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OPINION

The Russo-Ukraine War and the Second Coming of Donald Trump

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By Jideofor Adibe

In my column last week, I discussed how Trump’s victory could impact on Africa, noting that his presidency might not be as bad for Africa as generally thought. This week I will explore further how his election as the 47th President of the United States could possibly affect the Russo-Ukraine war, which has been going on since February 2022.

The general assumption is that Trump would pursue a somewhat isolationist policy within the framework of his campaign slogan of “Make America Great Again (MAGA)” and that he would more likely pull all the funding for Ukraine.

During the campaign, Trump had derisively called Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky the greatest salesman in history, implying that he had through sheer marketing skills got more than he deserved from the US and other NATO members, who had been supporting his war efforts.
Trump had also suggested that he could impose a blanket 20 per cent tariff on all goods imported into the US, with a tariff of up to 60 per cent for Chinese products, and one as high as 2,000 per cent on vehicles built in Mexico. For the European Union, meanwhile, Trump has said the 27-nation bloc will pay a “big price” for not buying enough American exports.

Zelensky also reinforced this belief that the second coming of Trump might be bad news for Ukraine when, after a telephone conversation with Trump following the latter’s electoral victory over Kamala Harris, he told his countrymen and women that he was certain that the war with Russia would “end sooner” than it should have been once Donald Trump is sworn in as the president of the United States in January 2025. “It is certain that the war will end sooner with the policies of the team that will now lead the White House.

This is their approach, their promise to their citizens,” he was reported to have said in an interview with the Ukrainian media outlet, Suspilne. He added that Ukraine “must do everything so that this war ends next year, ends through diplomatic means.” 

It should be noted that the US has been the biggest arms supplier to Ukraine in the course of the war. For instance, between February 2022, when the war began, to the end of June 2024, America delivered or committed to deliver weapons and equipment worth $55.5 billion (£41.5 billion) to Ukraine, according to the German research organisation, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. At present, the momentum of the war seems to be with the Russians.

For instance, Russia is reportedly winning significant swathes of territory in eastern Ukraine. Russia’s recent seizure of the strategically important city of Vuhledar appears to have cleared the way for Moscow’s possible advances deeper into Ukraine.

It is also reported that Moscow is preparing for an offensive using about 10,000 North Korean soldiers and about 40,000 Russians in the Kursk region of Russia, where Ukrainian forces have been struggling to defend the territory they captured during the summer. With this picture in mind, it is understandable why there are apprehensions among Ukrainians and their supporters in the war.

The thinking appears to be that the country should use the remaining part of the supportive Biden presidency to do whatever they can to push back the Russians and strengthen their bargaining position before Trump becomes the substantive president in January 2025 and forces them to the negotiating table. Recently, it was announced that the Biden administration has allowed Ukraine to use long-range American missiles against targets in Russia, in a move that would mark a new round of tension in the war.

There is no doubt that Trump would like to reduce or drastically cut funding to Ukraine in keeping with his campaign promise of America First. There are however other considerations that might influence his decisions on the Ukraine war:

The first is that as he regards himself as the ultimate dealmaker, and is a very transactional politician, he might be open to being influenced by Ukraine or the Europeans, depending on the sort of ‘deal’ he is offered. The German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, who spoke with Trump after the US election, alluded to this when he reportedly told the German media that the incoming US leader had a “more nuanced” position on the war than was commonly assumed.

It has been suggested that Zelensky could offer two ‘deals’ to Trump: The first will be for Ukrainian troops to replace some American units in Europe after the war, in order to reduce the cost of America’s commitment to NATO. The second could be opening up some of Ukraine’s resources to the US and other Western allies. Offers such as these would however be contingent upon Ukraine winning the war and being admitted into NATO – which at present is far from certain.

The second consideration for Trump is geopolitical and geo strategic. South Korea, an American ally, has reportedly supplied hundreds of thousands of artillery shells to Ukraine via the United States and had also pledged a $2.3 billion low-interest loan to Kyiv. South Korea is the world’s 10th-largest arms exporter and its clients already include four nations that border Russia – Poland, Estonia, Finland and Norway. The South Korean systems are meant to supplement Patriots, the advanced American air defence systems.

It is said that the South Korean laser needs nothing but electricity – and could be deployed to the Ukrainian cities that have no Patriots or similar Western or Taiwanese air defence systems. A crucial question is whether Trump would be insensitive to deals entered with Kiev by its ally, South Korea, in his decision on how he wants the Ukrainian war to end or even in any decision to stop funding Ukraine’s war efforts.

Related to the above is the report that around 10,000 North Koreans, USA’s historical enemy, have joined the war on the Russian side, with the possibility of Belarus also joining. Following the axiom that the friend to my enemy is my enemy or at least not to be trusted, the increasing collaboration between North Korea and Russia is also a factor to be taken into consideration by Trump in his decision on the Russo-Ukraine war.

Similarly, claims by Ukraine’s Western allies in September that Iran, another enemy of the West, has sent short-range ballistic missiles to Russia in a major escalation – a claim Tehran has rejected as “completely baseless and false,” will be another consideration.

A third major consideration that could influence Trump’s decision is the Truman Doctrine that made it an article of faith during the Cold War for the US to seek to contain Soviet expansionism. There have been signs of America’s revival of the Truman Doctrine since the Putin presidency, especially after Russia’s annexation of the Crimea in 2014.

Russia has not hidden its desire to create a multipolar world in a bid to overthrow or whittle down the influence of the current Western dominated security and governance systems around the world.  Irrespective of the nature of the personal relationship between Putin and Trump, it is unlikely that Trump would not respond to a resurgent Russia’s attempt to whittle down its global influence.

As a dealmaker, Trump is likely to be looking for a deal which would reduce the US military presence in Europe, drastically cut the military assistance to Ukraine, and give Kiev a long term hope of joining NATO in exchange for territorial concessions to Russia. In this way, Trump would be able to publicly claim that he won the peace without undermining NATO and without making Russia appear the outright winner in any diplomatic negotiations to end the war.

However the war ends, it will be a mixed bag for the world and Africa globally. For instance, African countries that benefit from the current Western sanctions against Russia would have to re-adjust if Western sanctions are eased, while those that have been hurt by the sanctions, especially importers of wheat and fertilisers from Russia and Ukraine, may heave a sigh of relief.

Adibe is a professor of Political Science and International Relations at Nasarawa State University and founder of Adonis & Abbey Publishers (www.adonis-abbey.com). He can be reached at: 0705 807 8841 (WhatsApp and Text messages only).

OPINION

Oyo School Abductions: Time for Concrete Action Against Terrorism

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By Tochukwu Jimo Obi

The recent kidnapping of students and teachers in Oriire Local Government Area of Oyo State has once again exposed the frightening state of insecurity confronting Nigeria. Condemnations have continued to trail Friday’s bandits’ attack on three schools in the area, where an unspecified number of students and teachers were abducted, while two persons were reportedly killed.

The tragedy has left families devastated and communities gripped by fear, as another painful chapter is added to the growing list of violent attacks across the country.

The attack, which occurred on May 16, saw armed bandits storm the community and abduct staff, students, and pupils from three schools; Community Grammar School, Baptist Nursery and Primary School, and L.

A. Primary School. Eyewitness accounts revealed that the attackers operated for hours without resistance, moving freely through the area while terrified residents watched helplessly. The incident has raised serious concerns about the safety of schools and the preparedness of security agencies to respond swiftly to emergencies.

Worst of all, one of the teachers kidnapped during the attack was reportedly beheaded by the terrorists, a horrifying development that has deepened public outrage. Such brutality underscores the dangerous evolution of criminal activities in Nigeria, where terrorists and bandits now operate with alarming boldness and cruelty. The gruesome killing has further strengthened calls for urgent and decisive action from government authorities at all levels.

This unfortunate incident of school attacks is happening yet again despite repeated assurances from security agencies that schools across the country are safe. Nigerians have continued to hear promises of improved intelligence gathering, stronger patrols, and enhanced protection for vulnerable communities, yet attacks persist with devastating consequences. The contradiction between official assurances and the reality on the ground has weakened public confidence in the nation’s security architecture.

Another disturbing trend is that insecurity is rapidly spreading into the South-West region, an area once considered relatively safer compared to other parts of the country. Reports of Lakurawa terrorists and other armed groups establishing footholds in parts of the region have heightened fears that criminal networks are expanding their operations unchecked. The Oyo school kidnapping has therefore become more than a local tragedy; it is a warning sign that no region in Nigeria can afford to feel immune from terrorism and banditry.

Every now and then, government officials continue to assure citizens that security agencies are on top of the situation, yet many innocent people are still being killed and abducted with little or no arrests made afterward. More troubling is the fact that these attacks reportedly lasted for over two hours without any intervention from security operatives. This glaring security failure leaves Nigerians asking difficult but necessary questions about the nation’s emergency response capabilities.

How could terrorists, moving in large numbers on motorbikes, invade communities, abduct many people, and still escape without being tracked, stopped, or pursued effectively? What then are the military aircraft and advanced security equipment acquired with public funds meant for if they cannot be quickly deployed during emergencies? These are questions that citizens deserve answers to, especially as insecurity continues to consume lives and livelihoods across the country.

The Oyo incident has once again strengthened arguments for the establishment of state police across Nigeria. It is now obvious and evidently clear that the country’s centralized security structure requires urgent decentralization, similar to what operates in many secure nations around the world. State policing, if properly regulated and managed, could improve intelligence gathering, rapid response, and community-based security operations, particularly in rural areas that are often neglected under the current system.

It is no longer enough for leaders to merely condemn these attacks without taking concrete and sustained actions to secure the nation. President Bola Tinubu, as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, must urgently engage all stakeholders in the security sector, including international partners where necessary, to ensure that these terrorists are decisively defeated.

Government must also ensure that budgeted funds meant for security agencies, especially for the purchase of military hardware and equipment, are fully released and properly utilized. Beyond military action, authorities must intensify efforts to prevent the recruitment of vulnerable youths into criminal and terrorist groups. Nigerians are tired of mourning innocent victims. These killings must stop.

Tochukwu Jimo Obi, a concerned Nigerian writes from Obosi Anambra state.

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OPINION

Museveni’s Seventh Term and Africa’s Gerontocracy Debate

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By Fortune Abang

Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni, 81, sworn in for a seventh term after nearly four decades in power, has once again intensified debate over gerontocracy and political succession in Africa.

Museveni, who first assumed office in 1986, has now extended his rule into a fifth decade, making him one of the world’s longest-serving heads of state.

His latest mandate, expected to run until 2031, follows the January 2026 election in which he secured about 71.65 per cent of the vote, according to official results, defeating opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi, popularly known as Bobi Wine.

His continued stay in power has been enabled by key constitutional changes over time, including the removal of presidential term limits in 2005 and the abolition of the presidential age ceiling in 2017, reforms that effectively removed legal restrictions on tenure.

Across Africa, analysts say Uganda reflects a broader governance pattern in which long-serving leaders consolidate authority over extended periods.

Comparable examples often cited include Cameroon’s Paul Biya, in power since 1982, and Congo-Brazzaville’s Denis Sassou Nguesso, who first assumed office in 1979, both of whom have also presided over decades of uninterrupted or repeatedly renewed rule.

While Museveni’s supporters argue that his leadership has provided continuity and relative stability in a region frequently affected by conflict, critics say prolonged incumbency has gradually narrowed political competition and weakened institutional independence.

Uganda has maintained a degree of internal stability and played active roles in regional diplomacy and security operations in East and Central Africa.

Supporters point to these outcomes as evidence that long-term leadership can deliver policy continuity and state cohesion.

However, opposition voices and analysts argue that stability has come at a democratic cost, pointing to declining electoral competitiveness, constrained civic space and increasing centralisation of power around the executive.

The debate intensified after the removal of presidential term limits in 2005, followed by the scrapping of the age ceiling in 2017, which together removed two major constitutional barriers to leadership rotation.

These changes have been widely cited by governance analysts as pivotal in reshaping Uganda’s democratic structure.

In the January 2026 election, Museveni again defeated Bobi Wine, who garnered roughly 24.7 per cent of the vote, amid allegations from the opposition of irregularities and political repression during the electoral process.

Supporters of Museveni argue that his long rule has enabled economic transformation, infrastructure development and strengthened Uganda’s role in regional diplomacy.

Some regional leaders, including Burundi’s President Évariste Ndayishimiye, have previously described him as a stabilising figure in East Africa, crediting Uganda with supporting peace processes and regional cooperation.

Yet, critics argue that prolonged rule risks institutional stagnation, where governance structures become overly dependent on individual leadership rather than strong, independent institutions.

Analysts warn that this can weaken succession systems and limit democratic renewal.

A foreign policy analyst, speaking anonymously, said prolonged leadership can normalise “institutional dependence on individuals rather than systems,” arguing that such conditions undermine long-term democratic consolidation.

“No nation can sustainably develop when power remains concentrated in the same hands for decades while institutions fail to mature independently,” he said.

Beyond Uganda, Africa continues to record some of the world’s longest-serving leaders, reinforcing concerns about generational turnover in governance.

In several of these systems, electoral competition remains limited and constitutional reforms have often coincided with extended presidential tenure.

Foreign affairs commentator Collins Nweke argues that the central issue is not age itself, but accountability and leadership renewal, noting that political systems weaken when succession is delayed or constrained.

Other analysts emphasise the importance of civic awareness and institutional safeguards, particularly term limits, which they describe as critical tools for preventing excessive concentration of power.

A diplomat, also speaking on condition of anonymity, called for stronger electoral transparency mechanisms, including credible voter registration systems, independent election management bodies, and robust domestic and international observation frameworks.

An academic, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said stronger civic awareness could help societies resist unconstitutional tenure elongation.

“When citizens are politically informed and organised, sit-tight ambitions lose legitimacy and public support,” he said.

Museveni’s seventh term therefore reflects a wider continental tension between political continuity and democratic renewal, raising questions about whether African democracies are evolving toward stronger institutions or settling into prolonged cycles of personalised rule.

For supporters, his leadership represents stability in a volatile region.

For critics, it signals the entrenchment of gerontocracy and weakening democratic competition.

Between these positions lies a structural challenge that extends beyond Uganda; whether institutions in African states are strong enough to outlast individuals and guarantee orderly political succession. (NAN)

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OPINION

Driving Africa’s Fair Energy Transition through Technology and Innovation

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By Bart Nnaji

Africa’s energy journey is often portrayed as a stark choice between climate responsibility and development. In reality, the continent faces a more nuanced challenge: finding a fair, gradual energy transition that matches its unique needs and ambitions.

Technology and innovation can drive this change, helping secure affordable and sustainable energy for all.

In the coming decades, Africa’s population is expected to soar to nearly 2.5 billion. Cities will grow. Industries will expand. Digital connections will multiply. The demand for energy will increase significantly.

Right now, expecting Africa to abandon fossil fuels overnight is neither realistic nor fair. In the near future, fossil fuels remain crucial for base power that is reliable, and affordable. In particular, natural gas is key transition fuel that will remain the base power solution for the next decade. Africa must not embrace renewable energy primarily when they have abundance of fossil fuel for their industrialization as other emerging and emerged nations have done. A just energy transition recognises these realities and seeks ways to build cleaner, more resilient systems over time.

Technology as the Enabler of Africa’s Energy Future

Exciting new technologies are already reshaping Africa’s energy landscape:

Decentralised solutions, like mini-grids, off-grid solar, and batteries, bring electricity to places traditional grids can’t reach. By 2030, these distributed renewables could provide most new connections in underserved communities.

Smart grids and AI-driven management can reduce waste. They help utilities serve people better.

Modern batteries ensure that solar and wind energy can be delivered steadily, even when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing.

Decentralised approaches are essential to Africa’s path toward universal energy access. While technology is not a fix-all solution, it is a crucial enabler of efficiency, resilience, and affordability, shaping Africa’s energy future.

African entrepreneurs are leading much of this change. They’re developing solutions that meet local needs, such as pay-as-you-go solar, community-run mini-grids, and mobile payment platforms. These innovations don’t just bring power; they create jobs, build skills, and reap economic benefits for the continent.

But innovation alone isn’t enough. Investment is critical. According to the International Energy Agency, Africa needs about $90 billion annually to achieve a successful energy transition, but current funding falls short. Governments can help by setting clear, supportive policies that attract investment and make projects more affordable. Organisations like the African Development Bank say grid investment must rise dramatically, and clean energy spending should double by 2030 to keep up with growing demand.

From Energy Access to Economic and Human Impact

Reliable energy is more than just a technical necessity – it’s what fuels industrial growth. Picture the continent’s factories buzzing with activity, transport networks connecting people and goods, and data centres powering a vibrant digital economy.

Expanding decentralised solutions brings light to places that have been left in the dark for too long. It’s about giving children a place to study at night, helping clinics store vaccines safely, and empowering entrepreneurs to launch new businesses.

Of course, none of this works in isolation. Supportive policies, strong regulations, and partnerships between governments and private companies are essential. When African countries harmonise their rules and work together, they can create bigger markets. This draws even more investment and innovation.

Ultimately, Africa’s energy transition must be shaped by Africans themselves. The path forward is about collaboration, pragmatism, and investing in homegrown solutions. Africa’s mobile phone revolution showed the world how quickly the continent can leapfrog old systems. The same can happen with energy; by embracing flexible, tech-driven models that serve today’s and tomorrow’s needs.

Now is the time to come together to act boldly and invest in Africa’s energy future. By uniting efforts, we can turn potential into progress, ensuring resilient, inclusive, and sustainable energy for generations to come. Let’s power Africa’s future, together.

Prof. Bart O. Nnaji FAS, FA Eng. CON, NNOM – Founder/Chairman, Geometric Power Limited and former Nigerian Minister of Power

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