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Nigeria Records N125.5bn Oil Revenue Shortfall in Q1

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By Mathew Dadiya, Abuja

Nigeria has started feeling the impact of the COVID-19 on the global oil price as the country recorded a princely N125.52 billion drop in oil revenue in the first quarter of 2020.

The shorfall represented 31% of the prorated amount that is supposed to have been realized by the end of that first quarter.

 

Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Mrs Zainab Ahmed disclosed this on Thursday while briefing State House Correspondents after the National Economic Council (NEC) meeting at Presidential Villa, Abuja.

The Minister said that the net oil and gas revenue and influx to the federation account in the first quarter of 2020 amounted to N940.91billion.  

Mrs Ahmed regretted that the COVID-19 has resulted in the collapse in oil prices saying that it will impact negatively on the nation’s economy and the impact has already started showing on the federation’s revenues and on the foreign exchange earnings. 

According to her, 40% of the population in Nigeria, today, are classified as poor – the crisis will only multiply this misery.  

Worried by this indication, the Minister pessimitically said that the could could dip into a recession this year due to the ravaging effect of the Covid-19 on the global economy.

The Minister said: ”The economic growth in Nigeria, that is the GDP, could in the worst case scenario, contract by  as much as –8.94% in 2020.  But in the best case,   which is the case we are working on, it could be a contraction of –4.4%, if there is no fiscal stimulus.  

”But with the fiscal stimulus plan that we are working on, this contraction can be mitigated and we might end up with a negative –0.59% .

”The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has made an assessment, so it is the NBA assessment that Nigeria will go into a recession measuring at an average of -4.4%. But with the work that the Economic Sustainability Committee is doing bringing stimulus packages, we believe that we can reduce the impact of that recession. And if we applied all that have been proposed and we are able to implement it we may end up with a recession that is -0.4 per cent. In any case, we will go into recession but what we are trying to do is to make sure that it is shallow so that we will quickly come out of it come 2021. 

”As a result of that the President set up the Presidential Economic Sustainability Committee in addition to the COVID-19 Response Committee that has been set up, the Presidential Task Force that is chaired by the SGF as well as the Crisis Management Committee that I chair. ”

The minister explained that the FG is committed to supporting the financial viability of states, including the suspension of payments in respect of commitments, debts that have been secured with ISPOs by the states at the federal levels.  

”So, we have already implemented suspension of deductions of a number of loans that have been taken by the states from April and also in May, ” she said.

“The Economic Sustainability Committee is responsible for providing overall strategic vision, policy direction and general oversight of the implementation amongst others”, the minister said. 

”We also had discussions with the World Bank.  The World Bank Country Director was invited into the meeting and he spoke to the meeting in respect of their assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on the economy and also their review of the measures that government has taken.  

”As you know, some of these measures include the N500billion that the president has approved to support healthcare facilities and provide relief to tax payers as well as incentives that would be provided to employers to retain and recruit staff during the lockdown period. 

”This package also includes the increase in the social register by one million households to 3.5million for cash transfer programmes and palliatives and other social safety net programmes. 

”The World Bank maintains that the impact of the COVID-19 on Nigeria will lead to severe amplified human and economic cost, which will move the country into a recession.  The World Bank planned a proposed package for immediate fiscal relief for the FG.  This will also involve policy-based policy budget support for the FG, focusing on measures to maintain macro financial stability and create fiscal space for proposed stimulus. 

”The World Bank package has also got a proposal of $1.5billion for the states and this package will be dedicated to the states.  And it will be a programme for results which the states are already used to implementing, ”she said.

Mrs Ahmed also disclosed that the immediate fiscal relief for the states, will include the acceleration of an existing programme to enable disbursement by end of September.  

She added that the proposed $1.5billion plan will by end of September, would have been disbursed to the states.  

”We are looking at an average of between N150billion to N200billion based on the plan to the 36 states.  These are states that have already made some particular commitments and achievements so that they will be able to get immediate disbursements of parts of these funds., ” she explained.      

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Oil & Gas

Chevron Says Competitive Local Capacity Devt to Define Nigeria’s Energy Future

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The Managing Director of Chevron Nigeria Limited, Jim Swartz, has highlighted key areas that would sustain Nigeria’s energy transition growth pathway.

Swartz, is of the opinion that strong collaboration and partnership are key to sustain the country’s energy needs.

Speaking at the just-concluded 49th Nigerian Annual International Conference and Exhibition (NAICE) in Lagos, Swartz, said no one player can deliver the scale of projects required to achieve the goals set by the country alone.

He declared that Collaboration is essential because no single company, institution, or stakeholder can address the opportunities and challenges of the intersector alone.

And technology will remain a key driver of safer operations, stronger performance, and the future that we will deliver. For Nigeria, the opportunity is significant.

The conference with the theme “Thriving in the Evolving Global Energy Landscape: Collaborative Growth and Resilience,” focused on how Nigeria can compete for capital and sustain production amid global volatility.

The managing director listed four pillars he believed are essential to define a resilient energy future.

These include continued investment, enabling long-term policies, competitive local capacity development, and strong partnerships.

He continued, “Building a resilient energy future requires continued investment, enabling policies that are resilient for the long-term, local capacity development that’s competitive and durable as well, and strong partnerships across governments, regulators, industry, and the technical community,”.

He said Chevron has invested in Nigeria for more than six decades, noting the company’s role in building the foundation of the industry and in developing technical capacity.

The firm therefore called for stronger collaboration across government, regulators and industry operators as the foundation for building a resilient oil and gas sector that can deliver growth, jobs and energy security for Nigeria.

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BUSINESS

NNPC Saves $3.4bn, Contributes N19.5tn Revenue in One Year

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By David Torough, Abuja

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) said it saved $3.4bn through contract restructuring and optimisation over the past year, while increasing its contribution to government revenue to N19.

5tn and boosting crude oil and gas production.

Group Chief Executive Officer, Bayo Ojulari, disclosed the figures on Tuesday while presenting the company’s one-year performance scorecard at the opening of the 25th NOG Energy Week in Abuja.

According to Ojulari, the contract optimisation programme reduced operating costs by $3.

4bn without disrupting operations, strengthening commercial efficiency and improving the competitiveness of Nigeria’s oil and gas industry.

The scorecard showed that crude oil production rose by six per cent year-on-year to 569.7 million barrels, while gas production increased by 8.1 per cent to 2,576 billion standard cubic feet. NNPC’s contribution to government revenue also climbed by 21.8 per cent to N19.5tn.

Ojulari said Nigeria’s crude oil production has reached about 1.71 million barrels per day, the highest level in five years, while NNPC Exploration and Production Limited achieved a record output of 365,000 barrels per day.

He said the company aims to increase crude oil production to two million barrels per day by 2027 and three million barrels per day by 2030. Gas production is projected to rise from 7.62 billion cubic feet per day this year to 10 billion cubic feet per day in 2027 and 12 billion cubic feet per day by 2030.

The NNPC boss also reported significant improvements in export infrastructure, noting that crude export terminals recorded an average 98 per cent recovery factor between April 2025 and May 2026. He added that major evacuation pipelines, including the Trans Niger, Trans Escravos, Trans Ramos, Trans Forcados and Oando-Brass lines, are operating at 100 per cent availability.

Ojulari further disclosed that NNPC maintained 100 per cent compliance with its Joint Venture cash-call obligations throughout 2025 and into June 2026, although some partners remained in default, increasing the company’s funding responsibilities.

On the commercial front, he said NNPC signed gas sale and purchase agreements covering 1.29 billion standard cubic feet per day for long-term LNG feed gas and 750 million standard cubic feet per day for domestic industrial gas supply to DFL FZE and Dangote Refinery. The agreements are expected to attract more than $20bn in investments, with seven additional transactions under negotiation.

He also highlighted governance reforms, including the resumption of monthly remittances to the Federation Account in July 2025, the restoration of monthly business performance reporting and the company’s first earnings call in November 2025.

Ojulari urged governments, investors, regulators and operators across Africa to strengthen collaboration, arguing that strategic partnerships would be critical to unlocking the continent’s energy potential and attracting greater investment.

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Oil & Gas

OPEC Projects Slower Drop in Crude Consumption by Advanced Economies

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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), has revised downward its 2026 global oil demand growth estimates, citing expected slower consumption growth in advanced economies, where collective demand will rise by only 100,000 barrels per day.

The cartel said it now expects global oil demand growth to reach 1.

2 million barrels per day in 2026, down from its previous forecast of 1.
4 million barrels per day, explaining that the revision would bring total global oil consumption to 106.3 million barrels per day.

In Europe, oil demand will decline by 30,000 barrels per day as weaker economic activity weighs on consumption, OPEC, said in its monthly oil market report.

The OPEC also expects some Asian economies, particularly Japan, to record slower demand growth. The organization forecast Japanese oil consumption to fall by 80,000 barrels per day.

However, strong demand from major emerging economies partly offset these weaker signals.

The OPEC said China would add 250,000 barrels per day to global demand, supported by its petrochemical industry. The organization also forecast India to increase demand by 200,000 barrels per day, driven by infrastructure spending and growth in vehicle ownership. Overall, OPEC expects emerging economies and developing countries to contribute an additional 1.1 million barrels per day to global oil consumption in 2026.

The OPEC’s revision aligns with a broader reassessment of global oil demand expectations.

In its May 2026 report, the International Energy Agency projected a much sharper downturn. The agency forecast a contraction of 420,000 barrels per day in global oil demand for the full year rather than a slowdown in growth.

The gap between the two institutions now exceeds 1 million barrels per day, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the market outlook.

Both reports identified the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a major factor behind market instability. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, six Gulf countries collectively reduced production by 10.5 million barrels per day in April, marking what the agency described as an unprecedented contraction outside pandemic periods.

As supply shortages intensified, oil producers outside the Middle East moved to increase production to offset part of the missing volumes. Several African producers, including Nigeria, Libya and Angola, benefited from rising demand for Atlantic Basin crude among Asian and European buyers that lost access to Gulf oil supplies, according to the IEA.

However, not all African producers can fully capitalize on the opportunity. Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer and an OPEC member, nonetheless showed encouraging momentum. According to provisional data published on May 15 by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, the country increased oil production from 1.546 million barrels per day in March to 1.663 million barrels per day in April 2026.

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