OPINION
Season of Conspiracy Politics
By Chidi Amuta
I have fallen victim to two sets of phone calls in recent weeks about political developments in Nigeria. Between foreign friends and associates on one hand and my local elite readers and friends on the other.
The foreigners have uniformly expressed consternation at recent political developments in Nigeria. They just cannot understand the peculiarities of our political culture. How come an opposition platform is just being cobbled together barely six months to a general election? How come the major opposition leaders are the same politicians who have featured with the characters now in power in the ruling APC? How come politicians have waited for the judiciary to tell them who should lead the new opposition party? Why do Nigerian politicians change their parties literally like underpants ever so often?On the other hand, calls from fellow Nigerian elite have been somewhat different.
They are not surprised about the series of decampments and avalanche of new parties on demand. In Nigerian politics, political parties are just like the local mini bus, Danfo. They are just means of transporting political animals to their desired destination. It is inbuilt in Nigeria’s political culture. We form new parties, discard old ones, jump from one party to the other at different times of the day. No ideals. No ideologies. Just trends and likely winners. We are mostly devotees of political icons and oracles. We follow our favourite candidates wherever they go in the partisan super market. Whoever the people feel is likely to win automatically has our support. It does not matter what the party stands for or for how long it has been in existence. A party can spring to life in three months and still sweep a state, local government and cause sleepless nights at the national level. No one here in their right senses will express surprise at the last minute tinkering with opposition parties.From either side, none has queried the names or nomenclature of the many opposition parties. Nigerians are infinitely creative when it comes to naming things. No one has asked what the new Salvation Army parties stand for. We are not an ideological people. No one has even asked how the new opposition platforms differ from the ruling APC. Our politicians come from a common ancestry. They are all bound by the blood of betrayal, conspiracy, cross-carpeting, deceit of the masses and deployment of stolen money.
Yesterday it was some strange creature called the ADC. People registered massively into the ADC. Even federal legislators defected into the ADC before pausing to hear what the Supreme Court would rule on whether the party had a legal leadership or not and the plight of its registration as a party. After the Supreme Court verdict validating the new party’s leadership, the anti-ADC public jubilated. At last, some party was coming to free us from the Tinubu hegemony. The Tinubu people panicked a bit. Their illusion of a virtual one party dominated general election was fractured.
The defections, migrations and exodus into the ADC continued for a while. In the aftermath of the Supreme Court verdict, the purported preferred opposition party played host to a deluge of political migrants. As it were, the political landscape quickly split into two camps: the APC/Tinubu tribe versus those whose only identification mark is that they are “NOT” Tinubu and APC. A ruling party and a fledgling grand opposition party!
But just as Nigerians were getting used to this new bipolar landscape, the Nigerian political animal birthed an even stranger offspring. Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwakwanso, two significant opposition leaders abandoned the ADC and joined a new party, the NDC- the Nigerian Democratic Congress- previously mostly identified with one man-Senator Seriake Dickson- former Bayelsa Governor. Literally, Dickson’s Danfo was ready to convey Peter Obi and Kwakwanso to the “new Jerusalem”.
Yet another ripple has occurred in the political pool. Literally overnight, the previously solid followership of the ADC as the main opposition platform has literally caved in. Most non-APC politicians have begun yet another mass migration to the NDC, abandoning the ADC. Only a few days ago, 17 federal legislators defected to the NDC in one day. Mass membership registrations into the NDC have been reported all over the country.
The initial conspiracy rumours began during the opposition leaders summit held in Ibadan earlier. The public perception was that the leaders had agreed to present a consensus candidate for the presidential ticket. That sounded un-Nigerian given the towering ambitions on display. It later turned out that despite every effort made to discourage one of the leaders to back down from the race, he insisted on proceeding. Later, unconfirmed reports filtered out that the man had made specific demands as conditions for stepping down. An initial understanding to hold direct primaries to choose a presidential candidate became uncomfortable for Mr. Atiku the moment he sensed that Peter Obi had reached an understanding to collaborate with Kwakwanso on a joint ticket. Atiku now wanted a consensual endorsement of his candidature. This did not go down well with the rest.
On their part, both Peter Obi and Kwakwanso are said to have insisted that candidates for the party’s ticket should have their own organic followership and movements in order to drive membership. So, Ibadan ended with a future of discord and a clear indication that the ADC was dead from inception.
From the developments so far, certain tentative deductions have become apparent.
First, Nigerian political followership is not necessarily ideological. It is like the rest of our social value system driven by personalities. Nigerians believe in personages, individuals whom they believe embody certain ideas and ideals. Somehow, the current political opposition temperament in Nigeria seems to be driven by the popularity of Mr. Peter Obi and his left -of- centre ideas. His messaging is about a new politics for a new nation. He is about a more transparent governance based on leadership that is accountable, visionary, competent, nationalistic and committed. He has carried this message forward from his 2023 campaign. He has found a political marriage with former Kano state governor Rabiu Kwakwanso very convenient.
Both men share a certain massive popular followership. Kwakwanso has his Kwakwansiya movement which has expanded into a virtual pan -northern popular movement with teeming followership. On his part, Peter Obi has had the Obidient Movement as a massive popular movement with membership that cuts across ethnic, religious and regional divides. The elite and the urban working class are comfortable with the Obidient values coinciding with the ideals that could make Nigeria great. It is this combination that is the driving force of the possibility of a viable opposition in the current Nigerian political atmosphere.
Obi and Kwakwanso therefore represent the immense demographic possibility of the popular masses in Nigeria. It is this fear that seems to frighten the old political establishment including President Tinubu’s political behemoth, the APC. It is the heart and soul of the real political opposition at the present time. And this is why with the exit of Obi and Kwankwanso, the opposition potential of the ADC has largely been deflated.
What is left of the opposition threat of the ADC is the shadow presided over by Mr. Atiku Abubakar. Mr. Atiku who turns 80 in November totally misread the political compass of the nation. The convention of north-south rotation of the presidency is not a fiction. It is the basis of stability in a nation that is predominantly Southern Christian and Northern Muslim.
In the current setting, Mr. Tinubu, a southern Muslim is in power. The only political competition he can face can only be from a southern politician. In other words, political contests every eight years in the context of the rotational north-south convention can only be localized within the same geo-strategic region. Atiku’s current presidential ambition is a blatant violation of this convention.
Secondly, given his current age (80 in November), Atiku is outside the tolerable age perimeter of those who lead the current opposition pressure. Beyond that, he has been too much a part of the partisan yo -yo of recent politics to be taken seriously. Atiku has made too many political somersaults, changed parties too frequently and therefore perspectives and convictions ever so often to be held responsible for any perceivable slant on Nigeria’s problems. Ordinarily, the ideal direction for Atiku Abubakar at this moment in time is towards a merited retirement. It is hard to exonerate Atiku from the collapse that awaits the ADC proposition as an opposition platform.
In his statement justifying his exit from the ADC coalition, Peter Obi pointed at the purported infiltration of the ADC by the forces of the APC-led Nigerian state. Since then, various versions of the grand conspiracy to stop Obi and Kwakwanso have emerged.
One devious version is that the ADC may have been an arrangement between President Tinubu and Mr. Atiku to help the latter recover financially after the heavy toll his finances took under Buhari who literally was bent on impoverishing Atiku. This mischievous conspiracy theory goes on to insist that Atiku’s mission in the 2027 election season is merely to help Tinubu demolish Peter Obi’s threat by whittling down his vote count and giving Tinubu a much clearer win than in 2023.
The conspiracy theory indicates that Tinubu may have already promised Atiku certain ‘lucrative’ portfolios in his second term administration in addition to a handsome upfront down payment. This may well be a wild conspiracy theory with no factual basis. But for whatever it may be worth, the scheme and Atiku’s own presidential ambition would seem to have landed short of its runway.
The ADC as a party may still survive as a shell like the other many useless parties in the INEC register. But as a credible and frightening opposition platform, its hour has passed. It will not just disappear. It will go ahead to field inconsequential candidates with a manifesto that appears to differ from Tinubu’s lack -lustre agenda. But it has lost its originating appeal and potential. In Nigerian politics, a party platform is as good as the names behind it and their political gravity. Without Obi and Kwakwanso, the ADC is dead on arrival as an opposition platform.
Public response to the migration of Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwakwanso has therefore been predictable. The duo were the life blood of the ADC and the opposition on account of their popular followership. Many have blamed Obi for this latest switch of party after he earlier left the Labour Party. Some have even seen Obi’s party migrations as indications of excessive ambition and an unwillingness to be a team player. That is a defective reading.
Obi has grown into an undeniable leadership stature in the country. His vast followership cannot see him in any role less than that of a presidential candidate. Therefore, it would be political suicide for Obi to join any party that would offer him anything less than a presidential ticket. The ADC as conceived was likely to humiliate him into a lesser role. It is therefore heroic of Obi to see the danger ahead and quit as and when he did.
In politics as in real life, heroism is not walking head on into an oncoming train. Nor is political bravery measured by walking blindly into a destructive trap set by vicious adversaries. On the other hand, the wise politician is the wily fellow who avoids all snares, traps, evil schemes of his adversaries and survives politically to advance his ambition and prosecute his vision to his desired victory point. Even if he does not win the race, let it be said that he led the charge in front of those who see him as leader.
The majority of those who have been castigating Obi for quitting the ADC are partisans who were waiting to deny Obi the party’s presidential ticket in order to douse his popularity and extinguish him politically. But the man had the foresight to fly over the cuckoo’s nest. With the exit of Obi and Kwakwanso, the fire is out of the ADC’s projected opposition train.
Interestingly, there has been little or no word against Mr. Atiku Abubakar whose lifelong presidential ambition has wrecked nearly every party that hosted him. Similarly, there has hardly been any condemnation of the antics of President Tinubu and the ruling party who have invested heavily in destabilizing and destroying rival political parties. This in itself is a direct destructive assault on multi-party democracy.
Since the recent upheaval in the political opposition landscape, a rash of conspiracy theories have invaded the air. Social media and beer parlor channels have taken over political intelligence. In his statement justifying his migration to the NDC, Peter Obi hinted that the ADC coalition had already been infiltrated by the virus of old Nigerian politics. In other words, the ADC had been invaded by agents of the incumbent administration.
Beer parlor informants who are ready to swear by all unlicensed deities further have it that Mr. Atiku has no interest in the 2027 presidential election beyond his personal financial rehabilitation. No one can confirm or deny this unkind theory.
Another conspiracy theory is that a wing in the ill-fated ADC is out to humiliate both Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar by denying both the presidential ticket of the party. This faction, led by opposition figures from the South West, are said to be bank- rolled by the incumbent administration with a limitless budget. The strategy is to make 2027 a South West versus South West contest with a view to making President Tinubu the consensus candidate. Under this scheme, both Governor Makinde and Rauf Aregbesola are to choose running mates from the North for full effect. Whichever of them wins the ADC ticket will face Tinubu in something akin to Olu Falae versus Olusegun Obasanjo (1999) contest!
Nigeria’s presidential election is a grand casino. Whoever wins the election will get to occupy the most powerful political office in Africa. It is an unlimited license to incredible power, influence and cash. In pursuit of that office, no conspiracy is too far- fetched. In fact, political conspiracy is in itself a virile lucrative sector of the Nigerian political industry. We are right in the midst of the conspiracy season in Nigeria’s unusual political culture.
OPINION
Oyo School Abductions: Time for Concrete Action Against Terrorism
By Tochukwu Jimo Obi
The recent kidnapping of students and teachers in Oriire Local Government Area of Oyo State has once again exposed the frightening state of insecurity confronting Nigeria. Condemnations have continued to trail Friday’s bandits’ attack on three schools in the area, where an unspecified number of students and teachers were abducted, while two persons were reportedly killed.
The tragedy has left families devastated and communities gripped by fear, as another painful chapter is added to the growing list of violent attacks across the country.The attack, which occurred on May 16, saw armed bandits storm the community and abduct staff, students, and pupils from three schools; Community Grammar School, Baptist Nursery and Primary School, and L.
A. Primary School. Eyewitness accounts revealed that the attackers operated for hours without resistance, moving freely through the area while terrified residents watched helplessly. The incident has raised serious concerns about the safety of schools and the preparedness of security agencies to respond swiftly to emergencies.Worst of all, one of the teachers kidnapped during the attack was reportedly beheaded by the terrorists, a horrifying development that has deepened public outrage. Such brutality underscores the dangerous evolution of criminal activities in Nigeria, where terrorists and bandits now operate with alarming boldness and cruelty. The gruesome killing has further strengthened calls for urgent and decisive action from government authorities at all levels.
This unfortunate incident of school attacks is happening yet again despite repeated assurances from security agencies that schools across the country are safe. Nigerians have continued to hear promises of improved intelligence gathering, stronger patrols, and enhanced protection for vulnerable communities, yet attacks persist with devastating consequences. The contradiction between official assurances and the reality on the ground has weakened public confidence in the nation’s security architecture.
Another disturbing trend is that insecurity is rapidly spreading into the South-West region, an area once considered relatively safer compared to other parts of the country. Reports of Lakurawa terrorists and other armed groups establishing footholds in parts of the region have heightened fears that criminal networks are expanding their operations unchecked. The Oyo school kidnapping has therefore become more than a local tragedy; it is a warning sign that no region in Nigeria can afford to feel immune from terrorism and banditry.
Every now and then, government officials continue to assure citizens that security agencies are on top of the situation, yet many innocent people are still being killed and abducted with little or no arrests made afterward. More troubling is the fact that these attacks reportedly lasted for over two hours without any intervention from security operatives. This glaring security failure leaves Nigerians asking difficult but necessary questions about the nation’s emergency response capabilities.
How could terrorists, moving in large numbers on motorbikes, invade communities, abduct many people, and still escape without being tracked, stopped, or pursued effectively? What then are the military aircraft and advanced security equipment acquired with public funds meant for if they cannot be quickly deployed during emergencies? These are questions that citizens deserve answers to, especially as insecurity continues to consume lives and livelihoods across the country.
The Oyo incident has once again strengthened arguments for the establishment of state police across Nigeria. It is now obvious and evidently clear that the country’s centralized security structure requires urgent decentralization, similar to what operates in many secure nations around the world. State policing, if properly regulated and managed, could improve intelligence gathering, rapid response, and community-based security operations, particularly in rural areas that are often neglected under the current system.
It is no longer enough for leaders to merely condemn these attacks without taking concrete and sustained actions to secure the nation. President Bola Tinubu, as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, must urgently engage all stakeholders in the security sector, including international partners where necessary, to ensure that these terrorists are decisively defeated.
Government must also ensure that budgeted funds meant for security agencies, especially for the purchase of military hardware and equipment, are fully released and properly utilized. Beyond military action, authorities must intensify efforts to prevent the recruitment of vulnerable youths into criminal and terrorist groups. Nigerians are tired of mourning innocent victims. These killings must stop.
Tochukwu Jimo Obi, a concerned Nigerian writes from Obosi Anambra state.
OPINION
Museveni’s Seventh Term and Africa’s Gerontocracy Debate
By Fortune Abang
Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni, 81, sworn in for a seventh term after nearly four decades in power, has once again intensified debate over gerontocracy and political succession in Africa.
Museveni, who first assumed office in 1986, has now extended his rule into a fifth decade, making him one of the world’s longest-serving heads of state.
His latest mandate, expected to run until 2031, follows the January 2026 election in which he secured about 71.65 per cent of the vote, according to official results, defeating opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi, popularly known as Bobi Wine.
His continued stay in power has been enabled by key constitutional changes over time, including the removal of presidential term limits in 2005 and the abolition of the presidential age ceiling in 2017, reforms that effectively removed legal restrictions on tenure.
Across Africa, analysts say Uganda reflects a broader governance pattern in which long-serving leaders consolidate authority over extended periods.
Comparable examples often cited include Cameroon’s Paul Biya, in power since 1982, and Congo-Brazzaville’s Denis Sassou Nguesso, who first assumed office in 1979, both of whom have also presided over decades of uninterrupted or repeatedly renewed rule.
While Museveni’s supporters argue that his leadership has provided continuity and relative stability in a region frequently affected by conflict, critics say prolonged incumbency has gradually narrowed political competition and weakened institutional independence.
Uganda has maintained a degree of internal stability and played active roles in regional diplomacy and security operations in East and Central Africa.
Supporters point to these outcomes as evidence that long-term leadership can deliver policy continuity and state cohesion.
However, opposition voices and analysts argue that stability has come at a democratic cost, pointing to declining electoral competitiveness, constrained civic space and increasing centralisation of power around the executive.
The debate intensified after the removal of presidential term limits in 2005, followed by the scrapping of the age ceiling in 2017, which together removed two major constitutional barriers to leadership rotation.
These changes have been widely cited by governance analysts as pivotal in reshaping Uganda’s democratic structure.
In the January 2026 election, Museveni again defeated Bobi Wine, who garnered roughly 24.7 per cent of the vote, amid allegations from the opposition of irregularities and political repression during the electoral process.
Supporters of Museveni argue that his long rule has enabled economic transformation, infrastructure development and strengthened Uganda’s role in regional diplomacy.
Some regional leaders, including Burundi’s President Évariste Ndayishimiye, have previously described him as a stabilising figure in East Africa, crediting Uganda with supporting peace processes and regional cooperation.
Yet, critics argue that prolonged rule risks institutional stagnation, where governance structures become overly dependent on individual leadership rather than strong, independent institutions.
Analysts warn that this can weaken succession systems and limit democratic renewal.
A foreign policy analyst, speaking anonymously, said prolonged leadership can normalise “institutional dependence on individuals rather than systems,” arguing that such conditions undermine long-term democratic consolidation.
“No nation can sustainably develop when power remains concentrated in the same hands for decades while institutions fail to mature independently,” he said.
Beyond Uganda, Africa continues to record some of the world’s longest-serving leaders, reinforcing concerns about generational turnover in governance.
In several of these systems, electoral competition remains limited and constitutional reforms have often coincided with extended presidential tenure.
Foreign affairs commentator Collins Nweke argues that the central issue is not age itself, but accountability and leadership renewal, noting that political systems weaken when succession is delayed or constrained.
Other analysts emphasise the importance of civic awareness and institutional safeguards, particularly term limits, which they describe as critical tools for preventing excessive concentration of power.
A diplomat, also speaking on condition of anonymity, called for stronger electoral transparency mechanisms, including credible voter registration systems, independent election management bodies, and robust domestic and international observation frameworks.
An academic, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said stronger civic awareness could help societies resist unconstitutional tenure elongation.
“When citizens are politically informed and organised, sit-tight ambitions lose legitimacy and public support,” he said.
Museveni’s seventh term therefore reflects a wider continental tension between political continuity and democratic renewal, raising questions about whether African democracies are evolving toward stronger institutions or settling into prolonged cycles of personalised rule.
For supporters, his leadership represents stability in a volatile region.
For critics, it signals the entrenchment of gerontocracy and weakening democratic competition.
Between these positions lies a structural challenge that extends beyond Uganda; whether institutions in African states are strong enough to outlast individuals and guarantee orderly political succession. (NAN)
OPINION
Driving Africa’s Fair Energy Transition through Technology and Innovation
By Bart Nnaji
Africa’s energy journey is often portrayed as a stark choice between climate responsibility and development. In reality, the continent faces a more nuanced challenge: finding a fair, gradual energy transition that matches its unique needs and ambitions.
Technology and innovation can drive this change, helping secure affordable and sustainable energy for all.In the coming decades, Africa’s population is expected to soar to nearly 2.5 billion. Cities will grow. Industries will expand. Digital connections will multiply. The demand for energy will increase significantly.
Right now, expecting Africa to abandon fossil fuels overnight is neither realistic nor fair. In the near future, fossil fuels remain crucial for base power that is reliable, and affordable. In particular, natural gas is key transition fuel that will remain the base power solution for the next decade. Africa must not embrace renewable energy primarily when they have abundance of fossil fuel for their industrialization as other emerging and emerged nations have done. A just energy transition recognises these realities and seeks ways to build cleaner, more resilient systems over time.Technology as the Enabler of Africa’s Energy Future
Exciting new technologies are already reshaping Africa’s energy landscape:
Decentralised solutions, like mini-grids, off-grid solar, and batteries, bring electricity to places traditional grids can’t reach. By 2030, these distributed renewables could provide most new connections in underserved communities.
Smart grids and AI-driven management can reduce waste. They help utilities serve people better.
Modern batteries ensure that solar and wind energy can be delivered steadily, even when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing.
Decentralised approaches are essential to Africa’s path toward universal energy access. While technology is not a fix-all solution, it is a crucial enabler of efficiency, resilience, and affordability, shaping Africa’s energy future.
African entrepreneurs are leading much of this change. They’re developing solutions that meet local needs, such as pay-as-you-go solar, community-run mini-grids, and mobile payment platforms. These innovations don’t just bring power; they create jobs, build skills, and reap economic benefits for the continent.
But innovation alone isn’t enough. Investment is critical. According to the International Energy Agency, Africa needs about $90 billion annually to achieve a successful energy transition, but current funding falls short. Governments can help by setting clear, supportive policies that attract investment and make projects more affordable. Organisations like the African Development Bank say grid investment must rise dramatically, and clean energy spending should double by 2030 to keep up with growing demand.
From Energy Access to Economic and Human Impact
Reliable energy is more than just a technical necessity – it’s what fuels industrial growth. Picture the continent’s factories buzzing with activity, transport networks connecting people and goods, and data centres powering a vibrant digital economy.
Expanding decentralised solutions brings light to places that have been left in the dark for too long. It’s about giving children a place to study at night, helping clinics store vaccines safely, and empowering entrepreneurs to launch new businesses.
Of course, none of this works in isolation. Supportive policies, strong regulations, and partnerships between governments and private companies are essential. When African countries harmonise their rules and work together, they can create bigger markets. This draws even more investment and innovation.
Ultimately, Africa’s energy transition must be shaped by Africans themselves. The path forward is about collaboration, pragmatism, and investing in homegrown solutions. Africa’s mobile phone revolution showed the world how quickly the continent can leapfrog old systems. The same can happen with energy; by embracing flexible, tech-driven models that serve today’s and tomorrow’s needs.
Now is the time to come together to act boldly and invest in Africa’s energy future. By uniting efforts, we can turn potential into progress, ensuring resilient, inclusive, and sustainable energy for generations to come. Let’s power Africa’s future, together.
Prof. Bart O. Nnaji FAS, FA Eng. CON, NNOM – Founder/Chairman, Geometric Power Limited and former Nigerian Minister of Power


