabling long-term policies, competitive local capacity development, and strong partnerships.
He continued, “Building a resilient energy future requires continued investment, enabling policies that are resilient for the long-term, local capacity development that’s competitive and durable as well, and strong partnerships across governments, regulators, industry, and the technical community,”.
He said Chevron has invested in Nigeria for more than six decades, noting the company’s role in building the foundation of the industry and in developing technical capacity.
The firm therefore called for stronger collaboration across government, regulators and industry operators as the foundation for building a resilient oil and gas sector that can deliver growth, jobs and energy security for Nigeria.


