OPINION
Season of Conspiracy Politics
By Chidi Amuta
I have fallen victim to two sets of phone calls in recent weeks about political developments in Nigeria. Between foreign friends and associates on one hand and my local elite readers and friends on the other.
The foreigners have uniformly expressed consternation at recent political developments in Nigeria. They just cannot understand the peculiarities of our political culture. How come an opposition platform is just being cobbled together barely six months to a general election? How come the major opposition leaders are the same politicians who have featured with the characters now in power in the ruling APC? How come politicians have waited for the judiciary to tell them who should lead the new opposition party? Why do Nigerian politicians change their parties literally like underpants ever so often?On the other hand, calls from fellow Nigerian elite have been somewhat different.
They are not surprised about the series of decampments and avalanche of new parties on demand. In Nigerian politics, political parties are just like the local mini bus, Danfo. They are just means of transporting political animals to their desired destination. It is inbuilt in Nigeria’s political culture. We form new parties, discard old ones, jump from one party to the other at different times of the day. No ideals. No ideologies. Just trends and likely winners. We are mostly devotees of political icons and oracles. We follow our favourite candidates wherever they go in the partisan super market. Whoever the people feel is likely to win automatically has our support. It does not matter what the party stands for or for how long it has been in existence. A party can spring to life in three months and still sweep a state, local government and cause sleepless nights at the national level. No one here in their right senses will express surprise at the last minute tinkering with opposition parties.From either side, none has queried the names or nomenclature of the many opposition parties. Nigerians are infinitely creative when it comes to naming things. No one has asked what the new Salvation Army parties stand for. We are not an ideological people. No one has even asked how the new opposition platforms differ from the ruling APC. Our politicians come from a common ancestry. They are all bound by the blood of betrayal, conspiracy, cross-carpeting, deceit of the masses and deployment of stolen money.
Yesterday it was some strange creature called the ADC. People registered massively into the ADC. Even federal legislators defected into the ADC before pausing to hear what the Supreme Court would rule on whether the party had a legal leadership or not and the plight of its registration as a party. After the Supreme Court verdict validating the new party’s leadership, the anti-ADC public jubilated. At last, some party was coming to free us from the Tinubu hegemony. The Tinubu people panicked a bit. Their illusion of a virtual one party dominated general election was fractured.
The defections, migrations and exodus into the ADC continued for a while. In the aftermath of the Supreme Court verdict, the purported preferred opposition party played host to a deluge of political migrants. As it were, the political landscape quickly split into two camps: the APC/Tinubu tribe versus those whose only identification mark is that they are “NOT” Tinubu and APC. A ruling party and a fledgling grand opposition party!
But just as Nigerians were getting used to this new bipolar landscape, the Nigerian political animal birthed an even stranger offspring. Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwakwanso, two significant opposition leaders abandoned the ADC and joined a new party, the NDC- the Nigerian Democratic Congress- previously mostly identified with one man-Senator Seriake Dickson- former Bayelsa Governor. Literally, Dickson’s Danfo was ready to convey Peter Obi and Kwakwanso to the “new Jerusalem”.
Yet another ripple has occurred in the political pool. Literally overnight, the previously solid followership of the ADC as the main opposition platform has literally caved in. Most non-APC politicians have begun yet another mass migration to the NDC, abandoning the ADC. Only a few days ago, 17 federal legislators defected to the NDC in one day. Mass membership registrations into the NDC have been reported all over the country.
The initial conspiracy rumours began during the opposition leaders summit held in Ibadan earlier. The public perception was that the leaders had agreed to present a consensus candidate for the presidential ticket. That sounded un-Nigerian given the towering ambitions on display. It later turned out that despite every effort made to discourage one of the leaders to back down from the race, he insisted on proceeding. Later, unconfirmed reports filtered out that the man had made specific demands as conditions for stepping down. An initial understanding to hold direct primaries to choose a presidential candidate became uncomfortable for Mr. Atiku the moment he sensed that Peter Obi had reached an understanding to collaborate with Kwakwanso on a joint ticket. Atiku now wanted a consensual endorsement of his candidature. This did not go down well with the rest.
On their part, both Peter Obi and Kwakwanso are said to have insisted that candidates for the party’s ticket should have their own organic followership and movements in order to drive membership. So, Ibadan ended with a future of discord and a clear indication that the ADC was dead from inception.
From the developments so far, certain tentative deductions have become apparent.
First, Nigerian political followership is not necessarily ideological. It is like the rest of our social value system driven by personalities. Nigerians believe in personages, individuals whom they believe embody certain ideas and ideals. Somehow, the current political opposition temperament in Nigeria seems to be driven by the popularity of Mr. Peter Obi and his left -of- centre ideas. His messaging is about a new politics for a new nation. He is about a more transparent governance based on leadership that is accountable, visionary, competent, nationalistic and committed. He has carried this message forward from his 2023 campaign. He has found a political marriage with former Kano state governor Rabiu Kwakwanso very convenient.
Both men share a certain massive popular followership. Kwakwanso has his Kwakwansiya movement which has expanded into a virtual pan -northern popular movement with teeming followership. On his part, Peter Obi has had the Obidient Movement as a massive popular movement with membership that cuts across ethnic, religious and regional divides. The elite and the urban working class are comfortable with the Obidient values coinciding with the ideals that could make Nigeria great. It is this combination that is the driving force of the possibility of a viable opposition in the current Nigerian political atmosphere.
Obi and Kwakwanso therefore represent the immense demographic possibility of the popular masses in Nigeria. It is this fear that seems to frighten the old political establishment including President Tinubu’s political behemoth, the APC. It is the heart and soul of the real political opposition at the present time. And this is why with the exit of Obi and Kwankwanso, the opposition potential of the ADC has largely been deflated.
What is left of the opposition threat of the ADC is the shadow presided over by Mr. Atiku Abubakar. Mr. Atiku who turns 80 in November totally misread the political compass of the nation. The convention of north-south rotation of the presidency is not a fiction. It is the basis of stability in a nation that is predominantly Southern Christian and Northern Muslim.
In the current setting, Mr. Tinubu, a southern Muslim is in power. The only political competition he can face can only be from a southern politician. In other words, political contests every eight years in the context of the rotational north-south convention can only be localized within the same geo-strategic region. Atiku’s current presidential ambition is a blatant violation of this convention.
Secondly, given his current age (80 in November), Atiku is outside the tolerable age perimeter of those who lead the current opposition pressure. Beyond that, he has been too much a part of the partisan yo -yo of recent politics to be taken seriously. Atiku has made too many political somersaults, changed parties too frequently and therefore perspectives and convictions ever so often to be held responsible for any perceivable slant on Nigeria’s problems. Ordinarily, the ideal direction for Atiku Abubakar at this moment in time is towards a merited retirement. It is hard to exonerate Atiku from the collapse that awaits the ADC proposition as an opposition platform.
In his statement justifying his exit from the ADC coalition, Peter Obi pointed at the purported infiltration of the ADC by the forces of the APC-led Nigerian state. Since then, various versions of the grand conspiracy to stop Obi and Kwakwanso have emerged.
One devious version is that the ADC may have been an arrangement between President Tinubu and Mr. Atiku to help the latter recover financially after the heavy toll his finances took under Buhari who literally was bent on impoverishing Atiku. This mischievous conspiracy theory goes on to insist that Atiku’s mission in the 2027 election season is merely to help Tinubu demolish Peter Obi’s threat by whittling down his vote count and giving Tinubu a much clearer win than in 2023.
The conspiracy theory indicates that Tinubu may have already promised Atiku certain ‘lucrative’ portfolios in his second term administration in addition to a handsome upfront down payment. This may well be a wild conspiracy theory with no factual basis. But for whatever it may be worth, the scheme and Atiku’s own presidential ambition would seem to have landed short of its runway.
The ADC as a party may still survive as a shell like the other many useless parties in the INEC register. But as a credible and frightening opposition platform, its hour has passed. It will not just disappear. It will go ahead to field inconsequential candidates with a manifesto that appears to differ from Tinubu’s lack -lustre agenda. But it has lost its originating appeal and potential. In Nigerian politics, a party platform is as good as the names behind it and their political gravity. Without Obi and Kwakwanso, the ADC is dead on arrival as an opposition platform.
Public response to the migration of Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwakwanso has therefore been predictable. The duo were the life blood of the ADC and the opposition on account of their popular followership. Many have blamed Obi for this latest switch of party after he earlier left the Labour Party. Some have even seen Obi’s party migrations as indications of excessive ambition and an unwillingness to be a team player. That is a defective reading.
Obi has grown into an undeniable leadership stature in the country. His vast followership cannot see him in any role less than that of a presidential candidate. Therefore, it would be political suicide for Obi to join any party that would offer him anything less than a presidential ticket. The ADC as conceived was likely to humiliate him into a lesser role. It is therefore heroic of Obi to see the danger ahead and quit as and when he did.
In politics as in real life, heroism is not walking head on into an oncoming train. Nor is political bravery measured by walking blindly into a destructive trap set by vicious adversaries. On the other hand, the wise politician is the wily fellow who avoids all snares, traps, evil schemes of his adversaries and survives politically to advance his ambition and prosecute his vision to his desired victory point. Even if he does not win the race, let it be said that he led the charge in front of those who see him as leader.
The majority of those who have been castigating Obi for quitting the ADC are partisans who were waiting to deny Obi the party’s presidential ticket in order to douse his popularity and extinguish him politically. But the man had the foresight to fly over the cuckoo’s nest. With the exit of Obi and Kwakwanso, the fire is out of the ADC’s projected opposition train.
Interestingly, there has been little or no word against Mr. Atiku Abubakar whose lifelong presidential ambition has wrecked nearly every party that hosted him. Similarly, there has hardly been any condemnation of the antics of President Tinubu and the ruling party who have invested heavily in destabilizing and destroying rival political parties. This in itself is a direct destructive assault on multi-party democracy.
Since the recent upheaval in the political opposition landscape, a rash of conspiracy theories have invaded the air. Social media and beer parlor channels have taken over political intelligence. In his statement justifying his migration to the NDC, Peter Obi hinted that the ADC coalition had already been infiltrated by the virus of old Nigerian politics. In other words, the ADC had been invaded by agents of the incumbent administration.
Beer parlor informants who are ready to swear by all unlicensed deities further have it that Mr. Atiku has no interest in the 2027 presidential election beyond his personal financial rehabilitation. No one can confirm or deny this unkind theory.
Another conspiracy theory is that a wing in the ill-fated ADC is out to humiliate both Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar by denying both the presidential ticket of the party. This faction, led by opposition figures from the South West, are said to be bank- rolled by the incumbent administration with a limitless budget. The strategy is to make 2027 a South West versus South West contest with a view to making President Tinubu the consensus candidate. Under this scheme, both Governor Makinde and Rauf Aregbesola are to choose running mates from the North for full effect. Whichever of them wins the ADC ticket will face Tinubu in something akin to Olu Falae versus Olusegun Obasanjo (1999) contest!
Nigeria’s presidential election is a grand casino. Whoever wins the election will get to occupy the most powerful political office in Africa. It is an unlimited license to incredible power, influence and cash. In pursuit of that office, no conspiracy is too far- fetched. In fact, political conspiracy is in itself a virile lucrative sector of the Nigerian political industry. We are right in the midst of the conspiracy season in Nigeria’s unusual political culture.
OPINION
Osun Election: Will Nigeria’s Political Class Learn?
As Nigeria gradually enters the political season ahead of the 2027 general elections, there is a growing temptation among politicians to return to the familiar playbook: aggressive campaigns, endless promises, political propaganda, ethnic calculations, religious sentiments and the mobilisation of money and machinery.
But if the political class is paying attention, the recent Osun election should offer a sobering lesson.
Elections are no longer simply contests between political parties or exercises in political arithmetic. They are increasingly becoming referendums on performance, credibility, organisation and the relationship between politicians and the people.The Osun experience should therefore be more than another election victory or defeat to be celebrated by one camp and rationalised by another. It should be a warning to every politician preparing for 2027.
The first lesson is that the people are watching.
For too long, Nigerian politicians have behaved as though voters can be permanently manipulated with slogans, inducements and election-day theatrics. But voters are becoming more discerning. They may still respond to material incentives, but they also remember who governed well, who failed, who showed up and who disappeared after collecting their votes.
The second lesson is that political structures cannot replace public trust.
A party may possess powerful godfathers, influential leaders, vast resources and impressive campaign machinery, but these cannot indefinitely compensate for a credibility deficit. Political structures are important, but they work best when they are reinforced by genuine voter confidence.
The third lesson is that incumbency is not an automatic guarantee of victory.
Those who occupy political offices must understand that public office comes with a political bill that eventually falls due. Roads, schools, healthcare, jobs, security, salaries, infrastructure and the general welfare of citizens are not merely governance issues; they increasingly shape electoral decisions.
The politician who assumes that occupying government gives him an irreversible advantage may discover, rather painfully, that voters have the final word.
There is also a lesson for opposition parties. Winning elections requires more than criticising the government. Nigerians are increasingly interested in alternatives. Opposition parties must articulate credible programmes, build strong grassroots structures and demonstrate that they have the competence and discipline required to govern.
Perhaps the most important lesson is that 2027 cannot be approached as politics as usual.
Nigeria is facing an electorate that is younger, more digitally connected and increasingly vocal. Social media has changed political communication. Citizens can challenge official narratives in real time. Political mistakes can become national conversations within minutes. Candidates can no longer depend entirely on traditional campaign rallies and carefully managed media appearances.
The political class must also recognise that Nigerians are tired of being treated as statistics during elections and forgotten citizens afterwards.
The road to 2027 will undoubtedly produce the usual alliances, defections, endorsements and political realignments. There will be new coalitions and old rivalries. There will be attempts to weaponise identity, manipulate emotions and redefine political narratives.
But the real question is whether politicians will learn from Osun.
Will they understand that voters deserve respect? Will they realise that performance matters? Will political parties begin to prioritise competence over loyalty? Will candidates campaign on ideas rather than insults? Will politicians understand that democracy is not simply about winning elections but earning the legitimacy to govern?
These are the questions the Osun election should force the political class to confront.
The 2027 election is approaching. The campaign season may only be beginning, but the lessons have already arrived.
The politicians who choose to ignore them may do so at their own peril.
Nigeria’s voters are watching. And this time, they may be keeping a much longer memory.
Kokome, a communications strategist and public affairs analyst, writes from Lagos via kokomejohn@yahoo.com
OPINION
Two Hundred Days in Power: Some Lessons to Learn From General Murtala Mohammed
By John Chibuzo Emmanuel
The realm of Nigerian politics today is a chessboard where our bones and dripping blood are recklessly tossed from one end to another. This is why one of the most quoted phrases in the history of our nation is “politics is a dirty game.
” Well, from the days of Azikiwe right to the days of Asiwaju, from Balewa to Buhari, from Gowon to Goodluck, from Obafemi to Obasanjo, corruption scandals have never ceased to dominate our headlines.Achebe summed it all up when he lamented: “The trouble with Nigeria is simply and squarely a failure of leadership.
There is nothing basically wrong with the Nigerian character. There is nothing wrong with the Nigerian land or climate or water or air or anything else. The Nigerian problem is the unwillingness or inability of its leaders to rise to the responsibility, to the challenge of personal example which are the hallmarks of true leadership” (Achebe 1).And in these trying times of ours, when the blood of our children flow in the thick green forest, when the cries of our raped mothers do nothing but chase away the watching birds that perch on the tall trees, when the screams of our brave soldiers that echo in the forests serve as their untimely and only goodbye; we must remember General Murtala Muhammad. In this era when inhumanity has replaced our sense of religion and empathy, we must not forget a man who truly loved, lived and died for Nigeria. We must not forget the bravest and most fearless leader to have walked the brown earth of this barren land endowed with the greatest mineral deposits. Do not laugh at this paralyzing but profound and truthful paradox.
It is indeed a national tragedy that the most distinguished and excellent individuals in our short history have either been relegated to the background of oblivion, persecuted by the majority, or slaughtered on the altar of envy. It is a national tragedy that our school children know nothing of their history or heroes. It is even a greater tragedy that they are being robbed of noticeable examples of distinguished leadership from our history. The painful consequence of this is that we have come to accept stupidity and ideological bankruptcy in politics as our national guiding principles.
Mothers in the marketplace, children in malpractice-ridden schools, students in dilapidated institutions, brave soldiers dying in the thick enclaves of Sambisa, intellectuals tired from years of doing battle with the federal and state governments, do not forget General Murtala Muhammad. Do not forget General Murtala for he is a reminder of all we can achieve if we eradicate the different manifestations of corruption unique to our lives.
General Murtala was born on November 8, 1938, and became one of the youngest generals throughout the history of Nigeria. At the age of thirty-six he took over the reins of government from General Yakubu Gowon on July 29, 1975, through a bloodless coup d’etat, and ruled the country for just two hundred days before he was assassinated by Lieutenant Colonel Bukar Suka Dimka on February 13, 1976.
However, in his two hundred days of power, he implemented some of the most impactful and iconoclastic social and economic reforms ever seen in the history of this country. In his two hundred days of power, he sacked more than ten thousand corrupt and incompetent civil servants. In his two hundred days of power, he conceived and began implementing a vision of a central capital city other than Lagos. This city is now known as the city of Abuja.
In his two hundred days in power, he championed African Liberation Movements throughout Africa as well as opposed apartheid and neo-colonialism virulently. In his two hundred days of power he did what even democratically elected leaders have always hesitated to attempt: decentralization of the national executive. He decentralized his executive powers into a military triumvirate consisting of himself, Olusegun Obasanjo and Theophilus Danjuma.
In his two hundred days in power, the University of Jos—my alma matter—became a degree awarding institution. In his two hundred days of power he set Nigeria on the path of democracy before his tragic and untimely end. In his two hundred days in power he taught Nigerians the definition of true leadership.
No wonder Achebe once popularly wrote: “On the morning after Murtala Muhammed seized power in July 1975, public servants in Lagos were found “on seat” at seven thirty in the morning. Even the “go-slow” traffic that had defeated every solution and defied every regime vanished overnight from the streets.” How can one man wield such a positive influence in our national culture?
General Murtala Muhammed never allowed his ideas to rot in the bureaucratic files of government “experts”. For this, his signature phrase “with immediate effect” has become one of the most used and sadly, abused phrases by Nigerian politicians.
Do you know that the expression “fellow Nigerians” which has been bastardized by Nigerian leaders today was a term he coined and used to address ordinary Nigerians on the street whom he truly cared for? Do you know that upon his ascension to power he cut down the heavy security and military convoys that have come to characterize modern Nigerian politics? Do you know that in his two hundred days of power corrupt military officers and even military governors faced the wrath of the law just like every other Nigerian citizen on the streets? Do you know that all this was achieved by a man of just thirty-seven years?
If we forget Murtala Muhammad, we forget the dream of the poor hawker on the street, the prayer of the sun bathed keke driver, the hope of the unemployed graduate on the verge of suicide, or the resilience of the Northern girl child in her quest for education. If we forget Murtala Muhammad, we forget the Nigerian dream. The dream of living a peaceful and happy life.
On this historic day, we must remember General Murtala Muhammed and all he stood for so that we can eternally realize and regret the depth of our profound ignorance if we make a mistake on the 2027 ballot box. We cannot afford to make a mistake in the ballot box unless we want to eternalize the pain and tragedy of our lives. Vote for the future; our future, next year. Thank you for listening.
John Chibuzo is a Nigerian writer, literary critic, educator and multi-instrumentalist based in Jos city. His poetry and essays have been published in The National Scholar, Lolwe, Beyond the Pages, Nestle on the Rock and the anthology: Letters to the Union We Hope to Become. He co-founded The Excellent Magazine in 2024 and served as it’s first editor-in-chief. He studied English and Literature at the University of Jos.
OPINION
Urgent Need to Tackle Public Infrastructure Theft in Nigeria
By Tochukwu Jimo Obi
The rate at which public infrastructure is being vandalised and stolen across Nigeria, particularly in the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, has reached an alarming level that can no longer be ignored.
What was once regarded as isolated acts of petty criminality has gradually become a serious threat to public safety, government investment and the effective functioning of cities. Across Abuja, the brazen removal of public infrastructure has become so widespread that urgent and coordinated action is now required.One of the most disturbing examples is the widespread theft of manhole covers.
In several parts of Abuja, open manholes have become a common sight following the removal of their metal covers by vandals. This poses a serious danger to pedestrians, motorists and other road users, particularly at night. Beyond the immediate safety risks, the theft of these covers demonstrates the extent to which public property is being systematically stripped for the purpose of making quick money.The problem, however, goes far beyond manhole covers. Bridge rails, railway tracks, underground cables, solar street lights, electrical installations and other public facilities have also become targets. Infrastructure installed with taxpayers’ money is being dismantled and carted away, often with little or no resistance. The consequence is that facilities designed to improve public safety, transportation, security and the quality of life of citizens are being destroyed by individuals motivated by short term financial gains.
A major destination for these stolen materials is the network of makeshift scrap markets popularly referred to as “pantaker markets” in Abuja and its environs. These markets provide an avenue through which stolen public infrastructure can allegedly be disposed of with relative ease. The existence and continued operation of such markets should therefore be treated not merely as a commercial issue, but as a security and public infrastructure concern requiring the attention of relevant authorities.
Even more troubling is the role of those who purchase these materials. It is difficult to accept that buyers of manhole covers, cables, bridge components, railway materials and other government infrastructure would always be unaware of their origins. Where such materials are offered for sale under suspicious circumstances, buyers should be expected to exercise due diligence. Anyone who knowingly purchases stolen public property is not merely engaging in commerce; such a person is helping to sustain the criminal network responsible for the theft.
It is therefore worrying that successive administrations in Abuja have not appeared to give this problem the level of attention it deserves. Government agencies responsible for infrastructure, environmental enforcement and public safety must work closely with the police, civil defence authorities and other relevant security agencies to identify and raid locations where stolen public infrastructure is being traded. Such operations should not be limited to the arrest of street level vandals. Dealers, middlemen and buyers who knowingly participate in the illegal trade must also face investigation and prosecution.
The economic cost of this criminality is enormous. Every manhole cover, street light, cable, bridge rail or railway component stolen from public infrastructure must eventually be replaced. Money that could have been used to construct new roads, improve healthcare, provide schools, expand public transportation or address other pressing social needs is instead spent repeatedly replacing facilities that have already been provided. This creates a vicious cycle in which the government invests in infrastructure, criminals destroy it, and taxpayers are forced to finance its replacement.
There is also a broader question of public responsibility. Citizens should not remain passive when they witness the destruction or suspicious sale of public property. Communities have an important role to play in reporting vandals and suspicious dealers to the appropriate authorities. Government, on its part, must create effective reporting mechanisms and ensure that information supplied by citizens is acted upon. Enforcement will be difficult if citizens look the other way while stolen public property is openly traded in their communities.
The Federal Government, states and the FCT Administration and security agencies must therefore treat public infrastructure theft as a serious national security and economic issue. There should be a sustained crackdown on vandalism, proper regulation of scrap markets, effective monitoring of critical infrastructure and swift prosecution of those found culpable. Most importantly, enforcement must be consistent rather than occasional, because criminal networks quickly return whenever they discover that government attention has waned. Nigeria cannot afford to continue losing scarce public resources to vandals while millions of citizens struggle with inadequate infrastructure. The time to act decisively is now.
Tochukwu Jimo Obi, a concerned Nigerian writes from Obosi Anambra state.


