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Saudi Arabia Dramatically Changing Oil Exports to China, US

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Ganiyu Obaaro, with Agency report

Saudi Arabia has seriously ramped up its oil exports to China in recent months.

The Saudi Kingdom’s crude shipments to China have doubled in the span of a year. During the same period, its oil exports to the U.

S. have dropped by nearly two-thirds.

According to TankerTrackers.com, which tracks oil tankers and shipments based on satellite imagery and ships’ automatic identification systems, Saudi Arabia exported a whopping 1,802,788 barrels per day (bpd) to China in July, compared to 921,811 bpd in August of 2018.

By contrast, exports to the U.S. in July were 262,053 bpd, nearly 62 per cent down from 687,946 bpd in August of last year.

U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil have helped the shift. Major Asian energy importers like China have been forced to shift business away from the Islamic Republic -OPEC’s third-largest producer -and start buying more Saudi barrels to make up for that shortfall.

The U.S. is now more self-reliant than ever, thanks to its own Shale oil revolution, which helped it become the world’s largest oil producer by the end of last year.

But the numbers also signal a mix of short-term tactics and long-term strategy for the Saudis, industry experts told CNBC.

“Saudi Arabia learned from the last OPEC production cut in 2017 that they got the biggest bang for their buck by cutting flows to the largest, most transparent and most timely market — the U.S.,” said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at commodities analytics firm ClipperData, referring to the coordinated production cut that OPEC and its allies orchestrated to put a floor under falling oil prices.

“Choking back on flows to the U.S. was the best way to draw down inventories and turn around bearish sentiment, and they are employing the same tactic once again.”

ClipperData’s figures, which differ from that of TankerTrackers due to different tracking methods, still show U.S. imports of Saudi crude in July down over 60 per cent from last October.

Meanwhile, Smith said, as Saudi Arabia “slams on the brakes to the most transparent market, it is sending more crude into the most opaque one, China.”

This is where some industry analysts say Riyadh is employing short-term tactics: “impacting what remains the most visible and closely-watched market indicator, U.S. crude stocks,” Antoine Halff, co-founder of energy market analytics firm Kayrros, told CNBC.

The market has largely traded on weekly U.S. numbers, which — up until the growth of satellite imagery to provide greater transparency on global stocks — provided the best available picture of market conditions.

In spite of the greater availability of global market inventory thanks to satellite data, “the goal of impacting the U.S. stock metric seems to remain very real for OPEC in general and the Kingdom in particular,” Halff said. “Rightly or wrongly, this is the benchmark that everybody watches.”

China, oh the other hand, is not as forthcoming as OECD countries about its stocks, and its data isn’t as visible to the market. Halff notes that there is no established benchmark of Chinese stocks as there is for the U.S.

“Producers are far less concerned about building Chinese stocks than they are about building U.S. or OECD stocks in terms of what that may signal to the market,” he said.

TankerTrackers.com co-founder Samir Madani has described China as a sort of “black hole” for the world’s oil exports, having the ability to “easily absorb oil barrels from the market, especially when prices dip.” Looking at this, many analysts see a clear strategy from Beijing.

“The Chinese are very savvy and astute buyers, exporters who supply them have very good reasons to do so,” Halff said. In the current low oil price climate, the world’s largest oil importer is happy to up its Saudi crude purchases as its appetite increases, particularly given its launch of two new refineries which will grow its refining capacity by 800,000 bpd.

Locking in Asian market share is also a key long-term goal for Riyadh, as it is for other regional producers competing to capture downstream capacity across the continent. Saudi Aramco’s plan to acquire a 20 per cent stake in Indian refining and petrochemicals giant Reliance is the most recent example of this.

Conveniently for the Saudis, there’s also no risk of losing the U.S. as a customer, thanks to its giant Aramco-owned Motiva refinery in Texas. Therefore, “Aramco is willing to increase or decrease to the U.S. based on its own needs,” says Ellen Wald, President of Transversal Consulting and author of the book “Saudi, Inc.”

Oil & Gas

Nigeria Tops Global Index as LNG Supply to Surge From 2027

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Global Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) supply is set to reach record level from 2027, driven by new projects and expanded production in the U.S., Qatar, and key African producers such as Nigeria, Algeria and Morocco.

According to Bloomberg’s Global LNG Market Outlook 2030, global supply will reach 594 million tons by 2030—a 42 per cent increase from 2024—with a projected 15-million-ton oversupply in international markets.

While geopolitical risks and potential project delays could alter this outlook, the prospect of a sustained LNG surplus raises a pressing question for Africa: how can the continent strengthen domestic gas value chains to shield itself from global market volatility?

Recent developments indicate progress toward a more integrated African gas economy.

Nigeria is expanding cross-border and power generation infrastructure as captured by the report.

Major pipeline projects include the $25 billion Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline, spanning 13 West African states, the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline connecting Nigeria to Algeria, and the $1.5 billion Mozambique-Zambia pipeline announced in 2025.

Also, LNG terminals designed for domestic and regional access are under construction at Richards Bay in South Africa and the Port of Nador in Morocco. Ethiopia recently signed a landmark agreement to advance the Gas-by-Rail Economic Corridor Initiative, a 75,000-kilometre freight railway system set to deliver LNG to more than 40 sub-Saharan nations.

Senegal is developing a multi-phase gas network linking offshore production to power plants, industrial zones, and urban centres, while Ghana plans five multi-purpose petrochemical plants producing 90,000 barrels per day of chemicals, including fertilisers and lubricants.

A continental push toward gas-to-power is increasingly evident, backed by policy reforms and initiatives to expand electricity access.

The African Energy Chamber (AEC) outlook projects natural gas supplying 45 per cent of Africa’s power by 2050.

Countries such as Nigeria, South Africa, Angola, Senegal, Ghana, and Mozambique have incorporated gas-to-power targets into national strategies, aiming to translate rising production into reliable electricity, cleaner cooking solutions, and broader economic growth.

With domestic gas demand increasing, infrastructure projects underway, and export markets becoming increasingly competitive, African Energy Week 2026 will serve as a strategic platform to reposition gas not merely as an export commodity but as a foundation for long-term energy security, industrial development, and inclusive growth across the continent

Africa’s natural gas production is on the rise, with multiple LNG projects under development across the continent.

Currently, North Africa—including Algeria and Morocco—accounts for two-thirds of Africa’s gas output, but the African Energy Chamber’s (AEC) State of African Energy 2026 Outlook projects this share falling to 40 per cent by 2035 as sub-Saharan production accelerates.

By 2050, sub-Saharan LNG supply could quadruple, while African gas demand is expected to grow 60 per cent, from 55 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2020 to 90 bcm.

Despite this growth, the majority of Africa’s gas continues to be exported. Limited pipeline networks, underdeveloped transmission systems, and inadequate processing and storage infrastructure prevent gas from reaching domestic markets.

Consequently, LNG exports remain the most viable monetisation route, supported by international offtake contracts and financing structures. Domestic infrastructure projects often face financing challenges, as patient capital, government backing, and credit enhancements are required—factors more readily available for export-focused LNG developments.

Analysts argue that closing this gap will require an infrastructure-led strategy linking production to domestic pipelines, power generation, and regional interconnections.

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Dangote Refinery Reaffirms N699/litre Gantry Price

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Dangote Petroleum Refinery has refuted a report claiming the refinery is shutting down for maintenance, describing the story as false and misleading.

In a statement released on Monday, the refinery emphasised that production remains ongoing, stable, and uninterrupted.

“Dangote Petroleum Refinery continues to operate at scale and retains the capacity to supply between 40 million and 50 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) daily through January and February, subject solely to market demand,” the statement said.
It added that on January 4, the refinery produced 50 million litres of PMS and evacuated 48 million litres via its gantry. “Current stock levels cover over 20 days of national consumption, effectively dispelling any concerns about supply.

The refinery clarified that routine maintenance on specific units, including the Crude Distillation Unit (CDU) and Residual Fluid Catalytic Cracking (RFCC), does not interrupt overall production, owing to the sophisticated and integrated design of its processing units. Other critical units, such as the Naphtha Hydrotreater, CCR Reformer, and Hydrocracker, remain fully operational, producing PMS, Diesel (Automotive Gas Oil), and Jet A-1.

The refinery also reaffirmed its ex-gantry price of N699 per litre for PMS, available to all marketers and bulk consumers. It encouraged filling stations, large-scale users, and institutional buyers to patronise locally refined products, which are more affordable, reliable, and of high quality, rather than relying on imported alternatives.

Dangote Petroleum Refinery accused fuel importers of promoting false reports to justify recent, unwarranted increases in petrol pump prices, noting that such actions run counter to national interest and impose unnecessary hardship on Nigerians. According to the refinery, without domestic refining, petrol prices could rise to as much as N1,400 per litre in a post-subsidy environment, highlighting the stabilising role of local production.

Reiterating its commitment to energy security and market stability, the refinery said it would continue supplying high-quality petroleum products, maintaining steady availability, and supporting Nigeria’s broader economic growth. Stakeholders and the public were advised to disregard misinformation and rely on verified sources.

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Oil & Gas

NCDMB set to Attain 100% Local Content in Africa

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By Eddy Ochigbo

The Nigerian Content Development Management Board (NCDMB) has reaffirmed its determination to increase the current from 56% to100% local content in Africa between now and next decade, to align with President Ahmed Tinubu’s “Nigeria First” policy, aimed at boosting local production and reducing dependence on imports in critical sectors of national economy.

Director Corporate Services NCDMB, Dr Abdulmalik Halilu who drop the hint during the week at a capacity building workshop for media stakeholders in Abuja, disclosed that NCDMB, was in good stead to attain 100% Local content in less than no time due to impactful steps being taken by the board.

Innovative steps being by the board, be said, were put in place under the leadership of Executive Secretary, Engr. Felix Omatsola Ogbe. While hinging the milestones attained by the board on the establishment of the Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry Development Content Act (NOGICD) – a sole agency of the federal government responsible for driving Nigerian content in the oil and gas industry – Halilu urged Oil and Gas Correspondents to place high premium on the core operations of NCDMB, rather than their day to day reportage of policy matters.

The media capacity building workshop themed: The Role of Media and Communications in Sustaining Nigerian Content Development”, challenged the media to deploy its expertise and professionalism to boost Nigeria’s sustained campaign in championing local content development in Africa.

“The media should to do more in the reportage of activities of the board by moving from reporting policy matters, and throw more light on core operations of the Nigerian content performance in the oil and gas industry”, he volunteered.

Meanwhile, NCDMB”s move is to ensure that for every N100 spent in the industry by operators and service companies, N56 is now retained in-country in terms of value addition local assets, goods, expertise to target 70 per cent local content by 2027. The workshop stressed the need for the media to interrogate the board’s activities and keep Nigerians abreast of the ongoing silent revolution in nation’s local content trajectory.

On his part, Dr Obinna Ezeobi, General Manager, Corporate Services, reiterated that the Nigerian content has become so widespread the world over that a good number of African countries are now seeking ways to optimise value from their oil and gas resources, turning to Nigeria’s local implementation as a case study.

Earlier, Mr Azubuike Ishiekwene, Editor-in-Chief of Leadership Newspapers, who delivered a paper on why “Good Journalism is not Enough: Creating Sustainable Income from your Content in Digital Age”, maintained that good journalism is no longer in vogue because of the collapse of traditional newsroom revenue and the under payment and casualisation of Journalists, especially beat reporters. He reasoned that the Journalist as knowledge worker, a trusted interpreter, public educator and a market signaler must live above board because digital age did kill journalism, it killed dependency.

By and large, the media capacity building workshop, among things touched on:

  • Formulation and implementation of policies and monitoring its socioeconomic impact;
  • Provision of the economic and social capital, necessary for the growth of industries; and
  • Provision of enabling business environment to support production and consumption of goods and services by local supply chain.

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