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OPINION

The Russo-Ukraine War and the Second Coming of Donald Trump

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By Jideofor Adibe

In my column last week, I discussed how Trump’s victory could impact on Africa, noting that his presidency might not be as bad for Africa as generally thought. This week I will explore further how his election as the 47th President of the United States could possibly affect the Russo-Ukraine war, which has been going on since February 2022.

The general assumption is that Trump would pursue a somewhat isolationist policy within the framework of his campaign slogan of “Make America Great Again (MAGA)” and that he would more likely pull all the funding for Ukraine.

During the campaign, Trump had derisively called Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky the greatest salesman in history, implying that he had through sheer marketing skills got more than he deserved from the US and other NATO members, who had been supporting his war efforts.
Trump had also suggested that he could impose a blanket 20 per cent tariff on all goods imported into the US, with a tariff of up to 60 per cent for Chinese products, and one as high as 2,000 per cent on vehicles built in Mexico. For the European Union, meanwhile, Trump has said the 27-nation bloc will pay a “big price” for not buying enough American exports.

Zelensky also reinforced this belief that the second coming of Trump might be bad news for Ukraine when, after a telephone conversation with Trump following the latter’s electoral victory over Kamala Harris, he told his countrymen and women that he was certain that the war with Russia would “end sooner” than it should have been once Donald Trump is sworn in as the president of the United States in January 2025. “It is certain that the war will end sooner with the policies of the team that will now lead the White House.

This is their approach, their promise to their citizens,” he was reported to have said in an interview with the Ukrainian media outlet, Suspilne. He added that Ukraine “must do everything so that this war ends next year, ends through diplomatic means.” 

It should be noted that the US has been the biggest arms supplier to Ukraine in the course of the war. For instance, between February 2022, when the war began, to the end of June 2024, America delivered or committed to deliver weapons and equipment worth $55.5 billion (£41.5 billion) to Ukraine, according to the German research organisation, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. At present, the momentum of the war seems to be with the Russians.

For instance, Russia is reportedly winning significant swathes of territory in eastern Ukraine. Russia’s recent seizure of the strategically important city of Vuhledar appears to have cleared the way for Moscow’s possible advances deeper into Ukraine.

It is also reported that Moscow is preparing for an offensive using about 10,000 North Korean soldiers and about 40,000 Russians in the Kursk region of Russia, where Ukrainian forces have been struggling to defend the territory they captured during the summer. With this picture in mind, it is understandable why there are apprehensions among Ukrainians and their supporters in the war.

The thinking appears to be that the country should use the remaining part of the supportive Biden presidency to do whatever they can to push back the Russians and strengthen their bargaining position before Trump becomes the substantive president in January 2025 and forces them to the negotiating table. Recently, it was announced that the Biden administration has allowed Ukraine to use long-range American missiles against targets in Russia, in a move that would mark a new round of tension in the war.

There is no doubt that Trump would like to reduce or drastically cut funding to Ukraine in keeping with his campaign promise of America First. There are however other considerations that might influence his decisions on the Ukraine war:

The first is that as he regards himself as the ultimate dealmaker, and is a very transactional politician, he might be open to being influenced by Ukraine or the Europeans, depending on the sort of ‘deal’ he is offered. The German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, who spoke with Trump after the US election, alluded to this when he reportedly told the German media that the incoming US leader had a “more nuanced” position on the war than was commonly assumed.

It has been suggested that Zelensky could offer two ‘deals’ to Trump: The first will be for Ukrainian troops to replace some American units in Europe after the war, in order to reduce the cost of America’s commitment to NATO. The second could be opening up some of Ukraine’s resources to the US and other Western allies. Offers such as these would however be contingent upon Ukraine winning the war and being admitted into NATO – which at present is far from certain.

The second consideration for Trump is geopolitical and geo strategic. South Korea, an American ally, has reportedly supplied hundreds of thousands of artillery shells to Ukraine via the United States and had also pledged a $2.3 billion low-interest loan to Kyiv. South Korea is the world’s 10th-largest arms exporter and its clients already include four nations that border Russia – Poland, Estonia, Finland and Norway. The South Korean systems are meant to supplement Patriots, the advanced American air defence systems.

It is said that the South Korean laser needs nothing but electricity – and could be deployed to the Ukrainian cities that have no Patriots or similar Western or Taiwanese air defence systems. A crucial question is whether Trump would be insensitive to deals entered with Kiev by its ally, South Korea, in his decision on how he wants the Ukrainian war to end or even in any decision to stop funding Ukraine’s war efforts.

Related to the above is the report that around 10,000 North Koreans, USA’s historical enemy, have joined the war on the Russian side, with the possibility of Belarus also joining. Following the axiom that the friend to my enemy is my enemy or at least not to be trusted, the increasing collaboration between North Korea and Russia is also a factor to be taken into consideration by Trump in his decision on the Russo-Ukraine war.

Similarly, claims by Ukraine’s Western allies in September that Iran, another enemy of the West, has sent short-range ballistic missiles to Russia in a major escalation – a claim Tehran has rejected as “completely baseless and false,” will be another consideration.

A third major consideration that could influence Trump’s decision is the Truman Doctrine that made it an article of faith during the Cold War for the US to seek to contain Soviet expansionism. There have been signs of America’s revival of the Truman Doctrine since the Putin presidency, especially after Russia’s annexation of the Crimea in 2014.

Russia has not hidden its desire to create a multipolar world in a bid to overthrow or whittle down the influence of the current Western dominated security and governance systems around the world.  Irrespective of the nature of the personal relationship between Putin and Trump, it is unlikely that Trump would not respond to a resurgent Russia’s attempt to whittle down its global influence.

As a dealmaker, Trump is likely to be looking for a deal which would reduce the US military presence in Europe, drastically cut the military assistance to Ukraine, and give Kiev a long term hope of joining NATO in exchange for territorial concessions to Russia. In this way, Trump would be able to publicly claim that he won the peace without undermining NATO and without making Russia appear the outright winner in any diplomatic negotiations to end the war.

However the war ends, it will be a mixed bag for the world and Africa globally. For instance, African countries that benefit from the current Western sanctions against Russia would have to re-adjust if Western sanctions are eased, while those that have been hurt by the sanctions, especially importers of wheat and fertilisers from Russia and Ukraine, may heave a sigh of relief.

Adibe is a professor of Political Science and International Relations at Nasarawa State University and founder of Adonis & Abbey Publishers (www.adonis-abbey.com). He can be reached at: 0705 807 8841 (WhatsApp and Text messages only).

OPINION

The David Mark and Atiku Abubakar ADC Protest: A Recycling of Bourgeoisie Metamorphosis

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By Uji Wilfred

Right from the foundations of the Independence struggle that led to self-rule, political party formations in Nigeria were crafted majorly for the capture of political power through periodic elections.

Political Parties never had ideological foundations that defined the boundaries of political recruitment and participation.

Political parties in their formation, leadership structure and ownership, belonged more to the ruling oligarchs than the people or the masses.

In the First Republic, political parties had little ideological bent, framed along regional and ethnic sentiments, but little of rallying the entire nation along in a unified polity.

In the general elections of 1954 – 1956, each of the ruling political party, the Northern People’s Congress, the Action Group and the National Council of Nigerian Citizens emerged as regional parties in terms of the demographic voting pattern as well as the control of political seats.

The First Republic suffered from a contradiction of centripetal and centrifugal forces within the framework of the tripartite system which eventually led to the collapse of that republic.

Political parties as well as the leadership recruitment reflected a regional and ethnic bias more than the need for the national integration of Nigeria.

Decamping across political lines, irrespective of ideological leanings, were the basic norms of the First Republic with political parties splitting out from the major political party. Formation of new political parties to fragment the dominant hold of ruling political parties were common political vices of the political class at that time. For example, Chief Akintola, despite the ideological soundness of the Action Group, splitted up the party with the formation of a new political party.

Chief Akintola’s desire was fired more by ambition than the issues of ideology and national interest.

In Northern Nigeria, the ruling Northern People’s Congress waged a war of suppression and dominance against other minority political parties with strong ideological bent that inspired minority ethnic nationalism.

The NPC through its slogan of One North, One Destiny, suppressed minority political parties such as the United Middle Belt Congress led by Joseph Tarkaa.

The point is that Nigeria from her foundations inherited a political culture where political parties have weak ideological roots as well as party and leadership recruitment.

Since 1999, Nigeria has witnessed the recycling of bourgeoisie Political Party Formation and leadership recruitment through a process of metamorphosis that defiles ideological lines and national interest.

Political participation and leadership recruitment has been centered on the urgent need to capture power at the center using political parties owned by a few powerful oligarchs.

The People’s Democratic Party in its formation and foundation was a fraternity of past and serving military generals and their civilian equivalent.

The PDP since its inception has been led by past military officers like David Mark and Atiku Abubakar, the civilian equivalent of the military.

The dream of the PDP led by these retired military generals under the leadership of former President Olusegun Obasanjo was the enthronement of Africa’s biggest political party that was to last for a century.

As good as the dream of the party was, the PDP, like the experience of the First and Second Republics lacked deep ideological roots that defined the boundaries of political recruitment and participation.

The triumph of the People’s Democratic Party forced the rival All People’s Party and the Action Congress of Nigeria into a state of collapse and submission leading up to the bourgeoisie metamorphosis that resulted to the formation of the All Progressive Congress on the eve of 2015 with the sole objective to unseat President Good luck Jonathan.

The APC was a metamorphosis and amalgamation of opposition parties including some dissenting faction of the PDP to reclaim the so called birth right of the far right North in Nigeria to produce the President of Nigeria.

Political recruitment and leadership struggle in Nigeria has never been defined by ideological needs to salvage or emancipate Nigeria as a nation. Political struggle has always been a recycling of that section of the bourgeoisie, through a process of metamorphosis, whose objective is to capture political power at the center.

The present protest and political struggle by the African Democratic Congress, the faction led by David Mark and Atiku Abubakar, is a recycling of bourgeoisie metamorphosis not too different from the experience of 2015.

At best, the David Mark and Atiku Abubakar led protest represents that desperate struggle entrenched in the thinking of the Far Right of Far Northern Nigeria, that political leadership resides in the ancestral birth right of the aristocratic ruling political class of the North.

David Mark and Atiku Abubakar perhaps are suffering from a dementia that has made them forget that they were the agents that destroyed the foundations of democracy in Nigeria through the sacking of former President Good luck Jonathan of the People’s Democratic Party.

These men formed the All Progressive Congress and wrestled power from a democratic government exploiting the dynamics of national security and developmental challenges.

In 2015, Nigerians believed their opinions and through the ballot removed Good luck Jonathan.

However, since then, has Nigeria fared better under the APC that was enthroned by oligarchs leading in the present protest under the auspices of the ADC.

Perhaps, David Mark and Atiku Abubakar may assume that Nigeria suffers from a collective dementia that has forgotten the past so soon.

There is an adage that says, he who comes to justice and equity must come with clean hands. The same forces that enthroned bad governance in Nigeria factored in the APC, through a metamorphosis, want to rebirth another Nigeria through the ADC.

In ideological terms, this does not make sense, the ADC Protest is the same old thing of old wine in a new wine bottle.

If Nigeria must experience a change, let it come through some revolutionary medium that will not exploit the people’s trust and betray them once in power.

Over the past decades, the betrayal of public trust, exploiting the innocence of the people, perhaps the naivety of the people, is what we have seen and experienced through the circles of bourgeoisie metamorphosis and political leadership recruitment.

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OPINION

Where the Politicians Got it Wrong

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By Raphael Atuu

Benue State, fondly referred to as the “Food Basket of the Nation,” was created on February 3, 1976, by the military administration, carved out of the old Plateau State. From its inception, the state was administered by a succession of military administrators, followed by civilian governors in Nigeria’s evolving political landscape.

Over the decades, leadership passed through several hands each leaving varying degrees of impact on the state’s trajectory.

In its early years, Benue was widely regarded as a peaceful and united society. Communities coexisted in harmony, bound by shared values, cultural pride, and a strong sense of collective identity.

The economy was largely driven by agriculture, with fertile lands producing yams, rice, cassava, and other staple crops. Institutions like the Benue Cement Company also contributed to economic activity and employment.

In those days, the government was distant from the daily struggle of the average citizen. Few people concerned themselves with the affairs of Government House. Wealth and dignity were derived from hard work, farming, trading, and craftsmanship not political patronage.

The people spoke with one voice, celebrated their traditions with pride, and upheld communal respect as a guiding principle.

However, the return of democracy in 1999 marked a significant turning point, one that would reshape the state’s social and political fabric in ways few anticipated.

With democratic governance came new opportunities, but also new challenges. Politics gradually became the most attractive path to wealth and influence.

For many, Government House transformed from a symbol of public service into a gateway to personal enrichment.

The perception of politics shifted from service to self-interest.

As political competition intensified, unity began to erode. Divisions along ethnic, local government, and party lines deepened. The once cohesive voice of the Benue people became fragmented, often drowned in partisan conflicts and power struggles.

Perhaps more troubling was the subtle transformation in societal values.

 The Benue man, once admired for courage, resilience, and industry, began though not universally to exhibit tendencies toward dependency and political loyalty over merit.

Sycophancy started to replace integrity, and the dignity of labor was gradually overshadowed by the allure of quick gains through political connections.

Elected officials rose to positions of authority and influence, becoming key decision-makers in society.

 Yet, for many citizens, the dividends of democracy remained elusive. Infrastructure development lagged, agricultural potential remained underutilized, and poverty persisted despite abundant natural resources.

The irony is striking: a state so richly endowed, yet struggling to translate its potential into tangible progress.

Beyond economics, insecurity and communal clashes in recent years have further strained the social fabric.

 The peace that once defined Benue has been challenged, forcing many communities to confront displacement and uncertainty.

While these issues are complex and multifaceted, the role of political leadership in addressing or failing to address them cannot be ignored.

So, where did the politicians get it wrong?

They lost sight of the essence of leadership service to the people. Governance became more about control than development, more about personal gain than collective good.

 Long term planning gave way to short term political calculations. Investments in agriculture, which should have remained the backbone of the state’s economy, were neglected in favor of less sustainable ventures.

Moreover, the failure to foster unity and inclusive governance widened the gap between leaders and the led. Politics became a tool for division rather than a platform for progress.

Yet, all hope is not lost.

Benue still possesses immense potential, fertile land, vibrant culture, and resilient people, what is needed is a return to the values that once defined the state: hard work, unity, integrity, and community driven development.

 Leadership must be reimagined, not as an avenue for wealth, but as a responsibility to uplift the people.

The story of Benue State is not just one of decline it is also one of possibility.

 With the right vision, commitment, and collective will, the state can reclaim its place as a model of peace, productivity, and progress.

The question remains: will its leaders and its people rise to the occasion?

If you want, I can.

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OPINION

Nigeria Not Collapsing, Recalibrating Unsustainable System

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By Tanimu Yakubu

Nigeria is not collapsing; it is confronting long-avoided economic realities. The current hardship, though undeniable, reflects a deliberate process of correcting structural imbalances that have persisted for years. Distress is evident, but it must not be mistaken for systemic failure.

Countries in true economic collapse do not unify exchange rates, rebuild external reserves, regain access to international capital markets, or improve fiscal performance.

Nigeria, despite significant pressures, is making measurable progress across these indicators.

Ending a Distorted Economic Order

For years, Nigeria operated under an economic framework that projected stability while masking deep inefficiencies.

Artificially suppressed fuel prices, multiple exchange rate windows, and expansionary fiscal practices incentivized arbitrage over productivity.

These distortions disproportionately benefited a narrow segment of the population while imposing hidden costs on the broader economy.

Their removal has revealed the true cost structure of the system. While this transition has triggered inflationary pressures, it has also restored policy transparency and enhanced the credibility of economic management.

Strengthening the Fiscal Base

Recent fiscal data indicates a strengthening foundation. Distributable revenues to the Federation Account have risen by over 40 percent following subsidy removal, reflecting improved remittance discipline and reduced leakages.

Nigeria’s public debt remains below 30 percent of GDP, a relatively moderate level compared to peer emerging markets, according to the International Monetary Fund. Meanwhile, external reserves have surpassed $40 billion, based on figures from the Central Bank of Nigeria.

At the subnational level, increased fiscal inflows are enabling more consistent salary payments, with some states introducing inflation adjustments, an indication of gradually expanding fiscal space.

Inflation: A Transitional Challenge

Inflation remains the most immediate and visible consequence of ongoing reforms. It is being driven by exchange rate adjustments, energy price corrections, and longstanding supply-side constraints.

Global experience suggests that such inflationary spikes are often temporary when reforms are sustained. The greater risk lies not in reform itself, but in policy inconsistency or reversal.

Interpreting the Present Moment

Public frustration is both expected and understandable. Nigerians are justified in demanding tangible improvements in living standards. However, it is important to distinguish between short-term hardship and systemic collapse.

Nigeria’s institutional framework remains intact, fiscal capacity is improving, and macroeconomic reforms are actively progressing. This phase represents adjustment, not disintegration.

From Stabilisation to Impact

The next phase of reform must translate macroeconomic gains into measurable improvements in citizens’ welfare.

Strategic investments in healthcare, education, and targeted social protection will be essential to sustaining public confidence.

Ultimately, the credibility of these reforms will be judged not by policy intent, but by their impact on everyday life.

Conclusion: The Imperative of Consistency

Nigeria has long recognised its economic challenges; what has often been lacking is sustained policy execution. The greatest threat at this juncture is not reform fatigue, but reform reversal.

Abandoning the current course would erode credibility, deter investment, and reintroduce the very distortions that hindered growth.

This moment demands patience, discipline, and resolve. Nigeria is not collapsing, it is undertaking a necessary correction and laying the foundation for a more resilient economic future.

Tanimu Yakubu is DG, Budget Office of the Federation.

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